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Currency Crosses: Euro Crosses
May Bounce Before Turning Down

EURJPY

The break above 159.61 opened up a move to the top of the EURJPY channel, with a short-term reversal leaving the pair off of the accompanying rising trendline below. A sharp intraday reversal on 4/19 showed that traders are not yet willing to push the pair beyond these levels, leaving scope for a retest of resistance at the 162.44 mark. A further short-term bounce off of the rising trendline seems a distinct possibility, with a reversal to leave the longer term trend intact. A break below 160.50 negates the bullish scenario, with further support seen at the 4/19 low of 159.60.

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EURCHF

Price action has been unsurprisingly similar to that of the EURJPY, as the break above significant resistance led to a test of the top of the EURCHF month-long channel. Short-term price objectives remain at the top of the rising channel at 1.6511. As we said last week, “this is where the rally from 1.5035 would equal the 1.4386-1.5862 rally and is a potential reversal point.” With oscillators well into overbought territory, price is likely to show a fairly strong reversal off of a test at 1.6511. A break below a rising trendline at 1.6350 opens the pair to medium-term declines, with congestion at 1.6200 to offer the next meaningful level of resistance.

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EURGBP

The EURGBP has been able to hold its medium-term uptrend on a successful reversal at 0.6752, but a newly formed downward-sloping line from above leaves the currency consolidating within a wedge through recent weeks. The pair remains at a critical juncture. On one end, a break below 0.6750 eyes a further move to the 50% Fibonacci of 0.6535-0.6867 at 0.6701 and beyond. To the topside, a successful move above the 4/16 high of 0.6835 leaves the 7/7/2006 high of 0.6961 in play. Through the short term, expect tight ranges to persist in the absence of a move beyond aforementioned support and resistance marks





Glossary of Terms
CCI(20) - 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 - bullish
0 > - bearish
> 100 - extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(21) - 21 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 - bullish
50 > - bearish
> 70 - overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ∆ - MACD slope (MACD - MACD[1])
> 0 - bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(8) - 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
> 0 - bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) - 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium - 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low - 25th percentile* >
ADX(14) - 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
> 30 - strong
30 > - weak
*measured against past 3 months



DailyFX

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Forex Elliott Wave Analysis

GBP/USD

65% confidence - Cable's firm breach of 2.0000 and subsequent rally should extend marginally to 2.0100, however, 2.0150 should hold.

Cable's break of 1.9985 support confirms our view that wave iii has formed a top at 2.0134 earlier last week and correction in wave iv is still unfolding, however, reckon downside would be limited to 1.9940 and bring resumption of upmove in wave v later this week.

To recap, the correction from 1.9917 is wave (4) is labeled as a double three with 1st a-b-c ended at 1.9402, followed by x wave at 1.9679 and 2nd a-leg at 1.9432, 2nd b-leg at 1.9675, c-leg is a 5-waver with i: 1.9517, ii: 1.9653, iii: 1.9185, wave iv: 1.9434 and v: 1.9213.

On the bigger picture, wave v from 1.8517 is labeled as (1): 1.8859, (2): 1.8674, (i) : 1.9180, (ii): 1.8835 and (iii): 1.9849 and wave (iv) has ended at 1.9260 and wave (v) would extend marginally to 2.0185/90 but 2.0230 would cap upside.

A firm break of 2.0070 would indicate low has possibly been formed but break of 2.0095/00 is needed to confirm upmove has resumed and bring an exhaustive rise to 2.0150.

Preferred wave count on 4 Hours chart




Wave Dynamics

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Daily Technical Briefing: Dollar Gets Footing and Looks to Extend Gains

Technical Overview

• Euro Rolls Over
• Japanese Yen Bearish (USDJPY Bullish) Short Term Pattern
• British Pound Decline Remains Corrective
• Swiss Franc Decline (USDCHF Rally) Is Impulsive
• Canadian Dollar Chopping Lower
• Australian Dollar Approaches Trendline Support
• New Zealand Dollar Decline Corrective So Far

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EUR/USD

The reversal that we have been looking for may be underway Last week’s candle was a shooting star and daily RSI has rolled over from above 70. The EURUSD has come into initial support at 1.3560. Additional bearish potential increases with 5 waves down and so far there are only 3 waves down from 1.3637. If the larger trend has reversed, then we should see some consolidation/bounce in a 4th wave before a new low under 1.3549. 1.3586 is key resistance.

