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USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.30; (P) 121.44; (R1) 121.67;

USD/JPY was limited at 121.87 and retreats mildly since then. With 121.20 support remains intact, outlook remains unchanged. Even though upside momentum is unconvincing, further rally is still in favor towards 122.17 high. However, as displayed in mild bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI, USD/JPY could be losing momentum and upside could be limited by this 122.17 key resistance. On the downside, touching of 121.20 again will indicate a short term top is possibly formed and bring pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 120.91) or lower. But still, as long as 119.43 support holds, rally from 117.60 is still in force and another rise is expected to follow after brief consolidation.

In the bigger picture, previous break of medium term rising channel support (108.99, 114.41, 117.87) indicates the whole medium term rally from 108.99 has completed at 122.17. However, current strong rally from 115.13 suggest that price actions from 122.17 is just developing into sideway consolidation to rise from 108.99 only, instead of a sharp reversal. Hence, a retest of 122.17 high is expected to be seen. But still, firm break above this resistance is needed to confirm medium term rally from 108.99 has resumed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at best and there should still be another fall to retest 115.13 low before completing such consolidation.

On the downside, below 119.43 cluster support will indicate that the rise from 117.60 has finished and thus warn that the whole rebound from 115.13 has completed too. Focus will then be on 117.60 support and firm break will confirm such case. Deeper fall should then be seen to retest this low and probably further towards 114.02/41 support zone

61.8% retracement of 108.99 to 122.17 at 114.02

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EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 163.26; (P) 163.45; (R1) 163.66;

Not much to add. EUR/JPY's consolidation from 163.93 continues and recovers mildly after being supported by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 163.30). Outlook remains basically unchanged. Even though upside momentum remains convincing, EUR/JPY could still continue to crawl towards 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 as long as 162.64 support holds. Below 162.64 will suggest a short term top is formed and bring deeper correction towards short term rising trend line (now at 161.88).

Also, we'd like to maintain that risk of short term reversal remains high after previous break of the short term rising channel, with bearish divergence condition staying in 4 hours MACD and RSI and with daily MACD remains below signal line. Also, it's possible that EUR/JPY is now in formation of a diagonal triangle to conclude the rally from 150.75. Hence, upside could be limited by 164.64 on loss of momentum and bring reversal. Break of 161.05 support will add much weight that rise from 150.75 has ended and deeper decline should then follow to 159.60 support first.

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY's previous break above medium term rising channel resistance suggests that strength of the rally from 150.75 is stronger than we originally thought. But still, interpretation of rally from 130.60 remains unchanged. First wave up ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure, targeting 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 and could terminate there.

On the downside, rise from 150.75 could still resume as long as 159.60 support holds. However, sustained trading below 159.60 will warn that prior break of medium term rising channel resistance was merely a throw-over. Also, this will give a serious warning signal that the whole rise rise from 130.60 has ended. EUR/JPY should set to test the medium channel support (now at 153.51) in such case

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Forex Daily Technical Report

Focus on German Ifo, US Durables and New Home Sales

Markets start the day in tight range but with German Ifo, US durable goods orders and new home sales scheduled to release, volatility is set to increase as the day goes. As business condition and expectation in Germany continues to improve, the Ifo Business Climate Index is expected to rise further from 108.6 to 108.8 in May, scoring the highest reading since 1991. This is consistent with the view that upward momentum in the German economy remains firm and prevailing economic expansion will continue apace this year and be supportive to further rate hike from ECB. However, Euro remains relatively weak against dollar and in crosses and the even the strong Ifo number is not expected to change the current outlook.

The economic calendar in US finally starts today with durable goods orders and new home sales featured. Durable goods orders is expected to increase for another month in Apr by 1.0%, with ex-transport orders rising 0.6%. And, if came in expected, this will also be the third consecutive months of rise. This will also be consistent with the strength in Apr ISM index and industrial orders data and suggest that business momentum is starting to pick up again. On the other hand, new home sales is expected to stay at 7 year low at 0.86M annualized rate. This should indicate that the adjustment in the housing sector is at least not accelerating. The jobless claims data released today will also be closely watched and is expected to rise from 293k to 305k. However, if this piece of job data gives market another downside surprise, we could see jobless claims stays below 300k level for a third consecutive week which could raise some hope to the NFP number to be released next week and be dollar supportive.

