تحليلات و فرص على العملات

[ألقناص]

مشكور يا دعبس باشا على هذا المجهود الرائع

[شريف دعبس]

كلام سليم ويميل للصعود فعلا لكن راى الشخصى الدخول شراء يكون اما من ملامسة الترند الصاعد او بعد كسر المقاومة الاخيرة عند 119.72

تقبل ودى

نعم كلام سليم الدخول اما بعد اعاده اختبار الضلع العلوى للمثلث المتماثل (الترند الهابط المكسور)
او كسر المقاومه الاخيره

كمان اساسى
الاخبار جاءت سلبيه من اليابان
ملحوظه هامه جدا كل هذا توقع مالم يتدخل الكارى تريد بتسيل عقودهم
(un winding carry trade)
شكرا لمروك و مشاركتك الايجابيه
وتحياتى ليك مع اطيب الامانى بالتوفيق

[شريف دعبس]

مشكور يا دعبس باشا على هذا المجهود الرائع

تسلم يا غالى المهم الافاده و الاستفاده
ومنتظر ابداعاتك
تحياتى

[شريف دعبس]

رؤيه فنيه للوقود النووى للطيران
الدولار - ين

تميل الى الصعود
والاسباب فى التشارتات

انتظروا مزيداً من التشارتات
وتوضيح اكثر

تحياتى للجميع
سليل عائله دعبس

للمتابعه
فى الرابط التالى
https://forum.arabictrader.com/showthread.php?t=28111&page=15

[شريف دعبس]

Forex Daily Technical Report

Dollar Mildly High ahead of PCE, Yen on Risk Aversion

Euro edges lower today on the back of pressure in EUR/JPY as well as disappointing German retail sales data. China's central bank increased reserve requirements by 50 basis points to 11% to cool economy. Such move has prompted fear of further tightening from PBoC and in turn triggered some carry trade unwinding in the Japanese yen. However, the move from China is actually not that unexpected and the rise in yen is exaggerated by the lack of liquidity in thin holiday markets. After all, most pairs are still in range awaiting major data from the US.

M3 money supply and CPI estimate will be the main focus in the European session. Money supply growth continued to defy expectation by accelerating to 17 years high of 10% in Feb. Such strong growth in M3 strengthened the case for further tightening from ECB as it's used as an indication of future inflation. M3 is again expected to retreat slightly to 9.7% in Mar but even in case the growth does moderate, a mild pullback won't change the expectation that ECB's cycle is not over yet. Eurozone CPI CPI is expected to drop slightly from 1.9% to 1.8% in Apr. Other data include EUrozone consumer sentiments and business climate, as well as Gfk consumer confidence from UK.

Main focus in the US session will be on Mar personal income and spending. While income is expected to steadily grow at 0.6%, consumption is expected to slow slightly from 0.6% to 0.5%. The Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, the core PCE deflator is expected to increase 0.1% mom only, dragging the yoy rate from 2.4% to 2.2%. Even though this reading, if comes in as expected, is still above Fed's comfort zone of 1-2%, if could ease Fed member's fear that inflation is back accelerating after Core PCE deflator rebounded from 2.2% to 2.4% in Feb. Coupled with resumed moderation in core CPI released earlier this month, there will be some evidence that Fed's prior rate hikes are still playing the effect in moderating inflation. If such trend continues, Fed members's focus will start to lean more towards concern on slowing growth and could prompt increased speculation of a rate cut in Q4.

[شريف دعبس]

EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3595; (P) 1.3638; (R1) 1.3691;

EUR/USD's retreat from 1.3681 continues today but after all it's still staying in tight range. As discussed before, even though EUR/USD made a new record high of 1.3681 last week, the break above 04 high of 1.3668 was not decisive. Upside momentum is neither convincing as bearish divergence conditions remains in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Risk of a short term reversal remains high. Though, another risk could still be seen as long as EUR/USD stays above 1.3605 support. Break of 1.3583 will suggest a short term top is formed and bring retreat towards the short term channel support (now at 1.3506).