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USD/JPY

The USDJPY price action is bullish above 118.22. The 5 wave rally from 117.60 to 118.98 indicates that the larger trend is up and is most likely the first wave in a new 5 wave rally. The sharp correction to 118.22 is wave 2, and a rally above 118.98 would confirm that wave 3 up is underway. Measured objectives for wave 3 are at 119.60 and 120.45 (100% and 161.8% extensions of 117.60-118.98 / 118.22). Again, 118.22 needs to hold as support in order for the most bullish count to remain at the forefront

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GBP/USD

The doji made on 4/18 along with divergent RSI on the daily gives scope to a reversal. Still, the decline from the top is corrective, which leaves GBPUSD open to another high. Coming under 1.9972 indicates that a deeper correction is taking place. A measured objective for would be at 1.9921/24, which is the confluence of the 38.2% of 1.9589-2.0131 / 100% of 2.0131-1.9984 / 2.0068.

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USD/CHF

We mentioned Friday that “yesterday’s hammer at critical support keeps focus on the bullish reversal scenario. In fact, there are 5 small waves up from yesterday’s low at 1.2000 (an important psychological figure). Support resides at 1.2037. The longer term turn wave structure supports a reversal (higher) as well. A rally above 1.2281 would give credence to this view and suggest that an important low is in place.” The next short term resistance level is 1.2150 and 1.2056 should be support.

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USD/CAD

The USDCAD may be forming a base from which to work higher. There is little doubt that the decline from 1.1825 is a 3rd wave. Therefore, any rally should be treated like a correction as a 5th wave decline will eventually take the USDCAD to lower levels. Initial resistance is the 4/19 high at 1.1309. The next support level is the 10/30/2006 low at 1.1176.

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AUD/USD

Recent commentary stated that “daily oscillators (CCI and RSI) are overbought and divergent with recent highs. Also, the break that occurred at .8000 was from a triangle and triangle breakouts are terminal (meaning that they are eventually retraced). The daily chart below shows the triangle (a-b-c-d-e) and the 5 wave rally that has ensued and RSI. With daily oscillator action, an extreme risk reversal rate (1 month 25 delta options) and the Aussie at former longer term resistance, we are looking for a reversal.” A 5 wave decline from .8390 sets the stage for more downside action and we are bearish against the high (.8390) on a break of trendline support near .8310.

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NZD/USD

Trendline support for Kiwi is not until about .7380 but the very short term wave count is bearish as there are 5 waves down from .7482 to .7428. This correction should be followed by another leg down with potential support at the mentioned trendline. We’ll watch the form of the decline in order to determine the proper course of action.

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Daily Market Commentary - Fundamental Outlook

€

The euro weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3540 level and was capped around the $1.3605 level. Technically, today's intraday low was just below the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.3255 to $1.3635. The dollar gained ground after U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson was quote as saying he is a "big believer in a strong dollar" late Friday. Also, a media report quoted European Central Bank member Garganas as saying "to the extent that the strength of the euro helps contain inflationary pressure, there is less reason to raise interest rates," a comment that Garganas subsequently denied. The common currency took little notice of the French presidential election over the weekend in which Sarkozy and Royal will go into a run-off election on 6 May. Also, Ecofin finance ministers met over the weekend to discuss the euro and the eurozone economy and were generally sanguine about the common currency's level. Traders await tomorrow's German Ifo survey on business confidence. Data released in the eurozone today confirmed that the bloc's 2006 budget deficit amounted to 1.6% of GDP, down from 2.5% in 2005. In U.S. news, traders await March existing home sales today tomorrow along with April consumer confidence results. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3490/ 1.3445 levels.

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥119.00 figure and was supported around the ¥118.20 level. Technically, today's intraday high was just below the 23.6% retracement of the move from ¥109.00 to ¥122.15. The yen reversed course overnight after traders pushed the yen higher following an upgrade by Standard & Poors to Japan's long-term sovereign ratings. Data released in Japan overnight saw March supermarket sales fall 1.5% y/y, the fifteenth consecutive monthly decline. Carry trades appear to be alive and well as there is little indication that Bank of Japan will be lifting interest rates anytime soon. A news report surfaced that Japan may form a new agency to manage its massive US$ 900 billion+ war chest of foreign reserves. The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 0.02% to close at ¥17,455.37. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥118.05/ 117.40 levels. The euro came off marginally vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥160.45 level and was capped around the ¥161.80 level. The British pound moved higherthe Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥97.80 level. The Chinese yuan weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 7.7247 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 7.7179. People's Bank of China advisor Fan Gang reiterated the yuan's exchange rate will not resolve China's external imbalances. vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥238.30 level while

