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USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.84; (P) 121.09; (R1) 121.54;

USD/JPY retreats sharply after reaching as high as 121.39 earlier today. Touching of mentioned 120.67 support indicates an intraday top is already formed at 121.39 and intraday bias is shifted to the downside for further retreat towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 120.43) could be seen. However, a break of 119.43 cluster support (50% retracement from 117.60 to 121.39 at 119.50) is needed to signal rally from 115.13 low has completed. Otherwise, another rise is still in favor after finishing brief consolidation.

In the bigger picture, previous break of medium term rising channel support (108.99, 114.41, 117.87) indicates the whole medium term rally from 108.99 has completed at 122.17. However, firm break of falling trend line resistance (122.05 to 121.61) and sustained trading above 119.48 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13) indicates price actions from 122.17 is developing into sideway consolidation to rise from 108.99 only, instead of a sharp reversal. Hence, a retest of 122.17 high could be seen. But still, firm break above this resistance is needed to confirm medium term rally from 108.99 has resumed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at best and risk of another fall remains.

On the downside, a firm break below 119.43/50 cluster support will indicate that rebound from 115.13 has completed and deeper fall could then be seen to retest this low. However, even in such case, downside will likely be contained above 114.02/41 support zone (61.8% retracement of 108.99 to 122.17 at 114.02) and complete the sideway consolidation that started at 122.17

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EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 163.30; (P) 163.55; (R1) 163.92;

EUR/JPY falls sharply after failing to break though 163.89 high again. Touching of 162.64 support indicates that an intraday top is formed and intraday bias is shifted to the downside. As discussed before, risk of a short term reversal remains high after previous break of the short term rising channel, with bearish divergence condition staying in 4 hours MACD and RSI and with daily MACD remains below signal line. Break of 162.64 will suggest that EUR/JPY has failed 163.59 resistance already and deeper decline should then be seen towards 161.05 support and then 159.60 support (with 55 days EMA at 160.18). On the above, above 163.89 is needed to indicate recent rally has resumed for 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64.

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY's previous break above medium term rising channel resistance suggests that strength of the rally from 150.75 could be much stronger than we thought. But still, interpretation of rally from 130.60 remains unchanged. First wave up ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure, targeting 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 and could terminate there.

On the downside, break of the short term channel support indicates that rise from 150.75 has completed and another fall could still be seen towards 159.60 support. Rise from 150.75 will still likely to resume as long as this support holds. However, sustained trading below 159.60, with 55 days EMA taken out too, will warn that prior break of medium term rising channel resistance was merely a throw-over. Also, this will give a serious warning signal that the whole rise rise from 130.60 has ended. EUR/JPY should set to channel the medium channel support (now at 153.32) in such case

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Forex Exchange Morning Report

New Zealand Dollar: Migration data fails to inspire markets

The week finished much like it started for the NZD with tight ranges traded and little action of note. The currency opened around 0.7310 on Friday morning and was sidelined until the Asian market opened. NZD/USD came off slowly as the day progressed but steady buying interest kept the currency supported around 0.7280. April migration data was released and posted a weaker than expected result, the currency registered little reaction to this however. The offshore session saw NZD/USD under selling pressure on the back of higher interest rates in China. This was short-lived however and the rallied back towards 0.7320 at Friday's close


Australian Dollar: AUD looks to test 0.8200

The AUD continued to look soft during Friday's local session as the market continued to reassess the USD's prospects given the recent positive data stream. AUD/USD opened at its highs around 0.8235 and gradually sold off during the local session to touch a low of 0.8212. The offshore session saw AUD/USD marked lower in response to China's announcement of higher interest rates but reported option barriers at 0.8200 held AUD/USD firm. Firmer metal prices helped the AUD bounce and it eventually posted an intraday high of 0.8259 - further helped by stop loss buying

Major Currencies

USD steady despite wider Yuan trading band

Most activity on Friday was in the JPY which firmed after China widened the Yuan's trading band against the USD from +/- 0.3% to +/- 0.5%. At the same time interest rates were raised 0.18% for lending and 0.27% for deposits. However most of the gains made by the JPY were eventually eroded with investors expecting the People's Bank of China to keep a tight grip on the currency. The USD was relatively stable last Friday, failing to respond to data on Friday night which showed that US consumers had become a little more optimistic on the economy, as shown in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.


