تحليلات و فرص على العملات

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Forex Mid-Day Technical Report

Euro Retreats Despite Rates Still on "Accommodative Side"

ECB raise refinancing rates by 25bps to 4.00% as widely expected. In the press conference, Trichet, to the contracts of some analysts, still described rates as "on the accommodative side. Financing condition is still described as favorable. Risk to inflation is still on the upside and "acting in a firm and timely manner to ensure price stability in the medium term is warranted." The staff projections on inflation and growth confirmed to be upwardly revised. 07 CPI to 1.8-2.2% up from 1.5-2.1% previously and 08 still 1.4-2.6%. 07 GDP is seen at 2.3-2.9% from 2.1-2.9% with 08 1.8-2.8% from 1.9-2.9%. Though the press conference isn't anything dovish, it seems that markets are dissatisfied with ECB's keeping 08 inflation forecasts unchanged with mid-point at 2.0% which doesn't give any guidance to the monetary policy in 08. After all, another hike in Sep is still widely expected by the markets.

Data from the US seen labor costs in Q1 revised much higher from 0.6% to 1.8% vs expectation of 1.1% while productivity was revised lower from 1.7% to 1.0% versus consensus of 1.1%. Dollar is mixed into US session while the Japanese yen is trying to extend current rebound against both Euro and the greenback. Looking ahead, markets' focus will be on RBNZ rate decision in the coming Asian session and BoE rate decision tomorrow. Opinions are divided on whether both central banks will be on hold or hike again and any surprise will likely spark much volatility

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EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3489; (P) 1.3520; (R1) 1.3555;

EUR/USD's retreat from 1.3553 continues into US session but with 1.3487 minor support remains intact, rally from 1.3391 is still expected to resume sooner rather than later and break of 1.3538 minor resistance will indicate such rally has likely resumed for 1.3609 resistance first. Touching of 1.3487 will indicate lengthier consolidation will likely follow before another rise.

As discussed before, correction from 1.3681 should have completed with three waves down to 1.3391 already. Sustained trading above the short term falling trend line (now at 1.3572) will confirm such case and retest of 1.3681 high should eventually be seen. Meanwhile, in case of a deeper pullback from 1.3553, sustained trading below 1.3364 cluster support is needed to confirm underlying bearishness. Otherwise, the corrective fall from 1.3681 is still considered either ended or to be ended soon. That is, another strong rebound is likely to follow.

In the bigger picture, with 1.3364 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3681 at 1.3369) remains intact, the rise from 1.2865 is still expected to resume to above 1.3681. However, risk of medium term reversal is still high. As discussed before, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend from 1.1639. With such interpretation, we'd expect risk of medium term reversal to increase significantly after EUR/USD met resistance zone between 1.3668 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Hence, focus is now on reversal signals.

On the downside, decisive break of 1.3364 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3681 at 1.3369) is needed to confirm a medium term top is made. More importantly, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI, this will warn that the whole rally from 1.2483 has also completed, and, so is the whole up trend from 1.1639. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel support - now at 1.3049

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GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9903; (P) 1.9934; (R1) 1.9961;

Cable continues to consolidate after rally from 1.9733 has met mentioned target of 1.9956/58 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 2.0132 to 1.9676 at 1.9958 and 100% projection of 1.9676 to 1.9899 from 1.9733 at 1.9956). At this point, , intraday bias will still remain on the upside as long as 1.9891 minor support holds. Sustained trading above 1.9956/58 will encourage further rise to retest 2.0132 high.

On the downside, touching of 1.9891 will indicate lengthier consolidation might follow first. But downside should be contained by 1.9819 resistance turned support and bring another rally. Break of 1.9819 is needed to signal rise from 1.9733 has completed and turn focus back to this support.

In the bigger picture, risk of medium term reversal remains high even though a retest of 2.0132 high could now be seen. Firstly, the whole up trend from 1.7047 is not clearly impulsive. One interpretation is that rally from 1.7047 ended with three waves up to 1.9024. Subsequent correction ended at 1.8090. Rally from 1.8090 has already met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.7047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067. Secondly, regardless of the larger trend, rise from 1.8090 can be interpreted as being a five wave sequence with first wave ended at 1.9142, second at 1.8517, third at 1.9913 and fourth at 1.9183. The channeling property supports this interpretation too. In such case, the fifth wave rally from 1.9183 has also met target of 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9183 at 2.0046 too. With bearish divergence condition remains in weekly MACD and RSI, as well as Daily MACD and key 2.0106 resistance (92 high) not decisively taken out, 2.0132 could be the important medium term top already.

