تحليلات و فرص على العملات

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GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9983; (P) 2.0026; (R1) 2.0062;

Cable's correction from 2.0132 continues into US session and at this point, further decline is still in favor towards 1.9877 support and then short term rising channel support (now at 1.9825). As discussed before, with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, a short term top is likely formed at 2.0132 already. Hence, even though above 2.0067 minor resistance will indicate fall from 2.0132 has completed and bring retest this high, firm break of 2.0132 is needed to confirm recent rally has resumed. Otherwise, consolidation might extend further with risk of another fall remains.

In the bigger picture, we'd like to point of that risk of medium term reversal is increasing. Firstly, the whole up trend from 1.7047 is not clearly impulsive. One interpretation is that rally from 1.7047 ended with three waves up to 1.9024. Subsequent correction ended at 1.8090. Rally from 1.8090 has already met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.7047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067. Secondly, regardless of the larger trend, rise from 1.8090 can be interpreted as being a five wave sequence with first wave ended at 1.9142, second at 1.8517, third at 1.9913 and fourth at 1.9183. The channeling property supports this interpretation too. In such case, the fifth wave rally from 1.9183 has also met target of 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9183 at 2.0046 too. With bearish divergence condition remains in weekly RSI and Daily MACD and key 2.0106 resistance (92 high) not decisively taken out, cable could be forming a top at the current price level.

On the downside, break of 1.9723/26 support will warn that the rise from 1.9183 has completed and put medium term rising channel support (now at 1.9423) back into focus. Firm break of the channel support will indicate that the whole rally from 1.8090 has completed and add much credence to the case that an important medium term is already formed and put focus to 1.9183 low. However, a strong break of mentioned 2.0106 resistance will dampen the above interpretation and indicates that underlying bullishness in cable is much stronger then we thought. Further medium term rally should then be seen towards 61.8% projection of 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.0677.

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USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2050; (P) 1.2070; (R1) 1.2102;

USD/CHF's rebound from 1.2001 continues into US session by reaching as high as 1.2126 so far. At this point, further rise is still in favor as long as USD/CHF stays above 1.2065 minor support. As discussed before, the fall from 1.2282 is tentatively treated as resumption of decline from 1.2571 first since daily MACD is dragged below signal line and stays in negative zone. Hence, upside of the current recovery from 1.2001 should be limited by 1.2150 resistance and bring fall resumption. Break of 1.2065 minor support will encourage a retest of 1.2001 low and break will bring further decline towards 1.1878 low. However, break of 1.2150 resistance will indicates that consolidation from 1.2029 is still in progress and further rebound towards 1.2282 should then follow.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains bearish with USD/CHF staying below both 55 days EMA and 55 weeks EMA. Daily and weekly MACD are both still staying negative, supporting this view too. The preferred interpretation at this point is that the whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in progress with the first move from 1.3283 finished with three waves down to 1.1919. Subsequent rebound to 1.2768 was the interim correction and price actions from there represent resumption of such down trend. Further decline should be seen to 1.1878 low and sustained break will add more credence to this view and bring further medium term weakness towards 100% projection of 1.3283 to 1.1919 from 1.2768 at 1.1404.

However, note that USD/CHF is still bounded in wide range of 1.1878 to 1.2768. A rebound to above 1.2354 resistance will dampen this view and indicate that the fall from 1.2571 has completed after meeting 1.2027 fibo support. Another rise could then be seen to retest this high and then the upper end of the range at 1.2768.

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USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 118.29; (P) 118.62; (R1) 119.01;

USD/JPY's fall from 119.01 was contained by mentioned 118.24 support and rebounds strongly since then. As discussed before, a short term top should be formed at 119.86 after rise from 115.13 failed to take out falling trend line resistance (122.05, 121.61) and 61.8% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13 at 119.48 decisively. Bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI and daily MACD's turn below signal line support this. Hence, even though further rebound could still be seen, short term risk remains on the downside as long as USD/JPY stays below 119.86 high. Below 118.24 minor support will suggest the recovery from 117.60 has completed and encourage further fall to 117.20 support and then 116.38.