After scoring another record low against Euro at 164.01, the Japanese yen recovers mildly as the day goes. Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan warned that "there is going to be a dramatic contraction at some point" for Chinese stocks and that triggered a lower close in the chinese stock market which in turn provided some support to the yen. Released overnight, Japanese trade surplus in narrowed to 927b, slightly below expectation of 953b.

The Strategic Economic Dialogue between US and China yielded little in terms of revaluation of the Yuan. While US is calling for a significant appreciation, the Chinese prefers a gradual approach and nothing is changed since China's announcement of widening the trading band last Friday. However, other agreements are reached including allowing greater U.S. access to China's financial sector

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EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3415; (P) 1.3458; (R1) 1.3501;

EUR/USD's rebound from 1.3413 was brief and limited by 4 hours 55 EMA. At this point, with 4 hours MACD staying above signal line, further consolidation could follow with another test of the EMA (now at 1.3497). But still, the fall from 1.3681 should still be in force as long as 1.3609 resistance holds. Another fall towards 100% projection of 1.3681 to 1.3461 from 1.3609 at 1.3389 is still expected. However, firm break above 1.3609 will indicate that fall from 1.3681 is of corrective nature and has completed. Retest of 1.3681 high should be seen in this case.

In the bigger picture, risk of 1.3681 being an important medium term top continues to increase. As discussed before, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend from 1.1639. With such interpretation, we'd expect risk of medium term reversal to increase significantly after EUR/USD met resistance zone between 1.3668 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Hence, focus is now on reversal signals.

On the downside, break of the short term rising channel support is already a warning that the rise from 1.2865 has completed. Decisive break of 1.3364 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3681 at 1.3369) will confirm such case. More importantly, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI, this will warn that the whole rally from 1.2483 has also completed, and, so is the whole up trend from 1.1639. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel support -now at 1.3032

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GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9757; (P) 1.9824; (R1) 1.9934;

Cable's rebound from 1.9676 reached as high as 1.9895 before turn sideway. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.9848 minor support holds. Further rebound is in favor and sustained break of 1.9874 resistance will indicate that corrective fall from 2.0132 has completed and bring retest of short term falling trend line (now at 1.9966) and 1.9999 resistance. Below 1.9848 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first. But a break of 1.9716 support is needed to indicate fall from 2.0132 has resumed for medium term rising channel support (now at 1.9561) and 1.9545 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.9183 to 2.0132 at 1.9546).

In the bigger picture, risk of medium term reversal continues to increase. Firstly, the whole up trend from 1.7047 is not clearly impulsive. One interpretation is that rally from 1.7047 ended with three waves up to 1.9024. Subsequent correction ended at 1.8090. Rally from 1.8090 has already met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.7047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067. Secondly, regardless of the larger trend, rise from 1.8090 can be interpreted as being a five wave sequence with first wave ended at 1.9142, second at 1.8517, third at 1.9913 and fourth at 1.9183. The channeling property supports this interpretation too. In such case, the fifth wave rally from 1.9183 has also met target of 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9183 at 2.0046 too. With bearish divergence condition remains in weekly RSI and daily MACD and key 2.0106 resistance (92 high) not decisively taken out, 2.0132 could be the important medium term top already.

On the downside, firm break of the medium term rising channel support (now at 1.9561) will indicate that the whole rally from 1.8090 has completed and add much credence to the case that an important medium term top is already formed and put focus to 1.9183 low. However, sustained trading above mentioned 2.0106 resistance will dampen the above interpretation and indicates that underlying bullishness in cable is much stronger then we thought

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USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2240; (P) 1.2275; (R1) 1.2312;

USD/CHF's retreat from 1.2331 was supported by 4 hours 55 EMA and turns into sideway consolidation since then. At this point, with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, further consolidation could still be seen with another test of the EMA (now at 1.2246), but rise from 1.1993 should still be in good shape as long as short term rising trend line (now at 1.2188) remains intact. another rise is still in favor after completing brief consolidation, towards 61.8% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2350.

In the biggest picture, previous break of 1.2282 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2282) confirms that fall from 1.2571 has already completed at 1.1993 with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and RSI. More importantly, this will increase the chance that USD/CHF is about to complete a medium term head and shoulder bottom formation (ls: 1.1919, h: 1.1878, rs: 1.1993). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement at 1.2350 and neckline resistance (1.2768 to 1.2571, now at 1.2350) will add more weight to this case. Stronger rally should then be seen to 1.2571 first and then 1.2768.

