توحيد الجهود .. في تحاليل الصفقات والعقود

[aalawee]

A look at current Events and Issues

Yesterdays News and Events:

The last week of the year saw currency markets remain fairly range-bound. Only Cable managed a big day with a 2 cent fall on December 28th, most of that move has been corrected since markets re-opened for the year, expect liquidity to flow back into markets this week and trading to resume normally. The medium-term outlook for the Dollar is rather positive, like to get long above 1.1950 against the Euro and near 1.7400 against the Pound, USDJPY seems a riskier choice as we may see a continuation of the 5-Yen fall seen at the beginning of December.
Todays Key Issues:

Swiss PMI Index fell to 56.9 points in December from 57.8 the previous month, weaker than expected but still at a positive level above-50.

Euroland PMI was out at a strong 53.6, its highest reading in over 1year.

The UK will also release its December PMI, it is due at 9.30GMT and should remain unchanged at 51.

US ISM Manufacturing Survey is due at 12pmGMT, it is forecast to shed 1.1 points to 57.

The highlight of the day will be the FOMC minutes of the 13 December meeting, analysts expect hints of more rate hikes to come early in the year.
The Risk Today:

EURUSD: 1.1800 – 1.1885 remain key levels. Despite an intra-day high to 1.1910 we have yet to close a day above the key resistance. If it does we risk a 1cent ascension towards 1.2000, the long-term bearish resistance. Take advantage of a spike higher to establish medium-term short positions, initial target will be 1.1660.

Daily USDJPY: Roughly 50% of the 121.40 to 115.60 fall has been corrected and so far the resistance above 118 has held well. While below, we risk breaking the minor corrective support at 116.90, a daily close underneath could see the pair accelerate for a continuation down to as low as the long-tem support near 112.50 in the coming weeks.

Resistance and Support:

EURUSDGBPUSDUSDJPYUSDCHF1.1990 T1.7430 M118.45 S1.3210 K1.1910 S1.7400 K118.00 K1.3165 S1.1885 K1.7340 S117.70 M1.3130 M1.18701.7310117.101.30851.1835 M1.7245 M116.95 K1.3085 M1.1800 K1.7190 K116.60 M1.3050 K1.1760 M1.7120 S116.00 S1.3015 SS: Strong, M: Minor, T:Trendline, K: Keylevel, P:pivot

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[aalawee]

Thursday January 5, 2006


EUR-USD
1.2120.
One move lower to 1.2035 or 1.1951 is anticipated while below 1.2132 - 1.2174 area. Stop loss above 1.2229 zone.

USD-CHF
1.2767.
It may meet resistance in 1.2767 - 1.2804 zone for a drift down to 1.2655 zone, after which bounce to 1.2840 is anticipated.

USD-JPY
116.09.
It should test higher than 116.49. Entry point are at 115.85 and 115.64. A break of 115.20 is bearish.

GBP-USD
1.7586.
One move lower to 1.7486 or 1.7385 is anticipated while below 1.7603 - 1.7653 area. Stop loss above 1.7719 zone.

EUR-CHF
1.5472.
We prefer to see an attempt to below 1.5445 or below 1.5418 in extension. A clear break of 1.5501 is bullish.

EUR-JPY
140.71.
Current rise seems to be over near 140.75 or 141.20 for a retracement towards 140.3 - 140.06 area.

EUR-GBP
0.6891.
It looks set for gains to above 0.6906. Supports at 0.6877 and 0.6884. A break of 0.6870 will damage this bullish structure.

AUD-USD
0.7468.
One move lower to 0.7416 or 0.7364 is anticipated while below 0.7476 - 0.7502 area. Stop loss above 0.7536 zone.

USD-CAD
1.1478.
Current fall is near an end of wave around 1.1395 - 1.1403 zone, a rally should then procede to above 1.1528 or 1.1552. Fall below 1.1380 would cancel this scenario.

