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[forex147]

كن بان وا
كوليوا نان ديسكا
اليقاتوا كوزايمس
اصل ثقافتي ياباني ياليت تترجم علشان الكل يستفيد

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Dollar Losses And Low Stock Volatility May Be Corrected By Retail Sales

Advanced Retail Sales (MAR) (12:30 GMT) NAHB Housing Market (APR) (17:00 GMT) Expected: 0.6% Expected: 35 Previous: 0.1% Previous: 36

How Will The Markets React?

US financial markets were topsy turvy in the final days of trade last week. Both the Treasuries and equities markets held back from big moves, though considerable levels were marked. The dollar, on the other hand, was a different story. On Thursday, the basket-weighted dollar index dropped to a new four-month low without the help of a true market-moving indicator. However, it was Friday's action that really shook the currency market. Through the Asian and most of the London session, the dollar was put under steady selling pressure that pulled the unit to lows not seen in over two years. In an unexpected twist though, it was quickly bid right back within its battered range on less-than-impressive data. Now, looking ahead to Monday's economic offerings, a barrage of data will try its hand at putting the US financial markets back on a stable path - whether it will be a trend lower or higher. Of all the indicators on deck, the retail sales report holds the greatest potential for triggering market momentum. According to the official economist consensus, sales activity may have grown 0.6 percent in March, although there are more than a few critics against such an optimistic outcome. Last month marked a sharp correction in equity markets, tightened lending restrictions amid a media frenzy surrounding sub-prime defaults and a steady rise in gasoline prices. Even the related economic indicators for the period raise a few flags of caution. Though non-farm payrolls, a key driver for spending and confidence, put in another steady addition; the optimism wasn't passed on to the monthly optimism surveys. The Conference Board's gauge fell to a 4-month low while the University of Michigan report printed a 6-month low. It is difficult to argue for an appetite to spend when the odds are stacked against the consumer. Regardless, given the tout the retail sales gauge has in the fundamental community and the underlying volatility in the markets; big moves may be on the horizon.

Bonds - US 10-Year Treasury Note Futures

The benchmark Treasury note put in for another loss Friday after a second inflation gauge raised expectations of a hawkish turn from the Fed. Now, sitting on support at 107-08 in the active futures contract, the technical setup will converge with the fundamental to produce potentially explosive results. Monday morning's data will act as the first trigger for a big move. Among the indicators scheduled for release that day are the TICs, Empire Manufacturing Survey, NAHB Housing Market Index and retail sales. Going off of probabilities, the sales report for March will be the heavy-weight number as policy makers and economists take note of the key growth component for the economy. However, even if all of Monday's data misses its mark, Tuesday's CPI will be waiting in reserve.
FX - USD/JPY

The US dollar saw a wild day of price action today, especially against the low-yielding Japanese Yen ahead of the release of the G7 communiqué, as the USDJPY pair plunged below 118.50 support before rising above 119.00 once again. Monday could see major volatility once again as any news or commentary from the meeting of G7 Finance Ministers will filter into the markets. Furthermore, the release of advanced retail sales will add to the mix as the figure is anticipated to rebound 0.5 percent in the month of March. While other sectors of the economy may be in the process of slowing, traders will continue to price in a steady hand by the Federal Reserve this year as the US consumer may be as resilient as ever. Such an optimistic result for the retail sector could send USDJPY surging through resistance at the 119.50 level. However, if commentary from the G7 includes warnings on the risks associated with highly leveraged positions, carry trade unwinding could take USDJPY down below 118.00.

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AUDUSD Breaks To A 17-Year High

