تحليلات و فرص على العملات

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Technical Analysis Daily: USD/CAD USD/CAD 1.0991 USD/CAD continued its downward movement The Canadian Dollar continued its downward movement within its 2 month quotes frame. After breaking its previous bottom at 1.1004 from May 2007, the currency pair reached 1.0978, which is a 2.60% Fibonachi widening. Next support levels are 1.0927 which is a previous bottom level from May 2006, followed by the low 1.0893. If moving upwards first target would be the trend line crossing the tops 1.1785 from March 2007, 1.1595 from April 2007, and 1.1166 from May 2007. Next expected supports are 1.1120, 1.1205, 1.1332. USD/CAD No particular trading recommendations made.

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يورو - استرالى

الموضوع الاساسى

https://forum.arabictrader.com/showt...t=29001&page=9

الزوج محير

اسباب الهبوط
تكون راس و كتفين على الديلى
و اسباب الشراء
الديفرجنز الشراء على كل من الديلى و الاربع ساعات
+ احتمال تكون شمعه همر انعكاسيه على الديلى
اذا الدخول بيع بكسر الترند ومن ثم خط العنق
او شراء بكسر الترند الهابط المتوفق مع موفينج 21

تحياتى

aftrer broken trend to 1st target

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يورو - استرالى

الموضوع الاساسى

https://forum.arabictrader.com/showt...t=29001&page=9

الزوج محير

اسباب الهبوط
تكون راس و كتفين على الديلى
و اسباب الشراء
الديفرجنز الشراء على كل من الديلى و الاربع ساعات
+ احتمال تكون شمعه همر انعكاسيه على الديلى
اذا الدخول بيع بكسر الترند ومن ثم خط العنق
او شراء بكسر الترند الهابط المتوفق مع موفينج 21

تحياتى

تم تحقيق الهدف الاول و الثانى المشار اليهم بالخطوط الحمراء






تحياتى

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Forex Mid-Day Technical Report

Dollar Rebounds Despite Mixed Data, Yen Pressured ahead of BoJ

Dollar strengthens in early US session despite mixed data. Industrial production surprised on the upside by rising 0.7% mom in Apr, much better than expectation of 0.3%. Capacity utilization rose slightly to 81.6%. US housing starts rose 2.5% to 1.528m in Apr. However, building permits tumbled sharply by 8.9% to 1.43m, lowest in almost a decade. The report echoed yesterday's NAHB sentiment index which fell to 30 in Apr, reaching the lowest since 91. The data suggest that weakness in the housing market remains and will likely continue through Q2. Nevertheless, dollar rebounds against European majors and in particular, strengthens against Japanese yen.
Yen remains pressured across the board ahead of BoJ rate announcement which is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.5%.

The Quarterly Inflation Report from BoE today is basically consistent with market's view that BoE is not yet done with last week's hike in the current tightening cycle and another hike will likely be seen in Q3. On balance, the MPC’s assessment of inflation is "similar" to the prior report in Feb that price growth "falls “falls back sharply to below the target” by mid-2008 and rebounds thereafter “to settle around the target” in two years time. Risks are viewed on the upside. Growth expectations are "very similar" to prior report and in line with the 2.8% ten-year average. The most important part of the repost is that the above forecasts are based on the assumption that "Bank Rate follows a path implied by market yields". With market yield now implying slightly above 5.75% by year end, it's likely that BOE will have another hike in Q3. Employment report from UK showed labor market continued to tighten at a gradual pace. In April, the claimant rate fell to 2.8% from 2.9%, while during the first quarter the ILO rate held at 5.5%. Earnings growth, though, slowed slightly to 4.5% in the first quarter from 4.6%, contrary to expectation of rising to 4.8%.

