تحليلات و فرص على العملات

[شريف دعبس]

Strong Payrolls Not Enough to Offset Softer Inflation and Weak Income

• US Dollar: Strong Payrolls Not Enough to Offset Softer Inflation and Weak Income
• Euro: ECB Expected to Raise Rates Next Week
• Japanese Yen Crosses and Canadian Dollar Hit Fresh Decade Highs

US Dollar: Strong Payrolls Not Enough to Offset Softer Inflation and Weak Income

Living up to its reputation, the non-farm payrolls report delivered some serious volatility to the foreign exchange markets. An intraday chart of the EUR/USD revealed rollercoaster like price action which illustrates the difficulty in trading the EUR/USD on non-farm payrolls day. Interestingly, the cleanest NFP reaction was actually in USD/JPY, which trended higher throughout the US trading session. Non-farm payrolls were strong, with corporations adding 157k jobs in the month of May. Manufacturing ISM also beat expectations, rising to 55.0 from 54.7. However this was not enough to negate the day’s disappointments. Personal income dropped for the first time since August 2005 while spending continued to rise. The spread between income and consumption is the widest since May 2006, indicating that consumers are digging deeper in their pockets to fund their purchases, which is never healthy. Evidence of housing market weakness continues to pour in with pending home sales dropping 3.2 percent in the month of April. Inflationary indicators were slightly softer with the PCE core deflator and prices paid falling short of expectations. The bottom line is that the Federal Reserve will continue to stand pat for the remainder of the year. Ten year bond yields rose to 4.95 percent, the highest since August 2006. With the stock market hitting another record high, the Fed will not want to risk creating a bubble by lowering interest rates prematurely. Steady rates benefits USD/JPY but has no immediate impact on the EUR/USD since traders of that pair are focused on next week’s ECB rate decision. The economic calendar is relatively light for the US, but the data that is due for release are important. We are expecting factory orders, service sector ISM, and the trade balance. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will also be speaking on the hot topic of housing and the economy.

Euro: ECB Expected to Raise Rates Next Week

The Euro held up very well despite the stronger US ISM and non-farm payrolls figures. This strength was partially due to robust German retail sales in the month of April which tripled expectations. The market is looking at this number as a validation of a need for further rate hikes next week. ECB President Trichet said this morning that second round inflation effects must be avoided. This language suggests that a hawkish stance after June is not out of the question. What happens after June is will be everyone’s focus next Wednesday. The central bank has provided little clues on where they stand and data has been mixed. For example even though we had solid spending numbers from Germany this morning and a lower unemployment rate for the region as a whole, manufacturing PMI was softer that expected. Data earlier in the week could help to clear the air a bit with Germany factor orders, Eurozone service sector PMI and producer prices due for release.

Meanwhile Swiss data fell short of expectations today with Swiss PMI slipping from 61.9 to 58.9. It seems that even though the franc has remained weak, Swiss businesses are actually less optimistic about business activity. The current account surplus edged higher while consumer prices were right in line with expectations. Unemployment is the only release on the calendar next week.

British Pound: Bank of England Meeting Expected to be a Nonevent

Like the Euro, the British pound held up very well against the US dollar today. In fact, the currency is up across the board thanks to the highest manufacturing PMI reading in 8 months. Both input and output prices increased, which is reflective of the higher prices charged by businesses. Although the UK economic calendar was relatively light this past week, it picks up in the week ahead. We are expecting construction sector PMI, retail sales, service sector PMI, more house price reports, industrial production and another Bank of England rate decision. Unlike the ECB, where the rate decision is expected to be a big market mover regardless of which way the central bank sways, the BoE rate decision will most likely be a nonevent. Having just raised rates last month, even though the central bank could still raise rates again in the months to come, mixed data will prevent them from lifting rates in June. When the BoE leaves rates unchanged, they do not issue any comments or statement, which is why there could be little reaction to the rate announcement.

