تحليل و توصيات

[za3eem]

أسعار النفط الخام الآجلة مستقرة حول مستويات 60.70$ للبرميل في التداولات الآسيوية اليوم بعد أن انخفضت يوم أمس بنسبة 4% متأثرة بالتقرير الأسبوعي لوكالة الطاقة الأمريكية

صدر اليوم التقرير الأسبوعي لوكالة الطاقة الأمريكية ليظهر تراجع في مخزونات النفط في الولايات المتحدة الأسبوع الماضي بقيمة 2.9 مليون برميل لتصل إلى 347.3 مليون برميل، بينما ارتفعت مخزونات وقود المحركات في الولايات المتحدة الأسبوع الماضي بقيمة 1.9 مليون برميل، في حين ارتفعت مخزونات المشتقات المقطرة في الولايات المتحدة الأسبوع الماضي بقيمة 3.7 مليون برميل.

تراجع مخزون النفط الخام بأفضل من التوقعات إلا أن ارتفاع مستويات المخزون من وقود المحركات يعكس تراجع مستويات الطلب و الاستهلاك، هذا بالإضافة لارتفاع مستويات مخزون المشتقات المقطرة ليسجل أعلى ارتفاع منذ عام 1987 الذي كان له أثر سلبي على أسعار النفط الخام.

صرح صندوق النقد الدولي يوم أمس بتوقعاته للنمو خلال عام 2010 حيث تحسنت توقعاته لتصل 2.5% مقارنة بالتوقعات السابقة بنسبة 1.9% و يتوقع بان يتعمق الركود الاقتصادي خلال هذا العام بنسبة 1.4% و هذا أقل ومن وتيرة التوقعات السابقة بنسبة 1.3%، و هذا كان له اثر على أسعار النفط الخام التي هبطت لتسجل مستويات منخفضة عند 60.00$ للبرميل.

يميل المستثمرين لشراء الدولار الأمريكي كونه العملة الاحتياطية الأولى عالميا مع تراجع مستويات الثقة بالأسواق، حيث يسيطر على الأسواق المالية بالوقت الراهن التشاؤم بعد تكهنات المستثمرين بأن الاقتصاد العالمي سيحتاج لمزيد من الوقت لاجتياز مرحلة الركود الاقتصادي خاصة بعد أن ارتفعت معدلات البطالة في الولايات المتحدة و أوروبا كنتيجة لاحقة لتعمق الركود الاقتصادي، وهذا بدوره أضعف الطلب على النفط الخام.

أنه من المبكر جدا الحديث عن الانتعاش الاقتصادي فلم تشهد الاقتصاديات العملاقة بعد أدلة واضحة و ملموسة على قرب الانتعاش، و هذا ما أكده اجتماع الدول الصناعية الثمانية يوم أمس حيث أكد من المبكر سحب خطط الانقاد التي قدمتها الحكومات سابقا.

أنني أريد التأكيد أن ما حدث بالأسواق في الفترة الماضية ما هو إلا انخفاض بوتيرة الانكماش، و هذا ما دعم أسعار النفط الخام لترتفع مسجلة 73.35$ للبرميل بعد أن هبطت ببداية العام الحالي حول مستويات 35$ للبرميل.

أن أسعار النفط الخام لا بد لها من الاستقرار ما بين مستويات 60 – 70$ للبرميل قبل أن تواصل الارتفاع، لتعكس استقرار الأوضاع الاقتصادية بعد ما قدمته الحكومات حول العالم من خطط انقاد لدعم مستويات الطلب و التخفيف من الآثار السلبية لتعمق الركود الاقتصادي العالمي الذي قلص الطلب على الذهب الأسود مع انكماش مستويات الإنتاج.

افتتحت عقود النفط الخام الآجلة تسليم آب اليوم عند مستويات 60.37$ للبرميل و سجلت العقود الأعلى عند 61.00$ للبرميل و الأدنى عند مستويات 60.30$ للبرميل و يتداول حاليا حول مستويات 61.00$للبرميل.