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EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3541; (P) 1.3575; (R1) 1.3625;

EUR/USD retreats sharply after rebound from 1.3461 is limited at 1.3609, below mentioned 1.3627 and channel support turned resistance. Though another rise cannot be ruled out as long as EUR/USD stays above 1.3526 support, with 1.3627 remains intact, the original case is still in favor. That is, whole rally from 1.2865 has likely completed at 1.3681 after breaking through short term channel support and deeper decline should be seen. However, a break below 1.3526 support is needed to signal the completion of the rebound from 1.3461 first and bring retest of this low and then 1.3406/10 support zone (with 55 days EMA at 1.3421 now). On the upside, break of 1.3627 resistance will indicate that the fall from 1.3681 is merely a correction and has completed. In such case, rise from 1.2865 is still in progress for above 1.3681 high.

In the bigger picture, with 1.3668 target met, risk of medium term reversal is also increasing. As discussed before, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend from 1.1639. With such interpretation we'd expect risk of medium term reversal to increase significantly as EUR/USD enter into resistance zone between 1.3668 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Hence, focus is now on reversal signals.

On the downside, break of the short term rising channel support is already a warning that the rise from 1.2865 has completed. Decisive break of 1.3406/10 support, with 55 days EMA (now at 1.3421) taken out too, will confirm such case. More importantly, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI, this will be the first warning that the whole rally from 1.2483 has also completed, and, so is the whole up trend from 1.1639. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel support -now at 1.3028

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GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9780; (P) 1.9825; (R1) 1.9905;

Cable retreats after recovery from 1.9742 failed to break through 4 hours 55 EMA again (now at 1.9864). With 4 hours MACD staying above signal line, further consolidation and another recovery cannot be ruled out. But still, short term outlook remains bearish after previous break of the short term rising channel that indicates that rally from 1.9183 has likely completed at 2.0132 already. Hence, upside is still expected to be limited below 1.9999 resistance and bring another fall.

On the downside, sustained trading below 1.9766/75 support (38.2% retracement of 1.9183 to 2.0132 at 1.9769, with 55 days EMA at 1.9775) will encourage deeper decline towards next important support zone of medium term rising channel support (now at 1.9533) and 1.9545 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.9183 to 2.0132 at 1.9546). However, firm break of 1.1999 will indicate that the correction from 2.0132 is completed and could bring retest of this high.

In the bigger picture, we'd like to maintain that risk of medium term reversal remains high and is increasing. Firstly, the whole up trend from 1.7047 is not clearly impulsive. One interpretation is that rally from 1.7047 ended with three waves up to 1.9024. Subsequent correction ended at 1.8090. Rally from 1.8090 has already met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.7047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067. Secondly, regardless of the larger trend, rise from 1.8090 can be interpreted as being a five wave sequence with first wave ended at 1.9142, second at 1.8517, third at 1.9913 and fourth at 1.9183. The channeling property supports this interpretation too. In such case, the fifth wave rally from 1.9183 has also met target of 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9183 at 2.0046 too. With bearish divergence condition remains in weekly RSI and Daily MACD and key 2.0106 resistance (92 high) not decisively taken out, cable could be forming a top at the current price level.

On the downside, firm break of the medium term rising channel support (now at 1.9533) will indicate that the whole rally from 1.8090 has completed and add much credence to the case that an important medium term top is already in place and put focus to 1.9183 low. However, sustained trading above mentioned 2.0106 resistance will dampen the above interpretation and indicates that underlying bullishness in cable is much stronger then we thought. Further medium term rally should then be seen towards 61.8% projection of 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.0677

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USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2117; (P) 1.2160; (R1) 1.2195;

Following dollar's broad based rebound, USD/CHF rises in early US session. Short term outlook remains neutral as this point. But still, break of 1.2079 support is needed to confirm that rebound from 1.1993 has completed and bring retest of this low. Otherwise, further rebound cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile, above 1.2223 again will encourage another rise towards 1.2282 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2282)

In the bigger picture, firstly, note that weekly MACD remains below signal line and USD/CHF is still trading comfortably below 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.2358), medium term risk remains on the downside and the current rebound from 1.1993 could merely be part of a sideway consolidation to the whole fall from 1.2571. The original case is still in favor as long as 1.2282 cluster resistance holds. That is the whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in progress with the first move from 1.3283 finished with three waves down to 1.1919. Subsequent rebound to 1.2768 was the interim correction and price actions from there represent resumption of such down trend. Break of 1.1993 low will add more credence to this case and bring further decline to 1.1878 low.