[aalawee]

A look at current Events and Issues

Yesterdays News and Events:

The Dollar continued its slide on Wednesday, the Euro reached a high of 1.2145 and the British Pound traded at 1.7620. US Factory Orders, growing at a solid pace in line with expectations did little to reverse the movement. Overnight, the Dollar gained back some of its losses, but the outlook points to further depreciation.
Todays Key Issues:

German Retail Sales for November were reported weaker than expected with a monthly drop of 1% and a YoY change of -0.6%, it caused EURUSD to weaken to a low of 1.2083.
At 9.30GMT the UK December PMI Services Survey is due, it is forecast at a slightly higher level of 56 (+0.2).
Lots of European data at 10amGMT with November PPI forecast with an unchanged yearly increase of 4.1%, November Retail Sales expected up 0.4% for the month, 0.8% YoY and finally December Consumer Confidence Index which ought to stand at -12 after -13 last month.
US Weekly Jobless Claims are out at 1.30pmGMT, they should stabilize around 423k. ISM Non-manufacturing report at 3pm will draw more interest, the December Index is believed to improve to 59.2 from 58.5.
The Risk Today:

1H EURUSD: Since spiking at 1.2145 in NY late yesterday, the pair has taken a breath, allowing short-term trend-line to catch up. Support at 1.2080, remain long while above it, next move through 1.2110 should see a surge to 1.2175. An hourly breech of the trend carries the risk of a dip down to the 1.1995 key support.

1H USDJPY: Short-term bearish trend held well overnight before the pair fell back near the 115.70 key support. The bearish trend will cross this support area by the end of the day, so chances are high that the next step lower will come soon, target is 113.70.

Resistance and Support:

EURUSDGBPUSDUSDJPYUSDCHF1.2175 K1.7620 K116.60 K1.2930 S1.2140 M1.7590 M116.35 S1.2885 S1.2110 S1.7560 M116.15 T1.2815 K1.20901.7530115.901.28101.2080 M1.7525 S115.65 K1.2770 M1.2045 S1.7500 K115.10 M1.2735 S1.1995 K1.7410 S114.70 S1.2665 SS: Strong, M: Minor, T:Trendline, K: Keylevel, P:pivot

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[aalawee]

A look at current Events and Issues

Yesterdays News and Events:

The Dollar continued its slide on Wednesday, the Euro reached a high of 1.2145 and the British Pound traded at 1.7620. US Factory Orders, growing at a solid pace in line with expectations did little to reverse the movement. Overnight, the Dollar gained back some of its losses, but the outlook points to further depreciation.
Todays Key Issues:

German Retail Sales for November were reported weaker than expected with a monthly drop of 1% and a YoY change of -0.6%, it caused EURUSD to weaken to a low of 1.2083.
At 9.30GMT the UK December PMI Services Survey is due, it is forecast at a slightly higher level of 56 (+0.2).
Lots of European data at 10amGMT with November PPI forecast with an unchanged yearly increase of 4.1%, November Retail Sales expected up 0.4% for the month, 0.8% YoY and finally December Consumer Confidence Index which ought to stand at -12 after -13 last month.
US Weekly Jobless Claims are out at 1.30pmGMT, they should stabilize around 423k. ISM Non-manufacturing report at 3pm will draw more interest, the December Index is believed to improve to 59.2 from 58.5.
The Risk Today:

1H EURUSD: Since spiking at 1.2145 in NY late yesterday, the pair has taken a breath, allowing short-term trend-line to catch up. Support at 1.2080, remain long while above it, next move through 1.2110 should see a surge to 1.2175. An hourly breech of the trend carries the risk of a dip down to the 1.1995 key support.

1H USDJPY: Short-term bearish trend held well overnight before the pair fell back near the 115.70 key support. The bearish trend will cross this support area by the end of the day, so chances are high that the next step lower will come soon, target is 113.70.

