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USD/CHF

Despite edging lower to 1.1993 last week, USD/CHF lacked decisive downside momentum to go further and turned into choppy sideway trading instead. After all, the rebound from 1.1993 is still limited by mentioned 1.2105 resistance and hence, further decline is still mildly in favor. Break of 1.1993 will encourage further fall towards next medium term target of 1.1878 low. However, with bullish convergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI as background, break of 1.2105 resistance will suggest that the whole decline from 1.2282 has likely completed at 1.1993 already. In such case, much stronger rally should be seen towards 1.2282 high.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains bearish with USD/CHF staying below both 55 days EMA and 55 weeks EMA. Daily and weekly MACD are both still staying negative, supporting this view too. The preferred interpretation at this point is that the whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in progress with the first move from 1.3283 finished with three waves down to 1.1919. Subsequent rebound to 1.2768 was the interim correction and price actions from there represent resumption of such down trend. Further decline should be seen to 1.1878 low and sustained break will add more credence to this view and bring further medium term weakness towards 100% projection of 1.3283 to 1.1919 from 1.2768 at 1.1404.

However, note that USD/CHF is still bounded in wide range of 1.1878 to 1.2768. A rebound to above 1.2282 resistance will dampen this view and indicate that the fall from 1.2571 has completed after meeting 1.2027 fibo support. Another rise could then be seen to retest this high and then the upper end of the range at 1.2768.

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USD/JPY

USD/JPY's rebound from 117.60 extended further to as high as 119.74 last week but is still struggling to break through short term falling trend line resistance as well as 119.86 resistance. On the other hand, Friday's retreat was also support by mentioned 118.85 resistance turned support and thus short term outlook is rather neutral. On the one hand, further rally cannot be ruled out as long as USD/JPY stays above 118.85 support. But firm break above 119.86 resistance is needed to confirm underlying bullishness. Otherwise, the rise from 117.60 could merely be a rebound before another sharp decline. On the the other hand, a break below 118.85 is needed to indicate rebound from 117.60 has completed and bring fall towards 117.20 support.

In the bigger picture, our view remains unchanged so far. Previous break of medium term rising channel support (108.99, 114.41, 117.87) indicates the whole up trend from 108.99 has completed at 122.17. Weekly MACD's stay below signal line is still supporting this. The corrective nature of the rise from 108.99 swings favors back to the case that such medium term rally is merely part of a large scale consolidation that started at 121.38, with first leg completed at 108.99 and second leg completed at 122.17. The fall from 121.17 should then the third leg of such consolidation and deeper decline should at least be seen to below 114.02/41 support zone (61.8% retracement of 108.99 to 122.17 at 114.02) first with much possibility of further fall to retest 108.99 low.

However, sustained trading above 119.48 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13) will indicate that a stronger rebound is underway. Also, price actions from 122.17 is probably developing into sideway consolidation to rise from 108.99 only, instead of as the third leg of consolidation that started at 121.38. In such case, a rest of 122.17 high could then be seen. But still, firm break above this resistance is needed to confirm medium term rally from 108.99 has resumed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at best.

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EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY extended to new record high of 163.29 and closed strongly last week. Rise from 150.75 is still in progress as EUR/JPY remains comfortably inside the short term rising channel. From a short term angle, further rally is still expected to follow as long as EUR/JPY stays above 161.67 support. Next upside target will be 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64. Meanwhile, break of 161.67 support will indicate that a short term top has likely formed and bring retest towards 159.60 support.

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY's strong close above medium term rising channel resistance (now at 162.03 suggest that strength of the current rise from 150.75 could be much stronger than we thought. But still, with the interpretation of the rise from 130.60 remains unchanged with first wave ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure, targeting 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 and could terminate there.