On the downside, break of 1.9733 support is needed to revive the case that fall from 2.0132 is still in progress first. Firm break of the medium term rising channel support (now at 1.9634) will indicate that the whole rally from 1.8090 has completed and add much credence to the case that an important medium term top is already formed and put focus to 1.9183 low. However, sustained trading above mentioned 2.0106 resistance will dampen the above interpretation and indicates that underlying bullishness in cable is much stronger then we thought. Further medium term rally should then be seen towards 61.8% projection of 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.0677

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USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2144; (P) 1.2193; (R1) 1.2226;

USD/CHF dips further to as low as 1.2146 in early US session. At this point, further decline is still expected to follow as long as 1.2207 minor resistance holds. Next downside target will be 1.2124 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.1993 to 1.2331 at 1.2122). Above 1.2207 will suggest fall from 1.2327 has possibly ended and bring recovery.

As discussed before, sustained trading below the short term rising trend line indicates the rise from 1.1993 has made a top at 1.2331 already. But with 1.2124 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.1993 to 1.2331 at 1.2122) remains intact, USD/CHF could be developing into sideway consolidation only. Firm break of 1.2124 is needed to confirm rally from 1.1993 has already completed and bring retest of this low.

In the bigger picture, previous break of 1.2282 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2282) confirms that fall from 1.2571 has already completed at 1.1993 with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and RSI. More importantly, this will increase the chance that USD/CHF is about to complete a medium term head and shoulder bottom formation (ls: 1.1919, h: 1.1878, rs: 1.1993). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement at 1.2350 and neckline resistance (1.2768 to 1.2571, now at 1.2334) will add more weight to this case. Stronger rally should then be seen to 1.2571 first and then 1.2768.

However, below 1.2124 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.1993 to 1.2331 at 1.2122) will indicate that rebound from 1.1993 has possible completed and save the case that recent choppy price actions could merely be part of a medium term triangle consolidation. And, down trend from 1.3283 should still resume after completing this consolidation in such case

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USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.02; (P) 121.47; (R1) 121.81;

USD/JPY's fall from 122.13 extends further to as low as 120.87 in early US session, just inches above mentioned 120.83 support. At this point, intraday bias will remain on the downside as long as 121.49 resistance holds. Break of 120.83 will encourage deeper fall to rising trend line support (now at 120.11). Touching of 121.49 will turn intraday outlook consolidative and bring recovery but sustained trading above 122.17 key resistance is needed to confirm underlying bullishness. Otherwise, another fall is still in favor even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, since the current rally from 115.13 is not clearly impulsive, it's being treated as part of a consolidation pattern that started at 122.17. Having said that, upside of this rise will likely be limited by 122.17 and bring another fall to retest 115.13 low before finishing the consolidation. Now, a short term top has likely formed at 122.13 after breakout from triangle consolidation (which is usually terminal) was limited by 122.17 key resistance and with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Focus is turned to 119.86 support and break will confirm this case.

However, strong break of 122.17 resistance will indicate that the correction from 122.17 is already completed at 115.13. That is, the current rise from there represents resumption of the whole up trend from 108.99. In such case, the up trend is expected to extend further to 61.8% projection of 108.99 to 122.17 from 115.13 at 123.28 first

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EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 163.84; (P) 164.21; (R1) 164.53;

EUR/JPY's retreat from 164.59 continues and dips to as low as 163.93. 4 hours MACD's stay below signal line suggest further downside is to be seen. But still, another rally cannot be ruled out as long as 162.94 support holds. However, upside momentum remains unconvincing, in particular with bearish divergence condition staying in 4 hours MACD and RSI and with daily MACD remains below signal line. Risk of short term reversal is still high. EUR/JPY could now be in formation of a diagonal triangle to conclude the rally from 150.75.

Hence, even though another rise could still be seen, upside will likely be limited by 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 on further loss of momentum and bring reversal. On the downside, break of 162.94 support will be the first warning that a top is formed. Further break of 162.18 will indicate that the diagonal triangle mentioned has likely completed. Deeper decline should then be seen to 161.05 support and then 159.60.

