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[عبد المهيمن]

Forex Marekt Update from Saxo bank 15/02/2008


Forex Market UpdateFriday, February 15, 2008 7:43:29 AM GMT By John Hardy
FX-specialist, Market Strategist,
EURUSD at pivot point as very positive US trade balance report unable to support the USD yesterday.

Market momentum is a hard thing to come by lately as we look for signs of more conviction.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION


Overnight developments:

• New Zealand Dec. Retail Sales rose 0.1% as expected, but Q4 Retail Sales ex Inflation were out at 0.3% vs. 0.6% expected
• Former Fed Chairman Greenspan said US is on the edge of a recession
• Japan BoJ maintained the target rate at 0.50% as expected

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION


Key event risks today (all times GMT):

• France Q4 Nonfarm Payrolls (0745)
• Norway Jan. Trade Balance (1000)
• Canada Dec. Manufacturing Shipments (1330)
• EuroZone ECBs Trichet to speak on structural reforms (1400)
• US Dec. TICs data (1400)
• US Jan. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (1415)
• US Feb. Michigan Confidence (1500)

Market Comments
Stock markets made an about face and fell sharply yesterday, supposedly on the rather dour outlook from the Fed chairman yesterday, but Bernanke had nothing very new to say in our estimation. And if the economic outlook is poor, why did fixed income yields rise across the board despite the fairly sharp equity sell-off? Treasuries may be losing their shine as a harbor of safety. The FX implications of this are unclear at the moment.
The USD reaction to the market moves yesterday was mixed to slightly weak, but the JPY and especially CHF strengthened after recent sharp sell-offs on the equity weakness in the US Session. USDCHF was turned back at the key 1.1100 area we discussed yesterday and EURCHF saw a classic reversal pattern yesterday (see chart below). EURUSD has risen to the final resistance level of note within the wider range at 1.4635 and a bit more. The bearish EURUSD technicals have lost all steam unless we get a hefty sell-off from this area today. Trichet bolstered the Euro a bit as well with rhetoric yesterday suggesting the that the US conditions are different from those in the EuroZone and continued to harp on the risks of 2nd round inflation effects and even the risk from inflation in emerging market economies. This rhetoric goes against the grain of the much discussed recoupling idea and kept EURUSD bid late yesterday. USD bulls should also be disappointed by the inability of the USD to gain any momentum from the very strong Trade Balance report yesterday, which showed an accelerating positive trend for the ex Petroleum Trade Balance. That latter figure has improved from averages well below -40B per month in 2006 to an impressive -27.24B for December, showing the smallest trade deficit ex petroleum since 2002.
Across the board, we see trouble for momentum/trend traders looking for sizeable directional swings as we continue to see rangebound activity and an inability for breakouts to hold. USDJPY, for example, followed up on its breakout higher with a rise to the 108.60 area only to be beaten back by the equity sell-off all the way back below the key 107.90 support level that was former resistance. But rather then closing lower and forming a convincing reversal pattern, we see the pair creeping back higher above 108.00 and continuing to leave the outlook uncertain.
The last two days were an interesting test for GBP, as the market weighed the much more hawkish than expected BOE inflation report on Wednesday. King's insistence that inflation could continue higher in the short term forced the market to unwind a good portion of the monetary easing priced into the forward expectations for the BOE. In many market regimes, all else being equal, the higher rate view would bolster the currency. And we did see GBP responding a bit stronger initially. But yesterday's reversal in EURGBP from an attempt lower seems to be telling us that rather than worrying about policy tightness, the market is worrying that the lack of aggressive easing by the BOE increases that the UK economy is headed for a hard landing.
The biggest mover overnight was NZD, which saw a sharp sell-off on a weaker than expected Retail Sales number ex inflation. NZD is looking increasingly vulnerable.


Charts: EURUSD and EURCHF
EURUSD
The USD is poised at a key pivot point here as the momentum developed by the EURUSD sell-off has faded and the pair is now creeping above the 55-day moving average and the first key Fibo retracement (around 1.4635). Will the USD finally make a stand here or will EURUSD continue to creep back toward the high end of the range?

