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USA: Retail Sales Remain Firm

Overview:

The March retail sales report printed a firm 0.7% m/m increase in total retail sales. Furthermore, February's figures were revised up by 0.4 percentage points. Overall, the retail sales report was quite solid, suggesting that Q1 consumer spending will come in at close to 3.5% q/q AR and confirming that personal spending remained strong into 2007.
Details:

While some of the strength in the retail sales report was genuine, the March figures were also "artificially " boosted by higher gasoline prices (adding 0.3 percentage points to total), "weather payback" (possibly giving back as much as ½ percentage point) and Easter shopping. Although the report was firm, it was not quite as strong as we had expected when taking the above factors into account.
All in all the currently available data point to flat real personal spending in March, which is somewhat weaker that the retail sales report might suggest at first glance. However, there are two important factors behind this. Firstly, the normalisation to warmer temperatures will imply a slowdown in energy-related housing service spending and, secondly, a sharp pick-up in PCE inflation (due to higher energy prices) will erode nominal spending further.
The January and February retail sales revisions suggest that we should see a slightly negative revision to real personal spending in January and a considerable upward revision to February. In sum this implies Q1 consumption will come in at close to 3.5% q/q.
Outlook:

Looking into Q2 we expect consumer spending to slow as the negative impact of higher energy prices feeds through. Our baseline scenario is for the slowdown in consumer spending to be temporary, but of course this hinges on gasoline prices in the near future. That said, we expect the real fundamentals of spending – incomes and employment – to remain sound, and thus continue to provide a solid foundation for consumption spending in the longer term and pave the way for a spending rebound in H2.
Retail sales still flirting with trend levels

Danske Bank

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CHF Commentary

Trading in the pair saw Offers into 1.2150 capped spot into European action with EUR/CHF trading once more injecting short-term volatility. Bids into 1.2125 propped for a while before hawkish Roth rhetoric forced spot lower with 1.2116 printing amid the latest stabs lower. The SNB head implied that the central bank will need additional rate hikes should the Swiss Franc remain low across the board while on inflation he also kept a "vigilant" tone. The comments sparked a slight CHF fight-back, following the G7 avoidance of both the weak Yen and CHF, and EUR/CHF was forced back towards 1.6425 support.

Looking ahead, the focus will turn to the 12:30 GMT release of the April Empire State data and the latest (March) retail sales numbers. Following this Plosser is to speak with Capital Inflow data set for unveiling at 13:00 GMT. Completing the early risk-profile is the 13:45 GMT speech by the Fed"s Fisher. Elsewhere, standing supply in [GBP/CHF] into 2.4155/60 was absorbed amid the early European Sterling strength. However, with the cross consolidating the move higher dealers noted key technical resist. into 2.4190/4200.

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Curency Crorsses: Euro Crosses Soar to Multi-Year Highs

EURJPY

The break above 159.61 means that the rally from 150.73 is the 5th wave in the 5 wave sequence that began at in June 2005 at 130.60. The 5th wave (beginning at 150.73) would equal the first wave (130.60-143.59) at 163.72. There is chart resistance from the 1998 synthetic high at 164.53. The character of the recent rally is indicative of a 3rd wave - so we are expecting the pair to continue higher in 4th and 5th waves (of the larger 5th) before reversal potential increases.

EURCHF

The EURCHF is coming up on a measured objective at 1.6511. This is where the rally from 1.5035 would equal the 1.4386-1.5862 rally and is a potential reversal point. The 1.6500 level is also near an upward sloping resistance line from parallel channel support. Daily oscillators are overbought as well, suggesting that the EURCHF will top out in the next several weeks. Coming under 1.6331 would signal the start of a larger decline.

EURGBP

The 5 wave rally from .6535 means that the larger trend is up and that weakness should unfold in a corrective manner. Still, the pair is at a critical juncture and could go either way in the short term. A decline below .6748 would confirm that the EURGBP is tracing out a C wave that will eventually test Fibonacci support near the 50% or 61.8% of .6535-.6867 at .6701/.6661. A rally through .6867 means that wave 3 up is underway and that the pair is headed much higher (we'll discuss targets when it is timely to do so).

Glossary of Terms
CCI(20) - 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 - bullish
0 > - bearish
> 100 - extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(21) - 21 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 - bullish
50 > - bearish
> 70 - overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ∆ - MACD slope (MACD - MACD[1])
> 0 - bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(8) - 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
> 0 - bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) - 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium - 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low - 25th percentile* >
ADX(14) - 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
> 30 - strong
30 > - weak
*measured against past 3 months
DailyFX

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Daily Technical Briefing: Yen and Dollar Continue to Weaken but Key Levels are Well-Defined

Technical Overview

• Euro Eyes 2004 High
• Japanese Yen Fails to Hold Gains
• British Pound 2007 High
• Swiss Franc Breaks Short Term Resistance
• Canadian Dollar Challenges 1.1300
• Australian Dollar Breaks 1990 High
• New Zealand Dollar 50 Pips From 2005 High

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EUR/USD

The EURUSD has taken out resistance from the March 2005 high as well as the 1.3500 figure. The next level of chart resistance is the 2004 high at 1.3666. There is no change in the call for a longer term top due to the 7 wave rally (which is a double zigzag….two zigzags connected with an X wave - labeled W-X-Y) from 1.1638. A break of 1.3666 would expose 1.3799, which is where wave W (1.1638-1.2979) would equal wave Y (beginning at 1.2458). Near term, the pair has run into resistance from a 2 month upward sloping channel line. Some consolidation in a 4th wave is expected support at 1.3486. The near term bull case is strong above 1.3453. Coming under 1.3453 is the first sign that a more significant top is in place.