US University of Michigan consumer sentiment rose to 88.7 in May (prelim) from 87.1. This was stronger than expected, and suggests that a good performance of the stock market has outweighed petrol price hikes and sub-prime mortgage woes in consumers' minds.

Germany producer prices increased a mere 0.1% in Apr, reducing annual inflation in the series to 1.6%, its lowest rate in 3 years. Although base effects were a factor, the trend is firmly downwards.

UK Apr retail sales were disappointing, falling 0.1% versus market expectations of a 0.7% rise. Annual growth fell to 4.2% from 5.0%. The data may be evidence that interest rate increases are starting to bite, though the data is volatile. The deflator rose 1.0% yr, the strongest annual growth in 8 years, which will not have gone unnoticed by the BoE.

Canada Mar retail sales made a broad-based surge of 1.9% in Mar, much stronger than expected. Feb was also revised up 0.1%. The automotive sector was particularly strong, though exauto sales were still up a solid 1.1%. The data will cause upward revisions to Q1 GDP estimates

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Forex Mid-Day Technical Report

Dollar Consolidates as Paulson Meets Chinese Officials

Without any catalyst, dollar turns sideway against majors as US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson kicks off the Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED) meetings between the US and China in Washington, to reduce a record trade gap between the two countries. Paulson emphasizes that the talks must yield results to counter a growing "anti-China" sentiment. The Chinese delegation is led by Vice Premier Wu Yi who commented in the start of the meeting that China should firmly oppose trade protectionism. Closing statements will be released tomorrow.

Euro was unmoved by solid ZEW economic sentiments released today. German Investor sentiment continued to rise, with ZEW index for May rising from 16.5 to 24.0. Both the key expectations and current conditions gauges improved, suggesting that concerns over the lasting impact of January’s VAT hike have been all but removed. Other news saw the United Arab Emirates said it will maintain its peg to the dollar, scotching speculation of a revaluation

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Forex Daily Technical Report

MPC Minutes Could be Anti-Climax

Markets remain generally in consolidative mode with a light economic calendar today. MPC minutes from BoE will be the event that catches most attention even though not much reaction is anticipated. Given that last week's Quarterly Inflation Report was already the most instrumental piece of information for outlook assessment, the MPC minutes will mainly be the explanation on justifying May's hike and could be an anti-climax. But the voting split, which is expected to be 8-1, and views of individual MPC members will be of interest. Other data scheduled today include Eurozone industrial orders and Canada Leading Indicators.

The Japanese yen continues to edge lower against dollar after release of the All industry index which dropped -1.4% in Mar, inline with consensus. There are some speculations that the Apr CPI report to be released later this week will confirm that domestic demand remains weak and deflation continues. In spite of recent hawkish comments from BoJ officials, the chance of a near term rate hike will continue to be low. The pair will closely listen to the announcements after the second day of the Strategic Economic Dialogue between US and China today.

Elsewhere, the Swiss Franc continues to draw support from hawkish comments from SNBRoth and edges higher in crosses. Roth called for SNG vigilance against the build-up of imported inflationary risks and noted that SNB never fully excluded intervention to support the currency even though it's not warranted at this moment

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EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3432; (P) 1.3453; (R1) 1.3469;

Not much to add. EUR/USD continues to trade sideway above 1.3435, being supported by 55 days EMA (now at 1.3437). As discussed before, the fall from 1.3609 is still in force as long as 1.3525 resistance holds and further decline is expected to follow towards 100% projection of 1.3681 to 1.3461 from 1.3609 at 1.3389. On the upside, above 1.3525 will indicate lengthier consolidation might follow first. But still, it will take a strong rebound to above 1.3609 resistance to confirm that decline from 1.3681 has completed. Otherwise, short term risk remains on the downside.

