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BoE: Rates on hold, approved by 7 to 2

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) – The decision to keep interest rates on hold was approved by 7 votes against 2 at the BoE’s Monetary Policy Meeting held last week, with external members Tim Besley and Andrew Sentence voting for a 25 basis points interest rise, according to the minutes of the meeting.

Unexpectedly, David Blanchflower joined the majority on keeping rates on hold, when in March voted for a 25 basis points rate cut. The minutes show an expanding hawkish camp, although no changer on rates was decided.

According to the minutes, the uncertainty on US economy influenced the voting: “"For some members, there was no compelling case for a change in interest rates this month. For these members there were particular uncertainties about the outlook for the U.S. economy and for U.K. consumption."

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دولار -ين
ممكن بيع -ممكن شراء
به اسباب شراء من مناطق موضحه بالتشارتات
و ايضا اسباب بيع موضحه بالتشارتات
تحليل تعليمى
تحياتى للجميع
سليل عائله دعبس

[سمير صيام]

دولار -ين
ممكن بيع -ممكن شراء
به اسباب شراء من مناطق موضحه بالتشارتات
و ايضا اسباب بيع موضحه بالتشارتات
تحليل تعليمى
تحياتى للجميع
سليل عائله دعبس

مع وجود الدايفرجنس الايجابى يكون الشراء اقوى
الترند اليومى تقريبا عند 117.75 اذن الدخول بيع من هنا غير محبذ
راى الشخص الانتظار شراء من 117.75 لانه مع الترند ولا دخول للبيع الا لو صعد للترند الهابط على اليومى او كسر الترند الصاعد الحالى

[hadi75m]

بالنسبه للين لا احبه ولا احب اشاهده على الشارت ولكن نشارك معكم
اعتقد انه تكون نموذج رأس وكتفين على الويكلى ولصحه هذا النموذج لابد وان يكسر الدعم عند 115 وبالتالى سيكون هدفه الى 108
ولكن امامه محطات قويه اولها كسر الترند الصاعد عند تقريبا 116 على الويكلى ومن ثم كسر 115
وهناك نموذج مثلث بكسره سيكون هدفه اقل من 110
وقابلونى بعد 3 شهورسيكون الدولار ب 110 ين
ان شاء الله

[شريف دعبس]

مع وجود الدايفرجنس الايجابى يكون الشراء اقوى
الترند اليومى تقريبا عند 117.75 اذن الدخول بيع من هنا غير محبذ
راى الشخص الانتظار شراء من 117.75 لانه مع الترند ولا دخول للبيع الا لو صعد للترند الهابط على اليومى او كسر الترند الساعد الحالى

تمام ياغالى وهو انكسر فعلا وننتظر الاغلاق فوق الكسر

[شريف دعبس]

بالنسبه للين لا احبه ولا احب اشاهده على الشارت ولكن نشارك معكم
اعتقد انه تكون نموذج رأس وكتفين على الويكلى ولصحه هذا النموذج لابد وان يكسر الدعم عند 115 وبالتالى سيكون هدفه الى 108
ولكن امامه محطات قويه اولها كسر الترند الصاعد عند تقريبا 116 على الويكلى ومن ثم كسر 115
وهناك نموذج مثلث بكسره سيكون هدفه اقل من 110
وقابلونى بعد 3 شهورسيكون الدولار ب 110 ين
ان شاء الله

تمام النموذج لسه فى اطار التكوين بس لسه بدرى و فيه نموذج مثلث صاعد ينتظر الكسر و عنده الصعود الكبير
ولسه بدرى
كلمه السر
الكارى تريد


تحياتى ليك مع اطيب الامانى بالتوفيق

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FXA Technical Commentary

$ index continues its choppy trade

Tue, 10 Apr 2007 07:34:56 GMT
by David Solin

$ index continues its choppy trade over the last few weeks and may be forming a falling wedge (see daily chart below), a bottoming/reversal pattern that generally resolves sharply higher. Currently, the market is trading just below the ceiling (currently 83.15/20), but some risk remains for more chopping within the pattern and even a retest of the base first (currently 82.50/60, also just below last week’s low and the bullish trendline since Dec 2004). For now, would either buy on a close above the ceiling of the wedge or another approach of the base. Resistance/targets above the ceiling is at the late March high at 83.45/50 (also 50% from the Mar 9th high at 84.35) and the bearish trendline since March 2006 (currently at 84.20).