Resistance and Support:



EURUSDGBPUSDUSDJPYUSDCHF1.2175 K1.7620 K116.60 K1.2930 S1.2140 M1.7590 M116.35 S1.2885 S1.2110 S1.7560 M116.15 T1.2815 K1.20901.7530115.901.28101.2080 M1.7525 S115.65 K1.2770 M1.2045 S1.7500 K115.10 M1.2735 S1.1995 K1.7410 S114.70 S1.2665 SS: Strong, M: Minor, T:Trendline, K: Keylevel, P:pivot

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[aalawee]

Friday January 6, 2006


EUR-USD
1.2110.
Uptrend is still intact. It should continue to rally to 1.2132 or 1.2154 if supports at 1.2099 area hold. We anticipate a pullback to 1.2099 - 1.2088 zone as part of a triangle whitin a bullish structure. Upper break of this triangle lies at 1.2132 limit.


USD-CHF
1.2757.

It should register further gains to 1.2807 while 1.2729 caps downside attempts. Stop loss below 1.2700 zone.


USD-JPY
115.91.
Prefer a fall to 115.83 or 115.62. Then
a correction to 116.19 is anticipated. A clear break of 115.32 is again bearish.


GBP-USD
1.7559.
Current upmove should be over between1.7575 and 1.7545. A correction down to 1.7442 is anticipated. A break of 1.7604 is bullish.

EUR-CHF
1.5449.
We prefer to see an attempt to below 1.543 or below 1.5410 in extension. A clear break of 1.5471 is bullish.

EUR-JPY
140.37.
It looks more likely that it would rise to above 140.63 or 140.84 from 140.19 or 139.95. After which a downside move to below 139.53 is expected.

EUR-GBP
0.6896.
Corrective dips should halt near 0.6879 for one more thrust upwards towards 0.6903. Stop loss below 0.6861 zone.

AUD-USD
0.7474.
A correction down to 0.7450 or lower is now expected from 0.7480 or 0.7491. A break above 0.7509 is needed to turn bullish.

USD-CAD
1.1621.
A corrective/consolidation activity between 1.1503 and 1.177 is likely for a while.

[ابوساره]

هلا باخوي علاوي !!
هلا بالأخ الحبيب علاوي, لك وحشه انت وكل الاخوان, حبيت اسلم عليك ياغالي واهنيك على المعرف الجديد

[aalawee]

هلا باخوي علاوي !!
هلا بالأخ الحبيب علاوي, لك وحشه انت وكل الاخوان, حبيت اسلم عليك ياغالي واهنيك على المعرف الجديد

هلا والله بالطيبين من طول الغيبات جاب الغنايم

حمدلله على السلامة وانت يالغالي لك وحشة اكثر

يعني ماتجي المنتدى الا اذا سال عليك ابو فهد
والله يهنيك بالدين والايمان
لاتقطعنا واحنا لمواضيعك بالاشواق

حبي وتقديري

[aalawee]

دعونا نوحد الجهود يااخوان
اين التحاليل ترا الشباب ملوا من تحاليل بس

A look at current Events and Issues

Yesterdays News and Events:

A day of sideways movement for the Dollar, caused it to leave the bearish channels against the four majors. Good results of the December ISM Non-manufacturing Index which increased more than expected to 59.8 from 58.5.
The bearish news for the US-Dollar came out of China with comments to accelerate the diversification of Central Bank Reserves. This can only mean that less US-Dollars will be bought in the future, part of today’s essential Net Investment Inflows into the US.
Todays Key Issues:

Swiss Unemployment Rate rose to 3.8% in December, with registered unemployed up 5k compared to last month, YoY the data looks better, unemployment is down 7k and Job vacancies increased slightly.
Euroland Unemployment report is due at 10amGMT, the unemployment rate is expected unchanged at 8.3%.
German November Industrial Production at 11GMT, a monthly fall of 0.3% is forecast, Yoy rise should be 4.8%.
Markets may wait for US December Nonfarm payrolls at 1.30pmGMT. Analysts predict no change in employment, leaving the unemployment rate at 5%. Average Hourly Earnings are expected up 0.2%, the YoY change should come in just above 3%.
The Risk Today:

EURUSD: 1.2080 – 1.2120 range is likely to hold till the US employment report hits the market. A positive report should see the Dollar gain, 1.1990 would be a likely target, a break to the upside has potential for 1.2175.