In the bigger picture, risk of 1.3681 being an important medium term top continues to increase. As discussed before, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend from 1.1639. With such interpretation, we'd expect risk of medium term reversal to increase significantly after EUR/USD met resistance zone between 1.3668 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Hence, focus is now on reversal signals.

On the downside, break of the short term rising channel support is already a warning that the rise from 1.2865 has completed. Decisive break of 1.3364 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3681 at 1.3369) will confirm such case. More importantly, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI, this will warn that the whole rally from 1.2483 has also completed, and, so is the whole up trend from 1.1639. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel support now at 1.3032

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GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9706; (P) 1.9737; (R1) 1.9773;

Cable's recovery from 1.9676 continues but after fall, outlook remains unchanged. Intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 1.9778 holds and further decline is expected to follow towards support zone of medium term rising channel support (now at 1.9558) and 1.9545 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.9183 to 2.0132 at 1.9546). Above 1.9778 will turn intraday outlook consolidative again. But still, break of 1.9874 is needed to indicate fall from 2.0132 has completed and bring strong rebound. Otherwise, short term risk remains on the downside.

In the bigger picture, risk of medium term reversal continues to increase. Firstly, the whole up trend from 1.7047 is not clearly impulsive. One interpretation is that rally from 1.7047 ended with three waves up to 1.9024. Subsequent correction ended at 1.8090. Rally from 1.8090 has already met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.7047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067. Secondly, regardless of the larger trend, rise from 1.8090 can be interpreted as being a five wave sequence with first wave ended at 1.9142, second at 1.8517, third at 1.9913 and fourth at 1.9183. The channeling property supports this interpretation too. In such case, the fifth wave rally from 1.9183 has also met target of 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9183 at 2.0046 too. With bearish divergence condition remains in weekly RSI and daily MACD and key 2.0106 resistance (92 high) not decisively taken out, 2.0132 could be the important medium term top already.

On the downside, firm break of the medium term rising channel support (now at 1.9558) will indicate that the whole rally from 1.8090 has completed and add much credence to the case that an important medium term top is already formed and put focus to 1.9183 low. However, sustained trading above mentioned 2.0106 resistance will dampen the above interpretation and indicates that underlying bullishness in cable is much stronger then we thought

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USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2277; (P) 1.2302; (R1) 1.2324;

USD/CHF's consolidation from 1.2331 continues but outlook remains basically unchanged. Intraday bias is still on the upside with 1.2268 support remains intact. Further rally is expected to be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2350. Touching of 1.2268 encourage deeper pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.2237) or lower. But a break below 1.2124 support is needed to indicate rebound from 1.1993 has completed. Otherwise, another rise is still in favor after completing brief consolidation

In the biggest picture, firm break of 1.2282 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2282) confirms that fall from 1.2571 has already completed at 1.1993 with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and RSI. More importantly, this will increase the chance that USD/CHF is about to complete a medium term head and shoulder bottom formation (ls: 1.1919, h: 1.1878, rs: 1.1993). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement at 1.2350 and neckline resistance (1.2768 to 1.2571, now at 1.2353) will add more weight to this case. Stronger rally should then be seen to 1.2571 first and then 1.2768

However, below 1.2124 support will indicate that rebound from 1.1993 has possible completed and save the case that recent choppy price actions could merely be part of a medium term triangle consolidation. And, down trend from 1.3283 should still resume after completing such consolidation in such case

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USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.30; (P) 121.44; (R1) 121.67;

USD/JPY continues to edge higher to 121.75 today even though upside momentum is unconvincing. At this point, further rally is still in favor as long as 121.20 support holds. Next upside target is 122.17 high. However, as displayed in mild bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI, USD/JPY could be losing momentum and upside could be limited by this 122.17 key resistance. On the downside, touching of 121.20 again will indicate a short term top is possibly formed and bring pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 120.88) or lower. But still, as long as 119.43 support holds, rally from 117.60 is still in force and another rise is expected to follow after brief consolidation.