However, below 1.2124 support 61.8% retracement of 1.1993 to 1.2331 at 1.2122) will indicate that rebound from 1.1993 has possible completed and save the case that recent choppy price actions could merely be part of a medium term triangle consolidation. And, down trend from 1.3283 should still resume after completing such consolidation in such case

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USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.35; (P) 121.60; (R1) 121.90;

USD/JPY's consolidation from 121.87 continues today. With 121.20 support remains intact, outlook remains unchanged. Even though upside momentum is unconvincing, further rally is still in favor towards 122.17 high. However, as displayed in mild bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI, USD/JPY could be losing momentum and upside could be limited by this 122.17 key resistance. On the downside, touching of 121.20 again will indicate a short term top is possibly formed and bring pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 121.04) or lower. But still, as long as 119.43 support holds, rally from 117.60 is still in force and another rise is expected to follow after brief consolidation.

In the bigger picture, previous break of medium term rising channel support (108.99, 114.41, 117.87) indicates the whole medium term rally from 108.99 has completed at 122.17. However, current strong rally from 115.13 suggest that price actions from 122.17 is just developing into sideway consolidation to rise from 108.99 only, instead of a sharp reversal. Hence, a retest of 122.17 high is expected to be seen. But still, firm break above this resistance is needed to confirm medium term rally from 108.99 has resumed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at best and there should still be another fall to retest 115.13 low before completing such consolidation.

On the downside, below 119.43 cluster support will indicate that the rise from 117.60 has finished and thus warn that the whole rebound from 115.13 has completed too. Focus will then be on 117.60 support and firm break will confirm such case. Deeper fall should then be seen to retest this low and probably further towards 114.02/41 support zone

61.8% retracement of 108.99 to 122.17 at 114.02

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EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 163.38; (P) 163.69; (R1) 164.01;

Even though making new record high at 164.01, EUR/JPY lacks decisive momentum to go further and retreats again. Outlook remains basically unchanged at this point. Even though upside momentum remains convincing, EUR/JPY could still continue to crawl towards 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 as long as 162.64 support holds. Below 162.64 will suggest a short term top is formed and bring deeper correction towards short term rising trend line (now at 161.88).

Also, we'd like to maintain that risk of short term reversal remains high after previous break of the short term rising channel, with bearish divergence condition staying in 4 hours MACD and RSI and with daily MACD remains below signal line. Also, it's possible that EUR/JPY is now in formation of a diagonal triangle to conclude the rally from 150.75. Hence, upside could be limited by 164.64 on loss of momentum and bring reversal. Break of 161.05 support will add much weight that rise from 150.75 has ended and deeper decline should then follow to 159.60 support first.

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY's previous break above medium term rising channel resistance suggests that strength of the rally from 150.75 is stronger than we originally thought. But still, interpretation of rally from 130.60 remains unchanged. First wave up ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure, targeting 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 and could terminate there.

On the downside, rise from 150.75 could still resume as long as 159.60 support holds. However, sustained trading below 159.60 will warn that prior break of medium term rising channel resistance was merely a throw-over. Also, this will give a serious warning signal that the whole rise rise from 130.60 has ended. EUR/JPY should set to test the medium channel support (now at 153.51) in such case

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Fundamentals to filter your investment position

This week’s trading in crude oil has made a very compelling case for keeping an eye on fundamentals. Double filters, via fundamental analysis, kicked in this week since the OPEC meeting yielded the decision to NOT cut production and further the International Energy Agency indicated another build in crude inventories, thereby giving those investors who were long crude oil objective reasons to ‘take the money and run’ a few days ago, on a market-on-close basis, after the OPEC announcement was made. Clearly the powerful and reliable VantagePoint neural network trading software showed a solid crossover up on it’s implied timing buy, back on January 3rd


But the utilization of fundamentals as listed above would have helped one exit at an optimum level. It is very important for investors to stay disciplined and wait on their trading software to enter the market, however, taking profits sometimes demands a little common sense. While crude oil did close up on the day of the OPEC announcement, it did drop over a dollar per barrel on Wednesday and almost 2 dollars per barrel on Thursday. Most investors invariably get pre-occupied with exiting as close to the top or bottom of a cycle as they can but in the end it’s all about making money. Naturally the exit of a position is much easier than the entry of a position since liquidation of a long position does not necessarily demand that the market keep going down, whereas if one is liquidating a long position and simultaneously initiating a short position then it would probably be important to have the market go down fairly quickly. The exception to this situation would be to consistently have an option spread position [click on the link ‘Discover Easy to Understand Option Strategies That Will Give You Staying Power’ at www.TradingEducation.com] that enables one to make changes to the option spread investment as volatility changes and as technical and fundamental analysis changes

