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[شريف دعبس]

Dollar In Consolidation, Eyes on CPI

The dollar drifted lower slightly against the euro on concerns that a key inflation report due tomorrow may raise bets on a Fed rate cut in 2007. The foreign exchange market was quiet on Monday as there were few economic data. The euro hovers above the 1.35 handle against the dollar and faces a key short-term resistance at 1.3560. The sterling traded around 1.98 versus the dollar with no clear indication for a next move.


Recall that the latest FOMC meeting minutes eased worries on an early rate cut. However, the weak-than-expected retail sales report released last Friday sparked speculations on a Fed rate cut within this year. The market will focus on the US Consumer Price Index report due Tuesday for more insights on the inflation outlook and the monetary policy in future.

US CPI is expected to rise 0.5% in April, lower than the 0.6% rise a month earlier. Excluding food and energy, core CPI is estimated to rise on a monthly rate of 0.2%. NY Fed manufacturing index is seen rise from 3.8 to 8 in May. Besides, US net long-term TIC flows due 9:00 EST tomorrow morning may increase from 58.1 billion to 75 billion in March.

The Canadian dollar got rid of the impact from last week's soft data and strengthened today versus the dollar. Should US CPI come in weaker-than-expected tomorrow, the pair is likely to head to the 29 ½ year low at 1.0931.

EURUSD will face interim resistance at 1.3560, followed by 1.3580 and 1.36. Additional ceilings will emerge at 1.3620, backed by 1.3650. Support starts at 1.3520, backed by 1.35, 1.3470 and 1.3450. Subsequent floors are eyed at 1.34.

GBPUSD encounters interim resistance at 1.98, backed by 1.9830, and 1.9850. Subsequent ceilings will emerge at 1.9880, followed by 1.99 and 1.9950. On the downside, support begins at 1.9760, followed by 1.9750 and 1.9720. Additional floors are eyed at 1.97, backed by 1.9670 and 1.9650.

USDJPY encounters interim resistance at 120.50, backed by 120.80 and 121. Subsequent ceilings will emerge at 121.30, followed by 121.50 and 121.80. On the downside, support begins at 120 and 119.70, followed by 119.50. Additional floors are eyed at 119.30, backed by 119 and 118.80.

MG Financial Group

[هرجيســـا اف اكس]

راااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااائع

احيك يا اخ العرب

[شريف دعبس]

EUR/USD1.3544Back in LT channel of 1.2877

Tue, 15 May 2007 06:41:11 GMT
by KBC Market Research Desk
KBC Bank




The drop off 1.3683 has sent the pair in return action towards 1.3466 (broken LT daily Downtrenline off 1992),which played Support role.
Medium Term outlook for € intact while above 1.3310 (broken monthly Downtrendline off 1992 on synthetic charts).

1st Support area at 1.3523/ .3515 (daily Short Term Moving Average→/ daily Long Term Moving Average↑), with next levels at 1.3493 (daily envelope bottom + daily Bollinger bottom), ahead of 1.3467/ .3462 (weekly envelope bottom/ last week low): tough on 1st attempts.

If wrong, with next levels at 1.3442 (break-up daily April 11), where pause expected.

Resistance area at 1.3568 (daily envelope top + daily Medium Term Moving Average↓), with next levels at 1.3582
(daily Bollinger midline): must sustain above to signal renewed upside attempts.

For in-depth insight on other currency pairs PDF below

• USD/JPY: (120.39): Retested channel bottom off 115.16 and above Bullish Flag top off 120.47
  
• EUR/GBP: (.6841): New Short Term high above the neckline of a Short Term Double Bottom
  
• EUR/JPY: (163.06) Below channel bottom off 152.67 potential at 161.18 has been met

[شريف دعبس]

راااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااائع

احيك يا اخ العرب

ربنا يكرمك
و
اهلا بيك كاخ لينا فى المنتدى العريق
و
تحياتى ليك مع اطيب الامانى بالتوفيق

[شريف دعبس]

Forex Depth Analysis

Headlines: Yen Rebounds as Japan Investors May Bring Treasury Funds Home.

The yen rebounded from near an 11-week low against the dollar on speculation Japanese investors will bring back money invested in U.S. Treasuries.