AUSUSD shot to a 17- year high on Tuesday breaking and closing above its April 05'07 high at 0.8210 to register a high of 1.8266, the highest price seen since October 1990.This is coming on the back of a brief decline off 1.8210 high which ended at 1.8151 level at the beginning of the week. The pair has now resumed its short, medium and longer term uptrend following this development.
ince touching a low of 0.7015 in late Mar'06, the pair has been rising steadily maintaining a pattern of higher highs and higher low (bullish structure) with the exception of a symmetrical triangle,(a consolidation pattern) and another set back(rectangle pattern) after hitting 0.7977 high set in late Dec'06.The pair dropped to as low as 0.7680 in early Mar'07 before finding support at its rising trendline originating in Mar'06.Following the bounce off that level,AUDUSD pushed to the upside invalidating its 2005& 2004 highs/horizontal resistance line at 0.7992/0.8008 in Mar 19'07 to set a new high at 0.8089.The pair has been moving higher since then with minor corrections seen on the daily time frame but none on the weekly chart. The latest of such a correction ended at 0.8151 at the beginning of the week after its recent minor decline from 0.8210 high set in April 05'07 which brought the current upside gains. This development has not only ignited the resumption of its short, medium and longer term uptrend but has seen the pair achieving a fourth week of higher weekly closes with a possibility of adding the fifth one at the end of this week.Additionally, the pair is supported on the daily, weekly and monthly timeframes by its MACD but may have to battle with overbought conditions now rearing its head on the above mentioned timeframes.

The pair is expected to continue further upside momentum following it current upmove aiming at 0.8381,its Oct'1990 high initially with a break of there clearing the way for gains towards its Aug'1990 at 0.8494.A distant resistance is seen at 0.8922,its 1989 high. On the other hand, if the overbought scenario above plays out, it should bring corrections/pullbacks towards its April high at 0.8210 followed by its April 09'07 low at 0.8151.A violation of here shifts focus to its April 04'07/.382 Ret( 0.7680-0.8266 rally) at 0.8063/43 and then its 2005/2004 highs/horizontal resistance line at 0.7992/0.8008.This is a significant zone which is expected to reverse roles and provide support having served in similar capacity in the past as resistance.

On the whole, having broken through important resistance levels in the past weeks, AUDUSD is likely to shoot for more upside gains in the days and weeks ahead.


Mohammed Isah
FX Instructor LLC

[REDROSE]

هي كده

الله ينور بس مش فاهمين
يعطيك العافيه

[galal37]

ياريت لو ترجمة عشان نفهم وجزاك الله خيرا

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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary

U.S. Review

What Comes Next

This week's light schedule of economic reports put a great deal of weight on Wednesday's release of the minutes from the May 20-21 FOMC meeting. Recall that this was the meeting where the Fed slightly changed the language in their policy statement from language indicating that any future Fed moves would be to raise interest rates to something that suggested that the next move could go either way.

The financial markets initially interpreted this change in wording as the first step on the way to an easier monetary policy. The correct interpretation, however, was that the change in wording merely gives the Fed more flexibility to respond to changes in the economy, such as the collapse in the subprime lending market.

Such events and their impact on the economy may require the Fed to cut rates at some point. We are not there now, however. The majority of the Board of Governors and FRB presidents still see the risks of higher inflation as outweighing the odds of economic growth slowing. Moreover, there is still little evidence that the problems in the subprime market are spreading,

Subprime Contagion

Although there are plenty of news stories suggesting the contrary, there is still very little evidence that the problems in the subprime and Alt-A loan markets are spreading to other areas of the mortgage market or to other types of lending. Delinquency rates on prime conforming mortgages have increased slightly in recent months, but remain near historical lows. Delinquency rates on auto loans and credit cards have also ticked up slightly but remain at relatively low levels. Moreover, there is still plenty of credit available, even to borrowers with less than stellar credit histories. Consumer spending also appears to be weathering the storm. The majority of retailers reported solid gains in sales during the month of March, when the weather was unseasonably mild and an early Easter helped boost clothing sales. More than two-thirds of the retailers reported sales beat expectations, and spending rose solidly at discounters, which is where problems in the subprime market would most likely show up.

One reason why the problems in the subprime and Alt-A lending may not be spreading to other parts of the economy is that a large share of the problem loans were originated in the past 18 months and many of those loans went to investors and speculators. Retail sales may face a larger hurdle when interest rates on adjustable rate mortgages rise later this year.

While the early Easter boosted retail sales, it also likely triggered an unusual jump in first-time unemployment claims. Claims rose 19,000 during the Easter week and reached their highest level in nearly two months.

Import prices also jumped up by 1.7 percent in March. Prices of petroleum imports surged 9.0 percent, however, while prices of all other imports posted a less spectacular 0.3 percent rise. This increase, however, still brought the year-to-year change in nonpetroleum imports up to 2.9%.