[za3eem]

09/07/2009 08:26
(CET | GMT+2)
LAST
Strategy 1
Entry
Target
Strategy 2
Stop/entry
Rev. target
%R/%R
5DCHG%
3rd sup
2nd sup
1st sup
Pivot
1st res
2nd res
3rd res
Currency - Majors
EUR/USD
1.3932
LONG
1.4105
1.3820
1.3776
1.2/0.8
0.7
1.3675
1.3780
1.3832
1.3885
1.3937
1.3990
1.4095
USD/JPY
93.27
Go Long>
94.90
96.45
Go Short<
92.37
91.52
1.6/0.9
2.9
87.04
90.12
91.51
93.20
94.59
96.28
99.36
GBP/USD
1.6123
Go Long>
1.6300
1.6564
Go Short<
1.5980
1.5635
1.6/2.2
1.8
1.5758
1.5912
1.5993
1.6066
1.6147
1.6220
1.6374
USD/CHF
1.0870
SHORT
1.0720
1.0960
1.1095
1.4/0.8
-0.4
1.0775
1.0841
1.0872
1.0907
1.0938
1.0973
1.1039
AUD/USD
0.7820
LONG
0.7990
0.7720
0.7650
2.2/1.3
1.6
0.7455
0.7629
0.7708
0.7803
0.7882
0.7977
0.8151
USD/CAD
1.1620
Go Long>
1.1730
1.1994
Go Short<
1.1540
1.1453
2.3/0.8
0.1
1.1389
1.1526
1.1601
1.1663
1.1738
1.1800
1.1937
Currency - Cross rates
EUR/JPY
129.93
LONG
134.55
128.00
126.65
3.6/1.5
3.6
119.17
124.27
126.62
129.37
131.72
134.47
139.57
EUR/GBP
0.8641
Go Long>
0.8685
0.8775
Go Short<
0.8580
0.8380
1/2.3
-1.1
0.8532
0.8587
0.8612
0.8642
0.8667
0.8697
0.8752
EUR/CHF
1.5144
SHORT
1.4875
1.5175
1.5240
1.8/0.2
0.3
1.5046
1.5094
1.5113
1.5142
1.5161
1.5190
1.5238
EUR/CAD
1.6189
SHORT
1.6035
1.6270
1.6388
0.9/0.5
0.8
1.5963
1.6079
1.6143
1.6195
1.6259
1.6311
1.6427
GBP/JPY
150.37
Go Long>
153.25
158.00
Go Short<
146.15
143.10
3.1/2.1
4.8
137.00
143.37
146.33
149.74
152.70
156.11
162.48
NZD/USD
0.6291
Go Long>
0.6400
0.6695
Go Short<
0.6195
0.5938
4.6/4.1
0.1
0.6023
0.6140
0.6200
0.6257
0.6317
0.6374
0.6491
Currency - Nordic
USD/DKK
5.3453
SHORT
5.2775
5.3850
5.4140
1.3/0.7
-0.7
5.2817
5.3226
5.3435
5.3635
5.3844
5.4044
5.4453
USD/SEK
7.9220
SHORT
7.8470
8.0185
8.1525
0.9/1.2
-2.1
7.7854
7.8778
7.9223
7.9702
8.0147
8.0626
8.1550
EUR/SEK
11.0370
Go Long>
11.1580
11.3360
Go Short<
10.9050
10.7400
1.6/1.5
-1.4
10.8853
10.9771
11.0188
11.0689
11.1106
11.1607
11.2525
USD/NOK
6.5216
Go Long>
6.6080
6.7160
Go Short<
6.4400
6.2330
1.6/3.2
-2.1
6.3916
6.4777
6.5214
6.5638
6.6075
6.6499
6.7360
EUR/NOK
9.0861
Go Long>
9.1490
9.2300
Go Short<
8.9500
8.8500
0.9/1.1
-1.4
8.9761
9.0429
9.0800
9.1097
9.1468
9.1765
9.2433
NOK/SEK
1.2147
LONG
1.2355
1.2050
1.1935
1.7/0.8
-0.1
1.1914
1.2034
1.2084
1.2154
1.2204
1.2274
1.2394
EUR/PLN
4.3999
Go Long>
4.4620
4.5145
Go Short<
4.3610
4.2515
1.2/2.5
-1.0
4.3328
4.3767
4.4021
4.4206
4.4460
4.4645
4.5084
EUR/HUF
277.08
Go Long>
279.50
283.00
Go Short<
275.00
271.62
1.3/1.2
-2.6
269.13
273.44
276.02
277.75
280.33
282.06
286.37
EUR/CZK
26.027
Go Long>
26.150
26.540
Go Short<
25.810
25.645
1.5/0.6
-0.4
25.486
25.754
25.897
26.022
26.165
26.290
26.558
EUR/RON
4.2162
LONG
4.2400
4.1990
4.1784
0.6/0.4
-0.1
4.1800
4.1970
4.2060
4.2140
4.2230
4.2310
4.2480
EUR/TRY
2.1641
Go Long>
2.1765
2.1983
Go Short<
2.1490
2.1020
1/2.2
-0.5
2.1295
2.1476
2.1579
2.1657
2.1760
2.1838
2.2019
USD/ZAR
8.1708
Go Long>
8.2410
8.3600
Go Short<
7.9280
7.6725
1.4/3.2
-3.9
7.8029
7.9863
8.0994
8.1697
8.2828
8.3531
8.5365
USD/RUB
31.8813
LONG
32.4300
31.5500
31.2110
1.7/1
-2.8
31.0641
31.4260
31.6599
31.7879
32.0218
