تحليلات و فرص على العملات

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تحت عنوان سجل ياتاريخ
بفرض ان الجيل الحالى لا يحب ان يستفيد من هذا الموضوع و انه لا يصح الا الصحيح اذا سوف ياتى من سيستفيد لو بقدر بسيط من هذا الموضوع
فاسأل رب العرش العظيم مالك الملك ذو الجلال و الاكرام ان يكون هذا الموضوع يدخل ضمن نوع من انواع الصدقه الجاريه
هو علم ينتفع به .
فمن اراد ان يشارك بفاعليه و بإجابيه فاهلا و سهلا به
و من اكتفى بالمشاهده و استفاد فأسأل منه الدعاء لى بحسن الخاتمه .
من اليوم لن اكتفى بتحليلى الشخصى فقط و لكن سوف اضع مواد تعليميه و تقارير عالميه وأى شىء مفيد لهذا المجال
تحياتى للجميع
سليل عائله دعبس

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Forex Weekly Review and Outlook

Dollar Weakens on Rate Outlook, Yen on Carry Trades

Carry trade and interest rate expectation remains the main themes last week. On the one hand, dollar was pressured across board as FOMC minutes suggest that Fed will likely be on home this year while ECB, BoE, and RBA are all expected to raise rates further. Japanese yen, and to a lesser extend the Swiss Franc, also fell sharply across the board as carry trade is back into play. Even though the yen's fall hesitate a little as G7 meeting approaches, further selling was triggered late Friday on rumors that G7 will make no specific comments on yen's weakness. As a result, we saw EUR/USD making new 2 year high with EUR/JPY making new all time high, AUD/USD making new 17 years high while AUD/JPY made new 10 years high. A handful of economic data will be released in this busy week including retail sales and consumer inflation in the US but dollar will need to have a string of strong data to reverse recent weakness. The BoE minutes will also catch a lot of attention on how close the prior vote was.

Economic calendar in the US was light last week with focus mainly on the FOMC minutes. Fed members were facing risks on both growth and inflation. Regarding inflation, the minutes said that "the prevailing level of inflation remained uncomfortably high, and the latest information cast some doubt on whether core inflation was on the expected downward path," and "upside risks to inflation appeared to have increased slightly in recent months." All members agreed that Fed's "predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected". Also, further policy firming might "prove necessary" to foster lower inflation. Regarding growth, the members noted that "additional evidence of sluggish business investment and recent developments in the subprime mortgage market suggested that the downside risks relative to the expectation of moderate growth had increased in the weeks since the January FOMC meeting." Also, they agreed that the "possibility of persistently sluggish investment spending was an important downside risk to the outlook for economic growth."

With "increased uncertainty about the outlook for both growth and inflation", the FOMC also agreed that the statement should no longer cite "only the possibility of further firming. And that provided the answer to the the change of language in the last statement from "additional firming" to "future policy adjustments". After all, we believe the minutes is neither hawkish, nor dovish. It's not even neutral in a sense that the members are not comfortably certain that inflation and growth will play out as they expect with the current policy stance. The members are actually rather "uncertain" about which direction the next change will be. And it should need to take a series of consistently strong or weak data to prompt members to shift bias towards another hike or a cut. Otherwise, Fed will likely be on hold for the rest of the year.

Dollar was pressured earlier after news that US will file complaints to WTO against China, trying to reduce piracy of copyrighted intellectual properties including movies, music, software and books. The complaints, if filed, will trigger a 60 day consultation period during which trade negotiators from US and China will try to find a resolution. But if that fails, WTO hearing panels will be convened and if US wins the cases, it will be allowed to impose penalty economic sanctions on Chinese products. Chinese Ministry of Commerce Wang Xinpei responded by saying that "China very much regrets the decision and is strongly displeased", and such complaint will "severely damage" trade relations. With US breaking a two decades long practice and imposed penalty tariffs on Chinese glossy paper imports last month, today's news raises concern that the trade relationship between US and China will further deteriorate which would eventually hurt both economy as well as global growth.