EURCHF
EURCHF reversed back lower yesterday, but we are only tempted to sell if the pair moves to new 3-day lows (below the line at 1.6044) as the broader market has shown a nasty habit of not following through on directional moves of late.


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[عبد المهيمن]

تقرير Commonwealth Bank
15/02/2008

[عبد المهيمن]

UBS BANK Morning report 15/02/2008

Morning Adviser Europe2/15/2008 7:13:00 AMNZ Demand Moderates

By Ashley Davies
USD: Dollar down on Bernanke JPY: BoJ downgrades global economic outlook EUR: GDP growth slows NOK: Gjedrem sounds hawkish note CAD: Trade surplus shrinks NZD: We are short NZD via AUDNZD TWD: Expecting further, gradual appreciation RON: Little reason for optimism BRL: Profit taking on the back of weak US equities Technical FX: EURJPY faces resistance at 159.49
G10

USD

The dollar weakened in New York trading in response to Fed Chairman Bernanke's testimony before the Senate Budget Committee and has just gapped lower against EUR and AUD in the late Asia session as we write. There were no macro developments of note in the Asia session with respect to the dollar. In his testimony, Bernanke reiterated downside risks to US economic growth and the Fed's readiness to respond. He also assured the market that he expects "a somewhat stronger pace of growth starting later this year as the effects of monetary and fiscal stimulus begin to be felt." However, investors focused more on the Chairman's statement that "a significant worsening in financial conditions or in credit availability would certainly be a warning bell that we need to take further action." On the data front, weekly jobless claims were roughly in line with expectations at 348k, down from 357k the prior week. The trade deficit narrowed more than expected from $63.1bn in November to $58.8bn in December. The trade data show a much narrower trade gap than factored into the initial estimate of Q4 real GDP and according to our economists, suggest an upward revision of 0.4 point to Q4 growth; other data that are factored into GDP (construction, retail sales) offset some of that rise. All in, it appears that Q4 GDP will be revised up by about 0.2 point, to a 0.8% annual rate, above the initially reported 0.6% rate.
Chicago Fed President Evans, speaking Thursday in Chicago, also emphasized a return to near trend growth in 2H08, after slowing in the first half of the year. According to Evans, the effects of the Fed rate cuts are probably only just beginning to be felt. Our economists forecast a 25bp rate cut next month to 2.75% and look for rates to reach 2.25% by mid-year while the OIS market is currently pricing in 44bp of easing at the March 18 FOMC meeting and 98.5bp of easing over the next twelve months. With downside risks to growth in the US already largely priced into the USD, but Eurozone data deteriorating and therefore justifying easing, we look for EURUSD to trade down to 1.43 over 3 months.
There are several notable data releases ahead today. The Empire Manufacturing index (UBSe 0.0, consensus 6.5, previous 9.0) and import price index (UBSe 1.4%, consensus 0.5%, previous 0.0%) will be released at 1330 GMT, followed by December TIC flows (consensus $73.5bn, previous $90.0bn) at 1400 GMT, and industrial production for January (UBSe 0.2%, consensus 0.1%, previous 0.0%) at 1415 GMT. Finally, the preliminary February release of the University of Michigan confidence indicator (UBSe 70.0, consensus 76.0, previous 78.4) is due at 1500 GMT. Fed Governor Mishkin will speak at 1815 GMT.
JPY

The BoJ board left interest rate on hold today in a unanimous decision. In the subsequently released monthly report, the BoJ downgraded its assessment on the global economy and on Japanese production, while retaining their scenario for a further moderate expansion in Japan's economy. Foreign exchange reserves for January were released on Feb 7, and this typically uneventful release has drawn some attention. Reserves rose by US$23.1 bn, which is the largest increase since the BoJ last intervened in March 2004. However, a large increase in reserves does not necessarily imply that the BoJ has resumed intervention, as foreign exchange reserves can also change due to valuation effects. The change in reserves in January is equal to 2.3% of total reserves, which while large, could be accounted for by any clustering of coupon receipts. Also note that 2-year Treasury yields fell from 3.04% on Dec. 31 to 2.09% on Jan.31, or almost 100bp. Hence, foreign exchange reserves may have increased significantly simply due to a strong US bond market. We think USDJPY remains driven by equity market sentiment and expect the pair to trade in a 105-110 range, with greater risk of a break on the downside.
EUR