Longer term, the view is unchanged as the market remains within the wide 80.40/92.60 range since Dec 2004. With no signs that this multi-year period of consolidating is complete, there is scope for at least another few months (and likely longer) of wide ranging and even an eventual retest of the ceiling of the range at 92.60 (see weekly chart/2nd chart below). Note too the 5 wave rally from the 80.40 also suggests an eventual retest of 92.60 in the longer term (longer term upside not “complete”). Currently, with the market nearing the base of the large range, it’s clearly not the time to consider shorting for the longer term, but instead would be looking for signs of an important bottom to buy. Note that within this scenario there is scope for further new lows as part of a larger bottoming and for now, would just stay patient with the expectations of a very good, longer term buying opportunity ahead. Important support is at the 82.50/60 area (see above) with the Dec 2006 low at 82.25 and the year long falling support line (currently at 81.35/50) after.

[سمير صيام]

تحليل دولار ين

[سمير صيام]

Currency Majors Technical Analysis EUR/USD - Euro Dollar

Short term (Intraday)

1,3587. EUR USD is in an uptrend supported by 1H exponential moving averages. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. ForexTrend 4H, daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bullish pressure on EUR USD. The price should consolidate. The price should find a resistance below 1,3620. We won't take a position. The risk/reward ratio is too high to take a position..

Resistances

1,3600 - 1,3620

Supports

1,3570 - 1,3525
USD/CHF - Dollar Swiss Franc

Short term (Intraday)

1,2021. USD CHF is in an downtrend directed by 1H exponential moving averages. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are parallel and form the trend. ForexTrend 1H, 4H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bearish configuration. 1H, 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bearish pressure on USD CHF. The downtrend should continue to gather momentum. The target is expected at 1,1900.

=> We could take a short position at 1,2020. We will put the stop loss above 1,2050 (-30 pips). The targets are 1,1980 ( 40 pips) 1,1950 ( 70 pips) 1,1900 ( 120 pips). Each trade is dangerous, take care and put your stop loss. Trade configuration (1 Speculative -> 4 Trend following): 3.

Resistances

1,2030 - 1,2005

Supports

1,2000 - 1,1985
USD/JPY - Dollar Yen

Short term (Intraday)

117,92. USD JPY broke 118,20 support. USD JPY broke the uptrend to begin a bearish movement. The volatility rises. ForexTrend 1H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bearish configuration. 1H, 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bearish pressure on USD JPY. The downtrend should continue to gather momentum. The target is expected at 116,00.

=> We could take a short position at 117,90. We will put the stop loss above 118,20 (-30 pips). The targets are 117,20 ( 70 pips) 116,50 ( 140 pips) 116,00 ( 190 pips). Each trade is dangerous, take care and put your stop loss. Trade configuration (1 Speculative -> 4 Trend following): 2.

Resistances

118,00 - 118,20 - 118,50

Supports

117,80 - 117,65 - 117,20
GBP/USD - British Pound Dollar

Short term (Intraday)

2,0031. GBP USD is in an uptrend supported by 1H exponential moving averages. GBP USD is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. ForexTrend 4H, daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. 1H, 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) crosses and gives a negative signal. The price should continue to consolidate. The price should continue to move in 2,0000 / 2,0100 range. If the support is broken then the target will be 1,9900. We won't take a position. The risk/reward ratio is too high to take a position..

Resistances

2,0075 - 2,0100

Supports

2,0000 - 1,9960
USD/CAD - US Dollar Canadian Dollar

Short term (Intraday)

1,1302. USD CAD is in an downtrend directed by 1H exponential moving averages. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are parallel and form the trend. ForexTrend 4H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bearish configuration. 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bearish pressure on USD CAD. The downtrend should continue to gather momentum. The target is expected at 1,1000.

=> We could take a short position at 1,1305. We will put the stop loss above 1,1335 (-30 pips). The targets are 1,1250 ( 55 pips) 1,1220 ( 85 pips) 1,1200 ( 105 pips). Each trade is dangerous, take care and put your stop loss. Trade configuration (1 Speculative -> 4 Trend following): 4.

Resistances

1,1310 - 1,1330

Supports

1,1270 - 1,1250

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Forex Daily Technical Report

Yen Rebounds, Risk Aversion Back

The Japanese yen continues to rebound across the board today on a couple of yen bullish factors. Firstly, there are rumors that China's delay its GDP release due to much stronger than forecast numbers and could prompt the PBoC to raise interest rates. The Shanghai stock index is hit down by 4% on such rumor and yen has benefited on risk aversion buying. Secondly, there are also continuous speculation that BoJ will raise interest rates again in May, in particular after today's strong data today which showed Japan's tertiary sector index increased by 1.0% mom in Feb, much better than forecast of -0.4% drop. This is taken as a sign of turnaround in the sluggish services sector.