In the bigger picture, now, with 1.3668 target met, risk of medium term reversal is also increasing. As discussed before, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is treated is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend from 1.1639. With such interpretation we'd expect risk of medium term reversal to increase significantly as EUR/USD enter into resistance zone between 1.3668 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Hence, focus will then be on reversal signal.

However, sustained break of the short term channel support is needed to be the first warning of the completion of whole rally from 1.2865. Otherwise, EUR/USD's rise could continue to extend further to medium term rising channel resistance (now at 1.3791) and mentioned 1.3822 projection target. On the downside, break of the short term rising channel support will indicate the rise from 1.2865 has likely completed. Break of 1.3406/10 support will confirm such case and deeper decline should then be seen to 55 days EMA (now at 1.3354). More importantly, this will be the first warning that the rise rally from 1.2483 has completed, and thus, so is the whole up trend from 1.1639. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel support - now at 1.2952

[شريف دعبس]

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9877; (P) 1.9959; (R1) 2.0053;

Cable edges lower today as rebound from 1.9864 is still limited by 2.0058 resistance. As discussed before, the correction from 2.0132 should still be in progress as long as 2.0058 holds and short term risk remains on the downside. Sustained break of 1.9855 support, with short term rising channel support (now at 1.9896) taken out, will warn that the rise from 1.9183 has already completed at 2.0132 and encourage deeper decline to 1.9723/26 support first. On the upside, above 2.0058 will indicate the correction from 2.0132 has already completed and rally from 1.9183 has possibly resumed.

In the bigger picture, we'd like maintain that risk of medium term reversal remains high and is increasing. Firstly, the whole up trend from 1.7047 is not clearly impulsive. One interpretation is that rally from 1.7047 ended with three waves up to 1.9024. Subsequent correction ended at 1.8090. Rally from 1.8090 has already met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.7047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067. Secondly, regardless of the larger trend, rise from 1.8090 can be interpreted as being a five wave sequence with first wave ended at 1.9142, second at 1.8517, third at 1.9913 and fourth at 1.9183. The channeling property supports this interpretation too. In such case, the fifth wave rally from 1.9183 has also met target of 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9183 at 2.0046 too. With bearish divergence condition remains in weekly RSI and Daily MACD and key 2.0106 resistance (92 high) not decisively taken out, cable could be forming a top at the current price level.

On the downside, break of 1.9723/26 support will indicate that the rise from 1.9183 has completed and put rising channel support (now at 1.9459) back into focus. Firm break of the channel support will indicate that the whole rally from 1.8090 has completed and add much credence to the case that an important medium term top is already formed and put focus to 1.9183 low. However, sustained trading above mentioned 2.0106 resistance will dampen the above interpretation and indicates that underlying bullishness in cable is much stronger then we thought. Further medium term rally should then be seen towards 61.8% projection of 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.0677.

[شريف دعبس]

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2005; (P) 1.2055; (R1) 1.2106;

USD/CHF rebounds to as high as 1.2088 today but after all it's still limited below mentioned 1.2105 resistance. Outlook remains unchanged. Further decline is still mildly in favor as long as 1.2105 holds. . Break of 1.1993 will encourage further fall towards next medium term target of 1.1878 low. However, with bullish convergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI as background, break of 1.2105 resistance will suggest that the whole decline from 1.2282 has completed at 1.1993 already. In such case, much stronger rally should be seen towards 1.2282 high.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains bearish with USD/CHF staying below both 55 days EMA and 55 weeks EMA. Daily and weekly MACD are both still staying negative, supporting this view too. The preferred interpretation at this point is that the whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in progress with the first move from 1.3283 finished with three waves down to 1.1919. Subsequent rebound to 1.2768 was the interim correction and price actions from there represent resumption of such down trend. Further decline should be seen to 1.1878 low and sustained break will add more credence to this view and bring further medium term weakness towards 100% projection of 1.3283 to 1.1919 from 1.2768 at 1.1404.

