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Forex Mid-Day Technical Report

Dollar Extends Rally on Jobless Claims

Dollar is boosted higher in early US session after initial jobless claims defied expectation again and fell to a four month low of 293k from revised 298k. This is the second consecutive months that initial claims stays below 300k and suggests that job markets in US is still solid. In turn, resilient job market could probably counter that negative effect of slowdown of housing sector on consumer spending. Leading indicators, Philly Fed index will be featured next while Bernanke is slated to talk about the subprime market later this morning.

Canadian dollar was lifted earlier by stronger than expected consumer inflation data which showed headline CPI rising 0.4% mom, 2.2% yoy in Apr comparing to expectation of 0.3%, 2.1%. Core CPI also beats consensus by rising 0.2% mom, 2.5% yoy. USD/CAD attempted to take out 1.1 level again but was contained by dollar's strength. The steady rise in core inflation should concern the BoC as sources of inflation continue to build and BoC may consider to restart the tightening cycle again if the trend persists.

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen remains pressured after disappointing GDP growth in Q1 and BoJ's keeping rate on hold. Yet, weakness in yen is more apparent against dollar while EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are still struggling near recent high. Note that these yen crosses could be dragged down in case there is further dollar buying that prompted additional pressure on the European majors

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EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3477; (P) 1.3542; (R1) 1.3581;

EUR/USD's fall from 1.3609 extends further to as low as 1.3480 in early US session. At this point, further decline is expected to follow as long as 1.3544 resistance holds and retest of 1.3461 low should be seen. As discussed before, with 1.3627 resistance and remains and rising channel support turned resistance remain intact, the original case still holds. That is, whole rally from 1.2865 has likely completed at 1.3681 after breaking through short term channel support. Below 1.3461 will now encourage further decline towards 1.3406/10 support zone (with 55 days EMA at 1.3434 now).

On the upside, touching of 1.3544 will turn intraday outlook consolidative but break of 1.3627 resistance is needed to turn focus back to the upside. Otherwise, further weakness should be seen after brief consolidation.

In the bigger picture, with 1.3668 target met, risk of medium term reversal is also increasing. As discussed before, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend from 1.1639. With such interpretation we'd expect risk of medium term reversal to increase significantly as EUR/USD enter into resistance zone between 1.3668 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Hence, focus is now on reversal signals.

On the downside, break of the short term rising channel support is already a warning that the rise from 1.2865 has completed. Decisive break of 1.3406/10 support, with 55 days EMA (now at 1.3434) taken out too, will confirm such case. More importantly, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI, this will be the first warning that the whole rally from 1.2483 has also completed, and, so is the whole up trend from 1.1639. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel support -now at 1.3028

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GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9726; (P) 1.9799; (R1) 1.9842;

Cable's recovery from 1.9744 was limited at 1.9874, by 4 hours 55 EMA and subsequent fall has now pushed cable below prior low of 1.9744, indicating that decline from 2.0132 has resumed. At this point, intraday bias will stay on the downside as long as 1.9793 resistance holds. As discussed before, sustained trading below 1.9766/75 support (38.2% retracement of 1.9183 to 2.0132 at 1.9769, with 55 days EMA at 1.9762) will encourage deeper decline towards next important support zone of medium term rising channel support (now at 1.9544) and 1.9545 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.9183 to 2.0132 at 1.9546).

On the upside, touching of 1.9793 will turn intraday outlook consolidative but a break above 1.9874 resistance is needed to signal a short term low is formed. Otherwise, another fall is still expected after brief consolidation.

In the bigger picture, we'd like to maintain that risk of medium term reversal remains high and is increasing. Firstly, the whole up trend from 1.7047 is not clearly impulsive. One interpretation is that rally from 1.7047 ended with three waves up to 1.9024. Subsequent correction ended at 1.8090. Rally from 1.8090 has already met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.7047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067. Secondly, regardless of the larger trend, rise from 1.8090 can be interpreted as being a five wave sequence with first wave ended at 1.9142, second at 1.8517, third at 1.9913 and fourth at 1.9183. The channeling property supports this interpretation too. In such case, the fifth wave rally from 1.9183 has also met target of 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9183 at 2.0046 too. With bearish divergence condition remains in weekly RSI and Daily MACD and key 2.0106 resistance (92 high) not decisively taken out, cable could be forming a top at the current price level.

On the downside, firm break of the medium term rising channel support (now at 1.9544) will indicate that the whole rally from 1.8090 has completed and add much credence to the case that an important medium term top is already in place and put focus to 1.9183 low. However, sustained trading above mentioned 2.0106 resistance will dampen the above interpretation and indicates that underlying bullishness in cable is much stronger then we thought. Further medium term rally should then be seen towards 61.8% projection of 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.0677

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USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2165; (P) 1.2204; (R1) 1.2272;

USD/CHF's rally extends strongly to as high as 1.2276 so far as is set to test mentioned 1.2282 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2282). As discussed before, sustained break of 1.2282 cluster resistance will indicate that the fall from 1.2571 has completed after meeting 1.2026 fibo support (78.6% retracement of 1.1878 to 1.2571). In such case, further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2350 first.