Japanese Yen Crosses Hit Fresh Decade Highs

One look at the Dow and it is not hard to guess how the Japanese Yen behaved over the past 24 hours. Another record high in the US stock market has sent the yen tumbling once again. Carry trades have continued to perform well with AUD/JPY hitting a fresh 15 year high, NZD/JPY a 17 year high, CAD/JPY a 15 year high and GBP/JPY a 9 year high. As we have said often, the carry will die only when the Dow dies and at this point, the Dow remains strong. The Chinese stock markets are also continuing to rebound, which raises the risk of another policy change by the Chinese government over the next few weeks. Unlike the rest of the world, there is barely any data of consequence in Japan, so expect stocks to continue to drive the currency’s performance.

Strong Performance Seen across all Commodity Currencies

The commodity currencies continued to perform extraordinary well today. The Canadian dollar hit a fresh multi-decade high against the US dollar after Canadian Prime Minister said that it would be a “huge mistake” to interfere with the appreciation of the Canadian dollar. This clearly indicates that the government has no plans to intervene in the currency pair. In fact, parity is now the main target for USD/CAD traders and pretty soon we could actually be there. IVEY PMI, unemployment and trade are due for release next week, all of which are potentially market moving Canadian data. Australia reported very strong manufacturing PMI overnight, which is contributing to the overall strength in both the Aussie and Kiwi.

The central banks of both Australia and New Zealand have rate decisions due next week along with Australian unemployment and GDP

[شريف دعبس]

مزيد من التراجع بالبطالة في منطقة اليورو

بروكسيل، بلجيكا(CNN)-- انخفض معدل البطالة في منطقة اليورو في شهر أبريل/نيسان إلى 7.1 بالمائة مقارنة بنسبة 7.2 بالمائة في مارس/آذار، وفقا لأرقام تمّت مراجعتها، وأعلنتها وكالة الإحصاءات الأوروبية يوروستات.
ونقلت أسوشيتد برس عن الوكالة وقلها في بيان إنّ البطالة التي ظلت نسبتها على حالها في حدود 8 بالمائة في أبريل/نيسان، تشهد تراجعا مطردا منذ عامين.
وفي الاتحاد الأوروبي ذي الـ27 دولة، لاحظت الوكالة أنّ نسبة البطالة ظلت هي أيضا في حدود 7.1 بالمائة، مقابل 7.2 بالمائة في مارس/آذار.
وسجلت في هولندا أدنى نسبة بطالة حيث بقيت في حدود 3.3 بالمائة متبوعة بالدانمارك بنسبة 3.4 بالمائة.
كما بقيت في إيرلندا في حدود 4 بالمائة، فيما كانت أعلى نسبة في بولندا بـ11.2 بالمائة متبوعة بسلوفاكيا بنسبة 10.5 بالمائة.
وأحصى المكتب 16.7 مليون عاطل عن العمل في الاتحاد الأوروبي في أبريل/نيسان من ضمنهم 10.6 في منطقة اليورو مقابل 18.7 مليون في الفترة نفسها من العام الماضي.
وللمقارنة فإنّ نسبة البطالة في الولايات المتحدة في الشهر ذاته كانت في حدود 4.5 بالمائة مقابل 3.8 في اليابان.
وتضم منطقة اليورو 13 دولة هي فرنسا وألمانيا والنمسا وبلجيكا وإسبانيا وفنلندا واليونان وإيرلندا وإيطاليا واللكسمبورغ وهولندا والبرتغال وسلوفينيا.

[شريف دعبس]

تابع تحليل الدولار- الين



https://forum.arabictrader.com/showp...&postcount=224

[dr_mamy2006]

وهل هناك هبوط للدولار ين ولا سوف يستمر بالصعود
للاهمية عندى عقود بيع

[شريف دعبس]

وهل هناك هبوط للدولار ين ولا سوف يستمر بالصعود
للاهمية عندى عقود بيع

https://forum.arabictrader.com/showp...&postcount=224

[شريف دعبس]

