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Daily Currency Report - USD/JPY

USD/JPY

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 118.22

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: As our view for long term dollar weakness remains intact, we feel that 122.20 will cap rallies and initiate a drop back towards 105.00. Above 122.20 means that the dollar could rally much higher before a medium term top is formed.

Today's trade suggestion: Lots of fun and games on Friday as we dipped to 118.20, and then rallied back to 119.40 in less than an hour, where there have been renewed signs of topping and a good entry signal from our model to sell. This shows there is some instability at current levels and our view on the Yen remains unchanged. We will keep watching for signs of topping below 120.00 and be prepared to sell into the current rally for a (probably sudden) drop to 117.00 and then 115.00. Sell today (or hold yesterday's shorts) at 119.30/40, stops above 119.80, with a first target of 118.50, and then 116.50 later this month.

Key G7 Support levels: 118.20

'Set and forget' entry: SELL 119.40, stop 119.80, target 116.50

Counter-trend opportunities: None
Forex618

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باوند-ين
بيع

نقطه الدخول و الهدف موضحه بالتشارت
الاسباب
1- وتد صاعد (الدخول بعدكسر الحد السفلى)
2-ديفرجنز سلبى (بيع) على الديلى و الا الاربع ساعات
3- تبعات شراء over bought

تحياتى للجميع
سليل عائله دعبس

[galal37]

اخى الكريم التشارت غير ظاهرة هلا وضعتها بالمرفقات جزاك الله خيرا

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اخى الكريم التشارت غير ظاهرة هلا وضعتها بالمرفقات جزاك الله خيرا

وجزاكم مثله
التشارتات فى المرفقات

[galal37]

يبدو انى أعانى من مشكلة لانه لايظهر امامى اى شىء بالمرفقات

[جديد فوركس]

ما هو الهدف وكذلك الستوب للصفقة الاخيرة بيع باوند-ين ؟

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ما هو الهدف وكذلك الستوب للصفقة الاخيرة بيع باوند-ين ؟

اولا الصفقه لم تتفعل لعدم الوصول لنقطه الدخول كما هوموضح بالتشارتات اعلاه
ثانيا: الموضوع تعليمى فى المقام الاول و اذا اردت ان تدخل فادخل بناء على قناعتك الشخصيه بس المهم التعلم لانه هو الذى يبقى
تحياتى

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Forex Mid-Day Technical Report

CPI Dominates as Sterling Soars, Dollar Tumbles

Inflation data dominates today. While Sterling broke to new 15 years high above 2.0000 psychological level on strong inflation, dollar weakens after tame core inflation. US Core CPI moderated more than expected to 2.5% yoy in Mar, which is lowest since May 06. Though headline CPI accelerated further to 2.8% on higher energy prices. Housing data from US was slightly better than expected while industrial production missed expectation by dropping -0.2% in March. Neither is providing any support to the greenback.

Earlier today, Sterling soars sharply higher across the board, in particular, with GBP/USD breaking above 2.000 psychological level, heading towards 1992 high of 2.0106 on much stronger than expected consumer inflation data. CPI rose to 3.1% in Mar, breaking through BoE's target range of 2-3%, which is the first time since BoE was made independent a decade ago. Further more, the older benchmarks, RPI and RPI-X also surged to 4.8% yoy and 3.9% yoy, are rising at their most rapid rate since early 90s.

In accordance with the Bank of England Act in 98, BoE Governor Mervyn King has written an open letter to Chancellor Brown to explain the deviation in consumer price inflation in the month of March. In the letter, King said that part of the CPI's rise to 3.1% was due to unexpectedly sharp increase in domestic energy prices and rise in food prices caused by a weather-induced global reduction in supply. Also, some of the risks identified by the MPC have started to materialize and those include rebound in spending, continuing rapid growth of money and credit as well as increased capacity pressured.

However, King also downplayed the significant in today's data as he emphasized that the MPC will continue to "look through the short-term volatility in inflation" which resulted from "fluctuations in domestic energy prices". "At first sight, news seems unlikely to alter the broad picture painted in the February report". He indeed expects CPI to fall back within a matter of months and fall to a little below the 2% target by the end of this year, before settling around the target during the following year. But full analysis of the inflation data will be available in May 16's Inflation Report and May MPC Meeting Minutes.

