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GBP/USD

GBP bulls continue in total and absolute control of the market as you can see in our attached chart, with the currency opening the day with a new higher high for the year that as amazing as it sounds, breaks the 2.00000 barrier, currently aiming for even higher highs above 2.0117, values not seen in decades ! Our forecast therefore presents small change from the previous view as it is very clear that the environment of the pound continues above a holding buy zone and uptrend, inside several AB Swings to the north side, that make aggressive and conservative traders to consider and get into long positions, riding both the latest and most recent direction of the market. At the current time, traders who are in long positions can now consider to lock in profit pips from their trades, as our focus of course continues to give preference to the uptrend and bull environment, meaning that re-entries buying Cs inside the buy zone are valid along with the appropiate patterns.

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USD/CHF

CHF bears mean business at the time we write our analysis, with the currency dipping to test our good old friend 1.2080 -old support of the consolidation range we mentioned about 2 weeks ago-. Bulls of course will not surrender this level without putting up a fight, and will be very interested in building up move patterns to make the market rally and once again target upper resistances. Traders who are in short positions can now consider to lock in profit pips from their trades, as our focus will now give preference to stand aside for now waiting to see what team will be the eventual winner if a bearish breakout or a bullish bounce.

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USD/JPY

A beautiful, BEAUTIFUL, JPY technical day has given us today with the market beautifully bouncing off an outer holding resistance downtrend line that we had appointed in our previous forecast and video presentations through the past weeks. Bears are woking their down move signals in order to imply that this level will hold, while bulls will work as hard as they can to prevent this from happening, using the 118.97 area as support along with the latest retrace uptrend line to apply pressure to the northside. Aggressive traders that took long positions riding the bearish bounce can consider to lock in pips, looking to cancel replace the stop loss if multiple lots are involved. The upcoming hours of the JPY are definitive to call in the next direction of the charts and so far... Bears have won the first battle.

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SignalZone trading recommendations

Tue, 17 Apr 2007 16:26:47 GMT
by Gary Deduke


USD was pushed down across the board as core CPI figures came in below the 0.2% estimate at 0.1%. The headline figure was in line at 0.6%, however much of those gains came from the energy sector. Y/Y consumer inflation has also ticked to 2.5% on a core level, supporting the Fed’s assessment of inflationary pressures likely to be contained in the near term. In addition, US housing starts and building permits have showed a modest improvement, but the bulk of that was seen in the Midwest just as coast metropolitan housing sector remains on the decline. Meanwhile, we have upgraded our view on Sterling following an overnight breach of the psychological 2.00 level on much stronger UK inflation than anticipated. We have also downshifted to Neutral on the loonie ahead of a key technical level in USDCAD.
USDCAD has run into a major technical support at the 1.1280 level – 61.8% retracement of the rally from all time low to the recent peak just shy of 1.19 - just as dollar bearishness appears to be at an extreme. As such, we are shifting our near-term bias to Neutral and may begin to look for CAD short opportunities ahead of the inflation data out of Canada on Thursday and retail sales on Friday.

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رؤيتى للكيبل
من الشهرى الى الساعه
باوند-دولار
بيع من
2.0100-2.0110

الاسباب موضحه بالشارتات

1-تربل توب
2-ديفرجنزسلبى على كل الفريمات
3-اعاده اختبار ترند مكسور
4-تشبعات شراء
5- سعر مغرى من مستوى قوى

[سمير صيام]

رؤيتى للكيبل
من الشهرى الى الساعه
باوند-دولار
بيع من
2.0100-2.0110

الاسباب موضحه بالشارتات

1-تربل توب
2-ديفرجنزسلبى على كل الفريمات
3-اعاده اختبار ترند مكسور
4-تشبعات شراء
5- سعر مغرى من مستوى قوى

اتفق معاك وان يكون الدخول بنسبة بسيطة من راس المال لانه ضد الترند الحالى

[شريف دعبس]

اتفق معاك وان يكون الدخول بنسبة بسيطة من راس المال لانه ضد الترند الحالى

تمام ياغالى

نسأل الله التوفيق

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Forex Daily Technical Report

Sterling Pressing 92 High, BoE Minutes and Employment Data Eyed

Sterling continues to strengthen against dollar today, reaching as high as 2.0102 so far, just shy of 92 high of 2.0106. BoE meeting minutes and employment data from UK will catch much interest today but the impact to the markets will likely be lessened by yesterday's strong CPI data and King's open letter. A May hike is like a done deal after CPI reached 3.1% in Mar. BoE's reassessment on inflation outlook will be published in the Inflation Report to be released on May 16 and that's where the most current information will be obtained for the markets to reassess the number of further rate hike needed beyond May. Though, the vote split to be revealed by today's MPC minutes will still catch some attention.