1H USDCHF: It is still trading beyond the Long-term rising support at 1.2830, the weekly close tonight will be key. Strong support 1.2750, intra-hour we may allow for a dip to 1.2720, but expect to spend a fairly range-bound morning. To the upside a break at 1.2825/30 may be limited to 1.2850 but could also top 1.2915 and is bullish for next week.

1H GBPUSD: Bullish trend has ceded, bearish resistance at 1.7550, initial dip to 1.7500 can be expected, more if the US data is strong. Risk on top is unlikely to bypass 1.7620 yet, but a weekly close above 1.7330 keeps the pair bullish for 1.78 next week.

Resistance and Support:

EURUSDGBPUSDUSDJPYUSDCHF1.2175 K1.7700 S116.60 K1.2930 S1.2140 M1.7620 K116.35 S1.2850 S1.2110 S1.7560 M116.15 M1.2820 K1.20901.7530116.101.27901.2080 S1.7525 S115.85 M1.2750 K1.2060 M1.7500 K115.60 K1.2720 M1.1990 K1.7410 S115.10 S1.2665 SS: Strong, M: Minor, T:Trendline, K: Keylevel, P:pivot

[aalawee]

دعونا نوحد الجهود يااخوان
اين التحاليل ترا الشباب ملوا من تحاليلي لوحدي بس
Todays Key Issues:.
The Risk Today:

EURUSD: 1.2080 – 1.2120 range is likely to hold till the US employment report hits the market. A positive report should see the Dollar gain, 1.1990 would be a likely target, a break to the upside has potential for 1.2175.

1H USDCHF: It is still trading beyond the Long-term rising support at 1.2830, the weekly close tonight will be key. Strong support 1.2750, intra-hour we may allow for a dip to 1.2720, but expect to spend a fairly range-bound morning. To the upside a break at 1.2825/30 may be limited to 1.2850 but could also top 1.2915 and is bullish for next week.

1H GBPUSD: Bullish trend has ceded, bearish resistance at 1.7550, initial dip to 1.7500 can be expected, more if the US data is strong. Risk on top is unlikely to bypass 1.7620 yet, but a weekly close above 1.7330 keeps the pair bullish for 1.78 next week.

, M: Minor, T:Trendline, K: Keylevel, P:pivot

هذه التحاليل تثبت براعتها يوم بعد يوم

[aalawee]

The latest fx market comments from our forex trading desk.




Monday January 9, 2006

EUR-USD
1.2151.
Current upmove should be over between1.2166 and 1.2137. A correction down to 1.2035 is anticipated. A break of 1.2195 is bullish.

USD-CHF
1.2700.
It might hold above 1.2687 or 1.2652 for a rise towards above 1.2769. Stop loss below 1.2652 zone.

USD-JPY
114.41.
Market should meet resistance at 114.98. We expect then an extended move down to 113.99 -112.71 area.

GBP-USD
1.7704.
A corrective/consolidation activity between 1.7571 and 1.7876 is likely for a while.

EUR-CHF
1.5432.
Current fall is near an end of wave around 1.5400 - 1.5426 zone, a rally should then procede to above 1.5446 or 1.5458. Fall below 1.5384 would cancel this scenario.

EUR-JPY
139.02.
Market should meet resistance at 139.51. We expect then an extended move down to 138.46 -137.56 area.

EUR-GBP
0.6863.
Market should meet resistance at 0.6874. We expect then an extended move down to 0.6854 -0.6831 area.

AUD-USD
0.7541.
Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 0.7555 or 0.7616 if support around 0.7515 hold. After which a pullback to 0.7515 - 0.7496 zone is possible.

USD-CAD
1.1656.
Should test support at 1.1605 while below 1.1656. If support at 1.1605 holds it can rise up to1.1717, if not it should fall to below 1.1554 zone.

[aalawee]

The latest fx market comments from our forex trading desk.


Monday January 9, 2006

EUR-USD
1.2151.
Current upmove should be over between1.2166 and 1.2137. A correction down to 1.2035 is anticipated. A break of 1.2195 is bullish.

USD-CHF
1.2700.
It might hold above 1.2687 or 1.2652 for a rise towards above 1.2769. Stop loss below 1.2652 zone.