Import prices, along with slowing productivity growth and tight industrial capacity, add up to a tough inflationary environment for policymakers. We have been struck by the number of Fed speakers noting the importance of managing inflation expectations. The Fed not only has to talk-the-talk but they have to walk-the-walk. We interpret this to mean that the FOMC will be reluctant to cut interest rates at the onset of any perceived crisis, be it a major hurricane or problems in subprime lending.
The March PPI, however, proved to be a mixed bag, since the headline PPI rose 1.0% but the core PPI
remained flat. Pipeline inflationary pressures seem moderate, but not absent

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full report of Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary

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Australian & New Zealand Weekly

Week beginning Monday 16 April 2007

• The Australian dollar & the RBA
• Australia: April consumer sentiment and trade prices in light data week
• New Zealand: 'well-behaved' Q1 CPI likely but renewed growth points to June rate rise
• US retail sales, CPI and housing data previewed
• Key economic and financial forecasts.

Australia: The Australian Dollar & the RBA

The Reserve Bank board opted to leave rates unchanged at their April meeting. The market was split on the April decision and remains split on the likelihood of a hike in May. One of the stories doing the rounds in the wake of the April "no move" is that the currency's ability to sustain above 80¢ was a deal breaker.

With this is mind, we felt it was timely to stipulate just where and how the currency feeds into the RBA forecasting and analysis process. The starting point for our review is the RBA's model of the Australian economy.

Our key findings are as follows

1. The terms of trade (ToT) is much more important than the exchange rate for the RBA's analysis of activity.
2. The assumed elasticity of the exchange rate to the ToT is very important to the aggregate forecasting process.
3. The recent moves in the exchange rate and the ToT will be inflationary in a net sense.
4. This net impact, while inflationary, is not huge. It bespeaks more of 'upside risk' to the baseline inflation projection rather than 'rounding up' to a higher most likely outcome.

A sustained appreciation of the real exchange rate (RER) of the Australian dollar, all other things equal, would immediately produce slack in the economy through a shock to activity. In the RBA model, this feeds through to unit labour costs. The appreciation also hits import prices, the $A oil prices and demand in the aggregate. Each event feeds through to both headline and core inflation. A shock of 10% is sufficient to dampen underlying inflation by ½ppt versus baseline over two quarters. The impact peaks just shy of ¾ppt after four quarters, and remains between ½ppt and ¾ppt below baseline thereafter.

In short, in a semi-dynamic scenario, the impact of a 10% RER shock on underlying inflation is enough to reduce core inflation from the top of the band to the middle.

Of course, the above simulation ignores the fact that the currency and the terms of trade exhibit a strong positive relationship, and the terms of trade is a core input to the output gap model. While the RER enters the output gap model as a drag on activity (a negative co-efficient) the ToT enters with a larger, positive co-efficient. A 10% rise in the terms of trade will close the output gap by 0.7ppts, and 10% shock in the RER widens it 0.2ppts. That is a net impact on aggregate resource utilisation of +0.5ppt.

Now let us substitute some real world values into this system. If the markets hold where they are until the end of the quarter, the RER will be up 7.6%yr and the ToT will be up 6.8%yr. Scaling these moves appropriately we find that the net effect is to boost resource utilisation (narrow the output gap) by 0.33ppts.

Given the relative size of their respective co-efficients in the output gap equation, the RER shift would have to exceed the rate of change in the ToT by a factor of 3.8 to be neutral for resource utilisation. Our analysis shows that this is a highly unlikely scenario.

The last time rumours of a currency induced "no move" circulated was in February 2004, when the AUD/USD touched 80¢ in the lead up to the meeting. In terms of the RER, it was up a whopping 21% in the year by the end of the March quarter. The terms of trade was up 5.4% in the year, meeting our requirement of a 4:1 ratio for an activity-depressing RER/ToT move. In the current circumstances, the move in the RER has been nowhere near as extreme. The level of the RER now is basically comparable to the 2004Q1 reading - but the rates of change are far apart.

Moving back to our simulation, the output gap enters the underlying and headline CPI models with a co-efficient of 0.019 and 0.090 respectively. Yet it also enters strongly into the unit labour cost equation, which in turn has much to say about the model's estimates of inflation. Controlling for this issue (and a few others) it is possible to say that the 0.33% narrowing in the output gap we estimated above will add approximately 0.02 percentage points to the baseline core CPI forecast, and 0.08 percentage points to headline.