The yen traded at 120.32 against the dollar at 7:20 a.m. in London from as low as 120.53, the weakest since Feb. 27, and compared with 120.35 late in New York yesterday. It was also at 162.96 per Euro after trading as weak as 163.27, from 163.04.

The Bank of Japan's benchmark interest rate of 0.5 percent is the lowest among major economies. The yen has fallen 4.9 percent against the Australian dollar and 5.2 percent versus the New Zealand dollar this quarter as Japanese investors sent money abroad in search of higher returns.

Figures from Japan's Ministry of Finance last week showed domestic investors bought 74.9 billion yen ($622.4 million) more foreign securities than they sold in the week ended May 5.

The selling point is at 120.30; triggered by the breaking the previous support and a failure to reach higher than the previous peak of 120.48; the market swings and change the direction of the trend.

• Fibonacci retracement 61.8% bottom at 119.88 represents the take profit as the first target and the second target will be 119.67
• Previous resistance represents the stop loss at 120.64

To strengthen our analysis; we use many other indicators, starting with MACD (Moving Averages convergence divergence); we notice the crossing of the two moving averages above the zero line with high volume and pointing downwards. In order to find the power of the market, we use RSI (Relative Strength Index).With RSI; we can determine that the trend is down and didn't reach the oversold area.

The zero line of the ROC (Rate of Change) is very important to understand the strength of the market and as we see on the graph; it breaks the zero line and moves downwards. We should always look at the trend line; and in this example it breaks the primary trend and the minor trend is down. The Stochastic is important to use when we have a big movement in the market and we want to know if will continue. William %R is very important tool as well to know the strength of the market and in this case we see the breaking of -20% line downwards. Most of the indicators show us the weakness of the USD against the JPY and the reversal of an up trend that has happened last three days

[شريف دعبس]

Forex Mid-Day Technical Report

Dollar Resilient Despite Tamer Inflation

Dollar remains resilient despite data showed that consumer inflation moderated more than expected in Apr. Headline CPI slowed from 2.8% yoy to 2.6% yoy, below consensus of 2.7%. Meanwhile, core CPI also slowed from 2.5% yoy to 2.3% yoy, below expectation of 2.4%. Moderation in inflation is consistent with the view that the US economy is continuing to grow below its potential. While core inflation remains above Fed's 1-2% comfort zone, focus will likely be shifted more towards growth if core CPI could settle below 2.5% in the coming months. But it's still too early to conclude that Fed will cut rates in 2H yet and will probably need to have persistent deterioration in growth data in Q2 to to convince the FOMC members to consider it.

Other data from the US include Empire State Manufacturing index which rose to 8.03 in May, inline with consensus. TIC capital flow rose from 58.1b to 67.6b in Mar but is slightly below expectation of 75b. While dollar remains steady against majors, it's pressured in USD/CAD which breached 1.1 level briefly after stronger than expected manufacturing shipments which rose 2.8% mom.

Earlier today, Sterling was hammered against dollar and euro after data showed consumer inflation backed off slightly in Apr as market expected. CPI moderated from 3.1% yoy to 2.8% yoy, back below BoE's tolerance level but still way above the 2% target. Both RPI and core CPI slowed too. The downturn is actually anticipated by most of the markets but may disappoint some ultra-bull of Sterling. Focus is turning to BoE's Quarterly Inflation Report tomorrow which could have upward revision in inflation forecasts for this year. While yesterday's PPI and today's CPI didn't add more fuel for rate expectation, tomorrow's report will provide more accurate clue for the markets to adjust their expectation on the number of rate hikes is needed from BoE to bring inflation down to 2%.

Euro is supported after stronger than expected GDP growth in Eurozone which slowed mildly to 0.6% qoq, 3.1% yoy from Q4's stella 3.3%. Growth remained solid and above expectation of 2.9% yoy which is supportive to further rate hikes from ECB down the road

[شريف دعبس]

تابع اليورو

اليورو و شمعه البيرسينج
وهى شمعه انعاكسيه مرتده من دعم قوى فى ترند صاعد قوى
تحياتى للجميع

واصل اليورو الصعود وتاكيد صحه الشمعه
البيرسينج

[شريف دعبس]

EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3525; (P) 1.3542; (R1) 1.3560;

EUR/USD continues to struggle around 4 hours 55 EMA
(now at 1.3550) and engage in choppy sideway trading. Still, intraday bias remains on the upside and further rebound could still be seen as long as EUR/USD stays above 1.3508 minor support. However, since the whole rally from 1.2865 has likely completed at 1.3681 after breaking through short term channel support, upside of the current rebound is expected to be limited below 1.3627 resistance and bring another fall.