USD-JPY
114.41.
Market should meet resistance at 114.98. We expect then an extended move down to 113.99 -112.71 area.

GBP-USD
1.7704.
A corrective/consolidation activity between 1.7571 and 1.7876 is likely for a while.

EUR-CHF
1.5432.
Current fall is near an end of wave around 1.5400 - 1.5426 zone, a rally should then procede to above 1.5446 or 1.5458. Fall below 1.5384 would cancel this scenario.

EUR-JPY
139.02.
Market should meet resistance at 139.51. We expect then an extended move down to 138.46 -137.56 area.

EUR-GBP
0.6863.
Market should meet resistance at 0.6874. We expect then an extended move down to 0.6854 -0.6831 area.

AUD-USD
0.7541.
Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 0.7555 or 0.7616 if support around 0.7515 hold. After which a pullback to 0.7515 - 0.7496 zone is possible.

USD-CAD
1.1656.
Should test support at 1.1605 while below 1.1656. If support at 1.1605 holds it can rise up to1.1717, if not it should fall to below 1.1554 zone.

[aalawee]

A look at current Events and Issues

Yesterdays News and Events:

US Non-farm payrolls increased by 108k in December and the previous months were revised up, but the Dollar was sold off none-the-less to finish the week at the low. Strongest performers were the British Pound with a high of 1.7720 and the Japanese YEN with a low of 113.75. Both currencies have more space to explore from here but the move should end this week and their momentum is expected to slow considerably.
The Bank of England will hold its rate meeting this Wednesday, interest rates should again remain unchanged at 4.5%. On Thursday, the ECB will hold their first meeting this year, it is too early for the next step and rates are expected to remain at 2.25%.
Todays Key Issues:

Euroland Current Account and Trade Balance for November are out early this morning, no forecast is available.
The only US data is November Consumer Credit at 8pmGMT. After shrinking by $7.2Bln previously, it is forecast to grow by $4.6Bln.
Australia releases its November Trade Balance at 0.30amGMT tomorrow, no forecast available, October saw a deficit of a $1.3Bln.
The Risk Today:

EURUSD: 1.2175 was the target, we’ve reached this level on Friday.
Initial support at 1.2125, while above we may rise to 1.2225 intra-day, sell if we see such a rise. A break on the downside should lead to 1.2040, key support this week 1.1970, buy it if we see such a dip. A look at the daily chart reveals how we’ve broken a number of important resistance lines. The direction has changed bullish and we will expect a rise towards 1.26 in the weeks to come.

Daily USDJPY: With 112.75 the 62% retracement has almost been reached. The pair may fall further to as low as 112.70 but that level is expected to be very strong and a basis for a counter-move back towards 116.

Resistance and Support:

EURUSDGBPUSDUSDJPYUSDCHF1.2220 S1.7800 K115.10 K1.2835 K1.2175 K1.7750 S114.45 S1.2785 S1.2150 S1.7720 S114.15 M1.2750 T1.21401.7720113.901.26901.2125 M1.7675 M113.60 S1.2660 K1.2080 S1.7620 T113.30 M1.2600 M1.1970 K1.7550 K112.70 K1.2550 SS: Strong, M: Minor, T:Trendline, K: Keylevel, P:pivot

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[aalawee]

The latest fx market comments from our forex trading desk.


Wednesday January 11, 2006



EUR-USD
1.2151.

Current rise seems to be over near 1.2166 or 1.2288 for a retracement towards 1.2044 - 1.1976 area.

USD-CHF
1.2800.
Market should meet resistance at 1.2852. We expect then an extended move down to 1.257 -1.2262 area.

USD-JPY
114.40.
Current fall seems to be over near 114.32 or 112.99 for a rebound towards 115.64 - 116.35 area.

GBP-USD
1.7639.
Current rise seems to be over near 1.7713 or 1.7899 for a retracement towards 1.7527 - 1.743 area.

EUR-CHF
1.5445.
Market should not go lower than 1.5367. After this move down it should go up to 1.5421 - 1.5472 area.

EUR-JPY
138.00.
Resistances lie around 139.95 and 141.61. It should test lower towards 138.3 zone. A clear break of 137.63 would be bearish.