However, note that USD/CHF is still bounded in wide range of 1.1878 to 1.2768. A rebound to above 1.2282 resistance will dampen this view and indicate that the fall from 1.2571 has completed after meeting 1.2027 fibo support. Another rise could then be seen to retest this high and then the upper end of the range at 1.2768.

[شريف دعبس]

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.08; (P) 119.41; (R1) 119.93;

While yen recovers in crosses, USD/JPY remains bounded in tight range. At this point, USD/JPY is still struggling to take out short term falling trend line resistance as well as 119.86 resistance. Short term outlook remains neutral. On the one hand, further rally cannot be ruled out as long as USD/JPY stays above 118.85 support. But firm break above 119.86 resistance is needed to confirm underlying bullishness. Otherwise, the rise from 117.60 could merely be a rebound before another sharp decline. On the the other hand, a break below 118.85 is needed to indicate rebound from 117.60 has completed and bring fall towards 117.20 support.

In the bigger picture, our view remains unchanged so far. Previous break of medium term rising channel support (108.99, 114.41, 117.87) indicates the whole up trend from 108.99 has completed at 122.17. Weekly MACD's stay below signal line is still supporting this. The corrective nature of the rise from 108.99 swings favors back to the case that such medium term rally is merely part of a large scale consolidation that started at 121.38, with first leg completed at 108.99 and second leg completed at 122.17. The fall from 121.17 should then the third leg of such consolidation and deeper decline should at least be seen to below 114.02/41 support zone (61.8% retracement of 108.99 to 122.17 at 114.02) first with much possibility of further fall to retest 108.99 low.

However, sustained trading above 119.48 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13) will indicate that a stronger rebound is underway. Also, price actions from 122.17 is probably developing into sideway consolidation to rise from 108.99 only, instead of as the third leg of consolidation that started at 121.38. In such case, a rest of 122.17 high could then be seen. But still, firm break above this resistance is needed to confirm medium term rally from 108.99 has resumed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at best.

[شريف دعبس]

EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.55; (P) 162.90; (R1) 163.61;

EUR/JPY retreats mildly from record high of 163.29 today. Mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI suggest that upside momentum is diminishing. Below 162.18 minor support will indicate an intraday top is formed and bring further pull back. However, note that rise from 150.75 should still be in progress as long as EUR/JPY remains comfortably inside the short term rising channel (support at 161.35) and further rally is still in favor towards 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64. But, sustained break of this channel support will warn that the whole rise from 150.75 has completed and bring deeper correction 159.60 support first.

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY's strong close above medium term rising channel resistance (now at 162.03 suggests that strength of the current rise from 150.75 could be much stronger than we thought. But still, with the interpretation of the rise from 130.60 remains unchanged with first wave ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure, targeting 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 and could terminate there.

On the downside, break of the short term channel support will indicate that rise from 150.75 has completed and deeper correction should then be seen towards 55 days EMA (now at 158.52). Also, this will give a serious warning signal that the whole rise rise from 130.60 has ended. EUR/JPY should set to channel the medium channel support (now at 152.83) in case this EMA is taken out decisively.

[شريف دعبس]

Bernanke Is Wrong on Inflation, Goldman, Merrill Say -Update1

By Daniel Kruger

April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's assertion that interest rates may need to increase to curb inflation is wrong. That's what Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co. and UBS AG are saying.

While Bernanke warned last month that the odds of worsening inflation have increased, chief economists at the three firms say the worst housing slump in a decade may drive the U.S. economy into a recession and stifle consumer prices. Their chief economists say the Fed will cut its target for overnight loans between banks at least three times this year.

The conflict boils down to opposing views about real estate. Central bank governors found no evidence that the housing market had affected the broader economy, according to notes of their March policy meeting, released April 11. The National Association of Realtors said last week existing home sales fell 8.4 percent in March, the steepest drop since 1989.