In the bigger picture, previous break of medium term rising channel support (108.99, 114.41, 117.87) indicates the whole medium term rally from 108.99 has completed at 122.17. However, current strong rally from 115.13 suggest that price actions from 122.17 is just developing into sideway consolidation to rise from 108.99 only, instead of a sharp reversal. Hence, a retest of 122.17 high is expected to be seen. But still, firm break above this resistance is needed to confirm medium term rally from 108.99 has resumed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at best and there should still be another fall to retest 115.13 low before completing such consolidation.

On the downside, below 119.43 cluster support will indicate that the rise from 117.60 has finished and thus warn that the whole rebound from 115.13 has completed too. Focus will then be on 117.60 support and firm break will confirm such case. Deeper fall should then be seen to retest this low and probably further towards 114.02/41 support zone (61.8% retracement of 108.99 to 122.17 at 114.02

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EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 163.26; (P) 163.45; (R1) 163.66;

EUR/JPY's consolidation from 163.93 continues today and recovers mildly after being supported by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 163.30). Outlook remains basically unchanged. Even though upside momentum remains convincing, EUR/JPY could still continue to crawl towards 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 as long as 162.64 support holds. Below 162.64 will suggest a short term top is formed and bring deeper correction towards short term rising trend line (now at 161.88).

Also, we'd like to maintain that risk of short term reversal remains high after previous break of the short term rising channel, with bearish divergence condition staying in 4 hours MACD and RSI and with daily MACD remains below signal line. Also, it's possible that EUR/JPY is now in formation of a diagonal triangle to conclude the rally from 150.75. Hence, upside could be limited by 164.64 on loss of momentum and bring reversal. Break of 161.05 support will add much weight that rise from 150.75 has ended and deeper decline should then follow to 159.60 support first.

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY's previous break above medium term rising channel resistance suggests that strength of the rally from 150.75 is stronger than we originally thought. But still, interpretation of rally from 130.60 remains unchanged. First wave up ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure, targeting 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 and could terminate there.

On the downside, rise from 150.75 could still resume as long as 159.60 support holds. However, sustained trading below 159.60 will warn that prior break of medium term rising channel resistance was merely a throw-over. Also, this will give a serious warning signal that the whole rise rise from 130.60 has ended. EUR/JPY should set to test the medium channel support (now at 153.51) in such case

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Forex Mid-Day Technical Report

Sterling Rebounds after Hawkish MPC Minutes, Dollar Loses Steam

Sterling rebounds strongly across the board, boosted by MPC minutes of May's meeting. There are two reasons that provide the support for Sterling. Firstly, markets expected that the decision to raise rates in May was by a 8-1 vote with Blanchflower dissented. But the minutes revealed that the decision was actually on an unanimous 9-0 vote. Secondly, the minutes showed that there the possibility of a 50 bps hike was raised during the meeting and indeed, some voting members leaned towards a 50 bps rate hike. These are considered much more hawkish than the markets expected and raised speculation that BoE have another hike sooner than expected. However, the MPC members will still await further figures "to assess the impact of past increases in Bank Rate" and that "should the economy continue to develop broadly in line with the central expectation, Bank Rate could be raised further as necessary". That is, there isn't much change to the outlook after last week's Inflation Report that BoE will raise rates again in Q3.

Meanwhile strength in Sterling lead majors for a rebound against dollar which carried on into US session. Without key economic data from the US, markets will watch comments from US and China after the two days Strategic Economic Dialogue ends. Focus will then turn to tomorrow's key data including Eurozone Ifo, US durable goods and new home sales

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EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3432; (P) 1.3453; (R1) 1.3469;

After dipping to 1.3413, EUR/USD rebounds strongly in early US session and is now pressing 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.3504). At this point, intraday bias is turned back to the upside and further rebound could not be ruled out. However, the fall from 1.3681 should still be in force as long as 1.3609 resistance holds. Another fall towards 100% projection of 1.3681 to 1.3461 from 1.3609 at 1.3389 is still in favor. However, firm break above 1.3609 will indicate that fall from 1.3681 is of corrective nature and has completed. Retest of 1.3681 high should be seen in this case.