Data from US saw export price and import price indices rose more than expected by 0.7% mom and 1.7% yoy in March. Trade deficit unexpected shrank by 0.7% to $58.4b in Feb from a revised $58.9b, better than expectation of $60b. PPI inflation data were mixed with PPI rose 1.0% mom, 3.2% yoy in Mar, higher than expectation of 0.7% mom and 3.0% yoy but core PPI was flat with 1.7% yoy increase comparing to consensus of 0.2% mom, 1.8% yoy. University of Michigan consumer confidence deteriorated further to 85.3 in Apr.

Eurozone's focus was mainly on ECB meeting. ECB kept rate unchanged at 3.75% as widely expected. The speech from Trichet in the following conference was pretty much the same as the prior one. No "vigilance" was used by Trichet hence confirmed that there will be no hike in May. Trichet remains hawkish as he described "monetary policy continued to be "on the accommodative side" with key rates "moderate". Even though inflation may fall in the coming few months, it's expected to rise again towards the end of this year and hover at around 2%. Risks to price stability remains on the upside in the medium to longer term, coming from excessive money supply growth, with M3 growing at 10% and wage increases. ECB will monitor the development "very closely" and "acting in firm and timely manner remains warranted" in order to avoid these risks to materialize". This is inline with the expectation that there will be another hike from ECB in June to raise rates to 4.00%. Trichet also said he would "not say anything today that would be aimed at changing expectations for June", sort of indicating that market's expectation on a June hike is correct. After all, market expects that ECB will not be done with the expected June hike and will go beyond 4.00%.

BoJ left rates unchanged at 0.5% on unanimous vote as widely expected. Economic assessment was left unchanged noting that economy is expanding moderately and should continue to do so. CPI is still expected to trend higher in the long run. The yen continued to remain pressured on carry trades. Further weakness could be seen as yen weakness was not directly mentioned in the official statement concluding the G7 meeting in Washington. The group only mentioned that recovery in Japan's economy is on track and they will monitor exchange rates "closely". Indeed, Yuan was the only currency that was singled out as the statement said it was "desirable" for the yuan to move to help close global trade imbalances

There were little UK data released last week. BRC retail sales and RICS house price both accelerated by growing 3.9% and 25.5%. Trade deficit widened to 6.8b in Feb from a revised 6.4b. The main market moving news was the Financial Times article which said that Treasury will propose allowing British based multinational companies to repatriate foreign profits free of tax, which is equivalent to the Homeland Investment Act in US. It's believed that this proposal will bring UK tax system in line with mainland Europe and improve UK's competitiveness. Sterling ended higher against dollar and yen but remains range bounded against Euro.

Commodity currencies remained strong last week as supported by rising commodity prices, their high yield status and expectation for further rate hike. In particular, Kiwi was boosted by much stronger than expected retail sales which nearly quadrupled expectations by accelerating 1.9% compared to a 0.5% consensus. Canadian dollar extended rally against dollar after stronger than expected new house price rise but rally was limited after narrower than expected trade surplus.

[faissal]

الله يبارك بك يا اخي ويجزيك الخير

بس بردو بقلك تاني
ثقلفتي المانيه هههه
صدقني نسيت الانكليزي

حد يترجم ياجماعه

[شريف دعبس]

الله يبارك بك يا اخي ويجزيك الخير

بس بردو بقلك تاني
ثقلفتي المانيه هههه
صدقني نسيت الانكليزي

حد يترجم ياجماعه

باختصار ضعف الدولار نتيبجه ترقب نسبه الفايده و الين ضعفه نتيجه دخول تجار الكارى مره اخرى فى الساحه

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اهم احداث الاسبوع القادم

The Week Ahead

A handful of important indicators will be released this week with particular focus in US and UK. From US, special focus will be on retail sales and CPI. Retail sales was weak since Jan (flat with ex-auto rose 0.2% only) and Feb (rose 0.1% with ex-auto dropped -0.1%). Core CPI bottomed at 2.6% in Nov and Dec and re-accelerated to 2.7% in Jan and Feb. Markets expect a rebound in retails sales in Mar and moderation in core CPI and such data will provide some comforts to Fed members to remain on hold. Other data include empire state manufacturing index, TICS capital flow, housing starts, industrial production and Philly Fed index.