There are other considerations the RBA board must make when assessing the impact of currency shifts. In particular they may be concerned that the AUD is reaching a critical threshold for some sectors (in much the same way that they are concerned about interest rates reaching a threshold for heavily indebted household sector).

However, the analysis above argues that it is unlikely that a rapidly appreciating currency, or an elevated absolute AUD level of the exchange rate, would be the catalyst to derail a considered position on the stance of policy on the cusp of an RBA board meeting.

Bill Evans, Chief Economist

Australia: Data Wrap

Mar ANZ job ads

• Newspaper job ads rose 2.0% sa in March after a 2.6% decline in February. The renewed uptrend evident through Q4 of 2006 has flattened out.
• However, internet advertising continues to tell a stronger story, with a 1.9% rise in March following a 4.1% rise in February. Combined, total job ads rose 1.9% sa in March (vs 3.4% prev), with trend growth running at 2.1%mth, down on the 2.5% to 3% trend rates in 2006Q4 but still well up on the sub 1%mth rates recorded in mid-2006.
• The trend growth rates in newspaper and total job ads continue to imply at least the maintenance of currently strong employment trend growth (2.9%yr in February), if not a further uptick to 3%yr over H1 2007.

Feb housing finance

• The total number of housing finance commitments by owner-occupiers edged up 0.3% in February following a (revised) 0.5% gain in January.
• Housing finance approvals have regained more than 70% of the ground lost in the wake of last year's interest rate rises in number terms, and are at a new record high in value terms.
• Demand for finance is being supported by strong population growth, rising household incomes and good job security.
• The value of investor finance increased by a surprisingly strong 8.9% in February following a 2.7% rise in January. However, recent strength may be due to existing investors selling property (i.e. to new investors) in order to take advantage of higher tax-free limits for lump-sum transfers into superannuation that expire on June 30.
• The RBA's decision to leave interest rates on hold in early 2007 is likely to add more lift to finance approvals in the months ahead.

Mar employment and unemployment rate

• Employment rose 10.5k (consensus +15k) after a 23.2k rise previously. The participation rate fell 0.1ppt to 64.8%, returning the unemployment rate to a near 31 year low of 4.5% from 4.6%.
• Trend jobs growth is 2.8%yr with full-time growth at 3.2%yr, and leading indicators suggest jobs growth can remain around 3% through mid-2007. This will maintain downward pressure on the unemployment rate, and upward pressure on wage inflation.
• While total jobs growth was softer than expected in March, the detail was undeniably strong. The lower unemployment rate will underpin robust consumer confidence and leave the RBA alert to potential inflation pressures from the persistently tight labour market. Also, the ongoing strength in full-time employment continues to support strong incomes growth, a plus for spending which began 2007 with stronger momentum.

Round-up of local data released last week

Date Release Previous Latest Mkt f/c Apr 10 Mar ANZ job ads -2.6% 2.0% -
Mar NAB business survey 18 17 - Apr 11 Feb housing finance (no.) 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% Apr 12 Mar employment chg 23.2k 10.5k 15k
Mar unemployment rate 4.6% 4.5% 4.6% New Zealand: The Week ahead & Economic Wrap

Core focus

The latest read on consumer inflation will be the main focus this week, along with another temperature check on the housing market.

Last Tuesday's business opinion survey indicated plenty of inflation pressure in the economy, including a sharp lift in firms' intentions to raise prices. Q1 CPI (Wednesday 10:45 NZT) will provide the answer to how much previous inflation pressure is actually being converted into higher prices to the end consumer. Firms' reports of squeezed margins certainly indicate they are having trouble carrying out their pricing intentions in the competitive market.

We expect the CPI to rise 0.7% in Q1, nudging annual inflation up to 2.7%. Higher food, housing and petrol prices will drive the overall increase with lower airfares to provide a significant offset. Elsewhere, higher bus and train fares, the seasonal round of education fee increases, part of phone line rental increases and the remainder of the annual tobacco excise tax increase will add to inflation while a stronger NZD will help dampen tradeable good price rises.