Eurozone Q4 GDP rose 0.4% q/q, slightly better than the expected 0.3% growth rate but down from 0.8% in Q3. Although this is a backward-looking indicator, it nevertheless shows that growth has slowed and is trending downwards. ECB President Trichet, speaking Thursday in Barcelona, said that the ECB will do what is necessary in order to anchor prices. Trichet also said that economic conditions in the US and UK are very different than that of the Eurozone, and that each respective central bank must do what is necessary within the context of their own economies. ECB council member Axel Weber, speaking Thursday, in Germany, reiterated that price stability is the primary aim of the ECB. While noting downside risks to growth, Weber emphasized that the ECB is more concerned with securing price stability. Weber said that current ECB interest rate expectations "do not reflect an appropriate assessment of inflation risks." In contrast, comments from fellow council member Guy Quaden, made Wednesday, signalled a more dovish tone. Quaden said that the Eurozone, though less dependent on the US, is not immune to a US economic slowdown. Quaden also suggested that the ECB will cut its economic growth forecast in March and that the central bank was no longer in "wait-and-see" mode. The OIS market is currently pricing in 86.5bp of easing over the next twelve months. Our economists continue to expect that weakening economic fundamentals will warrant ECB rate cuts, and forecast 100bp of easing by year end, though we and the consensus expect no change to rates at 4.00% at the March 6 meeting. We target EURGBP at 0.74 in three months. Ahead today, French Q4 employment data will be released at 745 GMT. The Eurozone trade balance for December (consensus ?2.5bn, previous ?2.7bn) is due at 1000 GMT. ECB council members Liikanen and Quaden will speak at 1045 GMT. ECB President Trichet will speak about structural reform at 1400 GMT.
NOK

Norges Bank Governor Gjedrem, in a speech before the central bank's supervisory council on Thursday, gave his outlook on financial crises and Norway's economy. Gjedrem said that the Norwegian economy remains strong though there are signs that price inflation is on the rise. In addition, low productivity in the labour market may put further upward pressure on wage inflation. Gjedrem also said that there are signs of a cooling housing market throughout the country; but that the full impact of financial market turbulence on the Norwegian economy is unclear. As the comments hit the wires, the NOK strengthened against all the majors bar the NZD as market expectations for an interest rate hike increased. Our economists look for Norges Bank to leave rates on hold at the March 13 meeting; however, as we believe slowing global growth will offset Norway's upbeat economic trends.
CAD

Canada's merchandise trade surplus shrunk from C$3.8bn in November to C$2.4bn in December, well below the expected C$3.4bn. Merchandise exports declined 3.1% m/m to C$36.7bn while imports increased 0.7% m/m to C$34.3bn. Export declines were widespread with only one sector, energy products, reporting an increase. Rising energy product exports, which increased 4.4% m/m, were not enough to offset significant declines in other sectors, led by a 6.5% drop in exports of industrial goods and materials, an 8.7% fall in automotive products, and a 4.6% decline in machinery and equipment. For 2007 as a whole, the merchandise trade surplus fell to $49.7bn, the lowest level since 1999. Exports and imports both hit record levels in 2007. Export growth was largely centred in industrial product and materials and energy products. Strong commodity prices and volumes for petroleum and ****ls were responsible for the 11.2% gain in industrial goods and materials and the products and the 5.8% gain in energy products. Meanwhile, the stronger CAD was cited as a key contributor to import growth in 2007. Imports were higher in most sectors, with other consumer goods rising 5.3%, energy products increasing 6.0%, and agricultural and fishing products rising 8.7% contributing to most of this year's gain. The weaker trade data for December, however, lend more support to our economists' call for the Bank of Canada to continue to lower the overnight rate target, cutting by another 25bp to 3.75% at the March 4 meeting and by 100bp total in 2008 with rates reaching 3.00% by year end. The OIS market is presently pricing in 35bp of easing at the March meeting and 93.5bp of easing over the next twelve months. We continue to expect USDCAD to trade up to 1.05 over the medium term. Ahead today, new motor vehicle sales (UBSe 3.0%,consensus 3.0%, previous -2.9%) and manufacturing shipments (UBSe 0.5%, consensus -0.2%, previous 1.%) will be released at 1330 GMT.
NZD