On the downside, break of the short term channel support will indicate that rise from 150.75 has completed and deeper correction should then be seen towards 55 days EMA (now at 158.52). Also, this will give a serious warning signal that the whole rise rise from 130.60 has ended. EUR/JPY should set to channel the medium channel support (now at 152.83) in case this EMA is taken out decisively

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Forex Market Update: USD Strength Ahead Of Important Inflation Data

Will the US data at 12:30GMT today support USD-bulls? Still, a tough call when taken into consideration the weak growth figures we saw on Friday, confirming that the US economy is in stagflation lite.

MAJOR HEADLINES - PREVIOUS SESSION

USD

Big surprises on Friday as the USD GDP figures for Q1 were released. Market expected the Annualized GDP at 1.8 pct. and the price index at 3.0%, but the figures came out at 1.3 pct. and 4.0 pct. respectively, showing along with a higher than forecasted Personal Consumption that we are in a stagflation lite scenario with low growth and high inflation. The main downside surprises to GDP growth came on government spending and trade, in part because of assumptions the BEA made for missing March data; on the other hand, consumer spending and business equipment and software spending increased more than market expectations.

Today the PCE Core MoM/YoY, expected at 0.1 pct./2.2 pct., will be the data release to watch for. Also the PCE Deflator will be of significance. EURUSD touched 1.3680 after Friday's figures, and if we see a surprise to the downside in today's figures, this level and further upside will be in range once again. Tomorrow, the ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid are released, which will confirm the stagflation theme, if we again see a slump in the growth and an increase in inflation. Wednesday the ADP report will be the thing to watch for and finally on Friday, we have the Nonfarm Payrolls, currently expected at 100K.



Quoted at 10:30GMT

Notes from last week:

Notes/comments from BoE

UK: It looks like there's a lot of debate among BoE MPC members on the state of the housing market. For instance, Sentance comments that the strength of the housing market is a signal of strong demand in the sector. Barker, meanwhile, said low interest rates and a lack of supply was driving prices.

UK: Besley considers the rapid growth in M4 as a cause for concern. He is one of the members most sympathetic to the link between money and inflation.

UK: Here's a big change of view on the BoE MPC - super-dove Blanchflower says he agrees with super-hawk Besley that the growth of money supply is a cause of concern.

BoE's Tucker and Bean say relationship between money and CPI is not tight, but rapid money supply is not to be ignored.

BoE governor King had to be hawkish to a certain degree in his comments to the TSC, given the current inflation situation. It was hence no surprise to see comments on the lines of: determined to bring CPI back to target, must look at inflation expectations. However, he did not cause any need for panic - energy prices are expected to fall back. Important to look through the fog.

Notes from ECB comments:

• ECB's Garganas joins Constancio in his observation of the euro's strength. Garganas suggests that the stronger euro may weaken the case for further rate hikes. Note - there are a number of big issues to consider here. First, it's not the actual level of the euro that has bothered the ECB in the past, it's the steepness of its move. Second, at the moment this isn't so much euro strength as dollar weakness - that's a change from the last time the euro was pushing up (look at EURGBP for instance). Third, Garganas's comments exactly sum up the current situation at the ECB - the governing council is deeply divided. This kind of comment from Garganas is something that's likely to be heard a fair bit in the next few weeks. The ECB's council is split. It is likely to be difficult to read the ECB's intentions from here as the two sides play out their arguments in the press and across the news wires. The upside for the wires is that there's going to be plenty of opportunities for 'sources said' type stories.

Notes on the strength seen in the JPY overnight:

• JPY gains across the board after S&P lifted Japan's debt rating one level to AA from AA-, the first increase by the company since 1975. USDJPY falls from 119.01 to 118.20's in Asia. Key support still remains at 117.60 if further downside acceleration is to be seen. This is a step in the right direction for a stronger JPY, but as we have said all along its going to take more supporting fundamental data to change the longer term present uptrend. Though we will look to sell USDJPY below 117.60 which would give scope for a test of 116.00-50 in the short run, but still not enough to make us JPY bulls looking 1-2 months ahead.

