تحليلات و فرص على العملات

[شريف دعبس]

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9954; (P) 2.0012; (R1) 2.0045;

Cable's rebound from 1.9864 failed to break firmly above 2.0058 resistance and subsequent retreat has now turned 4 hours MACD down. Short term outlook is mildly bearish at this moment with a break of short term rising channel support (now at 1.9933). But sustained break of 1.9855 support is needed to confirm rise from 1.9183 has already completed at 2.0132. In such case, deeper decline should be seen to 1.9723/26 support first. On the upside, firm break of 2.0058 resistance will indicate the correction from 2.0132 has already completed and rally from 1.9183 has possibly resumed with retest of this high first.

In the bigger picture, we'd like maintain that risk of medium term reversal remains high and is increasing. Firstly, the whole up trend from 1.7047 is not clearly impulsive. One interpretation is that rally from 1.7047 ended with three waves up to 1.9024. Subsequent correction ended at 1.8090. Rally from 1.8090 has already met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.7047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067. Secondly, regardless of the larger trend, rise from 1.8090 can be interpreted as being a five wave sequence with first wave ended at 1.9142, second at 1.8517, third at 1.9913 and fourth at 1.9183. The channeling property supports this interpretation too. In such case, the fifth wave rally from 1.9183 has also met target of 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9183 at 2.0046 too. With bearish divergence condition remains in weekly RSI and Daily MACD and key 2.0106 resistance (92 high) not decisively taken out, cable could be forming a top at the current price level.

On the downside, break of 1.9723/26 support will indicate that the rise from 1.9183 has completed and put rising channel support (now at 1.9491) back into focus. Firm break of the channel support will indicate that the whole rally from 1.8090 has completed and add much credence to the case that an important medium term top is already formed and put focus to 1.9183 low. However, sustained trading above mentioned 2.0106 resistance will dampen the above interpretation and indicates that underlying bullishness in cable is much stronger then we thought. Further medium term rally should then be seen towards 61.8% projection of 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.0677.

[شريف دعبس]

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2074; (P) 1.2119; (R1) 1.2188;

USD/CHF's rebound from 1.1993 extends further by rising sharply to as high as 1.2139 so far. Break of 1.2105 resistance indicates that the fall from 1.2282 has already completed at 1.1993, with bullish convergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. At this point, as long as USD/CHF stays above 1.2100 resistance turned support, further rally should be seen towards 1.2282 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2282). Touching of 1.2100 will turn outlook consolidative first.

In the bigger picture, note that bullish convergence condition is also being displayed at in daily MACD and RSI, suggesting that the whole fall from 1.2571 has completed too, after meeting 78.6% retracement of 1.1878 to 1.2571 at 1.2026. Break of 55 days EMA (now at 1.2179) will add more credence to this case and bring further rally towards 1.2282 cluster resistance. However, note that weekly MACD remains below signal line which USD/CHF is still trading comfortably below 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.2358), medium term risk remains on the downside and the current rebound from 1.1993 could merely be part of a sideway consolidation to the whole fall from 1.2571.

Hence, focus will be on 1.2282 cluster resistance level. The original case is still in favor as long as this cluster resistance holds. That is the whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in progress with the first move from 1.3283 finished with three waves down to 1.1919. Subsequent rebound to 1.2768 was the interim correction and price actions from there represent resumption of such down trend. Further decline should be seen to 1.1878 low.

However, strong break of 1.2282 cluster resistance will dampen this view and indicate that the fall from 1.2571 has completed after meeting 1.2027 fibo support. Another rise could then be seen to retest this high and then the upper end of the range at 1.2768.

[شريف دعبس]

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.32; (P) 119.59; (R1) 120.10;

USD/JPY was once again supported by 4 hours 55 EMA and rise from 117.60 resumes by breaking 119.86 resistance, reaching as high as 120.14 so far. As discussed before, firm break of the falling trend line resistance (now at 119.32) and sustained trading above 119.86 high will indicate a stronger rally is underway. At this point, further rise is expected to follow as long as USD/JPY stays above 119.05 support. Next upside target will be 122.17 high. However, note that upside momentum is still not convincing yet with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line. Below 119.05 support will turn short term outlook neutral again and bring retreat.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 119.48 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13) will indicate that a stronger rebound is underway. Also, price actions from 122.17 is probably developing into sideway consolidation to rise from 108.99 only, instead of as the third leg of consolidation that started at 121.38. In such case, a rest of 122.17 high could then be seen. But still, firm break above this resistance is needed to confirm medium term rally from 108.99 has resumed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at best. On the downside, a firm break below 117.60 support is needed to confirm that rebound from 115.13 has completed. Otherwise, short term rise remains on the upside.

[شريف دعبس]

EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.81; (P) 163.05; (R1) 163.31;

EUR/JPY retreats mildly after reaching new record high of 163.30. At this point, outlook remains unchanged. Upside momentum remains unconvincing. Firstly, 4 hours MACD is still staying below signal line, secondly, bearish divergence conditions remains in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Risk of short term reversal remains high. Nevertheless, the rise from 150.75 is still treated as in progress as long as EUR/JPY stays comfortably within the short term rising channel (support at 161.88) further rally is still in favor towards 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64. But, sustained break of this channel support will warn that the whole rise from 150.75 has completed and bring deeper correction 159.60 support first.