32.1498
32.5117
Dollar Index
Sep09
80.650
SHORT
77.710
81.166
81.970
3.6/0.6
1.1
80.265
80.615
80.810
80.965
81.160
81.315
81.665
FIXED INCOME
Bund (10yr)
Sep09
122.21
LONG
123.00
121.50
119.60
0.6/0.6
1.0
120.98
121.58
121.87
122.18
122.47
122.78
123.38
BOBL (5yr
Sep09
116.32
LONG
116.75
115.95
115.43
0.4/0.3
0.7
115.700
116.000
116.140
116.300
116.440
116.600
116.900
Schatz (2yr)
Sep09
108.275
LONG
108.40
108.14
107.28
0.1/0.1
0.3
108.082
108.177
108.223
108.272
108.318
108.367
108.462
T-Bonds (30 Yr)
Sep09
120 21/32
Go long>
121 11/32
123 18/32
Go Short<
119 12/32
117 9/32
1.8/1.8
2.1
116 24/32
118 23/32
120
120 22/32
121 30/32
122 20/32
124 19/32
T-Notes (10 Yr)
Sep09
118 9/32
Go long>
118 24/32
119 31/32
Go Short<
117 8/32
115 10/32
1/1.7
1.8
115 11/32
116 25/32
117 22/32
118 7/32
119 4/32
119 21/32
121 3/32
Euribor 3 mth
Dec09
98.94
LONG
99.050
98.835
98.520
0.1/0.1
0.1
98.882
98.912
98.923
98.942
98.953
98.972
99.002
YIELD
U.S. 10 Yr SWAP
3.497
Go Long>
3.760
4.045
Go Short<
3.436
3.180
7.6/7.5
-6.2
3.079
3.301
3.387
3.522
3.608
3.744
3.965
U.S. 5 Yr SWAP
2.673
Go Long>
2.850
3.120
Go Short<
2.612
2.400
9.5/8.1
-6.1
2.342
2.510
2.576
2.678
2.744
2.847
3.015
German 10 Yr SWAP
3.552
SHORT
3.466
3.588
3.675
2.4/1
-0.9
3.416
3.481
3.503
3.546
3.568
3.611
3.676
German 5 Yr SWAP
2.770
SHORT
2.668
2.803
2.907
3.7/1.2
-1.8
2.634
2.693
2.718
2.752
2.777
2.811
2.870
INDEX FUTURES
S&P500
Sep09
879.2
Go Long>
898
956
Go Short<
865
840
6.5/2.9
-4.6
839
856
865
874
883
892
910
Nasdaq
Sep09
1412.75
Go Long>
1555
1560
Go Short<
1391
1343
0.3/3.5
-4.6
1357
1381
1394
1405
1418
1429
1453
DAX
Sep09
4616
Go Long>
4706
4937
Go Short<
4528
4300
4.9/5
-6.7
4425
4505
4535
4584
4615
4664
4743
FTSE
Sep09
4101.5
Go Long>
4211
4507
Go Short<
4083
3975
7/2.6
-4.5
3959
4038
4070
4116
4148
4195
4273
CAC40
Jul09
3020
Go Long>
3114
3400
Go Short<
2940
2847
9.2/3.2
-6.4
2897
2956
2983
3016
3042
3075
3135
STOXX 50
Sep09
2304
Go Long>
2381
2551
Go Short<
2265
2190
7.1/3.3
-6.6
2196
2243
2262
2290
2309
2337
2384
STOCK INDEX
Dow Jones Indu
8178.41
Go Long>
8581
8878
Go Short<
8087
7939
3.5/1.8
-3.2
7897
8029
8104
8162
8236
8294
8426
Nasdaq Comp
1747.17
Go Long>
1824
1906
Go Short<
1725
1678
4.5/2.7
-4.8
1683
1713
1730
1744
1761
1775
1805
Nikkei 225
9291
Go Long>
9648
10170
Go Short<
9231
8983
5.4/2.7
-5.5
9163
9313
9367
9462
9516
9611
9761
COMMODITIES
.
Crude Light
Aug09
60.82
Go Long>
62.70
66.28
Go Short<
60.00
56.15
5.7/6.4
-12.3
55.6
58.27
59.2
60.94
61.87
63.61
66.28
ICE Brent C
Aug09
61.08
Go Long>
63.15
67.60
Go Short<
60.29
58.55
7/2.9
-8.4
55.63
58.46
59.45
61.29
62.28
64.12
66.95
RBOB Gasoline
Aug09
165.3
Go Long>
176.78
200.00
Go Short<
162.89
156.56
13.1/3.9
-11.2
147.88
156.98
160.16
166.08
169.26
175.18
184.28
GOLD
Aug09
912.9
Go Long>
932.7
968.0
Go Short<
905.0
878.1
3.8/3
-3.2
871.13
892.23
900.76
913.33
921.86
934.43
955.53
VIX
31.3
Go Long>
33.06
36.14
Go Short<
28.85
23.04
9.3/20.1
18.8
26.3533
28.9733
30.1366
31.5933
32.7566
34.2133
36.8333
CRB
231.21
SHORT
224.51
231.25
240.00
2.9/0
-7.5
222.03
227.54
229.38
233.05
234.89
238.56
244.07