On the downside, touching of 1.2194 support will turn intraday outlook consolidative first but break of 1.2124 support is needed to indicate rise from 1.1993 has completed. Otherwise, further rally is still in favor.

In the bigger picture, firstly, note that weekly MACD remains below signal line and USD/CHF is still trading comfortably below 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.2358), medium term risk remains on the downside and the current rebound from 1.1993 could merely be part of a sideway consolidation to the whole fall from 1.2571. The original case is still in favor as long as 1.2282 cluster resistance holds. That is the whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in progress with the first move from 1.3283 finished with three waves down to 1.1919. Subsequent rebound to 1.2768 was the interim correction and price actions from there represent resumption of such down trend. Break of 1.1993 low will add more credence to this case and bring further decline to 1.1878 low.

However, strong break of 1.2282 cluster resistance will dampen this view and indicate that the fall from 1.2571 has completed after meeting 1.2026 fibo support (78.6% retracement of 1.1878 to 1.2571). Another rise could then be seen to retest this high and then the upper end of the range at 1.2768

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USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.36; (P) 120.59; (R1) 121.02; More

USD/JPY remains strong and has risen to as high as 121.27 so far. With 78.6% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13 at 120.66 and trend line resistance taken out, further rise is now expected to be seen to retest 122.17 high. Touching of 120.67 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first. But a break of 119.43 support is needed to signal rally from 115.13 low has completed. Otherwise, further rise is still in favor.

In the bigger picture, previous break of medium term rising channel support (108.99, 114.41, 117.87) indicates the whole medium term rally from 108.99 has completed at 122.17. However, firm break of falling trend line resistance (122.05 to 121.61) and sustained trading above 119.48 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13) indicates price actions from 122.17 is developing into sideway consolidation to rise from 108.99 only, instead of a sharp reversal. Hence, a retest of 122.17 high could be seen. But still, firm break above this resistance is needed to confirm medium term rally from 108.99 has resumed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at best and risk of another fall remains.

On the downside, a firm break below 119.43 support will indicate that rebound from 115.13 has completed and deeper fall could then be seen to retest this low. However, even in such case, downside will likely be contained above 114.02/41 support zone (61.8% retracement of 108.99 to 122.17 at 114.02) and complete the sideway consolidation that started at 122.17

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EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.95; (P) 163.41; (R1) 163.73;

EUR/JPY's consolidation from 163.89 continues as it hovers around prior high of 163.59. At this point, short term bias remains on the upside with 162.64 support remains intact. Further rally could still be seen towards 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64. However, we'd maintain that risk of a short term reversal remains high after previous break of the short term rising channel, with bearish divergence condition staying in 4 hours MACD and RSI and with daily MACD remains below signal line. Below 162.64 will suggest that EUR/JPY has failed 163.59 resistance and deeper decline should then be seen towards 161.05 support and then 159.60 support (with 55 days EMA at 160.18).

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY's previous break above medium term rising channel resistance suggests that strength of the rally from 150.75 could be much stronger than we thought. But still, interpretation of rally from 130.60 remains unchanged. First wave up ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure, targeting 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 and could terminate there.

On the downside, break of the short term channel support indicates that rise from 150.75 has completed and another fall could still be seen towards 159.60 support. Rise from 150.75 will still likely to resume as long as this support holds. However, sustained trading below 159.60, with 55 days EMA taken out too, will warn that prior break of medium term rising channel resistance was merely a throw-over. Also, this will give a serious warning signal that the whole rise rise from 130.60 has ended. EUR/JPY should set to channel the medium channel support (now at 153.32) in such case

[أبو_روان]

لااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااه
أنت حكايتك حكاية , وموضوعك كبييييييييير وخطييييييييييييييير ,,, محتاج قعدة مخمخة وساندوتشات لحمة(على رأي أبو حنفي)
أنت طلعت حدوتة يا سليل الدعابسة ,,,,,,,,(أنت شكلك من بلبيس!!!! صح؟؟؟؟)
على فكرة أنا أول مرة أشوف موضوعك ده والله , مع إنك فاتحه من أكتر من شهر (سبحان الله) ,,, من كتر مشغولياتي,,!!!! وأنت لمست الوتر الحساس عندي (التحليل الفني الكلاسيكي (حبيب القلب))
وحيث كذا ,,,, قررت أني أشاركك في هذا المجهود الكبير وأخرب عليك بتحليلاتي المتواضعة
تحياتي ليك يا بو دعبس