ارتفاع عدد الوظائف في أمريكا ولكن البطالة على حالها

واشنطن، الولايات المتحدة(CNN)-- أظهرت آخر الإحصائيات الرسمية أنّ وتيرة خلق الوظائف في السوق الأمريكية تسير بنسق جيد حيث تمّ توفير 157 ألف وظيفة جديدة في مايو/أيار وهي النسبة الأعلى منذ مارس/آذار.
وقالت وزارة العمل الأمريكية في بيان الجمعة إنّ الاقتصاد الأمريكي وفّر 157 ألف وظيفة في مايو/ أيار مقارنة بـ80 ألفا في أبريل/نيسان.
وأضاف البيان أنّ معدل البطالة بقي على حاله في حدود 4.5 بالمائة من السكان القادرين على العمل.
ويعدّ الرقم جيدا لاسيما أنّ المحللين كانوا يتوقعون أن يوفر الاقتصاد 135 ألف وظيفة جديدة.
والارتفاع لا يعدّ مفاجئا مقارنة بأرقام شهر أبريل/نيسان الذي شهد بدوره ارتفاعا في الوظائف بصفة واضحة ومفاجئة.
وشهد شهر مارس/آذار 180 ألف وظيفة جديدة مقابل 113 ألفا تمّ تسجيلها في فبراير/شباط والتي تمّ اعتبارها، عالية بدورها.
والنتائج هي الأفضل التي يحققها الاقتصاد الأمريكي طيلة خمسة أشهر، وفقا للمحللين ومن المتوقع أن تنعكس بالإيجاب على الأسواق لاحقا.
وكان النمو في الوظائف وفرص العمل خلال شهر يناير/كانون الثاني الماضي قد تباطأ.
وارتفعت معدلات البطالة في الولايات المتحدة في الأشهر الماضية إلى 4.6 في المائة، أي بزيادة قدرها 0.1 في المائة.
يذكر أن تقريرا سابقا أشار إلى أن سوق العمل الأمريكية تعاني من نقص في الكفاءات وليس في الوظائف.
على صعيد آخر أظهرت أرقام مايو/أيار أنّ الأجر على الساعة ارتفع في الولايات المتحدة بمعدل ستة سنتات ليصل إلى 17.30 دولارا أي ما يمثل 0.3 بالمائة شهريا، وهو ما توقعه المحللون.
وعلى مستوى العام بلغت الزيادة 3.8 بالمائة بعد أن بلغت 4.3 بالمائة في ديسمبر/كانون الأول

[حسن السيد]

وهل هناك هبوط للدولار ين ولا سوف يستمر بالصعود
للاهمية عندى عقود بيع

للاسف الجدد على السوق ..... مازالو يعتقدون ان مستويات الدولار/ ين الحاليه مغريه للبيع
لاهداف كبيره
ولكن كما اشرنا منذ شهرين ومازلنا نقول الزوج سيصل الى مستويات لم يعاصرها العديد من الموجودين حاليا فى المنتدى
ولن تكون بسبب قوة الدولار لانه مازال ضعيفا برغم زوبعة البيانات الايجابيه المهدئه فقط الاسبوع الماضى
ولكن ستكون من تاثير ازواج اليورو ين والباوند ين عليه بطريقه مباشره مع صعود اليورو دولار مره اخرى الى مستويات قياسيه
بالتوفيق للجميع
مودتى
د/حسن السيد

[شريف دعبس]

للاسف الجدد على السوق ..... مازالو يعتقدون ان مستويات الدولار/ ين الحاليه مغريه للبيع
لاهداف كبيره
ولكن كما اشرنا منذ شهرين ومازلنا نقول الزوج سيصل الى مستويات لم يعاصرها العديد من الموجودين حاليا فى المنتدى
ولن تكون بسبب قوة الدولار لانه مازال ضعيفا برغم زوبعة البيانات الايجابيه المهدئه فقط الاسبوع الماضى
ولكن ستكون من تاثير ازواج اليورو ين والباوند ين عليه بطريقه مباشره مع صعود اليورو دولار مره اخرى الى مستويات قياسيه
بالتوفيق للجميع
مودتى
د/حسن السيد