[za3eem]

Silver's fall is still in progress and reaches as low as 12.55 so far today. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside and further decline should now be seen to 11.725 support next. On the upside, above 12.95 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring consolidation. But recovery should be limited by 14.338 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, whole rise from 8.4 should have completed with three waves up to 16.25, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. The corrective structure indicates that it's merely part of the whole down trend from 21.44. Hence deeper decline should be seen to get Silver through next key support of 11.725 with much possibility to have at least a retest of 8.4 low. On the upside, break of 14.735/15.54 resistance zone is now needed to revive the case that rise from 8.4 is still in progress. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain bearish.
Comex Silver Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Comex Silver Continuous Contract Daily Chart

[za3eem]

EUR

The pre-planned break-out variant for buyers has been implemented with overlap of minimal anticipated target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked break of key resistance range levels by relative buying activity rise, considering the chose strategy gives grounds in favor of buying priorities for planning of trading operations for today. Hence and considering current bearish cycle of indicator trend, we can assume probability of test of close 1,3940/60 support level, where it is recommended to evaluate the development of the activity of both parties in accordance with the charts of a shorter time interval. As for short-term buying positions on condition of the formation of topping signals the targets will be 1,4000/20, 1,4060/80 and (or) further break-out variant up to 1,4120/40, 1,4180/1,4200. The alternative for sales will be below 1,3900 with the targets of 1,3820/40, 1,3740/60.




CHF

The pre-planned break-out variant for sales has been implemented but with damage to several points in achievement of minimal anticipated target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked activity parity of both parties as a result of previous trading day, does not clarify the choice of planning priorities for today. Therefore, considering assumed probable rate range movement and sign of bullish development incompleteness, we can assume probable rate return to borders of Ichimoku cloud to 1,0870/90 levels, where it is recommended to evaluate the development of the activity of both parties in accordance with the charts of a shorter time interval. As for short-term sales on condition of the formation of topping signals the targets will be 1,0820/30, 1,0740/60, 1,0700/20 and (or) further break-out variant up to до 1,0640/60, 1,0580/1,0600. The alternative for buyers will be above 1,0960 with the targets of 1,1000/20, 1,1060/80, 1,1140/60.




GBP

The pre-planned break-out variant for buyers has been implemented with achievement of minimal anticipated target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked relatively high level of bullish activity, gives grounds favoring buying choice for planning of trading operations for today. Hence and considering current bearish activity cycle, we can assume probability of rate correction within borders of Ichimoku cloud with rate return to 1,6220/40 support levels, where it is recommended to evaluate the development of the activity of both parties in accordance with the charts of a shorter time interval. As for short-term buying positions on condition of the formation of topping signals the targets will be 1,6300/20, 1,6380/1,6420 and (or) further break-out variant up to до 1,6460/80, 1,6520/40, 1,6600/40. The alternative for sales will be below 1,6100 with the targets of 1,6020/40, 1,5960/80.