Technically speaking, both USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is showing sign of short term reversal. More importantly, after failing to take out resistance levels, the risk of a larger scale fall in these pairs are increasing and further yen buying will be triggered if near term support in these crosses are broker. Meanwhile, other majors and commodity pairs will likely be dragged down buy their respective yen crosses in case this happens.

One of the major focus today will be the release of Mar CPI from Canada which is expected to accelerate from 2.0% yoy to 2.2% yoy. Core CPI is expected to moderate slightly from 2.4% yoy to 2.3% yoy. Canadian dollar has been rebounding persistently after bottoming 1.1874 against dollar in Feb, partly supported by rising energy prices, partly on investment flows and partly due to easing concern of a BoC rate cut. Stronger than expected number will likely put further pressure in the USD/CAD. From US, Mar leading indicators and Apr Philly Fed index will be featured




Forex Mid-Day Technical Report

Sterling Retreats after Making 26 Yr High, Yen Recovers

Sterling retreats mildly into US session on profit taking after scoring new 26 year high of 2.0132 earlier in European session on stronger than expected wage growth. Meanwhile, both the Japanese yen Swiss Franc recovers further against dollar and crosses, which in turn dragged down EUR/USD and commodity pairs. EUR/USD made a fresh 2 year high of 1.3615 while Aussie and Kiwi made fresh 17 year and 22 year high respectively earlier today.
Today's employment report shows that joblessness continued to retreat in UK in March, with Claimant Count dropped more than expected by -9.2k. ILO unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.5% in Feb. More importantly, average earnings growth accelerated much more than expected to 4.6% in Feb, beating expectation of 4.3% and being the fastest growth since Mar 04. Increased wage inflation pressure is consistent with the current inflation outlook that BoE is facing and is supportive for an immediately hike in May and further tightening this year.
BoE meeting minutes reviewed that April's decision to keep rate unchanged at 5.25% was decided by a 7 to 2 vote with Tim Besley and Andrew Sentence voted to raise rate by 25bps. This voting is slightly more hawkish than consensus expectation which expected one would vote for a cut. But still, we maintain that the information in this minutes is somewhat outdated and focus should be on the BoE Inflation Report on May 16 and minutes of the the May meeting which should contain full analysis of the current inflation outlook.

.

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EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3570; (P) 1.3593; (R1) 1.3629; More

Even though edging to a new 2 year high of 1.3618 earlier today, EUR/USD lacks decisive momentum to go further yet. With bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI, we maintain that a short term top should be around the corner, if not formed yet. Touching of 1.3525 support will confirm this case and should bring further retreat towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.3496) or lower. But downside should be contained above 1.3406/10 support and bring rally resumption. Meanwhile, sustained trading above 1.3618 will indicate recent rally has resumed for next upside target of 1.3668 (04 high). However, break of 1.3406/10 will warn that the rise from 1.3253 has completed and put short term rising channel support (now at 1.3338) back into focus.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains unchanged. EUR/USD is still trading comfortably within medium term rising channel (1.1639, 1.2483, 1.2978) and medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress. Such up trend is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 has made a top at 1.3364 but subsequent correction has completed with three waves down to 1.2865 already. The current rise from 1.2865 should represent resumption of this whole up trend and further rise is still in favor to retest 1.3668 (04 high).

Having said that, on the upside, risk of medium term reversal will increase as EUR/USD approaches 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822 and focus will be then on reversal signals. On the downside, break of the lower support of the short term rising channel (now at 1.3338), will indicates that the rise from 1.2865 has completed. More importantly, this will be the first warning that the rise from 1.2483 has ended and thus the whole up trend from 1.1639 too. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel (now at 1.2954).

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GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0020; (P) 2.0075; (R1) 2.0140;

Cable's retreat from 2.0132 continues today. Break of 2.0008 minor support with 4 hours MACD dragged below signal line suggest that a short term top is formed at 2.0132 already. At this point, intraday bias will remain on the downside as long as cable stays below 2.0095 resistance and further pull back should be seen towards 1.9877 support. Break will put short term rising channel support (now at 1.9750) in focus. On the upside, above 2.0095 will indicate correction from 2.0132 has completed and bring retest of this high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.8090 is interpreted as having first wave finished at 1.9142, subsequent second wave correction completed at 1.8517. Third wave rally has completed at 1.9913 while the fourth wave correction has already ended with three subwaves down to 1.9183. Current rise from 1.9183 will likely be the final advance of this rise from 1.8090. The channeling property of the terminal points of 1.9142, 1.8517, 1.9913 and 1.9183 is supporting this case.