Bernanke is missing ``the linkage between residential housing investment and the broader economy,'' Jan Hatzius, chief economist at New York-based Goldman, the world's most profitable securities firm, said in an interview. ``The housing downturn is of the first order of importance.'' Hatzius says the Fed will cut rates three times this year, to 4.5 percent from 5.25 percent.

That should be bullish for bonds, says David Rosenberg, chief economist at New York-based Merrill, the world's biggest brokerage firm. He expects 10-year Treasuries to produce the best returns since 2002.

`Economic Malaise'

Yields on 10-year Treasury notes have barely budged this year. The yield on the benchmark 4 5/8 percent note due in February 2017 rose 2 basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, last week to 4.69 percent. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association recommends a full market close in Japan today for a holiday.

``The housing-led economic malaise has spread to the business sector,'' said Rosenberg, who anticipates the Fed will cut its target rate four times to 4.25 percent this year, in an interview. ``The economy is still on a slowing trend.''

The U.S. economy grew at a 1.3 percent pace in the first quarter, the slowest in four years, the government said April 27.

``House prices could decline as much as 10 percent,'' said Maury Harris, chief economist at UBS in New York, in an interview. UBS, based in Zurich, is the world's biggest money manager for the wealthy.

Fed research doesn't agree. The central bank reported ``signs of stabilization in housing demand in most regions of the country,'' according to the April 11 report. ``Home-buying attitudes improved and continuing job growth could be expected to support home sales.''

Job Growth

The economy added 180,000 jobs in March, 50,000 more than the consensus of economists in a Bloomberg survey, the Labor Department said on April 6.

The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the Commerce Department's price index for consumer spending on items excluding food and energy rose 0.3 percent in February, exceeding the 0.2 percent median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The price gauge rose 2.3 percent from a year earlier, higher than the Fed's comfort level of 1 percent to 2 percent.

``Recent readings on inflation and productivity growth, along with higher energy prices, had increased the odds that inflation would fail to moderate as expected,'' the Fed minutes showed. That's the ``predominant concern,'' for policy makers, according to the report.

The meeting minutes gave no hint of a rate cut and said ``further policy firming might prove necessary to foster lower inflation.''

Out of Time

Even if the economists are right about the direction of interest rates, they're running out of time for the predictions to come true. Fed policy makers have six scheduled rate meetings left this year.

``There's a little bit of wishful thinking,'' said Susan M. Phillips, dean of the George Washington University School of Business in Washington and a governor of the Federal Reserve Board from 1991 through 1998. Fed officials have said ``they'll be looking at what the data indicates,'' and since the last meeting of policy makers, ``energy prices have taken a hike,'' she said in an interview.

Crude oil jumped to the highest in almost eight months last week, and gasoline rose after Saudi Arabian authorities said they arrested more than 170 people suspected of plotting to attack the nation's petroleum fields.

Options traders are reducing bets the Fed will cut rates. The odds of borrowing costs falling to 4.5 percent are about 1 percent, according to options on fed fund futures. A month ago, traders saw an 18 percent chance that rates would fall that low.

The Marketplace

``Nobody in his right mind thinks the Fed will ease three times,'' said Stan Jonas, who trades interest-rate options in New York at Axiom Management Partners LLC, in an interview. ``The marketplace is not saying that at all.''

Goldman, Merrill and UBS are among seven of the 21 so- called primary dealers, who trade directly with the Fed, forecasting that the central bank will cut its target rate from 5.25 percent to as low as 4 percent.

They failed to anticipate the Fed in the past. Goldman projected an increase in June 2002 and the central bank ended up cutting rates the next quarter. UBS expected the Fed to double its target by the end of 2003 to 2.5 percent from 1.25 percent. Instead, the Fed reduced borrowing costs to 1 percent in June 2003.

Merrill had forecast in early 2006 that the Fed would end a series of increases when its benchmark reached 4.5 percent. Instead, the Fed boosted rates to 5.25 percent in June.

Pessimistic Picture

``Forecasting an administered rate that's set around a mahogany table is no easy task,'' said Merrill's Rosenberg. ``It's not the same as forecasting a market rate.''