₤

The British pound lost ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.9970 level and was capped around the $2.0060 level. Robust mortgage lending data were released in the U.K. today. CML and BSA reported gross mortgage lending reached a record performance in March while Halifax reported U.K. house prices appreciated 2.8% in Q1 2007. The M4 money supply was up 12.8% y/y in March while M4 lending expanded ₤12.7 billion. The Ernst & Young ITEM Club report was released overnight and indicated the U.K. is "skating on thin ice" with exceptionally high debt levels. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.9925 level. The euro came off marginally vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.6775 level and was capped around the ₤0.6795 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.2125 level and was supported around the CHF 1.2055 level. Technically, today's intraday high was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from CHF 1.2435 to CHF 1.2025. Traders await tomorrow's UBS March consumption indicator. Dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.2155/ 1.2215 levels. The euro and British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested offers around the CHF 1.6430 and CHF 2.4240 levels, respectively.

A$

The Australian dollar depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the Aussie tested bids around the US$ 0.8320 level and was capped around the $0.8375 level. Stops were hit below the $0.8335 level, representing the 23.6% retracement of the move from $0.8150 to $0.8390. Data released in Australian today saw the final producer price index for commodities remain unchanged in the March quarter from the December quarter, below expectations of a +0.6% gain. Traders sold the Aussie on this news on reduced expectations that Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates next month. Australian dollar bids are cited around the US$ 0.8300/ 0.8270 levels.

C$

The Canadian dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the C$ 1.1215 level and was capped around the C$ 1.1240 level. Traders await Bank of Canada's interest rate decision tomorrow. U.S. dollar bids are cited around the C$ 1.1150 level.

Gold/ Silver

Gold weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the yellow metal tested bids around the US$ 686.48 level and was capped around the $693.35 level. The U.S. dollar's intraday gains contributed to gold's losses. Silver gained marginal ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the pair tested offers around the US$ 13.98 level and was supported around the $13.82 level.

Crude Oil

Crude oil appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as light, sweet NYMEX crude oil futures for June delivery tested offers around the US$ 64.61 level and was supported around the $63.75 level. The European Union agreed to implement sanctions against Iran and this led to gains in energy prices, as did lingering concerns that violence could return to Nigeria following that country's presidential elections this weekend.




DISCLAIMER : GCI's Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

GCI Financial

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Forex Mid-Day Technical Report

Dollar's Recovery Continues, But Not Yen's

Dollar's recovery continues in early US session as traders continue to reduce exposure on a week that's full of important growth data from the US. The Japanese yen fails to hold on to its earlier gains after markets calm down from earlier brief boost from S&P upgrade. Meanwhile, Aussie continues to head lower as traders are readjusting their positions ahead of tomorrow's Q1 CPI release after today's disappointing from Q1 PPI.

Markets expect inflation in Australia to rebound by rising 0.6% qoq after a surprise fall of -0.1% in Q4. With yoy rate still staying above RBA's target of 2-3% in Q4 (3.3%), the data should confirm the market expectation that RBA will have another rate hike in May. However, any downside surprise that drag the yoy rate further close from 3.3% to 3.0% will dampen such expectation and put much pressure on the Aussie.

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EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3569; (P) 1.3603; (R1) 1.3620;

EUR/USD's retreat from 1.3636 continues into US session and break of 1.3558 minor support indicates that a short term top is formed at 1.3636 with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. At this point, further decline should be seen towards short term rising channel support (now at 1.3465). Above 1.3605 minor resistance will suggest that retreat from 1.3636 has completed. But break of 1.3636 is needed to confirm recent rally has resumed for 1.3668 (04 high). Otherwise, consolidation could still continue and risk of another fall remains.

In the bigger picture, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is treated is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend from 1.1639 and is set to retest 1.3668. With such interpretation we'd expect risk of medium term reversal to increase significantly as EUR/USD enter into resistance zone between 1.3668 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Hence, focus will then be on reversal signal.

On the downside break of 1.3406/10 support (61.8% retracement of 1.3253 to 1.3636 at 1.3399) will indicate that the rise from 1.2865 has completed and deeper decline should then be seen to 55 days EMA (now at 1.3311). More importantly, this will be the first warning that the rise rally from 1.2483 has completed, and thus, so is the whole up trend from 1.1639. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel support - now at 1.2935