Good Trading

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Cable, Year Long Top

The long term bearish view in cable remains in place as the market is seen as completing (or nearly) the rally from the Nov 2005 low at 1.7050 (wave 5, see numbering on weekly chart below) and possibly the whole upmove from the June 2001 low at 1.3690 (A-B-C). Note too that technical indicators are not confirming the last few months of gains (see bearish divergence on weekly macd at bottom of chart), the market is longer term overbought after the sharp upmove since Nov 2005, and the market is trading near the 2.00 area that turned the market back in the early 1990's. This argues that risk is rising for at least 9-12 months of correcting lower and minimum 15 big figure retracement. However, with no firm signs “pattern-wise” that an important top is in place, there remains some risk for more topping back toward the April high at 2.0130 and even slightly above (though not currently favored). For now (for the longer term) and depending on risk tolerance, can either start to build longer term shorts and be willing to stay with it (and even add) on further slight new highs, or can just trade the shorter term view (below) until better signs that the important top is in place.

Nearer term, short from the May 10th sell at 1.9840 before declining to achieve the initial support/target at 1.9670/80 (50% from the March low at 1.9185) last week. The market has since bounced from that support (see daily chart below), but the gains are seen as a correction with an eventual resumption of the declines back to the 1.9675 low and even below after. Currently, the market is testing key resistance at 1.9890/05 (both the ceiling of the month long bearish trendline) and this area should provide at least temporary resistance. However, the market has only been correcting the month long decline for a few days, and may not be long enough. This in turn raises scope for another week (or more) of ranging/chopping before the new lows below 1.9675 are seen. So for now, would continue to use a wide stop on a close above the bearish trendline since April (currently at 1.9970/80) just in case. Nearby support is seen at 1.9775/85

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Daily Technical Briefing: Dollar Mixed - Bullish On Cable and Bearish on Australian Dollar

Technical Overview

• Euro 1.3414 Key
• Japanese Yen 120.50 Trendline
• British Pound Impulsive Rally
• Swiss Franc Channel
• Canadian Dollar Headed to 1.0733
• Australian Dollar Headed Below .8200
• New Zealand Dollar Bearish Below .7403

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EUR/USD

Commentary: With the decline from the top looking corrective (as opposed to impulsive), and with the a and c legs of the correction close to equal (218 and 195 pips), there is potential for a sizeable rally as long as 1.3414 remains intact. Although reward to risk favors longs here in the short term, we are wary of getting bullish longer term due to the extreme sentiment (USD bearishness/Euro bullishness), as evidenced by the COT report. The favored wave count does favor one more high above 1.3680 in a 5th wave before an impulsive decline occurs. We are willing to take a bullish stand against 1.3414 if price trades to 1.3462 (before dropping below 1.3414) for an eventual retest of 1.3680.

Strategy: Bullish above 1.3462, against 1.3414, targeting 1.3680

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USD/JPY

Commentary: Is this the turn? The USDJPY has rolled over from just under 122.00 and declined below short term trendline support. Still, very short term intraday charts fail to show impulsive downside action and the decline from 121.86 is corrective so far and in a-b-c format. Risk is to the downside though as daily RSI has rolled over from above 70. We would be confident in the bear side in a break below the potential support line drawn off of 117.60 and 119.46. That line is near 120.50 currently and increases about 12 pips per day (see chart above).

Strategy: None

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GBP/USD

Commentary: Cable has turned up from just under 1.9700, leaving close to two equal legs from 2.0131 (2.0131-1.9841 = 290; 1.9997-1.9676 = 321). Bulls were thwarted at the line drawn off the 5/1 and 5/9 highs but the 3 wave decline from 2.0131 is the dominant pattern and is bullish. Allow for some consolidation in a small 4th wave and a small 5th wave to exceed 1.9892 before a more significant pullback. This pullback will offer an opportunity to align with the next leg up


Strategy: Waiting for the scenario described above to play out for an opportunity to get bullish against 1.9676