The Fed has ``backtracked'' on the more bullish elements of its forecasts, Rosenberg said. ``They've cut their forecast on capital expenditures and they've extended the timing of the housing recovery.''

The Fed's so-called Beige Book released April 25, which compiles observations and forecasts from 12 regional banks, offered a more pessimistic picture of the economy than previous pronouncements, he said. Rate cuts have not been forthcoming because ``the Fed is handcuffed right now by the lack of any slackening in the labor market.''

``They're not telling us they're not going to change their mind,'' Goldman's Hatzius said. ``Everybody would prefer it if every forecast was right. At the moment we're probably perceived as more right.''

[شريف دعبس]

تشارتات توضيحيه لرؤيتى الشخصيه للكيوى
الموضوع الاساسى فى
الرابط التالى

https://forum.arabictrader.com/showthread.php?t=28754

[شريف دعبس]

Forex Weekly Review and Outlook

Another Round of US Data Awaiting

There were some good opportunity to trigger a broad sell off of dollar last week, in particular after the disappointing GDP data but in the end, dollar ended the week mixed and stayed in prior week's range against most currencies only. Well, yes, Euro did made new record highs against dollar and yen but EUR/USD's close was not convincing though. Another round of important economic data from US is scheduled to be released this week including NFP and it will be interested to see if the greenback could break out or reverse after these data.


Growth data from US last week were generally weak with the exception of durable goods orders. In particular, Q1 GDP saw growth of the US economy slowed sharply from 2.5% to 1.3%, much lower than expectation of 1.8%. The growth in 12 months ended in Mar was dragged further down by Q1's data to 2.1% which is the slowest pace in 4 years. The growth in GDP was mainly dragged down by worsening in trade, reduced federal government spending and slowdown in housing market. However, as the old saying of "devils in the details" consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of the US economy, though slowed from 4.2% to 3.8%, was slightly better than expectation of 3.5%. Inflation pressure is still high as price index accelerated further from 1.6% to 4.0%, much higher than expectation of 3.1% and was the fastest pace since 1991, while Core PCE Deflator, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation accelerated to 2.2% from 1.8%. After all, the GDP data gave not much new evidence to convince of the Fed to cut rates in 2H and hence, dollar's sell off after the release, though sharp, was relatively brief and dollar recovered to end the week inside prior week's range.

Housing data from the US was also less then impressive. Existing home sales fell -8.4% to 6.12m in Mar, much weaker than expectation of 6.45m. New Home Sales rose less than expected by 2.6% to 0.858m, missing expectation of 0.89m. Meanwhile prior data was revised down from 0.848m to 0.836m. Conference Board Consumer Confidence also deteriorated further to 104.0, comparing to consensus of 105.0. Though, strength in durable goods orders, which grew impressively by 3.4%, beating expectation of 2.5% in March, suggesting that capital spending may be recovering. Ex-transport orders and ex-defense orders both came in higher than consensus at 1.5% and 4.5% respectively. Prior month's data were also revised higher.

Data from Eurozone remained solid. Germany's Ifo Business Climate Index rose more than expected to 108.6 in Apr on the back of a 107.7 reading in Mar. More importantly, it's just 0.1 shy of Dec's record of 108.7. Consistently strong Ifo reading suggests that business conditions and expectations continued to improve in Apr and added further upward momentum to continue prevailing economic expansion. German Gfk consumer confidence also rose further from 4.7 to 5.5. The impact of VAT hike was much weaker than expected and is continue to fade away as the year goes.

BoJ kept rate unchanged at 0.5% on unanimous vote as widely expected. BoJ's report forecasted core CPI to be at 0.1% in fiscal year 07/08 and rises to 0.5% in fiscal year 08/09. Growth is forecasts to sustain at 2.1% in both fiscal year. BoJ emphasized again that it will adjust rates gradually and development in price and economic condition. Data from Japan were generally weak. National CPI continues to stay negative for the second month at -0.1% yoy in Mar while core CPI deteriorated further from -0.1% to -0.3%. Both industrial production and retails sales disappointed the markets. After all, the odds of a near term hike in May was greatly reduced and BoJ could continue to be on hold till end of Q3 or probably Q4.