The economic calendar of UK is an equally important one with PPI, CPI, employment report and retail sales. In addition, the highly anticipated BoE minutes will be featured. Markets widely expect BoE to raise rate by 25bps in May and will look into the BoE minutes and the vote split for clues on confirming such view. More importantly, there are increased speculations that BoE will go beyond the May hike and need at least one more raise to bring interest rates down to it's 2% target. This week's data will be important in validating or invalidating this speculation.

From Eurozone, German ZEW economic sentiment, which bottomed at -28.5 last Oct is expected to rebound further to 10.0. Consumer inflation in Germany and Eurozone in March are both expected to revise higher in the final release. Other important data include Q1 CPI in New Zealand which is expected to rebound by rising 0.5% qoq. Canadian CPI and retail sales will also catch some interest.

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what came first technichal or fundamental

good file may be help

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Things to Watch for... MACD

&

Stochastics Cross Signal
بعض استخدمات الماكد و الاستوكستك
منقول

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FX Technical Strategy Weekly: "Carrie" not Scary Enough

Market Overview

So the psychological factors that triggered a drop in the equity markets, that in turn triggered a fall in the carry trade are largely forgotten, courtesy of a reflated Shanghai stock market. Chart analysis is of course a study of price and market psychology, and of course trends do get over extended and snap back as we have seen in the Swiss and yen funding vehicles, but these trend remains intact and as I pointed out some time ago, all that will happen and has happened is the market has shifted its focus away from, say euro/yen, to Australian dollar against the swiss franc. Hence, the market uses such opportunities to shift from over stretched currency pairings to pairings that have lagged general moves. That is why the Australian dollar is all of a sudden the focus of attention when really the interest rate differentials have always been huge to the yen and swiss and the fundamentals broadly the same as any where else over the last two to three years, i.e., flying equity markets and metals prices. But currencies do go through periods of being in and out of favour, i.e. momentum trades.

It would appear that for now the US dollar remains the primary target against most things, but obviously not faltering dramatically against the carry currencies of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. So are we witnessing a realignment of the worlds currencies and at what stage of the cycle are we in? Certainly it can be argued that the US dollar is extremely over-valued against some of these emerging market currencies, relative to history, such as the Chinese renminbi and the Indian rupee and the pressure allied to growth with in China and India will only get greater. The euro's emergence as a serious alternative to the US dollar will I suspect persist, with strong eastern European countries likely to join in the near future. Certainly, the technical set up suggest continued modest euro appreciation against the US dollar with 1.3720 an initial objective. On euro/US dollar charts the pockets of support on retracements are very well tested and clearly defined enough to suggest that there is continued interest on the dips to buy euro, sell US dollars.

Sterling/US dollar remains a market trapped in its own history with 2.00 a major cap to the upside, but a direct and broadening pick up in two way volatility that suggests there is potential to move over 2.00, but not for long. I would suggest the weight of history is very much geared to buying 6 months 1.90 puts as opposed to buying 2.10 calls, but that in itself has its own message.

Euro/US dollar: look for further appreciation here with the resistance return line at 1.3700 the objective for now looking to buy dips.
Sterling/US dollar:it would appear that for now that sterling US dollar is capped at 1.9850, but we do appear to be entering a period of two way volatility that is broadening in a way that suggest a test of 2.00 and a break that will probably be short livid before it trades back down again. But the message is that this market stays positive and the lower line on a third test is probably a buying opportunity.
Australian dollar/ Swiss franc: continued risk to the upside and a push towards levels at 1.02 and then 1.05/ 06 in 6 months time.
Euro/Swiss franc: the general view is to target further euro strength through to 1.6500, looking to buy dips back down towards 1.6200.
New Zealand dollar/US dollar: I would expect to see further NZ dollar appreciation this year towards the resistance return line on the long term charts at 0.7550.

Euro/sterling : risk in euro/ Sterling at the moment remains to the upside with interim resistance at 0.6870 a sell zone in all probability, set against support at 0.6750 a buy zone. I think for now there is some good upside risk, but I see now trend break out this year and feel the triangular constriction level will continue to hold.