However, strong break of 1.2282 cluster resistance will dampen this view and indicate that the fall from 1.2571 has completed after meeting 1.2026 fibo support (78.6% retracement of 1.1878 to 1.2571). Another rise could then be seen to retest this high and then the upper end of the range at 1.2768

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USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.06; (P) 120.31; (R1) 120.52;

USD/JPY's rise extends further today by reaching as high as 120.69 so far and is now pressing 78.6% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13 at 120.66. Sustained break of this fibo resistance will confirm recent rally has resumed. Next upside target will be trend line resistance at 120.15. However, below 120.14 will indicate an intraday top is formed and risk pull back towards 119.44 support. But as long as 119.44 support remains intact, rise from 117.60 should still be in progress and further rally is still in favor.

In the bigger picture, previous break of medium term rising channel support (108.99, 114.41, 117.87) indicates the whole medium term rally from 108.99 has completed at 122.17. However, firm break of falling trend line resistance (122.05 to 121.61) and sustained trading above 119.48 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13) indicates price actions from 122.17 is probably developing into sideway consolidation to rise from 108.99 only, instead of a sharp reversal. Hence, a retest of 122.17 high could be seen. But still, firm break above this resistance is needed to confirm medium term rally from 108.99 has resumed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at best and risk of another fall remains.

On the downside, a firm break below 117.60 support will confirm that rebound from 115.13 has completed and deeper fall should then be seen to retest this low and probably further towards 114.02/41 support zone (61.8% retracement of 108.99 to 122.17 at 114.02). But firm break of this support zone is needed to confirm the underlying medium term bearishness and shift favors back to the case that fall from 122.17 is the third leg of a wide range consolidation that started at 121.38 (first leg completed at 108.99, second at 122.17). Otherwise, as discussed before, price actions from 122.17 could merely be developing into sideway consolidation only and further medium term rally could still be seen

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EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.84; (P) 163.24; (R1) 163.84;

EUR/JPY edges further high to 163.85 in early US session, continuing to make new record high. At this point, short term bias remains on the upside as long as EUR/JPY stays above 162.64 minor support and further rise could still be seen towards 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64.

However, we'd maintain that risk of a short term reversal remains high after previous break of the short term rising channel, with bearish divergence condition staying in 4 hours MACD and RSI and with daily MACD remains below signal line. Below 162.64 will suggest that EUR/JPY has failed 163.59 resistance and deeper decline should then be seen towards 161.05 support and then 159.60 support (with 55 days EMA at 160.18).

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY's previous break above medium term rising channel resistance suggests that strength of the rally from 150.75 could be much stronger than we thought. But still, interpretation of rally from 130.60 remains unchanged. First wave up ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure, targeting 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 and could terminate there.

On the downside, break of the short term channel support indicates that rise from 150.75 has completed and another fall could still be seen towards 159.60 support. Rise from 150.75 will still likely to resume as long as this support holds. However, sustained trading below 159.60, with 55 days EMA taken out too, will warn that prior break of medium term rising channel resistance was merely a throw-over. Also, this will give a serious warning signal that the whole rise rise from 130.60 has ended. EUR/JPY should set to channel the medium channel support (now at 153.32) in such case

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Forex Daily Technical Report

Yen Weakens Further after Slower Growth and BoJ on Hold

Yen dips further lower against dollar after Q1 GDP slowed more than expected to 0.6% qoq, 2.4% annualized versus consensus of 0.7% qoq, 2.7% annualized. Prior quarter's growth was also revised down from 1.3% qoq, 5.5 % annualized to 1.2% qoq, 5.0% annualized. The biggest disappointment was the slump in capital expenditure with unexpectedly dropped -0.9% comparing to estimate of 0.5% rise and prior quarter's 2.3% rise. Though, just as Japanese Finance Minister Omi said, economic growth remains solid despite slowing from a stella Q4. BoJ kept rate unchanged at 0.5% as widely expected. Economic assessment is kept unchanged which expects moderate expansion in the economy. BoJ reiterates that CPI should continue to hover around zero in the near-term but trend higher over time.