Notes on today's data from the UK

• UK March M4 money supply firm at +1.0% mom and +12.8% yoy from Feb's +0.9% mom and 12.7% yoy. The market had been expecting a gain of 0.8% in the month and 12.5% in the year.
• The British Bankers' Association reported underlying mortgage lending up GBP5.1 bln in March, the same as Feb's rate. Looking through the details and total sterling lending dropped to GBP2.302 bln in March from GBP12.952 bln in feb. That reduction was largey due to a GBP8.379 bln mortgage securitisation. More interesting was the GBP84 mln repayment of credit card debt.
• From a technical standpoint today's break of 1.9990 brings the short-term bearish bias back, but we still think the pair is decent buy above the 1.9860 zone which is 50% retracement (from 1.9592 - 2.0133), fro a leg higher and a test of the highs from last week.

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Forex Mid-Day Technical Report

Dollar Still in Range, Saved by Solid ISM Manufacturing

Dollar edged lower against majors in early US session but was saved by much stronger than expected ISM manufacturing report and remains in established range. The headline ISM Manufacturing Index rose strongly from 50.9 to 54.7 in Apr, beating consensus of 50.9, and is the highest reading since Sep 05. The strong bound in the index suggests that the manufacturing index is probably regaining momentum for expansion. Two of the mostly watched components, the Employment Index and the Price Paid Index were also impressive. Employment indexrose strongly from 48.7 to 53.1, highest since Sep 06, and is supportive for a solid payroll report on Friday. Meanwhile, Price Paid Index continued its upside momentum and surged to 73.0, highest since Jul 06, indicating that pipeline inflation pressure is still accelerating.


Earlier today, Sterling was lifted mildly after CBI distributive trade index beat expectation by rising from 32 to 44, highest in two years. The report suggests that retail spending continued to grow solidly and is supportive to further tightening from BoE. Manufacturing PMI in UK came in at 53.9, a touch below consensus of 54.0.

Canadian dollar remains firm against the greenback after stronger than expected PPI inflation which showed PPI increased 1.3% mom, 4.8% yoy in Mar.

Bernanke's speech today will catch some attention on information on Fed's view after recent round of data.
CAD traders will also pay attention to BoC Dodge's speech on the catalyst for further rally in the CAD. RBA will announce rate decision in the upcoming Asian session and is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 6.25% after last week's disappointing Q1 CPI data

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EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3598; (P) 1.3637; (R1) 1.3686;

EUR/USD has another attempt to resume rally in early US session but after all, it's still bounded in recently established range of 1.3583 and 1.3681 high. As discussed before, risk of short term reversal remains high as bearish divergence condition continues to be displayed in 4 hours MACD and RSI. However, another rise could still be seen as long as EUR/USD stays above 1.3583 support. Break of 1.3583 is needed to indicate a short term top is formed and bring retreat towards the short term channel support (now at 1.3515). Above 1.3681 will bring another test of the short term rising channel resistance (now at 1.3720).

In the bigger picture, now, with 1.3668 target met, risk of medium term reversal is also increasing. As discussed before, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is treated is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend from 1.1639. With such interpretation we'd expect risk of medium term reversal to increase significantly as EUR/USD enter into resistance zone between 1.3668 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Hence, focus will then be on reversal signal.

However, sustained break of the short term channel support is needed to be the first warning of the completion of whole rally from 1.2865. Otherwise, EUR/USD's rise could continue to extend further to medium term rising channel resistance (now at 1.3810) and mentioned 1.3822 projection target. On the downside, break of the short term rising channel support will indicate the rise from 1.2865 has likely completed. Break of 1.3406/10 support will confirm such case and deeper decline should then be seen to 55 days EMA (now at 1.3374). More importantly, this will be the first warning that the rise rally from 1.2483 has completed, and thus, so is the whole up trend from 1.1639. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel support (now at 1.2952).

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GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9912; (P) 1.9970; (R1) 2.0052;

Cable attempted to break through mentioned 2.0058 resistance but failed so far. At this point, short term outlook remains neutral with 4 hours MACD staying above signal line and in positive region. On the upside, firm break of 2.0058 resistance will indicate the correction from 2.0132 has already completed and rally from 1.9183 has possibly resumed with retest of this high first. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.9855 support, with short term rising channel support (now at 1.9928) taken out, will warn that the rise from 1.9183 has already completed at 2.0132 and encourage deeper decline to 1.9723/26 support first.