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تابع التقرير السابق

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EUR/USD

EUR/USD surged sharply against dollar last week after finally taking out 1.3440 resistance decisively and reached as high as 1.3554 to close the week strongly. From a short term angle, with EUR/USD still staying comfortably within short term rising channel, the rise from 1.2865 is still in progress and should extend to 1.3668 (04 high). However, late Friday's retreat suggest that an intraday top is formed after touching upper resistance of the short term rising channel (now at 1.3554). Hence initial outlook will be consolidative this week and some pull back will likely be seen towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.3424). But downside should be contained above 1.3404 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains unchanged. EUR/USD is still trading comfortably within medium term rising channel (1.1639, 1.2483, 1.2978) and medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress. Such up trend is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 has made a top at 1.3364 but subsequent correction has completed with three waves down to 1.2865 already. The current rise from 1.2865 should represent resumption of this whole up trend and further rise is still in favor to retest 1.3668 (04 high).

Having said that, on the upside, risk of medium term reversal will increase as EUR/USD approaches 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822 and focus will be then on reversal signals. On the downside, break of the lower support of the short term rising channel (now at 1.3325), will indicates that the rise from 1.2865 has completed. More importantly, this will be the first warning that the rise from 1.2483 has ended and thus the whole up trend from 1.1639 too. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel (now at 1.2935).

In the longer term picture, it's still early to conclude whether medium term rally from 1.1639 represents resumption of multi-year up trend from 0.8223 or just part of a large scale consolidation that started at 1.3668. But, the three wave corrective nature of the rise from 1.1639 to 1.2978 suggest that this whole rally from 1.1639 will be corrective in nature, thus, favoring the latter case. And therefore, as discussed above, focus will be on reversal signal when EUR/USD enter into resistance zone of 1.3668 (04 high) and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. But sustained break of this resistance zone will path the way towards 95 high of 1.4523.

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GBP/USD

After dipping to 1.9591 initially, cable rebounded strongly on broad based dollar weakness and surged to as high as 1.9887. Friday's retreat suggest that an intraday high is formed and hence initially outlook will be consolidative this week with risk of pulling back towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.9729). However, since prior break of 1.9824 resistance indicates that rise from 1.9183 has resumed, downside of the retreat should be contained by 1.9723 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.9887 again will encourage further rally to 1.9913 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.8090 is interpreted as having first wave finished at 1.9142, subsequent second wave correction completed at 1.8517. Third wave rally has completed at 1.9913 while the fourth wave correction has already ended with three subwaves down to 1.9183. Current rise from 1.9183 will likely be the final advance of this rise from 1.8090. The channeling property of the terminal points of 1.9142, 1.8517, 1.9913 and 1.9183 is supporting this case.

Having said that, resistance should significantly increase as cable approaches 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9183 at 2.0046. Also, consider that cable will be near to resistance zone of 2.0106 (92 high) and 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067. With bearish divergence on condition still being displayed in weekly RSI as well as daily MACD, risk of medium term reversal will significantly increase. Hence, focus will be on reversal signal as cable approaches this zone.

On the downside break 1.9591 support will indicate that the rise from 1.9183 has completed. More importantly, this will be the warning of an early completion of the whole rise from 1.8090. Focus will then be on above mentioned channel support (now at 1.9353).

In the longer term picture, the break above 1.9554 resistance (04 high) is favoring the case that long term up trend from 1.3680 has resumed after correction from 1.9554 was supported by 55 months EMA. However the structure of the medium term rise from 1.7047 is not clearly supporting this yet. And, we're still skeptical on it. The structure of the fall after finishing the current up trend from 1.7047 should reveal more information. But a strong break of mentioned 2.0106 resistance will path the way towards 61.8% projection of 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.0677.