Employment report from UK is expected to show -5k drop in claimant count in Mar. Average earnings is expected to accelerate further to 4.3% yoy rate while ILO unemployment is expected to remain at 5.5%. The data will continue to show that joblessness is continuing to fall and earnings inflation will sustain. This will have little impact on the current outlook and Sterling will remains strong if the data comes in as expected.

Elsewhere, dollar remains pressured with Euro continuing to make new 2 year high of 1.3598, Kiwi making 22 year high of 0.7492, Aussie making 17 year high of 0.8385. Yesterday's tamed core CPI inflation in Mar triggered some talk of a rate cut from Fed but we believe one month of data is not enough to convince the uncertain fed members to change their wait and see stance yet. Though, with only Philly Fed index and Leading Indicators on the economic calendar for the rest of the week, dollar will likely remain pressured.

Q1 inflation data from New Zealand showed CPI rebounded from -0.2% qoq fall to 0.5% qoq rise while yoy rate moderated slightly from 2.6% to 2.5%. The data is basically inline with consensus expectation and is supportive to the expectation that RBNZ will hike again in Apr.

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EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3528; (P) 1.3561; (R1) 1.3598;

EUR/USD's recent rise continues today by reaching as high as 1.3602 so far. At this point, short term outlook remains bullish as long as EUR/USD stays above 1.3525 support and further rise is expected to follow to retest 1.3668 (04 high). Meanwhile, below 1.3525 will indicate a short term top has likely formed and bring pull back towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.3481). But still, rise from 1.2865 should still be in good sharp as long as the channel support (now at 1.3333) remains intact.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains unchanged. EUR/USD is still trading comfortably within medium term rising channel (1.1639, 1.2483, 1.2978) and medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress. Such up trend is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 has made a top at 1.3364 but subsequent correction has completed with three waves down to 1.2865 already. The current rise from 1.2865 should represent resumption of this whole up trend and further rise is still in favor to retest 1.3668 (04 high).

Having said that, on the upside, risk of medium term reversal will increase as EUR/USD approaches 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822 and focus will be then on reversal signals. On the downside, break of the lower support of the short term rising channel (now at 1.3333), will indicates that the rise from 1.2865 has completed. More importantly, this will be the first warning that the rise from 1.2483 has ended and thus the whole up trend from 1.1639 too. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel (now at 1.2954).

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GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9939; (P) 2.0006; (R1) 2.0132;

Cable's strong rally extends further to as high as 2.0102, pressing 92 high of 2.0106. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as cable stays above 2.0008 minor support and further rise is still in favor. Sustained trading above 2.0106 resistance will encourage further rally towards next medium term target of 2.0677. However, below 2.0008 will suggest an intraday top is formed and should bring pull back towards 1.9877 support. But it will take a break below 1.9723/26 support to Indicate that rise from 1.9183 has topped. Otherwise, further rally is still in favor after consolidation.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.8090 is interpreted as having first wave finished at 1.9142, subsequent second wave correction completed at 1.8517. Third wave rally has completed at 1.9913 while the fourth wave correction has already ended with three subwaves down to 1.9183. Current rise from 1.9183 will likely be the final advance of this rise from 1.8090. The channeling property of the terminal points of 1.9142, 1.8517, 1.9913 and 1.9183 is supporting this case.

Having said that, resistance should significantly increase as cable meets 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067 and approaches 2.0106 (92 high). With bearish divergence condition still being displayed in weekly RSI as well as daily MACD, risk of medium term reversal will significantly increase. Hence, focus will be on reversal signal as cable approaches this zone. However, a strong break of mentioned 2.0106 resistance will path the way towards 61.8% projection of 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.0677.