In the bigger picture, we'd like maintain that risk of medium term reversal remains high and is increasing. Firstly, the whole up trend from 1.7047 is not clearly impulsive. One interpretation is that rally from 1.7047 ended with three waves up to 1.9024. Subsequent correction ended at 1.8090. Rally from 1.8090 has already met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.7047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067. Secondly, regardless of the larger trend, rise from 1.8090 can be interpreted as being a five wave sequence with first wave ended at 1.9142, second at 1.8517, third at 1.9913 and fourth at 1.9183. The channeling property supports this interpretation too. In such case, the fifth wave rally from 1.9183 has also met target of 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9183 at 2.0046 too. With bearish divergence condition remains in weekly RSI and Daily MACD and key 2.0106 resistance (92 high) not decisively taken out, cable could be forming a top at the current price level.

On the downside, break of 1.9723/26 support will indicate that the rise from 1.9183 has completed and put rising channel support (now at 1.9491) back into focus. Firm break of the channel support will indicate that the whole rally from 1.8090 has completed and add much credence to the case that an important medium term top is already formed and put focus to 1.9183 low. However, sustained trading above mentioned 2.0106 resistance will dampen the above interpretation and indicates that underlying bullishness in cable is much stronger then we thought. Further medium term rally should then be seen towards 61.8% projection of 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.0677.

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USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2033; (P) 1.2067; (R1) 1.2106;

At this point, USD/CHF is pressing mentioned 1.2105 resistance. As discussed before, with bullish convergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI as background, firm break of 1.2105 resistance will suggest that the whole decline from 1.2282 has completed at 1.1993 already. In such case, much stronger rally should be seen towards 1.2282 high. However, risk of another fall remains as long as USD/CHF is kept below this resistance and break of 1.1993 will encourage further fall towards next medium term target of 1.1878 low

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains bearish with USD/CHF staying below both 55 days EMA and 55 weeks EMA. Daily and weekly MACD are both still staying negative, supporting this view too. The preferred interpretation at this point is that the whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in progress with the first move from 1.3283 finished with three waves down to 1.1919. Subsequent rebound to 1.2768 was the interim correction and price actions from there represent resumption of such down trend. Further decline should be seen to 1.1878 low and sustained break will add more credence to this view and bring further medium term weakness towards 100% projection of 1.3283 to 1.1919 from 1.2768 at 1.1404.

However, note that USD/CHF is still bounded in wide range of 1.1878 to 1.2768. A rebound to above 1.2282 resistance will dampen this view and indicate that the fall from 1.2571 has completed after meeting 1.2027 fibo support. Another rise could then be seen to retest this high and then the upper end of the range at 1.2768.

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USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.20; (P) 119.47; (R1) 119.80;

USD/JPY has another dip in early US session but was supported by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 119.11). After all, as USD/JPY is still bounded in established range of 118.85 and 119.74, short term outlook remains neutral. On the upside, firm break above 119.86 resistance is needed to confirm underlying bullishness and bring stronger rally towards 122.17 high. On the downside, break of 118.85 support, with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line as back ground, will indicate a short term top is already formed at 119.74 and encourage further fall to short term rising channel support (now at 118.06) and then 117.60 support.

In the bigger picture, our view remains unchanged so far. Previous break of medium term rising channel support (108.99, 114.41, 117.87) indicates the whole up trend from 108.99 has completed at 122.17. Weekly MACD's stay below signal line is still supporting this. The corrective nature of the rise from 108.99 swings favors back to the case that such medium term rally is merely part of a large scale consolidation that started at 121.38, with first leg completed at 108.99 and second leg completed at 122.17. The fall from 121.17 should then the third leg of such consolidation and deeper decline should at least be seen to below 114.02/41 support zone (61.8% retracement of 108.99 to 122.17 at 114.02) first with much possibility of further fall to retest 108.99 low.