اهلا بالدكتور الزمالكوى

المشكله هو ان البيع او الشراء بيكون على السعر مش المهم السعر كام المهم ايه الاسباب سواء البيع او الشراء مش علشان السعر مرتفع ابيع او رخيص اشترى المهم التحليل بيقول ايه
تحياتى

[شريف دعبس]

Weekly Technical Analysis

Spotlight: EURUSD & GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Euro formed a doji on the weekly chart while it did manage to take out for a brief time the 1.3410 support. Retesting the previous week high at 1.3522 and getting just a few pips of the 1.3365 support with the indicators in the overbought area on the weekly charts leaves room for another try to get bellow December's 3rd high of 1.3365 support level. Looking at the daily charts we can see that the high for the week was established on Tuesday and the low on the US news release on Friday afternoon, the rest of the week's days were pretty calm EurUsd trading between 1.3410 and 1.3470. With this in mind we will have to wait and see which of the two currencies has more strength depending on which side price breaks and gets out of the range mentioned. A break south towards December's 3rd support at 1.3365 will confirm the weekly downside bias, although we have some important support levels worth mentioning, closest is the 1.3300 level established on January 7th followed by February 27th high at 1.3260 both of which could send the pair back up. If on the other hand Euro manages to gather some strength and to reverse the midterm trend we might see a move above 1.3523 towards May 7th high of 1.3630 as next resistance before the YTD high of 1.3680.

Resistance Levels

• 1.4532 - March 2005 High
• 1.3668 - December 2004 High
• 1.3630 - May 7th High
• 1.3523 - April 16th Low
• 1.3459 - May 10th/11th Lows

Support Levels

• 1.3365 - December 3rd High
• 1.3300 - January 7th High
• 1.3260 - February 27th High

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GBPUSD

After last weeks outside bar this weeks price action formed an inside bar with price testing the 1.9900 resistance on Tuesday. 1.9750 proved its importance once again this week price bouncing of it twice on Wednesday and Thursday only to get very close to Sunday night opening quote in late Friday session. With those two levels in mind (the 1.9900 resistance and 1.9750 support) we will look forward to see where the pair might be headed in the next couple of days. A break above the 1.9900 level will open up the 2.00 round number as a bullish target and if price gets that high we might witness another push north toward the YTD high of 2.0133. Conversely if sterling loses its short term momentum the pair might slip lower than the 1.9750 level getting more close to May 21st high at 1.9670 and if this support zone doesn't hold we have to look at the .50 Fib of the December-April trading range for more support. As always we will continue to analyze price action in the following week to see if things clear up direction wise.

Resistance Levels

• 2.0200 - Round number
• 2.0133 - April 18th High
• 1.9840/70 - May 4th / December 1st 2006 High

Support Levels

• 1.9750/60 - retested level, May 11th low
• 1.9700 - May 18th Low
• 1.9670 - February 27th High
• 1.9550 - .50 Fib

[شريف دعبس]

USD/CHF - The Pair to Short-Term Range Trade

Trading Tip - Trading any of the majors this past week was a risky venture since most of them were perched on significant technical levels and event risk was high. Now that the week is over, the fundamental barrier to trading the pairs is gone; yet the levels on the chart are still in place. USDCHF has a particularly compelling chart set up. Resistance is very significant in its confluence of a high level moving average, Fib of a big wave and a long-term falling trendline. Spot needs to bounce modestly to trigger an entry, but it is necessary to preserve risk/reward - especially since a wide stop is vital to protecting against false breakouts. Taking a long position on the range is risky. Support is not solid and has only been test once. What’s more, between the big falling trend line and the recent rising channel, the node of resistance seems more established - and therefore has the greater probability of winning out on the medium-term direction of the pair. So, if conditions do not seem promising, do not take the risk on a long trade.

US - Fundamental risk on the US side will be quite meager this week, and the Trade Balance is the only event that is likely to make waves. The figure is anticipated to show a mild narrowing in the deficit, but there is a chance the balance will actually be released better-than-expected as a weak US dollar supports export growth. Factory orders may feel similar affects, with the index forecasted to gain once again in April, albeit at a far slower pace. Meanwhile, ISM Non-Manufacturing may edge back to 55.5 from 56.0, but with the services sector gauge still well above 50, the indicator will likely continue to reflect expansion in the sector.