On the downside, below 1.3508 will suggest that rebound from 1.3461 has completed and should bring retest of this low and then 1.3406/10 support zone (with 55 days EMA at 1.3421 now). However, break of 1.3627 resistance will indicate that the fall from 1.3681 is merely a correction and has completed. In such case, rise from 1.2865 is still in progress for above 1.3681 high.

In the bigger picture, with 1.3668 target met, risk of medium term reversal is also increasing. As discussed before, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend from 1.1639. With such interpretation we'd expect risk of medium term reversal to increase significantly as EUR/USD enter into resistance zone between 1.3668 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Hence, focus is now on reversal signals.

On the downside, break of the short term rising channel support is already a warning that the rise from 1.2865 has completed. Decisive break of 1.3406/10 support, with 55 days EMA (now at 1.3421) taken out too, will confirm such case. More importantly, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI, this will be the first warning that the whole rally from 1.2483 has also completed, and, so is the whole up trend from 1.1639. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel support now at 1.3028

[شريف دعبس]

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9765; (P) 1.9804; (R1) 1.9830;

Cable's fall resumes by breaking marginally below 1.9762 earlier today. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as cable stays below 1.9847 resistance. As discussed before, sustained trading below 1.9766/69 support (38.2% retracement of 1.9183 to 2.0132 at 1.9769, with 55 days EMA at 1.9766) will encourage deeper decline towards next important support zone of medium term rising channel support (now at 1.9533) and 1.9545 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.9183 to 2.0132 at 1.9546).

On the upside, above 1.9847 will turn intraday outlook consolidative again. But still, short term outlook remains bearish after previous break of the short term rising channel that indicates that rally from 1.9183 has likely completed at 2.0132 already. Hence, in case of another rebound, upside is still expected to be limited below 1.9999 resistance and bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, we'd like to maintain that risk of medium term reversal remains high and is increasing. Firstly, the whole up trend from 1.7047 is not clearly impulsive. One interpretation is that rally from 1.7047 ended with three waves up to 1.9024. Subsequent correction ended at 1.8090. Rally from 1.8090 has already met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.7047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067. Secondly, regardless of the larger trend, rise from 1.8090 can be interpreted as being a five wave sequence with first wave ended at 1.9142, second at 1.8517, third at 1.9913 and fourth at 1.9183. The channeling property supports this interpretation too. In such case, the fifth wave rally from 1.9183 has also met target of 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9183 at 2.0046 too. With bearish divergence condition remains in weekly RSI and Daily MACD and key 2.0106 resistance (92 high) not decisively taken out, cable could be forming a top at the current price level.

On the downside, firm break of the medium term rising channel support (now at 1.9533) will indicate that the whole rally from 1.8090 has completed and add much credence to the case that an important medium term top is already in place and put focus to 1.9183 low. However, sustained trading above mentioned 2.0106 resistance will dampen the above interpretation and indicates that underlying bullishness in cable is much stronger then we thought. Further medium term rally should then be seen towards 61.8% projection of 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554
(05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.0677

[شريف دعبس]

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2169; (P) 1.2187; (R1) 1.2206;

USD/CHF continues to engage in sideway trading between 1.2157 and 1.2223. As discussed before, with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI as well as daily MACD and RSI, 1.1993 should at least be a short term bottom. Hence, even though the current upside momentum is not convincing, further rise is still expected to be seen towards 1.2282 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2282) as long as USD/CHF stays above 1.2157 support. But below 1.2157 support again will turn short term outlook neutral.

In the bigger picture, firstly, note that weekly MACD remains below signal line and USD/CHF is still trading comfortably below 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.2358), medium term risk remains on the downside and the current rebound from 1.1993 could merely be part of a sideway consolidation to the whole fall from 1.2571. The original case is still in favor as long as 1.2282 cluster resistance holds. That is the whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in progress with the first move from 1.3283 finished with three waves down to 1.1919. Subsequent rebound to 1.2768 was the interim correction and price actions from there represent resumption of such down trend. Break of 1.1993 low will add more credence to this case and bring further decline to 1.1878 low.