Having said that, resistance should significantly increase as cable meets 2.0106 (92 high). With bearish divergence condition still being displayed in weekly RSI as well as daily MACD, risk of medium term reversal will significantly increase. Hence, focus will be on reversal signal as cable approaches this zone. Break of 1.9723/26 support will warn that the rise from 1.9183 has completed and put rising channel support (now at 1.9394) back into focus. However, a strong break of mentioned 2.0106 resistance will path the way towards 61.8% projection of 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.0677.

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USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2010; (P) 1.2049; (R1) 1.2077; More

USD/CHF's fall from 1.2282 extends further to 1.2001 today but has yet to take out mentioned 1.2029 cluster support (78.6% retracement of 1..1878 to 1.2571 at 1.2026) decisively. Nevertheless, further decline is still in favor as long as USD/CHF stays below 1.2150 resistance. Sustained break of 1.2029 cluster support will confirm that whole fall from 1.2571 has resumed for 1.1878 low. However, strong rebound from here and a break of 1.2150 resistance suggest that USD/CHF is still bounded in consolidative trading that started at 1.2029 and would bring rebound towards 1.2282 again.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains bearish with USD/CHF staying below both 55 days EMA and 55 weeks EMA. Daily and weekly MACD are both still staying negative, supporting this view too. The preferred interpretation at this point is that the whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in progress with the first move from 1.3283 finished with three waves down to 1.1919. Subsequent rebound to 1.2768 was the interim correction and price actions from there represent resumption of such down trend. Further decline should be seen to 1.1878 low and sustained break will add more credence to this view and bring further medium term weakness towards 100% projection of 1.3283 to 1.1919 from 1.2768 at 1.1404.

However, note that USD/CHF is still bounded in wide range of 1.1878 to 1.2768. A rebound to above 1.2354 resistance will dampen this view and indicate that the fall from 1.2571 has completed after meeting 1.2027 fibo support. Another rise could then be seen to retest this high and then the upper end of the range at 1.2768.

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USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 118.17; (P) 118.59; (R1) 119.09;

USD/JPY's fall from 119.86 extends further to as low as 117.60 today. As discussed before, the corrective rise from 115.13 could have already completed at 119.86, after being limited by falling trend line (122.05, 121.61) and failed to take out 119.48 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13) decisively. Bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI are supporting this case. At this point, short term bias will remain on the downside as long as USD/JPY stays below 118.75 resistance and further decline should be seen towards 117.20 support and then 116.38. Above 118.75 will turn USD/JPY into consolidation but it will take a break above 119.86 high to revive short term bullishness. Otherwise, risk remains on the downside.

In the bigger picture, break of 116.38 support will revive the original case that the whole up trend from 108.99 has completed at 122.17. In this case, the corrective nature of the rise from 108.99 swings favors back to the case that such medium term rally is merely part of a large scale consolidation that started at 121.38, with first leg completed at 108.99 and second leg completed at 122.17. The fall from 121.17 should then the third leg of such consolidation and deeper decline should at least be seen to below 114.02/41 support zone (61.8% retracement of 108.99 to 122.17 at 114.02) first with much possibility of further fall to retest 108.99 low.

On the upside, sustained trading above 119.48 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13) will dampen our original view and indicate that a stronger rebound is underway. Also, price actions from 122.17 is probably developing into sideway consolidation to rise from 108.99 only, instead of as the third leg of consolidation that started at 121.38. In such case, a rest of 122.17 high could then be seen. But still, firm break above this resistance is needed to confirm medium term rally from 108.99 has resumed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at best.

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EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.73; (P) 161.17; (R1) 161.92;

EUR/JPY's retreat from 162.42 resumes again after brief recovery was limited by mentioned 161.55 resistance. As discussed before, a short term top should be formed at 162.42 after 4 hours MACD was dragged down and EUR/JPY has failed to take out medium term and short term channel resistance decisively. Attention is now on short term rising channel support (now at 159.23). Break will encourage deeper decline to 158.01 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 150.75 to 162.42 at 157.96) first. On the upside, above 161.55 will suggest that fall from 162.42 has completed. But it will take a break of 162.42 high to revive short term bullishness. Otherwise, risk remains on the downside.

In the bigger picture, we're treating the whole year long rise from 130.60 as resumption of the long term up trend with first wave ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up could have ended at 159.63 with a diagonal triangle already. Fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75 and rise from there represents the final advance in this structure. The channeling property of 143.60, 137.16, 159.63 and 150.75 is supporting this case.

Having said that, risk of a medium term reversal is also increasing with EUR/JPY now pressing the medium term channel resistance. Break of the short term channel support indicate that rise from 150.75 has completed and give a serious warning signal that the whole rise rise from 130.60 has ended. Focus will then turn to medium term channel support (now at 152.37). However, sustained break of the mentioned channel resistance will suggest that the underlying outlook is more bullish than we thought and will path the way towards 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64.