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY's strong close above medium term rising channel resistance (now at 162.05 suggests that strength of the current rise from 150.75 could be much stronger than we thought. But still, with the interpretation of the rise from 130.60 remains unchanged with first wave ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure, targeting 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 and could terminate there.

On the downside, break of the short term channel support will indicate that rise from 150.75 has completed and deeper correction should then be seen towards 55 days EMA (now at 158.68). Also, this will give a serious warning signal that the whole rise rise from 130.60 has ended. EUR/JPY should set to channel the medium channel support (now at 152.83) in case this EMA is taken out decisively.

[شريف دعبس]

Forex Depth Analysis

Headlines: Sterling has eased back to trendline support at 1.9920

Sterling eased against a broadly firm dollar on Monday, moving further below the $2 mark as British data provided some signs that higher interest rates could be starting to take their toll on the housing market. Forward-looking lending data showed that British mortgage approvals fell 12 percent in March from a year earlier -- the
fourth consecutive month of falls.

The following technical analysis gives us a detailed lookout on what is expected to happen to GBP/USD.

The buying point is at 1.9920; triggered by the Strong Support and Fibonacci retracement 61.8%.

• Fibonacci retracement at 61.8% is the take profit line at 1.9993 as the first target and for long term investment the second target will be at 2.0020
• Previous support represents the stop loss at 1.9891

To strengthen our analysis; we use many other indicators, starting with MACD (Moving Averages convergence divergence); we notice the crossing of the two moving averages below the zero line, the shorter term moving average is faster than the long term and is pointing upwards with high volume. In order to find the power of the market, we use RSI (Relative Strength Index).With RSI, we can determine that it is a reversal market and it bounced on 30% line.

The zero line of the ROC (Rate of Change) is very important to understand the strength of the market and as we see on the graph; it breaks the trend line and moves upwards. We should always look at the trend line; and in this example it is a clear uptrend. For the momentum oscillator we have to concentrate at the zero line and the trend of the oscillator which breaks and move upwards. About stochastic we can determine strength of the buyers, and it gives us a very good signal about movement of the market.

Most of the indicators show us the strength of Sterling against the U.S. dollar and the continuation of the up trend that has occurred in the past five days.








Finotec Group Inc

[شريف دعبس]

Forex Technical Analytics

CHF

The pre-planned sales from the key resistance range were realized with attainment of the minimal assumed target. Further realization of a breakout variant for buyers with evinced 'support' of substantial growth of bullish activity by OsMA indicator gives grounds to buying priorities of planning for today. Hence, according to the overbought factor, we assume a probability of slight correction to the support range 1.2120/40, where it is recommended to evaluate activity development according to the charts of shorter time interval. For buys, on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.2180/1.2200 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.2240/60, 1.2280/1.2300. An alternative for sales will be below 1.2100 with the targets 1.2040/60, 1.1980/1.2000

[شريف دعبس]

GBP

The pre-planned breakout variant for buyers has been realized with loss of 5 points in attainment of the minimal assumed target. OsMA trend indicator having not evinced convincingness of sales activity growth as a reaction to overbought factor in the result of a test of the channel line '1' gives grounds to assume further trading within the ascending channel 1-2. Hence, we assume attainment of the channel line '2' in the range 1.9910/30, where it is recommended to evaluate activity development according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term buys, on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.9970/90, 2.0010/30 and/or further breakout variant up to 2.0070/90, 2.0110/30. An alternative for sales will be below 1.9890 with the targets 1.9830/50, 1.9770/90

[شريف دعبس]

JPY

The pre-planned breakout variant for buyers has been realized, but without attainment of the assumed targets. OsMA trend indicator having marked relativeness of bullish activity progress in the general plan is not convincing, thus, we assume a return to levels 119.60/70, where it is recommended to evaluate activity development according to the charts of shorter time intervals. For short-term buys, on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 120.00/20 and/or further breakout variant up to 120.60/80, 121.00/20. An alternative for sales will be below 119.40 with the targets 118.80/119.00

[شريف دعبس]

EUR

The pre-planned buys from the key support range have been realized with attainment of the minimal assumed target. OsMA trend indicator having marked the progress of bearish development as a result of the week's low renewal gives grounds to the corresponding priorities of planning for today. Hence, according to the oversold factor of the pair, we assume a probability of return to the range 1.3590/1.3610, where it is recommended to evaluate activity development according to the charts of shorter time intervals. For sales, on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.3510/30, 1.3460/80 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.3400/20, 1.3360/80. An alternative for buyers will be above 1.3720 with the targets 1.3760/80, 1.3800/20

[شريف دعبس]

Daily Technical Analysis

Spotlight: EURUSD & GBPUSD

EURUSD

The 1.3668 level proved to be strong resistance for another day pushing the EurUsd under 1.3600. Yesterday's move down combined with the overnight range got the pair very close to the 1.3523/40 area we mentioned in our previous market commentaries, this zone could very well act as support and turn the pair back up on route to clear the 1.3668 high and to go for 1.3700 maybe even higher. If, on the other hand the 1.3523/40 area doesn't hold we will have to look lower for eventual support levels, the next one being March 2005 high of 1.3483 followed by March 21st high of 1.3410 and December 3rd high of 1.3365.