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لااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااه
أنت حكايتك حكاية , وموضوعك كبييييييييير وخطييييييييييييييير ,,, محتاج قعدة مخمخة وساندوتشات لحمة(على رأي أبو حنفي)
أنت طلعت حدوتة يا سليل الدعابسة ,,,,,,,,(أنت شكلك من بلبيس!!!! صح؟؟؟؟)
على فكرة أنا أول مرة أشوف موضوعك ده والله , مع إنك فاتحه من أكتر من شهر (سبحان الله) ,,, من كتر مشغولياتي,,!!!! وأنت لمست الوتر الحساس عندي (التحليل الفني الكلاسيكي (حبيب القلب))
وحيث كذا ,,,, قررت أني أشاركك في هذا المجهود الكبير وأخرب عليك بتحليلاتي المتواضعة
تحياتي ليك يا بو دعبس

ده انت الى حكايه يا ابى روان
و انا من القاهره و لو عاوز اكون من بلبيس اجدع ناس
التحليل الكلاسيكى يريح شويه من اعصابكى المتوتريكى
و انت تشرف و تنور الموضوع بتحليلاتك الفذه
و انا فى انتظارك
تحياتى ليك مع اطيب الامانى بالتوفيق

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تحليل الدولار اندكس
هل الدولار مقبل على موجه بيع قويه مره اخر
تحليلى الفنى الشخصى المتواضع يؤيد هذا
تحياتى للجميع
سليل عائله دعبس

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Yen Turns; Pound Hammered on Negative Retail Data No More Hikes in Sight

• Japanese Yen: PBOC widens yuan band
• Euro: IT Industrial data surprisingly spry
• Pound: UK Retail flops badly
• US Dollar: U if M on tap

Yen Turns; Pound Hammered on Negative Retail Data - No More Hikes in Sight?

UK retail sales unexpectedly fell -0.1% vs. 0.6% anticipated and dragged the pound down to 1.9710 in early London trade as traders started to adjust to the notion that BoE may remain stationary on the interest rate front for far longer than most market analysts originally thought. The UK rate curve continues to price in at least 2 more rate hikes before the year end, which would take sterling short term rates to 6.0%. However, the impact of BoE's restrictive monetary policy is clearly being felt by the UK consumer and those hawkish rate assumptions are now in jeopardy.

The recent increase in rates to 5.5% along with astronomical cost of UK gasoline prices which now stand above $5.50/gallon have combined to weigh heavily on the UK consumer. Despite the strong UK employment figures reported yesterday, the latest data from the PPI and the CPI indexes suggests that both producers and retailers are having a difficult time raising prices. This dynamic should provide the BoE with more time to contemplate additional increases tempering some of the more optimistic scenarios vis a vis UK rates. Therefore, unless the market continues to see unbridled increases in UK housing data next week further pound strength may be hard to come by.

As we were about to go to print, news hit the wires that PBOC will widen the yuan/dollar trading band from 0.3% to 0.5% and yen immediately fell through the 121.00 barrier but bounced back within seconds. The move while not dramatic is a clear a gesture by the Chinese authorities signaling their willingness to move the yuan exchange rates closer to a free-floating model. The Chinese authorities now find themselves combating the growing asset bubbles in the Shanghai equity market and have become quite concerned about the possible fallout should it collapse. This policy change is just the latest attempt by Chinese authorities to reign in speculative sentiment in the country by slowing inflationary pressures. In the meantime the announcement should provide a short term boost for the yen and serves as just the kind of exogenous news event that we warned about earlier this week when the currency was being sold relentlessly by the carry traders. While it may be too soon to call a near term peak in USDJPY, tonight's news certainly provides yen bears with reason for pause as the unit may now find a bid despite the woeful Japanese fundamentals.

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Forex Mid-Day Technical Report

Yen Boosted by PBoC, CAD Breached 30 Yr High

The Japanese yen staged a strong rebound today after a couple of announcements from PBoC. Firstly, the Chinese central bank widened the yuan trading band so that yuan will be allowed to move as much as 0.5% either side of a daily fixing rate against the dollar, up from 0.3%. This means that the yuan is now allowed to appreciate faster. Secondly, benchmark lending rate is raised by 18bps from 6.39% to 6.57% to cool growth while one year deposit rate is raised by 27bps from 2.79% to 3.06%. The 6.57% lending rate is the highest in more than 8 years and this is the first time since 93 that China raised deposit rates more than lending rates. Thirdly, reserve ratio was raised from 11% to 11.5%, which is the fifth increase this year. While faster appreciation of yuan is usually yen positive, PBoC's act to cool the stock market has triggered further risk aversion carry trade unwinding in the Japanese yen on fear that the Chinese stock market will open with a selloff next week.