Most focus will be on the non-tradeable and core inflation measures that have become better behaved over the past couple of quarters. On this front, we expect annual nontradeable inflation to extend the recent easing. We have 0.8% q/q and 3.7% y/y factored in for non-tradeable inflation in Q1. The RBNZ has 3.8% y/y for nontradeable inflation.

This raises the possibility of a mild downside surprise to the RBNZ from non-tradeable inflation. On the flipside, the RBNZ is likely to receive an upside surprise to their headline 0.3% q/q and 2.3% y/y forecast, given fuel price increases in March following the MPS.

The Real Estate Institute housing data is expected to be released during the week. We expect another hot read on the housing market, with much of the March activity likely to have been in train before, and not curtailed by, the RBNZ hike in early March. Double digit annual house price growth, sales up around the 11,000 mark for the month, and days to sell slipping back below 30 will all point to a very buoyant market.

The strong housing market data and very strong retail sales will keep the blow torch on the RBNZ. But it is important to note that the retail data relates to February - pre the RBNZ hike and the subsequent strong lift in retail interest rates and NZD. The patient Dr Bollard may well still prefer to wait and see the initial impact of this significant tightening in monetary conditions before acting again.

We think that the OCR will remain unchanged on April 26. This is on the expectation of a third consecutive quarter of well-behaved core inflation, Dr Bollard's revealed patience, and substantial tightening in monetary conditions in recent months that is likely to contain the current surge in activity and associated inflation pressure. However, strength in housing, QSBO indicators, and now retail sales has pushed us across the line to call a June hike.

Data wrap

Business confidence fell to -15% in Q1 from +3% in Q4 according to NZIER's Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion. A predictable business reaction to the RBNZ's March hike and again rising fuel costs. The surprise was that confidence didn't fall further. Moreover, the RBNZ will take no comfort from the survey details showing buoyant economic activity, an increasingly tight labour market, and rising inflation pressure. Domestic trading activity indicators extended recent improvements - providing more evidence that GDP growth in Q1 was at least as strong as it was in Q4. Rising costs are continuing to squeeze firms' margins, with widespread intentions to raise prices as firms attempt to recover costs and maintain profitability.

Retail sales lifted 1.9% in February, with core sales even stronger up 2.3% in the month. This was a very hefty result and reflects strong household income growth and high consumer confidence. Strength was centred in supermarkets, housing related outlets (appliances and hardware), and tourism (accommodation, cafes and restaurants). Annual growth in total sales came in at 6.4%, with core sales lifting 8.3% over the past year.

Round-up of local data released last week

Date Release Previous Latest 10 Apr Q1 NZIER business confidence 3% -15% 13 Apr Feb retail sales 0.7% 1.9% Data previews

Aus Apr Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment

Apr 18, Last: 115.5

• The Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment Index continued to rise in March, boosted by news of interest rates staying on hold.
• Sentiment has seen a marked improvement since late 2006, rising to a two year high. Indeed, March index levels were on a par with average sentiment readings during the 'consumer boom' of 2003 and 2004.
• The main influences on sentiment in April are likely to come from: the RBA's decision to leave rates on hold; continued jobs growth; the sharemarket's strong rebound from March's correction; and the AUD's surge to 17-year highs.

Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment Index

Aus Q1 international trade price indexes

Apr 20, Export: Last: 0.2%, WBC f/c: flat, Mkt f/c: -0.3%
Import: Last: -3.2%, WBC f/c: -0.2%, Mkt f/c: -1.2%

• Export prices rose 0.2% in Q4 with gains in metals and cereals offset by falls in coal and petroleum. Core import prices fell 0.9% with a 1.1% AUD rise, and with petroleum prices down 16.8%, total import prices slumped 3.2%.
• While higher rural and base metals prices saw the USD RBA commodity price index rise 1.4% in Q1, the higher AUD offsets, leaving export prices flat overall. With the import weighted AUD TWI up 1.5% we expect a further fall in core import prices (-0.9%). But with a partial rebound in AUD oil prices (up 4.5%), we expect -0.2% for overall import prices. This gives a further 0.2% rise in the Q1 terms of trade (vs up 3.5% prev).