In the bigger picture, our view remains unchanged. Previous break of medium term rising channel support (108.99, 114.41, 117.87) indicates the whole up trend from 108.99 has completed at 122.17. Weekly MACD's stay below signal line is still supporting this. The corrective nature of the rise from 108.99 swings favors back to the case that such medium term rally is merely part of a large scale consolidation that started at 121.38, with first leg completed at 108.99 and second leg completed at 122.17. The fall from 121.17 should then the third leg of such consolidation and deeper decline should at least be seen to below 114.02/41 support zone (61.8% retracement of 108.99 to 122.17 at 114.02) first with much possibility of further fall to retest 108.99 low.

However, decisive break of 119.48 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13) will indicate that a stronger rebound is underway. Also, price actions from 122.17 is probably developing into sideway consolidation to rise from 108.99 only, instead of as the third leg of consolidation that started at 121.38. In such case, a rest of 122.17 high could then be seen. But still, firm break above this resistance is needed to confirm medium term rally from 108.99 has resumed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at best.

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EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.93; (P) 161.43; (R1) 161.76;

Earlier break of 160.88 minor support suggests that EUR/JPY's rebound from 159.60 has already completed at 161.95.
At this point, further decline is still in favor towards 159.60 support as long as EUR/JPY stays below 161.95 resistance. Break of this support will have short term rising channel support (now at 159.66) taken out too, indicating the the whole rise from 150.75 could have already completed at 162.42, after failing to break mentioned short term and medium term channel resistance decisively. In such case, deeper decline should be seen towards 158.01 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 150.75 to 162.42 at 157.96) first. On the upside, above 161.95 will indicate that the correction from 162.42 has completed and should bring retest of this high. But still, sustained trading above both channel resistance is needed to confirm recent rally has resumed. Otherwise risk remains on the downside.

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY is at an important resistance level and hence risk of medium term reversal is increasing. We're treating the whole year long rise from 130.60 as resumption of the long term up trend with first wave ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure. The channeling property of 143.60, 137.16, 159.63 and 150.75 is supporting this case. Having said that, the upside target of the medium term channel is met.

On the downside, break of the short term channel support will indicate that rise from 150.75 has completed and give a serious warning signal that the whole rise rise from 130.60 has ended. Focus will then turn to medium term channel support (now at 152.50). However, sustained break of the mentioned channel resistance will suggest that the underlying outlook is more bullish than we thought and will path the way towards 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64.

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Forex Daily Technical Report

Yen Recovers in Quiet Market, Helped by S&P Rating

The Japanese yen recovers broadly in a quiet market today with help from Standard & Poor's move to raise Japan's debt rating. The rating was lifted by S&P from AA- to AA which was the first increase by S&P since 1975, and said that the banking system in Japan has been restored to "good health". Such a move is taken by the market as an acknowledgement that the Japanese economy is returning to normal, in particular with confidence coming back. Even though BoJ is widely expected to keep rates unchanged this Friday, there has been speculation that BoJ could lift rates again in May and markets will look forward to a string of important data from Japan on Friday as well as BoJ's semi-annual outlook report for more clues on it.

Elsewhere, dollar recovers mildly against euro and sterling today. With no important economic data scheduled to release today, markets will likely remain in range until an series on important data including housing, durables as well as Q1 GDP. The first round of France's presidential elections saw the two favorites take first and second place. Nicholas Sarkozy, representing the Conservatives took top spot with 31% of the vote, followed by Socialist Party candidate Segolene Royal who collected 26%. The second round of the election will take place on May 6.

Overnight's PPI release from Australia was a little disappointment for the Aussie bulls as it remained flat in Q1, with yoy rate dragged from 3.5% to 2.8%. Markets are trimming back bets on a near term hike from RBA slightly and sends the Aussie a little lower. However, the most important data should actually be the CPI release in the coming Asian session which will likely conclude market's expectation for May.