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY's previous break above medium term rising channel resistance suggests that strength of the rally from 150.75 is stronger than we originally thought. But still, interpretation of rally from 130.60 remains unchanged. First wave up ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure, targeting 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 and could terminate there. But sustained break of this projection level will indicate another strong medium term rally is just at its beginning towards 100% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 173.22

On the downside, rise from 150.75 could still resume as long as 159.60 support holds. However, sustained trading below 159.60 will warn that prior break of medium term rising channel resistance was merely a throw-over. Also, this will give a serious warning signal that the whole rise rise from 130.60 has ended. EUR/JPY should set to test the medium channel support (now at 154.12) in such case

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تحليل الدولار - ين
شراء
الاساب و الدخول موضح بالتشارتات
تحياتى للجميع
سليل عائله دعبس

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الاسهم الامريكية

سجلت أسعار الاسهم الامريكية هبوطا شديدا عند الاغلاق يوم الاربعاء بعد أن أظهرت بيانات تكاليف أعلى من المتوقع للعمالة مما زاد من المخاوف من التضخم وأسعار الفائدة.

كراون فوركس

[medo161441]

السلام عليكم
مارأيك فى الدخول شراء استرلينى دولار السعر 1.9832 والهدف هو1.9872
يعطيك العافيه اخى

[شريف دعبس]

السلام عليكم
مارأيك فى الدخول شراء استرلينى دولار السعر 1.9832 والهدف هو1.9872
يعطيك العافيه اخى

ارى و الله اعلم ان نقطه 790-780 مناسبه للشراء او ظهور لشمعه إنعاكاسيه
تحياتى

[شريف دعبس]

مستقبل اليورو...

أعلن البنك الأوربي قرار الفائدة الذي كان متوقع، حيث رفع البنك المركزي الأوروبي سعر الفائدة ربع نقطة، حيث أصبحت 4.0% من 3.75%، و يعتبر هذا الارتفاع الثامن منذ تسعة عشر شهرا للبنك الأوروبي الذي يمثل 13 بلد أوروبي، و هو أعلى سعر فائدة في المنطقة الأوروبية منذ ستة سنوات.


حيث تحدث السيد تريشية رئيس البنك المركزي الأوروبي، بعد إعلان قرار الفائدة إلى الصحافة، و قد كانت جميع أنظار الوسط الاقتصادي منشدة و مترقبة، من محللين اقتصاديين و المستثمرين، حيث مازال يصف السيد تريشية السياسة النقدية في المنطقة الأوروبية بالمرنة و أنها مازالت تلتزم بالتوقيت المحددة حفاظا على مستويات الأسعار على المدى المتوسط، على الرغم من إشارته إلى أن أسعار المستهلكين سوف تتعرض للانخفاض في الصيف في حين ستعود لتحسن في آخر السنة الحالية، حيث أكد أن مخاطر التضخم ما تزال في الاتجاه العلوي مما أدى إلى تقرير البنك المركزي على رفع الفائدة خوفا من أن تشعل مستويات النمو المرتفعة مستويات التضخم أكثر، و إنما دعا إلى المراقبة عن قرب للأوضاع الاقتصادية، على الرغم من تأكيده أن مستويات النمو في الاتجاة المرتفع .

حيث ارتفعت توقعات الاقتصاديين في البنك المركزي حول مستويات النمو و التضخم لنهاية هذه السنة، فمن المتوقع أن يتوسع الاقتصاد حول 2.6% في حين توقعات ارتفاع مستويات التضخم إلى 2.0%، في حين كانت آخر التوقعات في شهر آذار، ارتفاع التضخم إلى 2.5% و التضخم إلى 1.8%.


و من رؤيتنا الحذرة لخاطب السيد تريشية، فقد شهدنا أن الأسواق تتطرق إلى ردة الفعل الفورية دون التمحيص في مضمون الحديث، و ذلك ما أدى إلى انخفاض اليورو في ساعات الخطاب، أي احدث عنصر المفاجئة، حيث عدم إشارة رئيس البنك الأوروبي حرفيا للاحتراس (vigilance) ، و استبدالها بدعوتهم إلى الترقب عن كثب. على الرغم عدم نفي كلمات السيد تريشية رفع سعر فائدة جديدة أو حتى أكثر من مرة، و إنما ترك المجال لمراقبة سعر الفائدة الجديدة و أثرها في الأسواق بحذر، دلالة إلى أن من الممكن أن لا يحمل الاجتماع القادم رفع سعر فائدة جديدة بل الانتظار إلى اجتماعات أخرى قادمة.

حيث توصل المستثمرون و بعد أن تم استيعاب الحديث إلى ملخص الخطاب ، أن الاقتصاد الأوروبي سيتعرض إلى المزيد من رفعات الفائدة حتى نهاية السنة، فتتضارب التوقعات إلى ارتفاعها حتى تصل إلى 4.75% أو 5.0%. و إنما ليس في الاجتماع القادم، مما أدى إلى محاولات لتماسك حول مستويات 1.3500.