Resistance Levels

• 1.4532 - March 2005 High
• 1.3668 - December 2004 High

Support Levels

• 1.3540 -April 23rd Low
• 1.3483 -March 2005 High
• 1.3410 - March 21st High
• 1.3365 - December 3rd High
• 1.3300 - January 7th High

[شريف دعبس]

GBPUSD

Cable tried to take out the 2.0065 resistance yesterday but it just didn't have enough strength, and after it failed there price fell and closed the day under the 2.0000 level. If price holds on at the current levels, we're trading around April 24th low of 1.9950, we could see another move towards the 2.00 level which has been acting as a magnet in the last couple of weeks; if that is the case and we have another push at 2.00 and price gets above it we can set our sites on the resistance at 2.0065 followed by April 18th high at 2.0133. Conversely if cable doesn't maintains current trading levels and falls bellow 1.9950 we have our next support at 1.9914 January 23rd high as potential point where price might reverse back up, if that level doesn't hold the next major support area is at 1.9850/60, lower down we have 1.9750 and even lower February's 27th high of 1.9670





Resistance Levels

• 2.0200 - Round number
• 2.0133 - April 18th High
• 2.0063 - April 25th high

Support Levels

• 1.9950 - April 24th Low
• 1.9914 - January 23rd High
• 1.9850 - December 1st 2006 High
• 1.9750 - pre-tested level
• 1.9670 - February 27th High

[شريف دعبس]

Forex Technical Analysis

EUR/USD

Current level-1.3571

The currency pair is in an uptrend unfolding from the 1.2484 bottom and probably ahead of a significant reversal on weekly basis. The technical indicators are rising and the trading is situated above the 50-day and the 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.3161 and 1.2923. On the Elliott Wave count we are probably finalizing C of (B)-(intermediate) and a development of (C)-(intermediate) lies ahead.

For today we expect a test of the 1.3538 support zone.

Daily resistance: 1.3665, 1.3728

Daily support: 1.3317, 1.3053, 1.2867, 1.2458

[شريف دعبس]

USD/JPY

Current level-119.91

The upmove from 114.47 has ended at 122.06 (12.02.07) and a local bottom was set at 115.16. The technical indicators are neutral on daily basis and trading is situated above the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 118.47 and 118.03.

We think, that one more leg towards 120.35 is needed before a change of the direction and a slide to 116.01

Daily resistance: 120.35, 122.27, 123.27

Daily support: 114.47, 113.96, 113.40

[شريف دعبس]

GBP/USD

Current level-1.9931

The strong rally above 1.9179 has shown, that the corrective phase has ended at 1.8836 and probably a 'terminal impulse' is on the run. The pair has reached 2.0133, a new high for the past 26 years.

The corrective recovery is almost completed with the local bottom at 1.9868 and we expect the uptrend to be renewed, targeting 2.0227. Our risk limit will be set at 1.9782.


Daily resistance: 2.0085, 2.0224, 2.0483

Daily support: 1.9179, 1.8663, 1.8517, 1.8380, 1.8220, 1.8000-sentiment

DeltaStock Inc. - Online Forex & Securities Broker

[شريف دعبس]

JPY is at risk of a reversal at any time

Wed, 02 May 2007 20:56:44 GMT
by John Gajewski




Current: 120.08; Range today: 119.50/120.30

Dollar/Yen hit 120.25 yesterday and so has achieved the basic requirement for the corrective rally from 115.15. It may still extend a little higher today and perhaps to as much as 121.10, but a reversal is possible at any time. An inability to hold above 119.90 will be the preliminary sign of weakness but it will take a break of 119.00 to confirm it. Dollar/Yen should then fall to 117.60 initially and then return to 115.15. Later it should fall towards 108.95. Only a rise through 121.10 will suggest that a longer-term rally is developing.

After testing 162.40 initially yesterday Euro/Yen rebounded back to 163.35. This rise should extend a little further today before easing back to 163.00. Euro/Yen is now at a key point in its trend. Although its upside potential is channel resistance at 165.00, the sequence from 159.60 is in its final stages and any level above 163.35 will achieve the basic requirements for the move. A reversal is possible at any time. A break of 162.40 will confirm it and Euro/Yen should return to 159.60. Such a move will also suggest that the uptrend from March’s 150.75 low is also over. But while any drop holds at 163.00 over the next couple of days, Euro/Yen can still push towards 165.00
Aussie/Yen dropped back to 98.65 yesterday and is attempting to rally again. This rise may make a new high but it is severely limited to just a few points above 99.45. A secondary drop back to 97.00 is likely to follow