توحيد الجهود .. في تحاليل الصفقات والعقود

[aalawee]

Friday January 13, 2006



EUR-USD
1.2036. There is bearish potential for a fall to 1.1974 while 1.2069 - 1.2100 resist. After this fall a recovery up to 1.2100 or 1.2130 is expected.

USD-CHF
1.2854. A corrective/consolidation activity between 1.2754 and 1.2991 is likely for a while.

USD-JPY
114.36. It should test 115.23 area after which a sell off down to 113.70 or extended to 113.04 area is expected.

GBP-USD
1.7602. Current move should be supported in 1.7591 zone for a rise to above 1.7783. A break below 1.7489 opens the way down.

EUR-CHF
1.5470. Decline should be supported around 1.5456 - 1.5443 zone for rally to above 1.5511. A clear break of 1.5443 will damage this expected rally.

EUR-JPY
137.64. Current fall seems to be over near 137.38 or 136.90 for a rebound towards 137.85 - 138.22 area.

EUR-GBP
0.6838. There is bearish potential for a fall to 0.6812 while 0.6847 - 0.6860 resist. After this fall a recovery up to 0.6860 or 0.6872 is expected.

AUD-USD
0.7502. It is a triangle configuration. Market should break either side. Acceleration should occur above 0.7565 or under 0.7496 limits.

USD-CAD
1.1627. It may attempt a test higher to 1.1641 - 1.1667 after which weakness may set it to a drift down to below 1.1573 limit.

[aalawee]

A look at current Events and Issues

Yesterdays News and Events:

The US Dollar closed the week low despite gains in PPI and Retail Sales data. PPI was up 0.9% and Retail Sales gained 0.7%, this was not enough to attract new buyers and EURUSD rose above 1.21 in a very active Friday afternoon. In Asia this morning the Dollar came under fresh pressure from the start, GBPUSD rose to as high as 1.7795, testing key resistance at 1.78 for a first time.
ECB Trichet on Friday said that the ECB must continue to carefully watch inflation. The ECB President is of course a rate-hawk, very much in favor of the next tightening.
Todays Key Issues:

UK PPI data for the month of December is due at 10.30Am GMT. PPI Input is forecast to rise 1.2% for a massive YoY change of 12.5%, PPI Output should only grow 0.1% or 2.3% YoY. Germany and Switzerland are also due to release December PPI data sometimes today, no forecasts available.
US Markets will be partially closed for Martin Luther King day, this should not have a great impact on currency trading with major banks open for business as usual.
The Risk Today:

EURUSD: While above 1.2120 we look to re-test the 1.2170 level to extend the top to 1.2230 key resistance, a high daily close could trigger further rise towards 1.24 later in the week. Failure to advance on top leaves the pair neutral to continue ranging between 1.1970 and 1.2170.

1H USDCHF: The green long-term resistance level held off any Dollar-rise and the pair has fallen back to the 1.2750 level. Strong support at 1.2725 and again at 1.2675 need to be bypassed before we can target a fall to 1.2450.

Daily USDJPY: While the 114.80 level held again on Friday, a try to the downside early this morning was stopped at 113.80 and the pair rallied back to 114.60. 114.80 is still a strong resistance, a daily close above this should see us test the medium-term falling trend-line at 116 but only a break there ends the view that the long-term bullish support underneath 113 must be reached.

Resistance and Support:

EURUSDGBPUSDUSDJPYUSDCHF1.2280 S1.7915 M116.00 T1.2880 K1.2230 K1.7800 S115.05 S1.2835 S1.2175 S1.7785 K114.80 K1.2780 M1.21401.7740114.601.27551.2120 M1.7730 M114.25 M1.2725 S1.2085 S1.7705 S113.85 K1.2665 K1.2000 K1.7660 K112.95 T1.2600 MS: Strong, M: Minor, T:Trendline, K: Keylevel, P:pivot

[aalawee]

Monday January 16, 2006



EUR-USD
1.2135. It should trade lower to 1.2061. Resistances are at 1.2139 and 1.2176. A break of 1.2236 is bullish.

USD-CHF
1.2767. While above 1.2763 - 1.2727 zone a corrective upmove could test 1.2819 or 1.2839. After which it should resume its downtrend.

USD-JPY
114.21. There are initial signs of a good corrective recovery towards 114.5 or even 114.62. Supports at 114.18 and 113.98 zone.