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USD/JPY

The USDJPY reversed midday Friday and trades at a month and half high after taking out resistance from the previous week at 119.50. A daily close above potential trendline resistance drawn off of the 2/12 and 2/22 highs would increase confidence in a near term bullish outlook. A break above 120.00 exposes the 78.6% of 122.17-115.14 at 120.67. Today’s low at 118.96 is support.

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GBP/USD

Cable has traded to a new high for 2007 this morning and focus remains on the psychological 2.0000 figure. Given the presence of 2.0000 along with the possibility that 5 waves are complete from 1.9589, the risk of a reversal is high. Some consolidation/pullback is expected as oscillators are overbought on both daily and intraday charts. 1.9781 is initial support. Coming under short term trendline support, just above 1.9700, indicates additional bearish potential.

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USD/CHF

The break below short term trendline support warrants a short term bearish bias as long as price remains below 1.2187. However, the longer term turn wave structure supports a reversal (higher) as long as 1.2027 remains solid. A rally above 1.2281 would give credence to this view and suggest that an important low is in place at 1.2027.

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USD/CAD

The USDCAD continues to break down following the break of parallel channel support. The next potential support level is the 11/28/06 low of 1.1286. Daily RSI has reached oversold territory for the first time since April of 2006, so a bounce towards near term resistance at 1.1411 may be in order. The bearish case is strong below 1.1487.

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AUD/USD

The AUDUSD continues to rally and briefly traded above the 1990 high of .8351 today. Daily oscillators (CCI and RSI) are overbought and divergent with recent highs. Also, the break that occurred at .8000 was from a triangle and triangle breakouts are terminal (meaning that they are eventually retraced). The daily chart below shows the triangle (a-b-c-d-e) and the 5 wave rally that has ensued and RSI. With daily oscillator action, an extreme risk reversal rate (1 month 25 delta options) and the Aussie at former longer term resistance, we are looking for a reversal. Coming under .8232 signals that we are on the right track.

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NZD/USD

Kiwi briefly traded above .7400 today, just 50 pips from the March 2005 high at .7463. A Fibonacci turn date was Friday - but the longer term nature of the analysis allows for a deviation of 4 days. Daily RSI is overbought and divergent as well. Coming under .7313 would be the first sign that a top is in place.

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Forex Technical Analytics

CHF

The pre-planned breakout variant for sales has been realized but without development of pre-planned objectives. OsMA trend indicator has marked relative progress of bearish development at the break of key support '4' which was continued with essential rise of buying reaction as the base of choice of today's planning priorities. Hence, we assume a possibility of return to support range of 1.2100/20, where it is recommended to evaluate activity development according to the charts of shorter time intervals. For short-term buys on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.2160/80, 1.2200/20 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.2260/80, 1.2300/20. An alternative for sales will be below 1.2060 with the targets 1.2000/20, 1.1960/80.

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GBP

The assumed test of the key support range for pre-planned buys has not been confirmed. The events of the end of last week did not determine the key moments for making choice of any planning priority. OsMA trend indicator having marked preservation of the medium-term parity of activity gives grounds for range movement of the pair. Because of this and minimum of bearish advantage, we assume a possibility of return to supports 1.9820/40, where it is recommended to evaluate activity development according to the charts of shorter time intervals. For short-term buys on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.9880/1.9900 and/or further breakout variant above 1.9920 with the targets 1.9960/80, 1.2000/20. An alternative for the sales will be below 1.9780 with the targets 1.9720/40, 1.9680/1.9700.

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JPY

The pre-planned break for sales has been realized but with the harm in attainment of the assumed targets. OsMA trend indicator has determined substantial rise of bullish activity as the result of the end of last week making the appropriate choice of potential priorities for the nearest perspective. Hence, and according to the common descending direction of the indicator chart we assume a possibility of return to support range 119.10/20, where it is recommended to evaluate activity development according to the charts of shorter time intervals. For buys on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 119.60/80 and/or further breakout variant up to 120.20/40, 120.80/121.00. An alternative for the sales will be below 118.90 with the targets 118.30/50.

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EUR

The pre-planned buys from the key support range have been realized with attainment of the main assumed targets. OsMA trend indicator having marked preservation of parity of activity has not given grounds for making choice of any priority of planning for today. Thus, following only common trend direction and taking into consideration descending direction of the indicator chart, we assume a possibility of pair return to support range 1.3500/20, where it is recommended to evaluate activity development according to the charts of shorter time intervals. For short-term buys on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.3520/40, 1.3560/80, 1.3600/20 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.3660/80. An alternative for the sales will be below 1.3480 with the targets 1.3420/40, 1.3360/80.