After all, a hike on May 10 is now like a done deal for the BoE but while some speculations are started today on a 50bps hike, a 25bps hike is still more likely after the open letter. But still, BoE will likely go beyond May and need to have at least another raise in Q3 in order to bring inflation down. With Fed to be on hold this year, that will widen the rate gap to 50bps and this will continue to fuel further rally in Sterling. Meanwhile, the May 16 Inflation Report will be particularly important on what adjustments are to be done in the inflation outlook.

Germany's ZEW indicator of economic sentiments rose sharply in Apr to 16.5, beating expectation of 10.0 and was the highest reading since last June. Current situation indicate also rose further to 76.9. Eurozone ZEW also rose to 10.7 from 5.1 with current situation indicator rose to 69.9. These data are supportive to ECB's upbeat economic outlook and further rate hike.

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EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3518; (P) 1.3547; (R1) 1.3562;

EUR/USD's rally resumes in early US session by breaking above 1.3576 high and reaches as high as 1.3593 so far. At this point further rally is still expected as long as EUR/USD stays above 1.3525 support. Next upside target will be 1.3668 (04 high). Meanwhile, below 1.3525 will indicate a short term top has likely formed and bring pull back towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.3454). But still, rise from 1.2865 should still be in good sharp as long as the channel support (now at 1.3333) remains intact.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains unchanged. EUR/USD is still trading comfortably within medium term rising channel (1.1639, 1.2483, 1.2978) and medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress. Such up trend is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 has made a top at 1.3364 but subsequent correction has completed with three waves down to 1.2865 already. The current rise from 1.2865 should represent resumption of this whole up trend and further rise is still in favor to retest 1.3668 (04 high).

Having said that, on the upside, risk of medium term reversal will increase as EUR/USD approaches 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822 and focus will be then on reversal signals. On the downside, break of the lower support of the short term rising channel (now at 1.3333), will indicates that the rise from 1.2865 has completed. More importantly, this will be the first warning that the rise from 1.2483 has ended and thus the whole up trend from 1.1639 too. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel

now at 1.2952

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GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9853; (P) 1.9896; (R1) 1.9938

Cable rises sharply to as high as 2.0073 today, meeting mentioned 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9183 at 2.0046 as well as 100% projection of 1.7047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067. At this point, further rise is still expected to follow as long as cable stays above 1.9940. Next upside target will be 92 high of 2.0106. Touching of 1.9940 will suggest a short term top is formed and bring consolidation first but it will take a break below 1.9723/26 support to suggest that rise from 1.9183 has topped. Otherwise, further rally is still in favor.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.8090 is interpreted as having first wave finished at 1.9142, subsequent second wave correction completed at 1.8517. Third wave rally has completed at 1.9913 while the fourth wave correction has already ended with three subwaves down to 1.9183. Current rise from 1.9183 will likely be the final advance of this rise from 1.8090. The channeling property of the terminal points of 1.9142, 1.8517, 1.9913 and 1.9183 is supporting this case.

Having said that, resistance should significantly increase as cable approaches 2.0106 (92 high). With bearish divergence condition still being displayed in weekly RSI as well as daily MACD, risk of medium term reversal will significantly increase. Hence, focus will be on reversal signal as cable approaches this zone. However, a strong break of mentioned 2.0106 resistance will path the way towards 61.8% projection of 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.0677.

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USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2121; (P) 1.2134; (R1) 1.2153;

USD/CHF weakens sharply in early US session and is retesting 1.2066 low. However, outlook remains unchanged as USD/CHF remains bounded in consolidative trading above 1.2029 support. As discussed before, even though break of inner rising trend line was taken as the signal that corrective rise from 1.2029 has completed at 1.2282, the failure to take out 1.2082 support decisively as well as the three wave structure of the fall from 1.2282 to 1.2066 are casting doubts that the whole consolidation from 1.2029 has completed. Hence, favor is now in the case that such consolidation from 1.2029 will continue to extend with risk of another rise to 1.2282 resistance. And sustained break of 1.2029 cluster support (78.6% retracement of 1..1878 to 1.2571 at 1.2026) is needed to confirm that whole fall from 1.2571 has resumed for 1.1878 low.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains bearish with USD/CHF staying below both 55 days EMA and 55 weeks EMA. Daily and weekly MACD are both still staying negative, supporting this view too. The preferred interpretation at this point is that the whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in progress with the first move from 1.3283 finished with three waves down to 1.1919. Subsequent rebound to 1.2768 was the interim correction and price actions from there represent resumption of such down trend. Further decline should be seen to 1.1878 low and sustained break will add more credence to this view and bring further medium term weakness towards 100% projection of 1.3283 to 1.1919 from 1.2768 at 1.1404.