One of the major focus today will be CPI inflation data from Canada. Headline CPI is expected to slow to 2.1% yoy in Apr but core CPI is expected to rise slightly from 2.3% yoy to 2.4% yoy.
USD/CAD continues to struggle to break through 1.1 level even though dipping to as low as 1.0963 earlier this week. However, strong CPI figures today could provided the needed fuel for USD/CAD to break through 1.1 and challenge 30 year low of 1.0930. Other data in the US session include jobless claims, leading indicators and Philly Fed survey

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EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3477; (P) 1.3542; (R1) 1.3581;

EUR/USD's break of 1.3526 support suggest that rebound from 1.3461 has completed at 1.3609, limited below mentioned 1.3627 resistance and channel support turned resistance. As discussed before, with 1.3627 remains intact, the original case is still in favor. That is, whole rally from 1.2865 has likely completed at 1.3681 after breaking through short term channel support and deeper decline should be seen. Below 1.3461 will now encourage further decline towards 1.3406/10 support zone (with 55 days EMA at 1.3434 now). On the upside, break of 1.3627 resistance will indicate that the fall from 1.3681 is merely a correction and has completed. In such case, rise from 1.2865 is still in progress for above 1.3681 high.

In the bigger picture, with 1.3668 target met, risk of medium term reversal is also increasing. As discussed before, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend from 1.1639. With such interpretation we'd expect risk of medium term reversal to increase significantly as EUR/USD enter into resistance zone between 1.3668 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Hence, focus is now on reversal signals.

On the downside, break of the short term rising channel support is already a warning that the rise from 1.2865 has completed. Decisive break of 1.3406/10 support, with 55 days EMA (now at 1.3434) taken out too, will confirm such case. More importantly, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI, this will be the first warning that the whole rally from 1.2483 has also completed, and, so is the whole up trend from 1.1639. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel support - now at 1.3028

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GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9726; (P) 1.9799; (R1) 1.9842;

Cable's recovery from 1.9742 was limited by 4 hours 55 EMA and dipped towards this low again. As discussed before, short term outlook remains bearish after previous break of the short term rising channel that indicates that rally from 1.9183 has likely completed at 2.0132 already. Sustained trading below 1.9766/75 support (38.2% retracement of 1.9183 to 2.0132 at 1.9769, with 55 days EMA at 1.9762) will encourage deeper decline towards next important support zone of medium term rising channel support (now at 1.9533) and 1.9545 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.9183 to 2.0132 at 1.9546). Above 1.9875 will bring another rebound but still, upside is expected to be limited below 1.9999 resistance and bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, we'd like to maintain that risk of medium term reversal remains high and is increasing. Firstly, the whole up trend from 1.7047 is not clearly impulsive. One interpretation is that rally from 1.7047 ended with three waves up to 1.9024. Subsequent correction ended at 1.8090. Rally from 1.8090 has already met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.7047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067. Secondly, regardless of the larger trend, rise from 1.8090 can be interpreted as being a five wave sequence with first wave ended at 1.9142, second at 1.8517, third at 1.9913 and fourth at 1.9183. The channeling property supports this interpretation too. In such case, the fifth wave rally from 1.9183 has also met target of 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9183 at 2.0046 too. With bearish divergence condition remains in weekly RSI and Daily MACD and key 2.0106 resistance (92 high) not decisively taken out, cable could be forming a top at the current price level.

On the downside, firm break of the medium term rising channel support (now at 1.9533) will indicate that the whole rally from 1.8090 has completed and add much credence to the case that an important medium term top is already in place and put focus to 1.9183 low. However, sustained trading above mentioned 2.0106 resistance will dampen the above interpretation and indicates that underlying bullishness in cable is much stronger then we thought. Further medium term rally should then be seen towards 61.8% projection of 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.0677

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USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2165; (P) 1.2204; (R1) 1.2272;

USD/CHF's rebound from 1.1993 resumed and extended further to as high as 1.2246 before retreating mildly. At this point, further rebound could still be seen as long as USD/CHF stays above 1.2126 support. Next upside target will be 1.2282 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2282). Below 1.2126 will suggest that rebound from 1.1993 might have completed and short term outlook will be turned neutral in such case.