New Zealand retail sales for December were released this morning and rose by 0.1% m/m, while core sales rose by 0.3% m/m. Retail sales over the December quarter also rose a modest 0.3% q/q. Overall, the retail sales data was good news for the RBNZ, in that it shows that a large portion of domestic demand growth has been reined in. Our NZ economist believes that this, along with global developments, should be sufficient for the RBNZ to stay on hold in March, with the possibility of a slightly more neutral tone at that point. Note also that recent housing data has been soft and that dairy production is weakening due to the drought, while world dairy prices also look to be softening. We are long AUDNZD today from 1.15, targeting a rise to 1.18 with a stop at 1.138. This is a consensus trade, but with the RBA likely to raise rates in March, AUD should be steady and hence AUDNZD should be able to trend higher for now. We remain bearish on AUD over a longer- time horizon however.
Emerging FX

TWD

The TWD has advanced past the 31.80 strike price for the long 1y USD-put / TWD-call option recommendation we initiated on October 4. At entry, the option costs 1.5225% of USD face, with vols at 3.720. The USDTWD spot slipped to a low of 31.570 this week. Net of the 1.52% of USD face premium, the trade is now 2.2% in the money. We would hold on to the trade for now. As reflected in the pace of TWD appreciation in recent weeks, we think the CBC is becoming less averse to a stronger TWD, guided in our view by the central bank's concerns over the accelerating inflation. Additionally, we expect further boost for the TWD from foreign investment inflows front, which is likely to emerge after the March 22 presidential election. Despite the milder than expected inflation in January, we continue to think inflationary pressure will persist in Taiwan until Q3 this year before headline prints ease in Q4. Here we note that import unit value cost accelerated to 9.4% y/y in December from a low of 2.0% in September. This will trickle through to headline inflation given the +0.46 correlation between inflation and import prices with 1-2 month lag. This is likely to mean the CBC would be more tolerant of currency appreciation to curb imported inflation for now. Separately, our positive view on the TWD also emanates from our expectation of investment inflows from across the Straits given the imminent political change in Taiwan. Taiwan's presidential election on March 22 is likely to usher a more friendly policy towards the mainland. This seems likely to be reciprocated. As part of his Communist Party Congress opening speech last year, President Hu Jintao made a peace overture to Taipei with a soft-toned conciliatory note calling for talks and hinted at extending investments to and business links with Taiwan if a more amiable cross-Straits relationship could be fostered. In particular, we think the tourism and logistic industries are likely to benefit most from the opening up of business links between the Taiwan and China. Taiwan's insurance and financial sector could also benefit from its closer proximity to Shanghai and Beijing if compared to Hong Kong or Macao, where China has invested extensively in recent years. We think the frosty relationship between China and Taiwan could be thawed given the island's leadership change in March. We expect the USDTWD to test the 31.00 mark at the interim - the likely intermittent CBC intervention notwithstanding - with lower prints likely if the actual investment inflows are seen after the March 22 presidential election.
RON

Romania's current account deficit for 2007 expanded to EUR16.9 bn, which is 14% of GDP. We retain our medium-term negative RON bias. Although the central bank has been raising rates and there could be more hikes on the way, we are not convinced that this will be enough to keep the RON from slipping. On top of the deficit being high, we are concerned that consumption rather than investment is the main driver of import growth. This sets Romania apart from the likes of Poland where a rising savings-investment gap is driven by a rising investment-to-GDP ratio. We view the latter as more positive because it improves an economy's growth potential. Lax fiscal policy will also limit any salutary impact higher policy rates may have on the RON. Although the government has made the right noises on limiting wage increases and restraining the fiscal deficit, we are not convinced investors will give them the benefit of the doubt given the uncertain political environment. At 3.5% of GDP the fiscal deficit is higher than the 3% permitted under EU norms. We would watch future inflation prints and wage negotiations with the public sector as key indicators of whether this imbalanced economy is being brought back to a more stable state. This week's inflation data pointed to little progress in this regard. January inflation rose to 7.3% y/y against a consensus expectation of 7.1% y/y and a central bank target of 2.8%-4.8%. We have liked taking a defensive view on the RON by being long PLN. We are still in favour of this trade from a medium-term perspective.
BRL