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دولار - فرنك
بيع
الاسباب موضحه بالتشارت

1- ترند هابط على الدايلى


2- ديفرجنز

3-مقاومه حد علوى للقناه الصاعده+ 38 فيبو+ متوسط 200على الساعه و 55على الاربع ساعات

4- تشبع شراء فى ترند هابط

نقطه الدخول 1.2100-1.2110
هدف اول الحد السفلى للقناه متوافق مع ترند مكسور
هدف تانى بعد كسر الحد السفلى 1.200
ممكن يكون الدخول فى حاله عدم الوصول الى 1.2100 الدخول بعد الكسر عند 1.250 والهدف 50 عند 1.2000
تحياتى للجميع سليل عائله دعبس

الحمد لله

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Forex Daily Analysis

EUR/USD

Finally the Eur Daily D ext was hit at 1.3665 in yesterday's trading session. We see the market in the pull back and even show possible evening star, of cos we will have to wait for that to confirm with today's close. We do see daily support at 1.3535/25. The 240 time frame is indicating a inner trend-line support area at 618 fib level at 1.3592. If that inner trend-line holds then we can see the Eur bulls push to the last B high at 1.3665, then towards 1.3738 (1.618 D ext). On the other side of the coin, if the inner trend-line support does not hold, that will confirm the possible evening star on the daily, which will drive the bear s momentum south towards the outer trend-line with intraday support at 1.3590/80/50/20. The break of the 1.3547 level will start a inner crown setup in the next trading session. For a detailed graphic explanation, please click on the EUR flag.

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GBP/USD

Cable Daily broke out of the high at 1.9915, bulls scored a point with a new high at 2.0131, which was a Daily D extension. Now has retraced back to the 1st fib level 382 at 1.9923, next level of daily support find at 1.9822 (April 2 high). The daily inner trend-line and the 382 fib level is converging at the same area which does hold strong support. If it holds we can see the B high at 2.0131 been retested and then targeting the 2.0466 area in the next coming weeks. Looking at the intraday trend on the 240 time frame, it shows that is has broken the last small A low, and following the downward inner trend-line towards the outer trend-line where we are finding the support of the Daily up inner trend-line and 382 fib level. If the daily support holds at the 1.9923 area, then we should be looking for the 240 inner trend-line break and the A high at 2.0054 for the inner bull crown setup, creating an new inner upward trend. Intraday support find at 1.9923/9861/9797 and resistance at 1.9953/2.0000/2.0053. For a detailed graphic explanation, please click on the GBP flag.

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USD/CHF

The CHF daily broke through the counter trend-line in last week, then after breaking the low, bears scored a point, then the pull back with a three white bullish soldier candles topping out at a 382 fib which really helped the CHF daily bears to take control, score another point. Bears are projecting a target of 1.1825 (1.618 D Ext) from the lastest fib bounce. The daily tweezer bottom is showing some concern which could move the market to the daily outer trend-line and 618 fib level at 1.2175. The 240 time frame down AB swing is holding at the inner trend-line and 618 fib level at 1.2075. If it holds the bears will be targeting support at 1.2055/2035/1994, the break of the low at 1.1994 will see profit taking at 1.1960, and then 1.1913. For a trend reversal on the 240, the bulls will have to take out the A high at 1.2126. For a detailed graphic explanation, please click on the CHF flag.

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USD/JPY

The JPY daily has finally broken out of the consolidation resistance. What is important is whether the JPY can maintain the break above without forming a bear trap. If the next trading session moves back into the consolidation and closes in side the range will indicate the bear trap and possible moves further down south. A break of the daily tweezer top at 119.85 will confirm bulls are control the JPY, therefore targeting 121.63 (1.618 D ext). Following the 240 time frame for the smaller swings, we can see resistance at 119.37 (786 fib) at a previous downward trend-line, next intraday resistance levels will be find at 119.53/85. For a detailed graphic explanation, please click on the JPY flag.