GBP-USD
1.7756. Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 1.7797 or 1.7897 if support around 1.7711 hold. After which a pullback to 1.7711 - 1.7676 zone is possible.

EUR-CHF
1.5492. Current rise should end around 1.5489 or 1.5507. Objectives of this downmove are 1.5473 or 1.5455. A rise above 1.5523 is again bullish.

EUR-JPY
138.60. It should trade lower to 137.89. Resistances are at 138.67 and 139.02. A break of 139.47 is bullish.

EUR-GBP
0.6834. It should test higher than 0.6849. Entry point are at 0.6822 and 0.6814. A break of 0.6795 is bearish.

AUD-USD
0.7549. Corrective dips should ideally halt near 0.7533 or 0.7524 for one more thrust upwards towards 0.755 - 0.7567 area or 0.7586 in extention. Fall below 0.7514 puts it back on a downward path.

USD-CAD
1.1598. While below 1.159 - 1.1606 it might drop to 1.1573 or below 1.1548 zone.

[aalawee]

Tuesday January 17, 2006



EUR-USD
1.2127. A corrective rise should ideally test 1.2166 or even higher than 1.2205. Supports are at 1.2100. Stop loss below 1.2067 zone.

USD-CHF
1.2786. It should test 1.2824 area after which a sell off down to 1.2741 or extended to 1.2695 area is expected.

USD-JPY
114.96. Market looks set for gains towards 115.45 or above in extension. Dips should find support at 114.62 - 114.38 zone.

GBP-USD
1.7686. It looks more likely that it would rise to 1.7774 from 1.7664 or 1.7619. After which a downside move is expected.

EUR-CHF
1.5507. Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 1.5524 or 1.5533 if support around 1.5501 hold. After which a pullback to 1.5501 - 1.5495 zone is possible.

EUR-JPY
139.41. Currently uptrend should end around 140.17 - 139.74 area. A correction down to below 138.76 is expected. A rise above 140.07 will abort the expected correction.

EUR-GBP
0.6857. Currently uptrend should end around 0.6867 - 0.6870 area. A correction down to below 0.6838 is expected. A rise above 0.6883 will abort the expected correction.

AUD-USD
0.7541. There are initial signs of a good corrective recovery towards 0.7559 or even 0.7569. Supports at 0.7536 and 0.7522 zone.

USD-CAD
1.1581. It should be subject to more weakness towards 1.1564. After which a correction to above 1.1605 is anticipated. A break of 1.1547 is bearish.

[aalawee]

A look at current Events and Issues

Yesterdays News and Events:

A good day for the US Dollar. Strong data in form of low weekly claims, the 4-week average is down at 289k, best level in more than a year. Durable Goods orders also fared strongly, with the strong November data being revised up and a 1.3% gain in December. The Dollar rose, continuing its move against the YEN to reach a high of 116.60, against the European currencies it advanced inside this weeks range, medium-term traders are likely to try and pick up cheap Euro or GBP if we dip further today.
The German Finance Ministry released their forecast for a budget deficit of 3.5% in 2006. They also added that 2nd round effects on inflation are very limited.
Todays Key Issues:

German Consumer Sentiment Index was reported up to 4.6 from 4.0 a month ago, slightly better than forecast. EURUSD rose to 1.2220 from the 1.2195 low.
Swiss January KOF Leading Indicator will be released at 10.30GMT, it should rise slightly to 1.44 from 1.36 last month.
The US releases preliminary 4th Quarter GDP data today at 1.30pmGMT. Expectations are for a slow quarter with growth of just 2.8%. Personal Consumption is to blame, it is expected to rise by just 0.5%.
US December New Home Sales are due at 3pm, the are forecast at 1.2m units, down from 1.24m in November.
The Risk Today:

1H EURUSD: Consolidation has lasted the whole week and today we ought to continue in the same manner with resistance at 1.2220 and 1.2240 expected to last till US data is released. Downside can stretch to the medium-term rising trend at 1.2160 and maybe close the weekend-gap at 1.2135/45. As long as the week closes above 1.2160, we can keep the bullish outlook for 1.2450. Risk is for an early rise through 1.2240 and a quick spike to 1.2320.

4H GBPUSD: There is more space to explore to the downside before we reach the medium-term rising trend-line above 1.77, trade short Cable intra-day while 1.7835 resistance holds. Any weekly close above the green long-term trend at 1.7710 is bullish for a new rise to 1.7950 early next week.