Switzerland - Event risk out of Switzerland will be inordinately thin as well this week with only the Unemployment Rate scheduled to be released. Nevertheless, the reading could bring about a bit of volatility as the labor market is anticipated to tighten even further. Continued improvements in employment conditions have been a major contributor to consumption and domestic demand growth, keeping the economy on track to maintain the Swiss National Bank’s expansion expectations of 2.0 percent this year. Furthermore, an encouraging Unemployment Rate will ramp up expectations for a hike by the SNB on June 14th.



DailyFX

[شريف دعبس]

اليورو - دولار

صعود باذن الله

الاسباب فى التشارتات

تحياتى للجميع

سليل عائله دعبس

[شريف دعبس]

اليورو - دولار

صعود باذن الله

الاسباب فى التشارتات

تحياتى للجميع

سليل عائله دعبس

تم تحقيق الهدف الاول

تحياتى

[شريف دعبس]

Forex Weekly Review and Outlook

Attention Turning to Central Banks after Dollar Made No Progress

Dollar failed to ride on stronger than expected Non-Farm Payroll and ISM Manufacturing index and ended nearly flat against majors. Commodity currencies were the start performer last week with Canadian scoring another multi-decade high against dollar and commodity yen crosses making new highs. The Japanese yen was particularly pressured across the board but even in such case, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY were just slightly up as focus lied elsewhere. Markets were left wondering what would it take for the greenback to make some progress but with attention turning to four central banks meeting this week, including ECB, BoE, RBA and RBNZ, the markets could continue to frustrate dollar traders.


Dollar traders were disappointed after the highly anticipated events of last week triggered just some volatility but no break out. Just like the accompanying statement, there was nothing new from the minutes of the May 9 FOMC meeting where the Fed's view on growth and inflation were basically unchanged. Failure of core inflation to moderate remains the member's predominant concern. After all, even though the Fed will likely be on hold for a considerable period of time, there is little chance a a rate cut in the near future and that provided some support to the dollar.

Non-farm payroll rose more than expected by 157k in May, comparing to expectation of 130k and was an impressive rebound from Apr's downwardly revised 80k. Unemployment rate was steady at 4.5%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% mom and average weekly hours also rose 0.3% too. ISM manufacturing index beat expectation by rising to 55 comparing to consensus of 54. Chicago PMI also surprised on the upside by reaching 61.7 versus expectation of 54. These data are reconfirming the view that businesses are starting to regain some momentum in Q2, that would likely continue to the rest of the year even though growth may still be below potential for some time.

While the above data eased some concerns of the Fed on growth, the Apr PCE data provided more comfort to Fed members on inflation. PCE deflator slowed from 2.3% yoy to 2.2%. Most importantly, core PCE deflator, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, moderated further from 2.1% to 2.0% yoy, matching the 2% level that's widely regarded as the top of the Fed’s comfort zone for the first time in 13 months and being the lowest since Mar 06. Personal income unexpectedly dropped -0.1% in Apr even though consumption rose 0.5%. So after all, improving inflation could ease some of Fed's predominant concern and give them more room to shift focus to growth but improving economic health is also easing some of the need and urgency to cut rates. That left the Fed firmly in a wait-and-see position.

US Q1 GDP was revised lower than expected from 1.3% to 0.6%, versus consensus of 0.8%, primarily due to smaller inventory accumulation and greater imports. That was the lowest GDP growth in 4 years. Meanwhile, Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE deflator, rose at 2.2% yoy, same as previously estimated. Markets only had brief impact on these old data. Both Conference Board and University of Michigan consumer confidence were above expectation.

Data from Eurozone were solid. German CPI stayed at 1.9 % yoy and unemployment rate stayed at 9.2% in May. Eurozone CPI stayed at 1.9% yoy and unemployment rate dipped slightly to 7.1%. Manufacturing PMI in both Eurozone and Germany were solid at 55.0 and 56.1, though retreating slightly from Apr. Q1 GDP in Eurozone was revised slightly lower from 3.3% yoy to 3.0%. Eurozone M3 money supply growth finally moderated and slowed to 10.4% in Apr. ECB officials continued to sound hawkish and implied that the tightening is not over after the expected June hike this week.