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Will The Dollar Finally Turn On US GDP

GDP Annualized (YoY) (1Q A)
Expected: 1.8%
Previous: 2.5%

Personal Consumption (YoY) (1Q A)
Expected: 3.5%
Previous: 4.2%


How Will The Markets React

Not long ago, Forex traders were disappointed when UK released a first quarter gross domestic product number that was largely in line with expectations. Though the lofty rate of growth in the United Kingdom was good on a fundamental basis, traders were more interested in the rush of an unexpected print to fuel short-term breakouts. The same sentiment is likely surrounding the US GDP report due Friday morning. For confirmation that something unusual is brewing in the markets we need only to look back at this past week's economic calendar and the lack of a reaction from the dollar. Tuesday's data flow brought the biggest drop in existing home sales in 18 years while Wednesday's docket printed a better than expected durable goods report. Despite these numbers though, the dollar hardly broke its steady pace. To ignore top tier indicators so blatantly like that, there clearly has to be something looming over the market. Looking ahead to tomorrow's GDP report, economists have put in an official consensus of a 1.8 percent annual pace. This would be the slowest rate of growth in over four years and put a very large crimp in growth projections for the world's largest economy. While the official forecast is already a depressed estimate, the trading masses may actually be holding out for an even lower number. Since so many indicators have crossed the wires with disappointing numbers over the past few weeks, there is a tangible air of pessimism. Therefore, should the GDP come in modestly below the official consensus, the greenback and treasuries may be somewhat insulated. At the same time, should it more or less hit its mark, the heavy handed bears may let up. While there are high expectations of a short-term reaction to the key indicator, it effects could easily carry through in the weeks ahead. In fact, the growth report could have considerable implications for next Friday's NFPs if consumer spending failed to prop up growth in the first quarter





Bonds - US 10-Year Treasury Note Futures

Treasuries, like the dollar, have pulled away from major support and resistance levels to give traders considerable running room in the event of a big surprise in Friday's growth report. In the past two sessions, yields have rallied on the momentum supplied by better-than-expected durable goods orders and the diversion of record highs in the equities market. However, Friday's direction is up in the air. If predictions for GDP are met or fall short, the deceleration in the economy would certainly call up a Treasury rally that could eventually (or quickly) take the benchmark 10-year note futures contract to 109-10 resistance. On the other hand, since predictions for Friday are running so low, it wouldn't take much of a positive turn to rally optimism and yields in turn. One thing is certain - event risk is high!








FX - EUR/USD

Has the Euro hit a top? We may find out soon enough on the release of US GDP on Friday. The figure is estimated to show a major slowdown in expansion to 1.8 percent from 2.5 percent. However, it's possible that forecasts are underestimating the figure, creating the potential for a surprisingly strong release. Furthermore, the markets have been inundated with gloom and doom stories about the US economy and the US dollar, so even if GDP is slightly lower than 1.8 percent, traders may still turn bullish on the greenback and take EURUSD down towards support. On the other hand, if GDP hits the tape significantly lower than expected, markets may consider the possibility that the economy is headed for a hard landing and propel EURUSD through resistance at 1.3665 to brand highs.








Equities - S&P 500 Index

US equities were mixed today, showing little inclination to make any big moves ahead of GDP on Friday morning. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which broke through the 13,000-points threshold for the first time on Wednesday, edged up 0.1 percent to close at 13,105.50 while the S&P 500 index slipped 0.1 percent to 1,494.25.

Shares in Apple rose 3.7 percent to $98.84 after profits easily beat estimates, mostly because of strong Macintosh computer sales. Meanwhile, Amazon shares jumped a further 10.5 percent to $62.71 following Wednesday's 27 percent gain on the back of strong earnings. However, the release of US GDP could be the deciding factor of where shares go Friday. While the figure is expected to show that expansion slowed to 1.8 percent in the first quarter, it's possible that the estimates are low balling the figure, creating the potential for a surprisingly strong release. As a result, the S&P 500 Index could surge back up through the recent highs of 1,498.02. However, if GDP proves to disappoint the markets and show the US economy heading towards a hard landing, equities could plummet.

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Jobless Claims Signal Potential for Weak Non-Farm Payrolls
-Due Next Week

• US Dollar: Jobless Claims Signal Potential for Weak Non-Farm Payrolls-Due Next Week
• All Eyes on the Yen Ahead of CPI Data and BoJ Rate Decision
• Swiss Franc Could Rebound on the Back of Stronger KoF Leading Indicators