EUR-GBP
0.6847.
Preferred view is for a fall to below 0.684 while 0.6868 - 0.6875 area resists. A clear break of 0.6898 would be bullish.

AUD-USD
0.7542.
Current rise seems to be over near 0.7547 or 0.7624 for a retracement towards 0.7469 - 0.7428 area.

USD-CAD
1.1681.
It may attempt a test higher to 1.1692 after which weakness may set it to a drift down to below 1.1498 limit.

[aalawee]

A look at current Events and Issues

Yesterdays News and Events:

A very strong ZEW Survey surprised traders in European morning, the Sentiment Index for Euroland reached a strong 66.1, in Germany Sentiment rose to a 2-year high of 71. EURUSD reacted with a spike to 1.2110 but was sold of the in the aftermath to remain locked in a small range for the reminder of the day.

While short-term traders favor a deeper correction of the Dollar decline, the issue of less Central Bank reserves pouring into the Dollar has raised concern. Add that to the long-term technical analysis, where trend-lines in EURUSD and USDCHF were broken the first week of the New Year, this week USDJPY and GBPUSD levels are coming under pressure.
Todays Key Issues:

The Bank of England starts its MPC meeting today, but the rate decision is only announced tomorrow, a short while ahead of the ECB.

Only data is the UK visible Trade Balance for November at 9.30am. The deficit is expected to grow by 0.5Bln to £5Bln, the Trade deficit with the EU accounts for about half of that.
At 00.30amGMT tomorrow Australia will release its December Unemployment Rate, it stood at 5.1% in November.
The Risk Today:

EURUSD today can continue with its correction which has been going too slow. Initial support at 1.2045, next at 1.2010, key 1.1960 must hold. Top next ascension through 1.2085 should see a 1 cent rise and possible challenge of the 1.2220 key.

1H USDJPY: This morning the 114.80 level has been tested for a third time, expect to stretch it to at least 114.95, the medium-term trend-line. Closing the day above that is bullish for a return to 116.60. Breaking the bottom sends it to 113.80 in the short-term and probably 100 points lower to the long-term rising support.

Resistance and Support:

EURUSDGBPUSDUSDJPYUSDCHF1.2220 K1.7800 K116.60 S1.2930 M1.2125 S1.7720 S115.35 S1.2885 S1.2085 M1.7660 S114.95 T1.2845 K1.20601.7620114.801.28201.2045 S1.7600 M114.30 T1.2790 T1.2005 S1.7585 S113.80 S1.2670 K1.1960 K1.7500 K112.75 K1.2560 SS: Strong, M: Minor, T:Trendline, K: Keylevel, P:pivot

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[aalawee]

Thursday January 12, 2006



EUR-USD
1.2128.
A corrective/consolidation activity between 1.2067 and 1.2206 is likely for a while.

USD-CHF
1.2758.
While below 1.2773 - 1.2802 it might drop to 1.2702 or below 1.2645 zone.

USD-JPY
114.14.
There is bearish potential for a fall to 113.74 while 114.31 - 114.52 resist. After this fall a recovery up to 114.52 or 114.72 is expected.

GBP-USD
1.7644.
Market should hold major support at 1.7538 before rising towards 1.7703 or even 1.7762 limit.

EUR-CHF
1.5472.
Current rise should end around 1.5464 or 1.5487. Objectives of this downmove are 1.5449 or 1.5426. A rise above 1.5502 is again bullish.

EUR-JPY

138.42.
It should trade higher to 138.66 while 138.29 or 138.17 offers support. Stop loss below 138.05 zone.

EUR-GBP

0.6874
. Current rise seems to be over near 0.6880 or 0.6895 for a retracement towards 0.6865 - 0.6854 area.


AUD-USD

0.7552.
It should trade higher to 0.7585 while 0.7533 or 0.7517 offers support. Stop loss below 0.7500 zone.

USD-CAD
1.1589.
Overall structure is bearish. Decelerating momentum could attract it towards supports at 1.1565 or 1.1543. Major support is clustered around 1.1506 limit.