Preliminary GDP data from UK saw the British economy grew 0.7% qoq, 2.8% yoy in Q1. The pace of expansion slowed slightly but nevertheless, momentum of 06 is seen preserved in early 07. Nationwide house price continued the momentum and accelerated further to 0.9% mom, 10.2% yoy in Apr. BoE's earlier rate hike has yet to show significant impact to the economic activities. In the Treasury Committee hearing, BoE Governor King emphasized again the BoE is determined to bring inflation down to target of 2%. Other BoE members sounded hawkish too but no concrete conclusion can be drawn from the hearing yet. Next month's Inflation Report remains crucial.

The Swiss KOF Leading Indicator extended its positive run to 1.90 in Apr, up from downwardly revised 1.84 in prior month. Though the reading was slightly below market expectation, the indicator still suggest that business activities will remain solid in the second half of 07. SNB President Roth said that investors trading on a weak franc should be aware of the risks including an "abrupt" adjustment of the currency as "it would be hasty to assume that the franc's tendency for weakness will last in an unlimited way:"

There were much activities in the commodity currencies last week. Canadian dollar continued to strengthen against the dollar on the back of recent solid data and a slightly more hawkish than expected BoC statement. BoC kept rate unchanged at 4.25% as widely expected. The bank forecasts economy to grow at 2.2% and 2.7% in 07 and 08 respectively while CPI is expected to rise over 2% during 2H but return to target by mid 08. On of the major changes in the accompanying statement is that "inflation has been higher than expected", comparing to "both total CPI and core inflation have been largely as expected:. Also, BoC now judges that the Canadian economy was operating just above its production capacity in the first quarter:. However, possible slowdown in the US will have negative impact to the Canadian economy, thus keeping BoC neutral at this moment.

RBNZ surprised the market by raising the OCR by 25bps to 7.75% as inflationary pressure remains strong, in particular on wage growth and tight labor market, as well as overheating housing markets. Kiwi failed to break through prior record high of 0.7493 and indeed retreated towards the end of the week.

Aussie tumbles sharply after huge disappointment from Q1 CPI data that basically erased the chance of a rate hike in May. CPI rose just 0.1% qoq in Q1, dragging the yoy from 3.3% to 2.4%, back to RBA's target range of 2-3%. Two of the RBA's preferred inflation gauge, the median weighted CPI and the trimmed mean CPI also came in well below expectations, down from 3.0% to 2.7% yoy and from 3% to 2.9% yoy respectively.




The Week Ahead

We'd like to emphasize again that dollar has every reason to be sold off on weak growth data last week but after all, dollar is kept in range in most pairs only. Risk of a medium term rebound in the greenback is still high and focus will turn to another round of important economic data from the US to trigger a reversal or a breakout. Mar PCE will be released on Mon and will be closely watched to see if the inflation data agrees with the moderation in core CPI released earlier. Both ISM indices will be featured too and are expected to improve slightly in Apr. Q1 labor costs and Productivity will be featured on Thu. The main event of the week will be Friday'sNon-Farm Payroll.

From Europe, Manufacturing and Services PMI will be released. Retail sales, PPI and employment situation in Eurozone will be featured. Swiss CPI will also be released. It will be a rather quite week in Japan as Golden week holiday keeps Japan markets closed for most of the week. RBA will announce rate decision on Asian session of Wed and is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 6.25% after last week's disappointing CPI

[شريف دعبس]

EUR/USD

EUR/USD finally made new record high of 1.3681 on Friday by breaking marginally above 04 high of 1.3668. However, upside momentum is still unconvincing as EUR/USD hesitates ahead of the short term rising channel resistance (now at 1.3685). Also, bearish divergence condition remains in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Risk of short term reversal remains high. Though, further rally is still in mildly in favor as long as EUR/USD stays above 1.3583 support. Break of 1.3583 will suggest a short term top is formed and bring retreat towards the short term channel support (now at 1.3484).