US Dollar

In the foreign exchange market, there are times when politics can trump economics. Even though we did not have any breaking developments, the lack of meaningful US economic data turned the market's focus today to the potential for political change. Foreign investors were never happy with the US' presence in Iraq or with Iran's progress on nuclear development. Although neither has been resolved by today's news, the Senate's approval of legislation that outlined a timetable for withdrawal and reports that Iran may be reaching agreeable points with the EU have given foreign exchange traders a reason to rally the US dollar. The only economic data released today were jobless claims and the help wanted index. Both are minor reports but in the context of next week's non-farm payrolls release, we cannot help but pay attention to them. The help wanted index slipped from 31 to 30 in the month of March while jobless claims dropped from 341k to 321k, leaving the 4 week moving average at 332k. This represents a significant jump from the 317k average that we saw last month as well as a return to February levels. Taking that information into context, we can estimate that non-farm payrolls will be much closer to the 113k reading that we saw in February than the 180k print in March. The current consensus estimate for April payrolls is 100k. However as long as we have triple digit job growth, the Federal Reserve is probably happy to continue sitting on their hands. What does this mean for the US dollar? That even if the dollar manages to recover more losses the EUR/USD could still have a shot at 1.40. Don't forget that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are still on track to raise interest rates next month. We have two weeks before the rate decision and there are a lot of data between now and then. In the meantime, our primary focus is tomorrow's first quarter GDP report. Growth is expected to have slowed from 2.5 percent to 1.8 percent. We actually think the data could be a bit better since consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of GDP only worsened slightly in the first quarter. Retail sales in the first three months of the year averaged 0.6 percent, compared to average sales of 0.7 percent in the last three months of 2006.


Euro

After flirting with its all time highs yesterday, profit taking has hit the EUR/USD. More upside surprises in economic data however continues to suggest that economic growth in the region is accelerating. German consumer confidence increased from 4.4 to 5.5 for the month of May while French business confidence increased from 109 to 111 in the month of April. These measures of stronger sentiment follow similar upside surprises in German analyst and business confidence. It seems that everyone in the Eurozone from businesses to consumers is happy which means that we could also see stronger spending in the weeks ahead. In addition to the confidence data, we also had import prices, which increased more than expected. This suggests that we could see also firmer retail PMI numbers tomorrow. Overall, incoming economic data only further confirms that the economy could weather another interest rate hike so the ECB should have no hesitations about raising interest rates in June. Meanwhile Switzerland will be releasing the KoF leading indicators tomorrow. Upside surprises in the UBS consumption indicator, retail sales and the Swiss ZEW survey suggests that the number could be very positive for the Swiss Franc. EUR/CHF is struggling to extend its rally and a weak number could easily reverse the currency pair's two day rise.

British Pound

The British pound weakened significantly against the US dollar today after Bank of England member Tucker warned that UK consumer prices could fall significantly in the months to come. His thesis is based upon steady oil prices keeping inflation intact. The sharp intraday reversal in oil has helped his credibility but overall UK economic data continues to highlight the general health of the UK economy and the UK housing market. According to the Nationwide Building Society, house prices increased by 0.9 percent in the month of March, which compares to the market's 0.6 percent forecast. This drove the annual rate of growth up to 10.2 percent from 9.3 percent. There is no more UK data due for release this week which means that the pound's fluctuations will be dictated by the abundance of US, Eurozone and Japanese data.

Japanese Yen

With an endless list of Japanese data due for release over the next few hours, the Japanese Yen will be the story of the night. We are expecting overall household spending, retail sales, Tokyo and national consumer prices, industrial production, PMI, jobless rate, housing starts, construction orders, the Bank of Japan monetary policy decision and the release of their semi-annual economic outlook. CPI and the economic outlook report will be the most important since inflation or the lack thereof has been one of the primary barriers preventing the Bank of Japan from raising interest rates. A flat CGPI reading and a drop in import prices suggests that CPI could be weak, but upside surprises in the other data could easily erase any Yen bearishness. Either way, expect some decent volatility in the Japanese Yen tonight



Commodity Dollars ---AUD, NZD, CAD



The Commodity Currencies are weaker across the board as gold and oil prices both fall sharply on the day. Despite reporting a stronger leading index of economic activity, the Australian dollar was the biggest percentage loser in the currency market today. New Zealand's surprise interest rate hike has many people in the markets speculating that the central bank has delivered their rate hike of this cycle. The fall in both the New Zealand and Australian dollars suggest that these traders could be anticipating a similar move by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The Bank of Canada also released their monetary policy report today. Dodge is expected to retire in January. The central bank remains concerned about inflation, but wary US growth. This indicates that even though the central bank is hawkish, they will be very conservative with delivering any interest rate hikes.