However, sustained trading above 119.48 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13) will indicate that a stronger rebound is underway. Also, price actions from 122.17 is probably developing into sideway consolidation to rise from 108.99 only, instead of as the third leg of consolidation that started at 121.38. In such case, a rest of 122.17 high could then be seen. But still, firm break above this resistance is needed to confirm medium term rally from 108.99 has resumed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at best.

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EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.57; (P) 162.84; (R1) 163.30;

Outlook in EUR/JPY remains unchanged. Even though EUR/JPY edged to new record high of 163.30 earlier today, upside momentum remains unconvincing. Firstly, 4 hours MACD is still staying below signal line, secondly, bearish divergence conditions remains in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Risk of short term reversal remains high. Nevertheless, the rise from 150.75 is still treated as in progress as long as EUR/JPY stays comfortably within the short term rising channel (support at 161.61) further rally is still in favor towards 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64. But, sustained break of this channel support will warn that the whole rise from 150.75 has completed and bring deeper correction 159.60 support first.

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY's strong close above medium term rising channel resistance (now at 162.03 suggests that strength of the current rise from 150.75 could be much stronger than we thought. But still, with the interpretation of the rise from 130.60 remains unchanged with first wave ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure, targeting 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 and could terminate there.

On the downside, break of the short term channel support will indicate that rise from 150.75 has completed and deeper correction should then be seen towards 55 days EMA (now at 158.68). Also, this will give a serious warning signal that the whole rise rise from 130.60 has ended. EUR/JPY should set to channel the medium channel support (now at 152.83) in case this EMA is taken out decisively

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Pro FX Commentary: AUDUSD

Price: 0.8243





Resistance: 0.8265 0.8290 0.8320 0.8357

Support: 0.8233 0.8200 0.8174 0.8146


Bias:
This morning's losses favors the downside with break of 0.8233
signaling a move to 0.82 & below


Daily Bullish: This morning's break below the recent 0.8239-56 lows is weighing heavy on price. Indeed, we would tend to prefer not to try and pick out a correction higher and suspect a breach of 0.8233 would encourage follow-through quite quickly. Thus for a move bullish stance we require a move back above 0.8265 which could then cause a test of 0.8290-00. However, only above here would bring the upside back under pressure for a return to the 0.8320 & 0.8357 peaks.

MT Bullish: Price has become fairly erratic and we therefore need to be flexible. A break back above 0.8337-57 would cause stronger follow-through higher to 0.8427-58 at least. (April 30th)

Daily Bearish: Loss of 0.8267-75 has seen a test of the 0.8233 low. This may see a temporary base but we feel it should break before long and trigger losses down to 0.8185 at least with potential for 0.8124-46 at least. Watch this support as it could hold. Next support is at 0.8100.


MT Bearish: This morning's retest of the 0.8233 low looks more bearish and should soon trigger breach for 0.8185 and probably the 0.8100-24 area en route the 0.8062 corrective low. (May 2nd)



30th April

The structure is less clear now with a possible triangle structure under development. A break of 0.8233-0.8337 would break the extremes and trigger the next larger move. At that point we shall review the wave count.

2nd May

We feel that Wave c should now progress to the 161.8% projection at 0.81465 at least and potentially to the 176.4% projection at 0.8124. We will follow this as cannot rule out further losses.

Ian Copsey

Global Forex Trading

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Forex Elliott Wave Analysis - USD/JPY

65% confidence: Dollar's rebound from 115.16 signals correction from 122.20 has ended but a daily close above 120.00 is needed to signal upmove has resumed to 120.95/00.

The greenback finally broke indicated resistance at 119.87, indicating the upmove from 115.16 has resumed and gain to 120.20 is likely, however, upside should be limited to 120.50/55 and price should falter well below 120.90/00.

On the bigger picture, early retreat from 122.20 indicates the medium term upmove from 108.97 has formed a top there as either the wave 1 of wave from 108.97 or is the C-leg top (in case this wave is unfolding as a diagonal triangle). Below 114.43 support would abort this count and risk weakness to 113.50.