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USD/CHF

USD/CHF continued to trade in choppy way last week by falling sharply to as low as 1.2066 and then rebounding strongly in late Friday session to as high as 1.2188. The break of inner rising trend line was taken as the signal that corrective rise from 1.2029 has completed at 1.2282. However, the failure to take out 1.2082 support decisively as well as the three wave structure of the fall from 1.2282 to 1.2066 are casting doubts that the whole consolidation from 1.2029 has completed. Instead, favor is now in the case that such consolidation from 1.2029 will continue to extend with risk of another rise to 1.2282 resistance. And sustained break of 1.2029 cluster support (78.6% retracement of 1..1878 to 1.2571 at 1.2026) is needed to confirm that whole fall from 1.2571 has resumed for 1.1878 low.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains bearish with USD/CHF staying below both 55 days EMA and 55 weeks EMA. Daily and weekly MACD are both still staying negative, supporting this view too. The preferred interpretation at this point is that the whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in progress with the first move from 1.3283 finished with three waves down to 1.1919. Subsequent rebound to 1.2768 was the interim correction and price actions from there represent resumption of such down trend. Further decline should be seen to 1.1878 low and sustained break will add more credence to this view and bring further medium term weakness towards 100% projection of 1.3283 to 1.1919 from 1.2768 at 1.1404.

However, note that USD/CHF is still bounded in wide range of 1.1878 to 1.2768. A rebound to above 1.2354 resistance will dampen this view and indicate that the fall from 1.2571 has completed after meeting 1.2027 fibo support. Another rise could then be seen to retest this high and then the upper end of the range at 1.2768.

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USD/JPY

USD/JPY edged higher to 119.53 initially last week but failed to take out 119.48 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13) decisively. With bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI as background, subsequent retreat to 118.21 seemed to confirm a short term top is formed. However, late Friday's strong rally has pushed USD/JPY to the 119.53 high again, dampening this view. Nevertheless, sustained break of 119.48/53 cluster resistance is still needed to confirm rise from 115.13 has resumed. Otherwise, risk should still be on the downside and break of 118.21 again will shift favor back to the original case that a short term top is already formed at 119.53 and bring further decline to 117.20 support and then 116.38.

In the bigger picture, our view remains unchanged. Previous break of medium term rising channel support (108.99, 114.41, 117.87) indicates the whole up trend from 108.99 has completed at 122.17. Weekly MACD's stay below signal line is still supporting this. The corrective nature of the rise from 108.99 swings favors back to the case that such medium term rally is merely part of a large scale consolidation that started at 121.38, with first leg completed at 108.99 and second leg completed at 122.17. The fall from 121.17 should then the third leg of such consolidation and deeper decline should at least be seen to below 114.02/41 support zone (61.8% retracement of 108.99 to 122.17 at 114.02) first with much possibility of further fall to retest 108.99 low.

However, decisive break of 119.48 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13) will indicate that a stronger rebound is underway. Also, price actions from 122.17 is probably developing into sideway consolidation to rise from 108.99 only, instead of as the third leg of consolidation that started at 121.38. In such case, a rest of 122.17 high could then be seen. But still, firm break above this resistance is needed to confirm medium term rally from 108.99 has resumed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at best.

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EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY's rally extended further to as high as 161.45 last week, breaking through mentioned cluster projection target of 100% projection of 150.75 to 155.72 from 152.64 at 160.68 and 100% projection of 152.64 to 158.801 from 155.34 at 160.71. At this point, EUR/JPY is pressing double channel resistance, with short term rising channel resistance at 161.67 and medium term rising channel resistance at 161.45. With mild bearish divergence in 4 hours MACD as background, risk of a short term reversal is increasing. However, break of 159.91 support is needed to confirm that a short term top is formed. Otherwise, further rally is still in favor. Below 159.91 will encourage a retest of short term channel support (now at 158.24).

In the bigger picture, we're treating the whole year long rise from 130.60 as resumption of the long term up trend with first wave ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up could have ended at 159.63 with a diagonal triangle already. Fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75 and rise from there represents the final advance in this structure. The channeling property of 143.60, 137.16, 159.63 and 150.75 is supporting this case.

Having said that, risk of a medium term reversal is also increasing with EUR/JPY now pressing the medium term channel resistance. Break of the short term channel support indicate that rise from 150.75 has completed and give a serious warning signal that the whole rise rise from 130.60 has ended. Focus will then turn to medium term channel support (now at 152.23). However, sustained break of the mentioned channel resistance will suggest that the underlying outlook is more bullish than we thought and will path the way towards 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64.

[faissal]

مجهود تشكر عليه
الله يبارك لك وعليك