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The Bank of Canada releases its quarterly Monetary Policy Report this morning

Thu, 26 Apr 2007 12:53:34 GMT

by Jay H. Bryson

Data released yesterday morning showed that U.S. new home sales rose in March from the seven-year low set during the previous month. However, the rebound was not as large as the consensus forecast had anticipated. At best, the housing market seems to be treading water at present. Fortunately, the rebound in durable goods orders in March was stronger than expected. As we wrote yesterday, some investors are beginning to question the outlook for capital spending. The strong rise in non-defense capital goods orders in March will put some of those concerns to rest, at least for the time being.
The dataflow did not have a big impact on the dollar yesterday, although the euro did take a run at its all-time high versus the greenback. After failing to break through, the euro has pulled back somewhat and the dollar is also a bit stronger versus most other major currencies this morning. Further retracement in the euro and other major currencies could occur if the weekly series of initial jobless claims, which prints this morning at 8:30 EDT, is stronger than expected. In addition, market participants await tomorrow's release of U.S. first quarter GDP data. The market consensus forecast anticipates that real GDP rose at a lackluster pace of only 1.8 percent (annualized) during the first quarter.
The Bank of Canada releases its quarterly Monetary Policy Report this morning at 10:00 EDT, which could shed some light on the outlook for Canadian monetary policy. The loonie could strengthen further if the report is seen as hawkish. A slew of Japanese data tonight, including data on industrial production, unemployment, retail sales, and CPI inflation, could inject some volatility into the yen/dollar exchange rate.



Wachovia Corporation Economics Group

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Dollar Higher Overnight

Asian Morning Update

All the European economic releases were over early in the European day which left only the U.S. jobless data which saw a drop of 20K in the week ending April 21st. This was better than anticipated with the headline claims declining to 321K and below the 330K forecast. Conversely Continuing Claims saw a much worse than expected rise of 65K to 2.59mn. This is a more worrisome number and is up from 2.45mn one year ago. At the moment however the numbers are reflective of a softening economy but one which is still seeing moderate growth, so in line with the market's sentiment.

Later in the day we did have the French Unemployment rate announced having fallen to 8.3% to mark its lowest level since 1983. One does wonder why French politicians complain so much…

The rest of the day was left to official-speak. The German Financial Minister Steinbrueck commented that while the effect of the January VAT hike was less than had been feared, the reduced consumer consumption and slower export performance is likely to cause Q1 GDP to be slightly lower than Q4 last year. However, stats over the past two months have been nothing short of stellar and with business and consumer confidence high the outlook for the coming 3-6 months is still strong.

We also had some interesting comments from the BOE. Board member Tucker is of the opinion that inflationary expectations have been well anchored and expects CPI to fall quite sharply. He considers the current monetary conditions are moderately restrictive. It seems the BOE is fighting back against comments made earlier in the week from a group of senior monetarists that after a fall back in inflation, with money supply growing at 12% the implications are for interest rates to reach over 7%.

The lack of impetus provided by the European numbers yesterday finally caused a slightly larger correction as outlined in yesterday's final report. The Euro support levels have been hit perfectly while the Dollar's gains against the Pound and Swissie have fallen just short of target. This does raise the risk of seeing just a little more strength early today but watch for the 1.3521-40 support to hold again along with 1.2126-43 USDCHF and 1.9957 GBPUSD.

The Dollar also broke higher against the Yen which has reached just below the 119.85 high. There is a raft of releases due from Japan today as well as the BOJ's interest rate decision. This will be a pair to watch today with numbers tending to disappoint recently and if this is the case we could see a test of the 120.50 area. However, while no change is likely in interest rates there is a general expectation that the BOJ will switch its focus from CPI in respect on interest rate decisions in favor of GDP. Certainly GDP is showing continued signs of strength as Japanese industry piggy backs on global growth. This will imply a less debatable policy for raising interest rates and probably in Q3. The bigger debate in my mind is whether consumer consumption is sustainable.