International trade price inflation

NZ Mar REINZ house prices

Apr 16-20, Last: 13.6%

• The Real Estate Institute housing data is expected to be released during the week - it is usually released between the 15th and 20th of the month. Recently REINZ data has shown strong house price inflation, sales booming, and days to sell remain very low.
• We expect another strong month of housing data: annual price growth in double digits, sales up around the 11,000 mark for the month, and days to sell slipping back below 30.
• We don't expect much drag from the RBNZ hike and subsequent changes in retail interest rates to come through in the March data, with more influence likely in April and May.

REINZ house prices

NZ Q1 Consumer price index

Apr 18, Last: -0.2%, WBC f/c: 0.7%, mkt f/c: 0.6%

• We expect Q1 CPI to rise 0.7%, nudging annual inflation up to 2.7%. The balance of risk to our forecast is downwards, courtesy of the fact that our quarterly forecast is very close to rounding to 0.6%.
• Higher food, housing and petrol prices will drive the overall increase with lower airfares providing a significant offset.
• Non-tradeable inflation in Q1 is expected to extend the easing seen in Q4 - with annual non-tradeable inflation expected to post its lowest annual increase in almost 4 years.

CPI inflation - Quarterly

NZ Mar external migration s.a.

Apr 20, Last: 520, WBC f/c: 1,180

• The net inflow of PLT migrants is expected to rebound in March on a seasonally adjusted basis from a low February.
• On an annual basis, the net inflow is likely to slip slightly. Slower growth in foreign arrivals has more than offset slower NZ departures.
• The annual flows will undershoot the RBNZ's March MPS projection of a net inflow of 15,200 in March 2007.
• Short-term arrivals are expected to remain soft until we see a sustained turnaround in the NZD (unlikely until late this year).

US Mar retail sales

Apr 16, Last: 0.1%, WBC f/c: 0.6%

• Retail sales growth was lacklustre in Jan-Feb, on all the main measures: headline, ex auto and ex auto & gasoline. Indeed that last measure had its weakest month in nearly three years, slipping 0.3%.
• That should change in March. The weekly retail reports through the month were progressively stronger, perhaps helped along by milder weather; gasoline prices have kept on rising, boosting gas station sales; and retail jobs and hours worked growth were strong in Mar.
• Headline retail sales will be constrained to a 0.6% rise due to soft auto sales but ex auto we expect a 0.8% rise (taking out gasoline as well pulls it back to 0.6%).

US retail sales

US Apr New York and Philadelphia Fed indices

Apr 16, NY Fed Last: 1.9, WBC f/c: 15.0
Apr 19, Phily Fed Last: 0.2, WBC f/c: 4.0

• These regional factory surveys converged in March, with NY collapsing nearly 23pts and Philly remaining close to zero: broadly consistent with the national ISM's 50.9 (equivalent to 1.8 on the Fed's scale).
• There is no doubt that US manufacturing has nearly stalled due to inventory correction and less demand for building materials. But we expect some less weak data through Q2, such as March IP (see separate box). For the NY Fed, an April bounce back to double digits would not surprise at all, although the Philly Fed gain should be more muted.

US regional manufacturing surveys

US Mar consumer prices

Apr 17, CPI headline Last: 0.4%, WBC f/c: 0.9%
Apr 17, CPI core Last: 0.2%, WBC f/c: 0.2%

• The headline CPI gain of 0.4% in April was lifted by elevated energy and food prices and a core increase of 0.241%, almost but not quite 0.3%. In Mar, energy (especially gasoline) rose much more sharply, and food pressures persisted, paving the way for a 0.7% shocker (it would be the second highest since 1999)!
• The Feb core increase worringly followed a 0.256% rise in Jan. Another solid 0.2% rise is in prospect for Mar. On trend rents will add over 0.1 ppts to the core, and if other price gains are even slightly above trend, only a pull-back in apparel would prevent a 0.3% core.

US CPI inflation

US Mar housing starts & permits

Apr 17, Starts/Permits Last: 9.0%/-2.5%, WBC f/c: 1.5%/-2.0%

• Housing starts bounced 9% in Feb from Jan's 14% fall, which was due to poor weather on top of weak demand for new homes. Permits posted another 2.5% fall, but their level remained a little above that of starts.
• March construction jobs bounced 56k and hours worked in the sector surged 3.3%. So it is tempting to forecast a further bounce in starts, but falling home sales and nervous homebuilder (NAHB) sentiment suggest otherwise. So we expect just a modest 1.5% rise, while a further 2% decline in permits will suggest the housing downturn will persist for a while yet.
• Watch also NAHB sentiment for April, due Mon 16/4.

