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USD/CHF

Commentary: The longer term outlook for higher prices is intact, although the USDCHF may endure a period of softness following the rejection at the 200 day SMA. Potential support is at the confluence of the 61.8% of 1.2124-1.2230 / channel support near 1.2203. Former resistance at 1.2221 could act as support also. Watch the channel (shown below). A break under the midpoint line of the channel would give short term bears an opportunity. High reward/risk bullish opportunities come to the forefront at channel support


Strategy: Waiting to get bullish against channel support-near 1.2200

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USD/CAD

Commentary: The 5th (from 1.1168) of the 3rd wave (from 1.1825) is in progress and our measured objective for its terminus is the 161.8% extension of 1.1168-1.0965/1.1061 at 1.0733. The larger 4th wave will occur following completion of this large 3rd wave from 1.1825. Oversold and divergent RSI (daily) supports our idea that a bottom is close


Strategy: None

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AUD/USD

Commentary: We maintain that a C wave decline is underway towards the 100% extension of .8390-.8168/.8349 at .8127. Bears are in control as long as .8265 remains intact. .8127 would be where wave C would equal wave A. A break under .8168 would support our view. Daily oscillators are bearish with RSI under 50 and the AUDUSD has slipped below the monthly (long term) bear break level of .8228 (see table on page 1)


Strategy: Bearish against .8265 targeting .8127

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NZD/USD

Commentary: Naturally, Kiwi is in the same position as the AUDUSD. That is, a C wave lower appears to be unfolding from .7403. Wave C would equal wave A at .7161. .7314 is short term resistance but the bearish structure remains intact below as long as price is below .7403. In the 5 wave rally from.6719 to .7491, the 5th wave is extended. 5th wave extensions are sometimes fully retraced so there is the possibility that Kiwi does not find solid support until .7082 (close to the 50% of .6719-.7491).


Strategy: Bearish against .7403 targeting .7161 and .7082

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Forex Mid-Day Technical Report

Dollar Falls after Unexpected Drop in Existing Home Sales

Existing home sales missed expectation by dropping -2.6% from an upwardly revised 6.15m annualized rate to 5.99m. The disappointment in today's data casts much doubt on any sign of stabilization in the housing market suggested by yesterday's strong new home sales data. House prices are down 0.8% yoy while inventory jumped to 8.4 months. Dollar weakens mildly after the news, most notably against the Euro. However, market actions could be limited with market holiday on Monday in sight.

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تحليل اليورو- استرالى

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Forex Weekly Review and Outlook

Could Dollar Survive the Tests?


Dollar was generally higher last week except versus Sterling and Canadian Dollar. However the rise lost steam towards the end of the week, in particular after mixed home sales data which left the markets wonder whether the housing sector in the US is starting to stabilize. On the other hand, Sterling staged a strong rebound across the board after the more hawkish than expected MPC minutes. The coming week, though shortened with market holidays on Monday, will feature some heavy weight data from US including Q1 GDP revision, ISM Manufacturing, Non-Farm Payroll as well as FOMC minutes. Dollar's fortune will very much depends on whether it can survive these tests.
The US economic calendar was rather light last week and results were mixed, giving not much help to define the direction of the greenback. In particular, housing data are confusing. On the one hand, new homes sales report beat expectation by rising 16.2% to 0.98M annualized rate in Apr, much stronger than consensus of 0.86M and being the fastest jump in 14 years. On the other hand, existing home sales missed expectation by dropping -2.6% from an upwardly revised 6.15m annualized rate to 5.99m. The markets are still left in doubt on whether the US housing market is starting to stabilize.
Durable goods orders rose less than expected by 0.6% in Apr, comparing to expectation of 1.0%. However, ex-transport orders rose much stronger than expected by 1.5% comparing to consensus of 0.6%. Also, there were strong upward revisions to Mar's data with headline orders up from 3.7% to 5.0% and ex-transport orders up from 1.4% to 1.5%. Meanwhile, jobless claims rose more than expected to 311k, back to above 300k level and cooling some expectation for a strong NFP this week.
The Strategic Economic Dialogue between China and the U.S. proved to be a non-event, though there were few expectations that it would produce tangible results. No agreement was made on the revaluation on Yuan as China Vice Premier Wu Yi emphasized again that "China will continue to reform its exchange rate on its own initiative, gradually."