More later when the analysis is complete.

Asian economic releases expected today are all from Japan:

March

Unemployment Rate 4.0%
Overall Household Spending (YoY) +0.8%
National CPI (YoY) -0.2%
Industrial Production (MoM) +1.1%
Industrial Production (YoY) +3.6%
Large Retailers' Sales
Retail Sales (YoY) +0.3%
Vehicle Production (YoY)
Housing Starts (YoY) -0.2%
Annualized Housing Starts (YoY) 1.229m
Construction Starts
Construction Orders

April

Tokyo CPI (YoY) - 0.1%
Tokyo CPI excl fresh food (YoY) 0.0%
Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI

The Bank of Japan is due to announce its interest rate decision and to release its semi-annual economic outlook report

Ian Copsey
Global Forex Trading

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Forex Exchange Morning Report

New Zealand Dollar: Central Bank comments fuel intervention rumours

Although the NZD initially spiked higher following yesterday's hike in the Official Cash Rate, the currency failed to surpass last week's post float high of 0.7493. Having failed to break 75c the NZD moved sharply lower in overnight trade, with comments from the Reserve Bank that the currency is 'exceptionally and unjustifiably' high fuelling rumours of possible Central Bank intervention. A broadbased USD recovery and a slide in commodity prices pushed the NZD to an overnight low of 0.7368, before the currency recovered to this morning's opening level of 0.7390.

Australian Dollar: AUD lower as commodity prices reverse

The AUD drifted lower during the local session yesterday to touch an intra-day low of 0.8332. However, the currency came under further pressure during off-shore trade as the USD rebounded from recent losses and commodity prices reversed recent gains. With gold prices tumbling to a three week low and base metals moving sharply lower, the AUD slipped to a low of 0.8256. The currency opens this morning towards the lows at 0.8260.


Major Currencies: USD recovers against majors

The USD corrected yesterday in the wake of it's recent strong run despite little market data to prompt a change in overall direction. Profit taking was seen after the euro failed to break through the 1.3670 resistance level and as a result the currency pair plummeted through 1.3600 to an intra-day low of 1.3583. GBP followed a similar path despite positive UK housing data released earlier in the day. USD/JPY meanwhile rallied through 119.00 to post a 10 day high of 119.67. The market awaits key US Q1 GDP data due out tonight for further direction.

Japanese small business confidence slipped below 50 in April. The Shoko-Choking small business confidence index fell from 50.4 in March to 49.6 in April. Higher input costs, rising rents and inventory issues are the obvious culprits.

US initial claims fall 20k to 321k. Initial claims have now reversed their Easter related spike, confirming our view that there has been no material underlying upshift in the claims trend. In the prior week, continuing claims jumped sharply but the same distortion is most likely at play. Still on the labour market, the help wanted index fell to 30 in March, its lowest for the year so far. But it is worth noting that the index's all-time low of 29 was hit in November last year. In that month, payrolls jumped 196k, and they rose a further 226k in December. So help wanted data are not a useful guide to hiring strength.

The Bank of Canada's monetary policy report included slightly upgraded inflation projections, slightly lower growth forecasts and as we saw in Tuesday's rate decision press statement, the Bank now judges that the Canadian economy was operating just above its production capacity in the first quarter of this year. Consequently the Bank now sees inflation risks with 'a slight tilt to the upside'.

German import prices rose 0.9% yr in March, up from 0.8% yr in February but still close to the lowest for three years, thanks to euro appreciation. In Saxony, one of the early reporting German states, the April CPI was 2.4% yr, down a tick from 2.5% yr in March - maybe a guide to the national data due out tomorrow.

German consumer confidence was reported at 5.5 in May (but surveyed in early April), its highest on record. Not much prolonged impact from the January VAT hike then!

The French INSEE business confidence indicator rose from 109 to 111 in April. That's a new cycle high, perhaps a little surprising given that the French economy has not being doing so well lately (it's lagging Germany, certainly).

UK house prices up 10.2% yr in Apr, according to Nationwide BS. That is further confirmation that the UK house market is on fire again, consistent with the other prices measures and anecdotes from the real estate sector





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