However, note that USD/CHF is still bounded in wide range of 1.1878 to 1.2768. A rebound to above 1.2354 resistance will dampen this view and indicate that the fall from 1.2571 has completed after meeting 1.2027 fibo support. Another rise could then be seen to retest this high and then the upper end of the range at 1.2768.

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USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.18; (P) 119.51; (R1) 120.06

USD/JPY's retreat from 119.86 continues in early US session as dollar is being pressured across the board. As discussed before, USD/JPY has yet to stay firmly above 119.48 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13) again. More importantly, as bearish divergence conditions remain in 4 hours MACD and RSI, upside momentum is still unconvincing. at this point, further rise is mildly in favor as long as USD/JPY stays above 118.98 minor support but sustained trading above 119.48 fibo resistance is still needed to confirm short term bullishness. In such case, further rise should be seen towards 121.61 resistance first. However, on the downside, below 118.98 will turn intraday bias back to the downside and break of 118.21 again will shift favor back to the case that a short term top is formed and bring further decline to 117.20 support and then 116.38.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 119.48 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13) will dampen our original view and indicate that a stronger rebound is underway. Also, price actions from 122.17 is probably developing into sideway consolidation to rise from 108.99 only, instead of as the third leg of consolidation that started at 121.38. In such case, a rest of 122.17 high could then be seen. But still, firm break above this resistance is needed to confirm medium term rally from 108.99 has resumed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at best.

On the downside, break of 116.38 support is needed to revive the original case that the whole up trend from 108.99 has completed at 122.17. In this case, the corrective nature of the rise from 108.99 swings favors back to the case that such medium term rally is merely part of a large scale consolidation that started at 121.38, with first leg completed at 108.99 and second leg completed at 122.17. The fall from 121.17 should then the third leg of such consolidation and deeper decline should at least be seen to below 114.02/41 support zone (61.8% retracement of 108.99 to 122.17 at 114.02) first with much possibility of further fall to retest 108.99 low.

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EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.52; (P) 161.96; (R1) 162.49; More

EUR/JPY continues to consolidate below 162.42 high today. As discussed before, EUR/JPY hasn't taken out mentioned medium term and short term channel resistance decisively yet and risk of a short term reversal is increasing as 4 hours MACD's turning down is suggesting loss of upside momentum. Nevertheless, break of 161.16 is needed to indicate a short term top is formed first. Otherwise, further rally is still mildly in favor.

On the upside, sustained trading above both medium term and short term channel resistance will indicate that the current rally is stronger than we originally thought and decisive break of 162.42 high should bring further rise towards 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 first. On the downside, below 161.16 minor support will indicate and short term top is formed and bring pull back. Break of 159.91 support will warn that the rally from 150.75 has completed and bring retest of short term rising channel support (now at 158.71).

In the bigger picture, we're treating the whole year long rise from 130.60 as resumption of the long term up trend with first wave ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up could have ended at 159.63 with a diagonal triangle already. Fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75 and rise from there represents the final advance in this structure. The channeling property of 143.60, 137.16, 159.63 and 150.75 is supporting this case.

Having said that, risk of a medium term reversal is also increasing with EUR/JPY now pressing the medium term channel resistance. Break of the short term channel support indicate that rise from 150.75 has completed and give a serious warning signal that the whole rise rise from 130.60 has ended. Focus will then turn to medium term channel support (now at 152.23). However, sustained break of the mentioned channel resistance will suggest that the underlying outlook is more bullish than we thought and will path the way towards 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64.

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تحليل اساسى
fundamental analysis

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Forex Daily Analysis (Update)

EUR/USD

EUR bulls continue in total and absolute control of the market as you can see in our attached chart, with the currency opening the day with a new higher high for the year at 1.3593 and approaching the 1.3665 3-year top. It is very clear that the environment of the EUR lies above a holding buy zone and uptrend, inside several AB Swings to the north side, that make aggressive and conservative traders to consider and get into long positions, riding both the latest and most recent direction of the market. At the current time, traders who are in long positions can now consider to lock in profit pips from their trades, as our focus of course continues to give preference to the uptrend and bull environment, meaning that re-entries buying Cs inside the buy zone are valid along with the appropiate patterns.