كراون فوركس

[شريف دعبس]

تعداد العاطلين

ظهر مؤشر تعداد العاطلين عن العمل للأسبوع الماضي في الولايات المتحدة ، اذ انخفض عدد الأشخاص الذين قدموا لطلبات إعانة الى 309 ألف شخص مقارنة بالسابق له عندما كان هنالك 310 ألف شخص قدموا لطلبات إعانة و هو ما توقع المحللون كذلك.

كراون فوركس

[شريف دعبس]

(GBP/JPY)

مازالت حركة الجنية الإسترليني أمام الين الياباني ثابتة فوق مستوى الدعم 240.70 ، فالأمس واليوم يدخل في محاولات لاستجماع الزخم الكافي عند هذا المستوى، ولذلك نراه يرتفع تدريجيا في بداية تداولاته اليوم من أدنى نقطة لامسها عند 240.55 . يبقى الهدف الرئيسي أمامه عند مستوى المقاومة 246.00.

الدعم

240.43

240.70

241.07

241.22

241.51

المقاومة
242.65

242.52

242.41

242.20

242.12

(EUR/JPY)

الموجة التصاعدية القوية التي بدأ بها زوج العملة اليورو مقابل الين ما زالت مستمرة ، فبعد أن لامس يوم أمس أعلى نقطة له عند المستوى 164.40 مقتربا من أعلى مستوى له على الإطلاق عاد وانخفض الزوج مجددا إثر عمليات البيع ليعود إلى مستوى الدعم الرئيسي 162.94 . المؤشرات التقنية تظهر تؤكد الموجة التصاعدية للزوج لكنه من المحتمل أن يتوقف مجددا عند مستوى المقاومة 163.83

الدعم

162.80
163.13
163.20
163.45
163.72

المقاومة
164.62
164.36
164.15
163.95
163.80

(EUR/GBP)

توقفت حركة الزوج اليورو مقابل الجنيه الإسترليني منذ أسبوع تقريبا عند أدنى مستوى له 0.6769 في الحركة التصحيحية التي كان قد بدا فيها منذ بداية الأسبوع الحالي ، ونظرا لقوة مستوى الدعم المذكور فقد يبقى الزوج متماسكا فوقه حتى يتمكن من تجاوز مستوى المقاومة الرئيسي 0.6790 .

الدعم

0.6746
0.6757
0.6760
0.6768
0.6771

المقاومة
0.6817
0.6811
0.6805
0.6796
0.6787

المعلومات الواردة في هذا ا لتقرير للإطلاع فقط . ولا تعني حث المطلع عليها للإتجار بأي عملة من العملات بعينها . ونحن لا نعد ولا نضمن بأن تبني اي من الإستراتيجيات المشار إليها سوف يفضي الى أرباح تجارية . وبالتالي فإن شركة كراون فوركس وموظفوها والشركات التابعة لها ليسو مسؤولين بأي شكل من الأشكال عن أية خسائر قد تنتج من الأخذ بالمعلومات الواردة فيه

[medo161441]

ارى و الله اعلم ان نقطه 790-780 مناسبه للشراء او ظهور لشمعه إنعاكاسيه

تحياتى

شكرا يا ابو الزوق كله
تحياتى وربنا يجعله فى ميزان حسناتك

[شريف دعبس]

Forex Elliott Wave Analysis:
GBP/USD

65% confidence - Top of wave (5) has possibly been formed at 2.0134 and correction to 1.9620/25 is likely.

As long as 1.9870/80 holds, the c-leg from 1.9733 is likely to extend marginal gain to 1.9980, however, reckon upside would be limited to 2.0000 and bring retreat later. Looking ahead, only break of 1.9820 would signal c-leg as well as entire B wave from 1.9677 has ended.

Our latest preferred count is that the A-leg of major correction from 2.0134 has ended at 1.9677 earlier and a-leg of wave B is now in progress which is likely to extend marginally, however, price should falter well below 1.9960/65 and bring b-leg retreat later.

On the bigger picture, the wave 5 as well as wave (5) has possibly ended at 2.0134 and major correction wave A has ended at 1.9677 as a double three (the break-down as indicated on the chart).

Only a daily close above 2.0000 would turn outlook bullish and gain towards pivotal resistance at 2.0075 cannot be ruled out