Data from Eurozone continued to be solid with German ZEW extending it's winning streak by rising to 24. Ifo index also stay firm at 108.6 though missing expectation of 108.8 by a touch. Gfk consumer confidence also rose strongly to 7.3. The data added to the already wide believe that Jan's VAT hike in German has been shrugged off and prevailing economic strength is still in force. Trade surplus in the Eurozone widened more than expected to 7.4b. However, the Euro was soft against most majors and even though reaching a new record against the Japanese yen, momentum is unconvincing there.
There were hope for a strong rebound in the Japanese yen after Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's warning that the Chinese stock market was vulnerable to a sharp decline. global stock markets was pressured briefly as the yen was benefited on carry trade unwinding. However, the effect was temporary and stocks rebounded and yen back pressured on Friday. The Japanese CPI improved mildly to 0.0% in Apr, comparing to -0.1% in Mar with core CPI improved from -0.3% to -0.1%. In the BoJ minutes for Apr meeting, some members said that BoJ should be aware of how revisions to services price in April will affect CPI and some said upward pressure on consumer prices will gradually rise as the economy expands. Business fixed investment is unlikely to decline significantly since corporate profits remained at a high level. Market's opinion is still divided on whether the next hike from BoJ will happen in Q3 or Q4. But after all, the status of being a low yield currency won't change any time soon.

The BoE minutes of the May meeting was the biggest market mover last week and has boosted Sterling much higher across the board. There were two reasons that provided the support for Sterling. Firstly, markets expected that the decision to raise rates in May was by a 8-1 vote with Blanchflower dissented. But the minutes revealed that the decision was actually on an unanimous 9-0 vote. Secondly, the minutes showed that there the possibility of a 50 bps hike was raised during the meeting and indeed, some voting members leaned towards a 50 bps rate hike. These were considered more hawkish than the markets expected and raised speculation that BoE have another hike sooner than expected. However, the MPC members will still await further figures "to assess the impact of past increases in Bank Rate" and that "should the economy continue to develop broadly in line with the central expectation, Bank Rate could be raised further as necessary". That is, there wasn't much change to the outlook after last week's Inflation Report that BoE will raise rates again in Q3.
There were increased speculation of a 50 bps hike from SNB in June. In particular, after comments from governor Jean-Pierre Roth and then board member Thomas Jordan that the weakness in the Swiss Franc could fuel inflation and SNB is ready to act if this happens. As a result, the Swissy ended up higher against Euro last week.

Data from Swiss saw KOF leading indicator rose further to 1.96 in May

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The Week Ahead

Most European markets will be on holiday with US on Monday. But some heavy weight economic data are scheduled to release that could help determine whether the greenback could extend the rebound that started in Apr. Consumer confidence will be featured on Tuesday. FOMC minutes will be released on Wed. Since the accompanying statement of May's meeting was virtually the same as the previous one, the FOMC could contain few, if any, additional information. Q1 GDP revision on Thur is expected to revise down from 1.3% qoq to 0.9%. Friday will be the most important day with Non-farm payrolls, ISM manufacturing and Apr PCE on the card. Markets expect NFP to improve significantly from Apr's 88k to 135k but the expectation could be adjusted after Wed's ADP employment report.

From Eurozone, consumer inflation, retail sales, employment from Germany will be released with unemployment rate in Eurozone. Particular interest will be on Eurozone M3 money supplied which continued to defy expectations by again and again rising faster than consensus expectation. It'll be interested to see if it will finally slow mildly in Apr as markets expected. Manufacturing PMI will also be featured on Wed.
Some important economic data from Japan will be featured too, including Corporate Service price Index, household spending, unemployment rate, retail sales, industrial production. However, it still doubtful on what could really spark a sustained rebound in the Japanese yen. Stock market movements will continue to be more important that economic data.

Economic calendar in UK is rather light with Nationwide house price, Gfk consumer confidence and manufacturing PMI scheduled. Meanwhile,

Swiss traders will most likely focus on Friday's CPI to see whether the sustained weakness of the Swiss Franc is fueling inflation as Roth said.

Bank of Canada will meet on Tue and is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 4.25% and will be a non-event. However, strength in Wed's PPI and Thur's GDP could spark volatility in the already strong Canadian dollar, which rose to a 30 year high against dollar at 1.0775 last week.
We'll be back on Tuesday

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Weekly Analysis

Headlines: Dollar Grinds Higher- Does it Have More Left

Forex Outlook

The pair EUR/USD continues to bounce within the well established 1.3650-1.3400 range but the bias had clearly been to the dollar long side for most of the week as US data demonstrated surprising resilience. Both Durable Goods Ex-Transport and New Homes sales beat expectations with the later showing the largest 1 month jump in 14 years. A day later however, the market saw a completely different story as Existing Home Sales dropped below the psychologically key 6MM barrier recording their worst showing in 4 years.