However, strong break of 1.2282 cluster resistance will dampen this view and indicate that the fall from 1.2571 has completed after meeting 1.2026 fibo support (78.6% retracement of 1.1878 to 1.2571). Another rise could then be seen to retest this high and then the upper end of the range at 1.2768.

[شريف دعبس]

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.08; (P) 120.26; (R1) 120.49;
120.59. As discussed before, intraday bias still remains on the upside as long as 120.00 support holds and further rally could still be seen to test 78.6% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13 at 120.66. But firm break of 120.66 fibo resistance is needed to confirm recent rally has resumed. Otherwise, current choppy sideway trading may continue to extend. On the downside, below 120.00 with turn intraday bias to the downside. But as discussed before, with 119.02 cluster support (50% retracement of 117.60 to 120.51 at 119.06) remains intact, rise from 117.60 should still be in progress and further rally is still in favor. Firm break of 119.02 cluster support is needed to warn that the whole rebound from 115.13 has completed and put focus back to 117.60 support.

In the bigger picture, previous break of medium term rising channel support (108.99, 114.41, 117.87) indicates the whole medium term rally from 108.99 has completed at 122.17. However, firm break of falling trend line resistance (122.05 to 121.61) and sustained trading above 119.48 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13) indicates price actions from 122.17 is probably developing into sideway consolidation to rise from 108.99 only, instead of a sharp reversal. Hence, a retest of 122.17 high could be seen. But still, firm break above this resistance is needed to confirm medium term rally from 108.99 has resumed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at best and risk of another fall remains.

On the downside, a firm break below 117.60 support will confirm that rebound from 115.13 has completed and deeper fall should then be seen to retest this low and probably further towards 114.02/41 support zone (61.8% retracement of 108.99 to 122.17 at 114.02). But firm break of this support zone is needed to confirm the underlying medium term bearishness and shift favors back to the case that fall from 122.17 is the third leg of a wide range consolidation that started at 121.38 (first leg completed at 108.99, second at 122.17). Otherwise, as discussed before, price actions from 122.17 could merely be developing into sideway consolidation only and further medium term rally could still be seen

[شريف دعبس]

EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.61; (P) 162.90; (R1) 163.29;

EUR/JPY edges further higher to 163.41 on yen's weakness. At this point, intraday bias will still remain on the upside as long as 162.27 minor support holds. However, previous decisive break of short term rising channel support, with daily MACD dragged below signal line indicates that the rise from 150.75 should have completed 163.59 already, with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Hence, further correction is still expected to be seen as long as EUR/JPY stays below 163.59 high. Below 162.27 minor support will suggest that rebound from 161.05 might have completed and should bring retest of this low. Break will encourage further fall towards 159.60 support (with 55 days EMA at 160.03).

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY's previous break above medium term rising channel resistance (now at 162.80) suggests that strength of the rally from 150.75 could be much stronger than we thought. But still, interpretation of rally from 130.60 remains unchanged. First wave up ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure, targeting 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 and could terminate there.

On the downside, break of the short term channel support indicates that rise from 150.75 has completed and deeper correction should then be seen towards 159.60 support. Rise from 150.75 will still likely to resume as long as this support holds. However, sustained trading below 159.60, with 55 days EMA taken out too, will warn that prior break of medium term rising channel resistance was merely a throw-over. Also, this will give a serious warning signal that the whole rise rise from 130.60 has ended. EUR/JPY should set to channel the medium channel support (now at 153.32) in such case

[shamstec]

واصل اليورو الصعود وتاكيد صحه الشمعه

البيرسينج

لماذا تعتبر هذا الدعم قوى
هل لانه 38 فيبو ؟؟

[شريف دعبس]

لماذا تعتبر هذا الدعم قوى
هل لانه 38 فيبو ؟؟

عن اى دعم تقصد فلو 1.3540 نعم فيبو 38 +فهو ايضا ترند هابط مكسور على الشهرى وهو موضح بالتشارت المرفقه سابقا
تحياتى

[shamstec]

عن اى دعم تقصد فلو 1.3540 نعم فيبو 38 +فهو ايضا ترند هابط مكسور على الشهرى وهو موضح بالتشارت المرفقه سابقا

تحياتى

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