Yen was supported by some risk aversion buying after at the start of the week and after a string of solid data. In particular, household spending rose strongly by 1.1% in Apr while unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%, 9 year low. Corporate Service Price index rose more than expected by 1.1%. Retail sales was up 0.4% mom. However, yen was again pressured after carry trade was back in play.

Gfk consumer confidence in UK improved from -6 to -2 in May. Nationwide house price slowed slightly to 0.5%. But Manufacturing PMI beat expectation by rising to 54.9. After all, the Sterling was relatively more resilient due to carry trade and speculation of a surprise from BoE this week.

The Swiss Franc received little support even though Q1 GDP grew more than expected by 2.4% yoy.

BoC kept rate unchanged at 4.25% as widely expected. In the press release, BoC made specific mention of the continued high inflation say "both total CPI inflation, at 2.2 per cent, and core inflation, at 2.5 per cent, were above expectations," and would average 2.2% for Q2. Growth is expected to be 3.5% this year, " a full percentage point higher than was estimated in the MPR." With increased risk that future inflation will persist above the 2% target, "some increase in the target for the overnight rate may be required in the near term to bring inflation back to the target.". This is taken to be a step to set the stage for a July hike. Also, Q1 GDP rose stronger than expected at an annualized qoq rate of 3.7% versus expectation of 3.5%, comparing to prior upwardly revised 1.5%. The Lonnie continued recent strength and surged to another multi decade high against dollar.

The Aussie was supported by carry trade despite disappointing retail sales while the Kiwi was boosted by speculation of a rate hike from RBNZ this week

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The Week Ahead

Central bank meetings will be the main focus this week. ECB is widely expected to raise rate by 25bps after Trichet's magical word "vigilance" last month. But as usual, Trichet may not reveal much about future monetary policy changes though his press conference will still be closely watched. BoE is generally expected to keep rates unchanged at 5.5% this week. But the more hawkish than expected BoE minutes, with 9-0 vote and the discussion of the possibility of a 50 bps hike in May left part of the market expecting another hike in June. The BoE could yet give the markets another surprise. RBA is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 6.25%. Meanwhile opinion is also divided on whether RBNZ will raise rate this week though more economists expect no change.

On the data front, factory orders, ISM non-manufacturing index Q1 labor cost revision whole sale inventory and trade balance will be featured in the US. PPI and Services PMI will be released in the Eurozone together with German trade balance, factory orders and industrial production. Q1 capital spending in Japan will be closely watched with Apr machine tools orders and May economic watch DI featured too. UK data will include Services PMI and industrial/manufacturing productions.

In addition to RBA and RBNZ rate announcements, commodity currencies traders will have special focus on Q1 GDP from Australia as well as employment report and trade balance from Canada

[شريف دعبس]

Forex Mid-Day Technical Report

Dollar Tumbles, Correction Done

Dollar is seen weaker against Euro earlier today after Eurozone PPI came in stronger than expected but the weakness spreads across the board when markets enter into the US session. Lower than expected factory orders in Apr is giving little help to the greenback. The lack of sustainable reactions to last week's positive data is a cause in triggering traders to ligtening dollar positions. On the other hand, overnight's 7.7% fall in the Chinese stock market is seen as another reason as US stocks followed to open lower and in turn triggered some withdrawal from dollar based assets. But based on the relatively steadiness in yen crosses, it's a little doubtful.

Anyway, technically speaking, today's fall in dollar gives out a serious alert that the correction started in Apr has probably ended, with GBP/USD led the markets with a relatively stronger rebound last week and USD/JPY could have also topped in short term. EUR/USD was support above an important near term support while USD/CHF rally was limited by a trend line resistance. Focus will turn to ISM Services tomorrow but it will really take a super strong reading to give dollar a boost based on current sentiments