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USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2048; (P) 1.2099; (R1) 1.2134;

USD/CHF extends weakness to 1.2049 today and at this point, further fall is in favor towards 1.2029 cluster support as long as USD/CHF stays below 1.2150 resistance. However, as discussed before, even though break of inner rising trend line was taken as the signal that corrective rise from 1.2029 has completed at 1.2282, the corrective structure of the fall from 1.2282 is casting doubts that the whole consolidation from 1.2029 has completed. Hence, favor is still in the case that such consolidation from 1.2029 will continue to extend with risk of another rise to 1.2282 resistance. Hence, sustained break of 1.2029 cluster support (78.6% retracement of 1..1878 to 1.2571 at 1.2026) is needed to confirm that whole fall from 1.2571 has resumed for 1.1878 low. Otherwise, choppy consolidation might still continue and above 1.2150 resistance will encourage rebound towards 1.2282 resistance.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains bearish with USD/CHF staying below both 55 days EMA and 55 weeks EMA. Daily and weekly MACD are both still staying negative, supporting this view too. The preferred interpretation at this point is that the whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in progress with the first move from 1.3283 finished with three waves down to 1.1919. Subsequent rebound to 1.2768 was the interim correction and price actions from there represent resumption of such down trend. Further decline should be seen to 1.1878 low and sustained break will add more credence to this view and bring further medium term weakness towards 100% projection of 1.3283 to 1.1919 from 1.2768 at 1.1404.

However, note that USD/CHF is still bounded in wide range of 1.1878 to 1.2768. A rebound to above 1.2354 resistance will dampen this view and indicate that the fall from 1.2571 has completed after meeting 1.2027 fibo support. Another rise could then be seen to retest this high and then the upper end of the range at 1.2768.

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USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 118.52; (P) 119.16; (R1) 119.54;

USD/JPY's rise from 118.21 was limited at 119.86, limited by falling trend line (122.05, 121.61) and failed to take out 119.48 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13) decisively. Subsequent fall has pushed USD/JPY to below mentioned 118.98 support and maintaining bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. A short term top should be formed and further decline is now expected to be seen towards 118.21 support. Break will encourage further fall towards 117.20 support and then 116.38. meanwhile, it will take a break above 119.86 high to revive short term bullishness.

In the bigger picture, break of 116.38 support will revive the original case that the whole up trend from 108.99 has completed at 122.17. In this case, the corrective nature of the rise from 108.99 swings favors back to the case that such medium term rally is merely part of a large scale consolidation that started at 121.38, with first leg completed at 108.99 and second leg completed at 122.17. The fall from 121.17 should then the third leg of such consolidation and deeper decline should at least be seen to below 114.02/41 support zone (61.8% retracement of 108.99 to 122.17 at 114.02) first with much possibility of further fall to retest 108.99 low.

On the upside, sustained trading above 119.48 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13) will dampen our original view and indicate that a stronger rebound is underway. Also, price actions from 122.17 is probably developing into sideway consolidation to rise from 108.99 only, instead of as the third leg of consolidation that started at 121.38. In such case, a rest of 122.17 high could then be seen. But still, firm break above this resistance is needed to confirm medium term rally from 108.99 has resumed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at best.

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EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.97; (P) 161.56; (R1) 161.91;

EUR/JPY's retreat from 162.42 continues today. Touching of 161.16 support with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line suggest that a short term top is formed at 162.42 and further fall should be seen towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 160.37). As discussed before, EUR/JPY has yet to take out mentioned medium term and short term channel resistance decisively. Break of 159.91 support will warn that the rally from 150.75 has completed and bring retest of short term rising channel support (now at 158.97).

However, break of 162.42 resistance again and sustained trading above both medium term and short term channel resistance will indicate that the current rally is stronger than we originally thought and decisive break of 162.42 high should bring further rise towards 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 first.

In the bigger picture, we're treating the whole year long rise from 130.60 as resumption of the long term up trend with first wave ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up could have ended at 159.63 with a diagonal triangle already. Fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75 and rise from there represents the final advance in this structure. The channeling property of 143.60, 137.16, 159.63 and 150.75 is supporting this case.

Having said that, risk of a medium term reversal is also increasing with EUR/JPY now pressing the medium term channel resistance. Break of the short term channel support indicate that rise from 150.75 has completed and give a serious warning signal that the whole rise rise from 130.60 has ended. Focus will then turn to medium term channel support (now at 152.23). However, sustained break of the mentioned channel resistance will suggest that the underlying outlook is more bullish than we thought and will path the way towards 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64.