The housing data clearly put the crimp into the dollar rally as the bear's arguments regarding the slow motion housing crash appeared to have merit. Even though new home sales jumped 16 percent in the month of April, the biggest rise in 14 years, the median price of homes dropped 10.9 percent, the largest on record. This means that builders, especially corporate ones are in a rush to recoup their investments by having a fire sale on inventory. The far more price sensitive retail sellers in the Existing Home sector refused to slash prices and sales clearly suffered.

Given the fact that Existing Home Sales is a far larger market than New Home Sales, Friday's news was clearly dollar bearish. However, the response in the EUR/USD was relatively muted, as traders looked ahead to next week's key labor market data. Indeed healthy employment results will be crucial to supporting the dollar long thesis. The markets expect 140K print - far better than the 80K reading last month. The strong weekly jobless claims numbers last month offer support for a good Non Farm Payrolls number. However, if the NFP's once again drop below the 100K level, the fallout is likely to be much more severe, as the few weeks respite in the dollar sell-off will come an end with traders once again becoming concerned about the prospect of a US recession in the second half of the year.

The euro ended last week mildly lower, as economic data out of Germany failed to attract new buyers. The final reading of first quarter GDP in the Euro-zone's largest economy went unchanged at 3.6 percent, and while this reiterates the resilience of expansion in the region, the figures did not sway expectations for the European Central Bank. Even mounting optimism amongst German investors and consumers proved lackluster for EUR/USD. With a June hike essentially guaranteed after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet brought back the phrase “strong vigilance”, markets are simply trying to figure out the central bank's next move. However, the decision to raise rates beyond June will be largely dependent upon inflation data, and until we have confirmation that the ECB will maintain their hawkish bias, EURUSD could continue to suffer, albeit at a snail's pace

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تحليل اليورو - دولار

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تحياتى للجميع
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[وليد الحلو]

صباح الفل يا دعبس
معاك تحليل لليورو على تشارت الاربع ساعات .... و بالتوفيق ... اللى كنا تقريبا اتفقنا عليه

ودى و تقديرى

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صباح الفل يا دعبس
معاك تحليل لليورو على تشارت الاربع ساعات .... و بالتوفيق ... اللى كنا تقريبا اتفقنا عليه

ودى و تقديرى

صباح الورد يا حلو باشا
تم الدخول امس
و الله ولى التوفيق

متنساش فرصه الباوند

تحياتى

[وليد الحلو]

صباح الورد يا حلو باشا

تم الدخول امس
و الله ولى التوفيق

متنساش فرصه الباوند

تحياتى

متدخل الياهو يا جدع

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تحليل الدولار اندكس
هل الدولار مقبل على موجه بيع قويه مره اخر
تحليلى الفنى الشخصى المتواضع يؤيد هذا
تحياتى للجميع
سليل عائله دعبس

تابع

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Forex Daily Technical Report

Yen Rebounds on Solid Data, US Consumer Confidence to Improve

The Japanese yen rebounded strongly today after some solid data out of Japan. Unemployment fell sharply in Apr to a fresh 9 year low of 3.8% vs expectation of staying at 4.0%. Household spending also rose much strongly than expected by 1.1% comparing to consensus of 0.1%. Retail sales rebounded from a -1.3% mom drop in Mar to 0.4% rise in Apr, also beat expectation of 0.3%. Together with yesterday's strength in the Corporate Services Price Index, there are increased speculation that BoJ will raise rates again in Q3. However, with CPI still close to deflation as shown in last Friday's data, the fundamental case for another rate hike is not strong enough yet. And how much carry trade position will be triggered by another 25bps hike remains doubtful. Hence, we believe that the Yen will still be more sensitive to the stock markets that rate expectation.

Technically speaking, both USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are losing short term momentum ahead of some key resistance levels. USD/JPY is now facing this year's high of 122.17 which EUR/JPY is facing 61.8% projection level of 164.64. Bearish divergence conditions are seen in both 4 hours chart. Strong rebound in the yen could be triggered in case the near term trend line support are taken out in the near term.

Volatility will likely continue increase as the goes and as traders in Europe and US are back. Conference Board Consumer Confidence in the US will be the main feature today. The index topped in Apr at 111.2 and has been retreating since then. Mild improvement is expected to be seen in May with the index recovering from 104.0 to 105.0. However, any reaction to this piece of data could be brief as traders could hold their bets with a string of important events including FOMC minutes, Q1 GDP revision, PCE, NFP and ISM on the cards later this week.


Bank of Canada is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 4.25% today. In such case, no statement will be released and hence it could be a non-event. The Lonnie is losing some momentum after USD/CAD reached 1.0795 last week and traders will likely focus on the PPI and in particular, GDP data from Canada for the needed catalyst to fuel further rally