In the bigger picture, now, with 1.3668 target met, risk of medium term reversal is also increasing. As discussed before, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is treated is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend from 1.1639. With such interpretation we'd expect risk of medium term reversal to increase significantly as EUR/USD enter into resistance zone between 1.3668 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Hence, focus will then be on reversal signal.

However, sustained break of the short term channel support is needed to be the first warning of the completion of whole rally from 1.2865. Otherwise, EUR/USD's rise could continue to extend further to medium term rising channel resistance (now at 1.3791) and mentioned 1.3822 projection target.

On the downside, break of the short term rising channel support will indicate the rise from 1.2865 has likely completed. Break of 1.3406/10 support will confirm such case and deeper decline should then be seen to 55 days EMA (now at 1.3354). More importantly, this will be the first warning that the rise rally from 1.2483 has completed, and thus, so is the whole up trend from 1.1639. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel support (now at 1.2952).

In the longer term picture, it's still early to conclude whether medium term rally from 1.1639 represents resumption of multi-year up trend from 0.8223 or just part of a large scale consolidation that started at 1.3668. But, the three wave corrective nature of the rise from 1.1639 to 1.2978 suggest that this whole rally from 1.1639 will be corrective in nature, thus, favoring the latter case. And therefore, as discussed above, focus will be on reversal signal when EUR/USD enter into resistance zone of 1.3668 (04 high) and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. But sustained break of this resistance zone will path the way towards 95 high of 1.4523.

[شريف دعبس]

GBP/USD

Cable continued to consolidate below 2.0132 last week. Pullback was contained by short term rising channel support and 1.9855 support initially. But since rebound is still limited by 2.0058 resistance, short term risk remains on the downside. As discussed before, sustained break of the short term rising channel support (now at 1.9883) and 1.9855 support will warn that the rise from 1.9183 has already completed at 2.0132 and encourage deeper decline to 1.9723/26 support first. On the upside, above 2.0058 will indicate the correction from 2.0132 has already completed rally from 1.9183 has possibly resumed.

In the bigger picture, we'd like maintain that risk of medium term reversal remains high and is increasing. Firstly, the whole up trend from 1.7047 is not clearly impulsive. One interpretation is that rally from 1.7047 ended with three waves up to 1.9024. Subsequent correction ended at 1.8090. Rally from 1.8090 has already met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.7047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067. Secondly, regardless of the larger trend, rise from 1.8090 can be interpreted as being a five wave sequence with first wave ended at 1.9142, second at 1.8517, third at 1.9913 and fourth at 1.9183. The channeling property supports this interpretation too. In such case, the fifth wave rally from 1.9183 has also met target of 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9183 at 2.0046 too. With bearish divergence condition remains in weekly RSI and Daily MACD and key 2.0106 resistance (92 high) not decisively taken out, cable could be forming a top at the current price level.

On the downside, break of 1.9723/26 support will warn that the rise from 1.9183 has completed and put rising channel support (now at 1.9459) back into focus. Firm break of the channel support will indicate that the whole rally from 1.8090 has completed and add much credence to the case that an important medium term top is already formed and put focus to 1.9183 low. However, sustained trading above mentioned 2.0106 resistance will dampen the above interpretation and indicates that underlying bullishness in cable is much stronger then we thought. Further medium term rally should then be seen towards 61.8% projection of 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.0677.

In the longer term picture, the break above 1.9554 resistance (04 high) is favoring the case that long term up trend from 1.3680 has resumed after correction from 1.9554 was supported by 55 months EMA. However the structure of the medium term rise from 1.7047 is not clearly supporting this yet. And, we're still skeptical on it. The structure of the fall after finishing the current up trend from 1.7047 should reveal more information. But a strong break of mentioned 2.0106 resistance indicate add much favor to the case that multi year up trend from 1.3680 has resumed and hence should bring rally to next target of 61.8% projection first.