Canadian dollar's rally extends further today after stronger than expected retail sales data which saw headline retail sales rising 1.9% mom in Mar, much better than expectation of 0.8%. Meanwhile, ex-auto sales rose 1.1% mom, inline with forecasts. USD/CAD dipped further to as low as 1.0901, break through prior 30 years low of 1.0930. On the other hand, Sterling was not helped a bit by disappointing retail sales which dropped -0.1% mom in Apr, dragging yoy rate to 4.2%.

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EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3464; (P) 1.3504; (R1) 1.3531;

EUR/USD dips further lower to 1.3464 and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as EUR/USD stays below 1.3511 minor resistance. Further decline should be seen to retest 1.3461 low. As discussed before, with 1.3627 resistance and remains and rising channel support turned resistance remain intact, the original case still holds. That is, whole rally from 1.2865 has likely completed at 1.3681 after breaking through short term channel support. Below 1.3461 will now encourage further decline towards 1.3406/10 support zone (with 55 days EMA at 1.3434 now).

On the upside, touching of 1.3511 will turn intraday outlook consolidative but break of 1.3609 resistance is needed to turn focus back to the upside. Otherwise, further weakness should be seen after brief consolidation.

In the bigger picture, with 1.3668 target met, risk of medium term reversal is also increasing. As discussed before, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend from 1.1639. With such interpretation we'd expect risk of medium term reversal to increase significantly as EUR/USD enter into resistance zone between 1.3668 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Hence, focus is now on reversal signals.

On the downside, break of the short term rising channel support is already a warning that the rise from 1.2865 has completed. Decisive break of 1.3406/10 support, with 55 days EMA (now at 1.3434) taken out too, will confirm such case. More importantly, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI, this will be the first warning that the whole rally from 1.2483 has also completed, and, so is the whole up trend from 1.1639. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel support -now at 1.3028

[شريف دعبس]

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9720; (P) 1.9755; (R1) 1.9780;

Cable weakens further to as low as 1.9700 and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 1.9778 minor resistance holds. Further decline is still expected to follow towards next important support zone of medium term rising channel support (now at 1.9544) and 1.9545 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.9183 to 2.0132 at 1.9546). On the upside, touching of 1.9778 will turn intraday outlook consolidative but a break above 1.9874 resistance is needed to signal a short term low is formed. Otherwise, another fall is still expected after brief consolidation.

In the bigger picture, we'd like to maintain that risk of medium term reversal remains high and is increasing. Firstly, the whole up trend from 1.7047 is not clearly impulsive. One interpretation is that rally from 1.7047 ended with three waves up to 1.9024. Subsequent correction ended at 1.8090. Rally from 1.8090 has already met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.7047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067. Secondly, regardless of the larger trend, rise from 1.8090 can be interpreted as being a five wave sequence with first wave ended at 1.9142, second at 1.8517, third at 1.9913 and fourth at 1.9183. The channeling property supports this interpretation too. In such case, the fifth wave rally from 1.9183 has also met target of 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9183 at 2.0046 too. With bearish divergence condition remains in weekly RSI and Daily MACD and key 2.0106 resistance (92 high) not decisively taken out, cable could be forming a top at the current price level.

On the downside, firm break of the medium term rising channel support (now at 1.9544) will indicate that the whole rally from 1.8090 has completed and add much credence to the case that an important medium term top is already in place and put focus to 1.9183 low. However, sustained trading above mentioned 2.0106 resistance will dampen the above interpretation and indicates that underlying bullishness in cable is much stronger then we thought. Further medium term rally should then be seen towards 61.8% projection of 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.0677

[شريف دعبس]

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2215; (P) 1.2248; (R1) 1.2303;

USD/CHF's sideway consolidation continues and is still struggling below mentioned 1.2282 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2282). Nevertheless, further rally is still in favor as long as 1.2194 support holds. Sustained break of 1.2282 cluster resistance will indicate that the fall from 1.2571 has completed after meeting 1.2026 fibo support (78.6% retracement of 1.1878 to 1.2571). In such case, further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2350 first.

On the downside, touching of 1.2194 support will indicate a short term top is possibly formed. But still, break of 1.2124 support is needed to indicate rise from 1.1993 has completed Otherwise, further rally is still in favor after brief consolidation. .

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF is now at a juncture. Strength of the current rise from 1.1993, with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and RSI suggest that the fall from 1.2571 has already completed at 1.1993. But firm break above 1.2282 cluster resistance is needed to confirm and bring retest of 1.2571 high. However, bounces off from 1.2282 cluster resistance will still keep USD/CHF below 55 weeks EMA, thus keeping medium term outlook mildly bearish. Below 1.2124 will indicate that rebound from 1.1993 is merely a correction to fall from 1.2571 and further weakness should then be seen to retest 1.1193 low