In the bigger picture, firstly, note that weekly MACD remains below signal line and USD/CHF is still trading comfortably below 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.2358), medium term risk remains on the downside and the current rebound from 1.1993 could merely be part of a sideway consolidation to the whole fall from 1.2571. The original case is still in favor as long as 1.2282 cluster resistance holds. That is the whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in progress with the first move from 1.3283 finished with three waves down to 1.1919. Subsequent rebound to 1.2768 was the interim correction and price actions from there represent resumption of such down trend. Break of 1.1993 low will add more credence to this case and bring further decline to 1.1878 low.

However, strong break of 1.2282 cluster resistance will dampen this view and indicate that the fall from 1.2571 has completed after meeting 1.2026 fibo support (78.6% retracement of 1.1878 to 1.2571). Another rise could then be seen to retest this high and then the upper end of the range at 1.2768

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USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.36; (P) 120.59; (R1) 121.02;

USD/JPY's rally continues today and reaches as high as 120.96 so far. With 78.6% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13 at 120.66 taken out, next upside target will be trend line resistance at 121.10 and sustained break will encourage further rise to retest 122.17 high. Below 120.14 will turn short term outlook consolidative first. But a break below 119.44 support is needed to indicate whole rise from 115.13 has finished. Otherwise, further rally is still in favor.

In the bigger picture, previous break of medium term rising channel support (108.99, 114.41, 117.87) indicates the whole medium term rally from 108.99 has completed at 122.17. However, firm break of falling trend line resistance (122.05 to 121.61) and sustained trading above 119.48 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13) indicates price actions from 122.17 is probably developing into sideway consolidation to rise from 108.99 only, instead of a sharp reversal. Hence, a retest of 122.17 high could be seen. But still, firm break above this resistance is needed to confirm medium term rally from 108.99 has resumed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at best and risk of another fall remains.

On the downside, a firm break below 117.60 support will confirm that rebound from 115.13 has completed and deeper fall should then be seen to retest this low and probably further towards 114.02/41 support zone (61.8% retracement of 108.99 to 122.17 at 114.02). But firm break of this support zone is needed to confirm the underlying medium term bearishness and shift favors back to the case that fall from 122.17 is the third leg of a wide range consolidation that started at 121.38 (first leg completed at 108.99, second at 122.17). Otherwise, as discussed before, price actions from 122.17 could merely be developing into sideway consolidation only and further medium term rally could still be seen

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EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.95; (P) 163.41; (R1) 163.73;

EUR/JPY's consolidation from 163.89 continues as it hovers around prior high of 163.59. At this point, short term bias remains on the upside with 162.64 support remains intact. Further rally could still be seen towards 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64. However, we'd maintain that risk of a short term reversal remains high after previous break of the short term rising channel, with bearish divergence condition staying in 4 hours MACD and RSI and with daily MACD remains below signal line. Below 162.64 will suggest that EUR/JPY has failed 163.59 resistance and deeper decline should then be seen towards 161.05 support and then 159.60 support (with 55 days EMA at 160.18).

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY's previous break above medium term rising channel resistance suggests that strength of the rally from 150.75 could be much stronger than we thought. But still, interpretation of rally from 130.60 remains unchanged. First wave up ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure, targeting 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 and could terminate there.

On the downside, break of the short term channel support indicates that rise from 150.75 has completed and another fall could still be seen towards 159.60 support. Rise from 150.75 will still likely to resume as long as this support holds. However, sustained trading below 159.60, with 55 days EMA taken out too, will warn that prior break of medium term rising channel resistance was merely a throw-over. Also, this will give a serious warning signal that the whole rise rise from 130.60 has ended. EUR/JPY should set to channel the medium channel support (now at 153.32) in such case