US housing starts & permits

US Mar industrial production

Apr 17, Last: 1.0%, WBC f/c: -0.1%

• Industrial production jumped 1% in Feb - its fastest gain in over a year - but the main driving factor was a sharp increase in utility output due to the cold weather. Manufacturing rose just 0.4%, not enough to recover from Jan's 0.5% decline.
• The March headline will certainly be weaker as utility output normalises along with the weather. But the detail should be stronger. Although factory jobs fell further in March, hours worked rose 0.2%, including a 1.8% bounce in the auto sector. So a 0.1% headline fall will mask a 0.6% rise in the manufacturing component.
• Capacity utilistion should ease from 82.0% to 81.8%.

Westpac Institutional Bank

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technical report

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نيوزلندى-دولار بيع

وذلك للاسباب التاليه:

1-دبل توب
2-ديفرجنزسلبى على الشهرى و الاسبوعى و اليومى
3- افراط فى الشراء على جميع المؤشرات (تشبع شراء)

الهدف ونقطه الدخول موضحه بالشارت
تحياتى للجميع
سليل عائله دعبس

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FX Technical Commentary

Euro 1.3575
Initial support at 1.3407 (Apr 11 low) followed by 1.3339 (Apr 9 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3581 (Jan 3, 2005 high) followed by 1.3637 (High Close Dec 30, 2004)

Yen 119.25
Initial support is located at 118.21 (Apr 13 low) followed by 117.87 (38.2% retracement of the 115.15 to 119.55 advance). Initial resistance is now at 119.57 (Apr 13 high) followed by 120.00 (Psychological round number resistance)

Pound 1.9880
Initial support at 1.9782 (Apr 13 low) followed by 1.9709 (Apr 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.9917 (Jan 23 trend high) followed by 2.0000 (Round number resistance)

Australian Dollar 0.8350
Initial support a 0.8233 (April 11 low) followed by 0.8150 (Apr 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8341 (Apr 13 trend high) followed by 0.8376 (Apr open + (Mar range * 0.618)

Gold 686.00
Initial support at 670.63 (Apr 9 low) followed by 663.85 (Apr 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 688.64 (Feb 27 high) followed by 700.00 -Psychological round number

[riroja]

اخواني السلام عليكم اريد مساعدتكم للتحليلات هذا اليوم واكون شاكرا لكم

[riroja]

ارجوكم اكتبوا بلعربيييييييييييييييييييييييييييييي

[galal37]

ياريت حد يترجم

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Sunrise Market Commentary: G7 meeting - Everybody Happy

Global Overview

As expected, the G7 meeting didn't really change the course of events over the weekend. The statement more or less held to the same line that was already set out at the previous meeting(s). Currencies are still supposed to reflect economic fundamentals, but there was no official critics on the weakness of the yen. On top of that some European officials even showed remarkably happy with the current strength of the single currency. So, in this environment, it shouldn't surprise that the euro continues its upmove both against the dollar and the yen. Nothing new under sun, at least not for now. We don't see a fundamental trigger to change the course of events at this stage, but we always grow somewhat more cautious at a time when markets tend to think that things can only go one way. We don't read too many forecasts on 'absurd' high euro levels yet, but nevertheless it will be interesting to closely monitor sentiment if EUR/USD were to clear the all-time highs in quite an aggressive way.

The stock markets, and especially the Asian stock markets this morning look very happy with the course of events. The ever-weakening yen proves a big help for those markets this morning. But also in the US and Europe, stock markets remain remarkably resilient to an economic and monetary environment that shows some ambiguous signals, to say the least. An uncertain economic situation in the US, a strong euro and higher interest rates don't really hurt the respective stock markets at this stage. The same applies to higher oil and commodities prices. With the earnings session coming in full swing this week, it will be interesting to see whether the M&A stories and the earnings results will be able to continue to overcome these challenging macro factors. For the S&P, for example it will be interesting to see whether the index can break above the February highs in a sustainable way. The way equity investors assess the earnings' and macro data this and next week could also become an important factor for sentiment on other markets.