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BOE Votes 7-2 in April; Average Earnings Reach 21-Month High

The European indices are currently trading in negative territory in the session on renewed concerns that the US will face sub-prime woes again stemming from vague market rumors.

- European government bonds are trading higher today on vague rumors that sub-prime woes may resurface in the US again, causing a rotation out of equity and into the safety of fixed income. Gilts are also trading higher for the same reason, but gave up some of their gains upon the release of stronger than expected average earnings data. Germany sold €6.365B in a top-up auction for the 3.75% March 2-year schatz. The bid-to-cover on the auction was 1.9, above the neutral call of 1.6, as well as the previous bid-to-cover of 1.4.
- The French trade balance widened to a deficit of €3.3B in February, from a deficit of €2.7B in January. The current account was expected to narrow to a deficit of €2.4B.
- The Bank of England minutes from the April 5 meeting were released overnight. As most analysts expected the Bank of England voted 7-2 to keep rates unchanged at 5.25% at the April meeting. The dissenting voters, Besley, and Sentance, said that they saw strong upside inflation risks, and believed that demand would sustain high inflation. The MPC majority said that they did not see a compelling case for a rate hike, and believed that the consumption outlook was uncertain.
- Also in the UK overnight, average earnings including bonus, which was expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%, rose to 4.6%, its highest level since May of 2004. The average earnings figures further push the case for a Bank of England interest rate hike at the next meeting granted yesterday’s consumer price data. At this point many analysts say that a 25 basis point hike is built in at the next meeting and speculate that, granted the recent date, the Bank of England may consider a 50 basis point hike in May.
- The ECB’s Mersch said overnight that inflation risks remain high in the Euro-Zone and indicated that higher interest rates are ahead. Mersch said that the Euro-Zone economy should remain strong into 2008, and noted that, thus far, wages remain tame.
- According to a German newspaper, a leading German think tank sees German GDP growth of 2.4% in both 2007 and 2008.
- Front month crude oil futures are trading lower in the session following comments from the Iranian oil minister overnight. The Iranian oil minister said overnight that OPEC is unlikely to hold an early meeting, noting that current oil prices are seen as steady. The Iranian oil minister attributed oil price stability to OPEC output cuts.

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BoE MPC voted by 7-to-2 margin to keep repo rate unchanged in April UPDATE

Wed, Apr 18 2007, 09:06 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committe voted by a 7-to-2 margin to keep the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25 pct earlier this month, the minutes of April's meeting revealed.

The rate setters appeared to be split into three broad camps. A first more dovish group felt that inflation will fall back, a middle group reckoned there was a need to wait-and-see, delaying a hike until May, while the last was more hawkish, preferring an immediate rate increase.

The two dissenting votes, calling for a hike to 5.50 pct, came from the panel's latest recruits Tim Besley and Andrew Sentance, who are both fast gaining a reputation as hawks.

For them, the risks to inflation were on the upside and therefore warranted a rate hike immediately. They cited strong consumption, business investment and global demand alongside healthy profitability. Additionally, they noted that firms were confident about putting up prices and that money and asset prices also threatened to push inflation higher.

For the middle camp of rate setters, a hike was not justified in April even though they felt the risks to inflation remained on the upside especially due to elevated levels of producer prices in both the manufacturing and services sectors. Still, they felt it was time to wait-and-see as markets were not expecting a rate hike in April.

"Any change would also be better explained in the context of the May Inflation Report projections," they said.

Markets widely predict a hike in May, coinciding with the central bank's next round of projections for growth and inflation in the Inflation Report.

The rest of the MPC, however, were more dovish, saying there was "no compelling case" for an April rate hike. They cited the uncertain outlook for the US economy and for consumer spending in the UK. While there were risks to both sides in the outlook for inflation, they expect inflation fall back over the next few months.

To some extent the minutes have been overtaken by events. Yesterday, it was revealed that the CPI annual rate jumped to an all time high of 3.1 pct, cementing predictions of a quarter point hike to 5.50 pct in May. The inflation surge also triggered an unprecedented event. Bank of England governor Mervyn King was forced to write an open letter of explanation to Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown. King said that the rate setting panel will look through short term volatility in inflation and maintained that he expects inflation to ease back over the coming months.

The minutes also revealed that the MPC was less concerned about wage pressures than previously. It noted that pay deals have continued to be relatively benign although it noted differences in opinion about the degree of slack in the labour market.

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