On the downside, pullback should be limited to 119.65/70 and only below 119.30 would signal a temporary top has possibly been formed.

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Forex Daily Technical Report

Dollar Rebound Continues, Reversal Finally

Dollar's momentum carries on into early European session and rebounds further across the board. Technically speaking, we have been emphasizing the risk of medium term reversal in dollar, in particular against euro and sterling for some time as both pairs rally stalls at important resistance levels with sign of loss of momentum. Both pairs will likely attempt to test important near term support soon and break will likely trigger further dollar buying. Meanwhile, the strength in USD/CHF and USD/JPY could also serve as an earning warning of underlying strength in the buck.

Dollar's rebound today is partly supported by the rumors of a strong factory orders that beats market expectation of a 2.1% rise in Mar. The ADP employment report, which is usually used as a preview to Non-Farm Payroll, will also catch much interest today. ADP employment change is expected to stay steady by growing 100k jobs in APr.

Data from Eurozone are not providing much support to the Euro. German Manufacturing PMI rose mildly to 57.0 in Apr but miss expectation of 57.3. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.2% versus consensus of an improvement to 9.1%. Meanwhile Eurozone manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 55.4, also missed expectation of 55.7.
Commodity currencies retraces overnight. RBA kept rate unchanged at 6.25% as widely expected. Canadian dollar also retreats after dovish comments from BoC Dodge who said that the Loonie had strengthened outside the BoC's forecast range and that they will take that into account when making future policy

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نعم كلام سليم الدخول اما بعد اعاده اختبار الضلع العلوى للمثلث المتماثل (الترند الهابط المكسور)
او كسر المقاومه الاخيره

كمان اساسى
الاخبار جاءت سلبيه من اليابان
ملحوظه هامه جدا كل هذا توقع مالم يتدخل الكارى تريد بتسيل عقودهم
(un winding carry trade)
شكرا لمروك و مشاركتك الايجابيه
وتحياتى ليك مع اطيب الامانى بالتوفيق

للمتابعه
فى الرابط التالى
https://forum.arabictrader.com/showthread.php?t=28111&page=15

مازال الدولار - ين صاعد مع بعض حركات جنى الرباح نتيجه الاسبوع الذهبى فى اليابان الذى يعتير بمثابه عطله و استجمام
متابعه للين الان

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EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3571; (P) 1.3621; (R1) 1.3653;

EUR/USD once again failed to break though 1.3681 high and stay firmly above 04 high of 1.3668. Current retreat has pushed EUR/USD through mentioned 1.3583 support, indicating that a short term top is formed already. At this point, further decline is expected to be see towards short term rising channel support (now at 1.3518). As discussed before, risk of short term reversal remains high as bearish divergence condition continues to be displayed in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Firm break of the channel support will be the first warning that whole rally from 1.2856 has already completed at 1.3681 and deeper decline should be seen to 1.3406/10 support first. On the upside, sustained break of 1.3681 is now needed to confirm recent rally has resumed to retest short term rising channel resistance (now at 1.3724). Otherwise, risk remains on the downside.

In the bigger picture, now, with 1.3668 target met, risk of medium term reversal is also increasing. As discussed before, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is treated is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend from 1.1639. With such interpretation we'd expect risk of medium term reversal to increase significantly as EUR/USD enter into resistance zone between 1.3668 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Hence, focus will then be on reversal signal.

However, sustained break of the short term channel support is needed to be the first warning of the completion of whole rally from 1.2865. Otherwise, EUR/USD's rise could continue to extend further to medium term rising channel resistance (now at 1.3814) and mentioned 1.3822 projection target. On the downside, break of the short term rising channel support will indicate the rise from 1.2865 has likely completed. Break of 1.3406/10 support will confirm such case and deeper decline should then be seen to 55 days EMA (now at 1.3374). More importantly, this will be the first warning that the rise rally from 1.2483 has completed, and thus, so is the whole up trend from 1.1639. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel support-now at 1.2967