In the bigger picture, risk of 1.3681 being an important medium term top continues to increase. As discussed before, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend from 1.1639. With such interpretation, we'd expect risk of medium term reversal to increase significantly after EUR/USD met resistance zone between 1.3668 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Hence, focus is now on reversal signals.

On the downside, break of the short term rising channel support is already a warning that the rise from 1.2865 has completed. Decisive break of 1.3364 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3681 at 1.3369) will confirm such case. More importantly, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI, this will warn that the whole rally from 1.2483 has also completed, and, so is the whole up trend from 1.1639. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel support - now at 1.3032

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GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9706; (P) 1.9737; (R1) 1.9773;

Cable's rebound from 1.9676 extends strongly to as high as 1.9870 so far and is now pressing 1.9874 resistance. At this point, intraday bias is turned back to the upside and firm break of 1.9874 will indicate that corrective fall from 2.0132 has completed. Further rise should then be seen towards 1.9999 resistance first and the retest 2.0132 high. However, bouncing off from 1.9874 resistance will indicate that the fall from 2.0132 is still progress and below 1.9676 support again will encourage further decline towards support zone of medium term rising channel support (now at 1.9558) and 1.9545 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.9183 to 2.0132 at 1.9546).

In the bigger picture, risk of medium term reversal continues to increase. Firstly, the whole up trend from 1.7047 is not clearly impulsive. One interpretation is that rally from 1.7047 ended with three waves up to 1.9024. Subsequent correction ended at 1.8090. Rally from 1.8090 has already met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.7047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067. Secondly, regardless of the larger trend, rise from 1.8090 can be interpreted as being a five wave sequence with first wave ended at 1.9142, second at 1.8517, third at 1.9913 and fourth at 1.9183. The channeling property supports this interpretation too. In such case, the fifth wave rally from 1.9183 has also met target of 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9183 at 2.0046 too. With bearish divergence condition remains in weekly RSI and daily MACD and key 2.0106 resistance (92 high) not decisively taken out, 2.0132 could be the important medium term top already.

On the downside, firm break of the medium term rising channel support (now at 1.9558) will indicate that the whole rally from 1.8090 has completed and add much credence to the case that an important medium term top is already formed and put focus to 1.9183 low. However, sustained trading above mentioned 2.0106 resistance will dampen the above interpretation and indicates that underlying bullishness in cable is much stronger then we thought

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USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2277; (P) 1.2302; (R1) 1.2324;

USD/CHF's retreat from 1.2331 continues today and break of 1.2268 support has now pushed USD/CHF to as low as 1.2239, touching 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.2239) so far. At this point, intraday bias is turned to the downside and further consolidation could still follow. However, a break below 1.2124 support is needed to indicate rebound from 1.1993 has completed. Otherwise, another rise is still in favor after completing brief consolidation. Above 1.2331 again will encourage another rise towards 61.8% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2350.

In the biggest picture, firm break of 1.2282 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2282) confirms that fall from 1.2571 has already completed at 1.1993 with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and RSI. More importantly, this will increase the chance that USD/CHF is about to complete a medium term head and shoulder bottom formation (ls: 1.1919, h: 1.1878, rs: 1.1993). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement at 1.2350 and neckline resistance (1.2768 to 1.2571, now at 1.2353) will add more weight to this case. Stronger rally should then be seen to 1.2571 first and then 1.2768.

However, below 1.2124 support will indicate that rebound from 1.1993 has possible completed and save the case that recent choppy price actions could merely be part of a medium term triangle consolidation. And, down trend from 1.3283 should still resume after completing such consolidation in such case