JPY

The estimated test of key resistance range levels for implementation of pre-planned short positions has not completely been confirmed and at this point, considering fall of both party activity and preservation of bearish party priority, earlier chosen plans for trading remain practically unchanged. Therefore, we can assume probability of another test of 93,40/60 resistance range levels, where it is recommended to evaluate the development of the activity of both parties in accordance with the charts of a shorter time interval. As for short-term sales on condition of the formation of topping signals the targets will be 92,60/80, 92,00/20, 91,60/80 and (or) further break-out variant up to 91,00/20, 90,40/60, 89,80/90,00. The alternative for buyers will be above 94,40 with the targets of 94,80/95,00, 95,60/80.

[za3eem]

EUR

Comment: Still consolidating in a small rather nasty ‘triangle’ as the lower edge of the daily Ichimoku ‘cloud’ limits the downside for the moment. One-month implied volatility is understandably running at half of last year’s peak. Little to get excited about today.
Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny longs at 1.3985/1.3950; stop well below 1.3800. Short term target 1.4050.


EUR/JPY

Comment: Consolidating above 126.00 which is the middle of this year’s broad trading band with fairly big intra-day moves, the way prices bounce from the 128.00 area looking slightly suspect. Implied volatility should move a lot higher.
Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 130.40; stop well above 132.00. Short term target 128.50/128.00.


GBP

Comment: Yesterday’s ‘hammer’ candle ahead of the top of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and the bottom of the ‘triangle’ is interesting and might add a little bullish momentum – much-needed as this has been dropping very steadily for the last month. Be careful and expect volatility to increase significantly from the levels seen in the last three months.
Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny longs at 1.6250, adding to 1.6100; stop below 1.5980. First target 1.6300, then 1.6500.


JPY

Comment: Almost too good to be true as for a third time the US dollar bounces strongly from the 91.80/91.73 area to form a ‘spike low’. This has eased the oversold situation but momentum is still decidedly bearish. One-month at-the-money implied volatility looks set to increase significantly over the next three to six weeks, with a break above 16.00% setting the ball rolling.
Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 93.20; stop well above 93.60. Cover ahead of 91.70 but be ready to re-sell below 91.50 for 90.00, then lower still.

[za3eem]

As you know my working count suggests that the fall started from 1.4339 (3 June) is wave 4 of a terminal impulse (ending diagonal). My wave count for it is presented on the chart. When the triangle in the position of wave B of 4 is over, I would expect a sharp fall in wave C with minimum target 1.3738 and most likely target 1.3500. A confirmation for this idea will be below 1.3833. A key resistance is 1.4200. With an eye on my bearish expectations I stay on the short position opened last week.
Trading strategy: 03:34 EST; 08:34 GMT
Short position from 1.3999, stop loss - 1.4205, target – open

[za3eem]

EUR/USD - Euro Dollar

1,3995. EUR USD moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. ForexTrend daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bullish pressure on EUR USD. The price should continue to move in Bollinger bands.
Resistances
1,4010 - 1,4075
Supports
1,3960 - 1,3880


GBP/USD - British Pound Dollar

1,6267. GBP USD is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. GBP USD moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility is high. ForexTrend daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. The price should continue to move in 1,5980 / 1,6380 range.
Resistances
1,6295 - 1,6380
Supports
1,6160 - 1,5980


USD/CHF - Dollar Swiss Franc

1,0827. USD CHF moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility is low. ForexTrend daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bearish configuration. 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bearish pressure on USD CHF. The price should continue to move in 1,0750 / 1,0925 range.
Resistances
1,0850 - 1,0925
Supports
1,0810 - 1,0750


USD/CAD - US Dollar Canadian Dollar

1,1508. USD CAD broke the downtrend to begin a bullish movement. The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are tightened. ForexTrend 1H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bearish configuration. The price should find a support above 1,1480 (28 pips). The consolidation should continue. If the support breaks then the target will be 1,1250 (258 pips).
Resistances
1,1540 - 1,1600
Supports
1,1480 - 1,1420


USD/JPY - Dollar Yen

93,21. USD JPY is in an downtrend directed by 4H exponential moving averages. USD JPY is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. The volatility is low. Oscillators are neutral. The price should continue to move in 91,80 / 93,60 range.
Resistances
93,60 - 94,10
Supports
92,80 - 91,80