The BRL lost around 0.5% on Thursday closing at 1.7531. The weakness on US equities on the back of additional negative news from the US financial sector has triggered some profit taking on the BRL. We think the BRL appreciation of the last few days was driven mainly by more speculative and opportunistic positioning. It seems that more fundamental USD flows into Brazil remain weak since there are no signs yet of IPOs coming back, offshore bond issuance is decreasing due to required elevated premiums and trade balance is decreasing at the margin as imports is growing at much faster pace than exports. For these reasons, we prefer to stay neutral at moment waiting for better levels to start new short USDBRL positions.
Technical FX

EURUSD NEUTRAL Pressuring 1.4653, a break of which is necessary to offset the broader bear threat and relieve pressure on 1.4440 USDJPY NEUTRAL Move above 108.65 needed to expose 110.12. Support at 106.29. GBPUSD NEUTRAL Rebound from 1.9389 unlocks resistance cluster between 1.9740 and 1.9789 USDCHF NEUTRAL Break of 1.0934 / 1.1122 necessary for near-term directional move AUDUSD BULLISH Recovery from 0.8875 stalls at 0.9102 high but only sub-0.8875 would threaten the up-trend USDCAD BEARISH Break of 0.9873 / 1.0128 required for next near-term directional move EURCHF BEARISH Recovery from 1.5940 pushes above 1.6111 Fibonacci resistance exposing 1.6217. Nearby support at 1.6045 ahead of 1.5944 EURGBP NEUTRAL Bearish below 0.7544, with our focus on 0.7392 bear trigger EURJPY BEARISH Recovery from 154.02 pushes above 157.40, exposing 159.49
*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined in the table is determined by our proprietary model and is independent of our discretionary interpretation of price action.
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[عبد المهيمن]

UPDATED NY 25 Mar 11.43 GMT


GBP/USD extended the retreat from the new year highs at 2.0390/99 on 13/14 Mar to reach 1.9735 last Thurs ahead of the latest corrective recovery. Today's clearance of 1.9860-80 (highs made last Fri/Thurs) has completed a s-term base, setting up a partial retrace of the slide from last Tue's 2.0275 lower top toward 2.0005-44, possibly 2.0124-52 before attempting to form a top


EUR/USD extended the retreat from the 1.5905 peak seen on 17 Mar to reach 1.5341 on Mon, almost fully retracing the rise from 1.5282 on 11 Mar. A recovery now under way from 1.5341, this initially stalled at 1.5572, spot-on the d-trend connecting 1.5905/1.5833 (17/18 Mar highs), but a push through there a min'm of 1.5613-50, possibly 1.5732-86 is now under way


USD/JPY extended recent steady losses through the bottom of the 3 month bear channel to reach a near 13-year low at 95.77 on 17 Mar before recovering to 100.45 last Weds. From the subsequent higher low at 97.67 a further recovery has reached 101.04 so far. As yet, a lasting high is not signalled at 101.04, a fresh higher low now by 99.00-31 may set up a further rise to 101.40-70+

USD/CHF has steadily recovered from last Mon's new all-time low at .9630, having retraced the majority of the slide from 1.0355 on 12 Mar to reach 1.0250 on Mon ahead of the latest dip. As yet, 1.0250 is unconfirmed as a s-term top with a break of 1.0050-58 req'd to put on hold immed hopes of a fresh rise toward 1.0287-1.0315, poss 1.0337-55. Losing 1.0050-58 opens min'm .9948-80


USD/CAD has pushed through 1.0015 (17 Mar high/bear t-line off 1.0380) to turn short term outlook positive. Gains extended through the 1.0199 (20 Feb high) lwr swing high to possibly open 1.0380 (22 Jan year"s high) for a retest. 1.0308 has capped thus far and current setback needs to seek higher lows over 1.0040-92 (50-62% of .9876-1.0308) to keep upside scope intact

AUD/USD continues the choppy retreat from .9498 on 28 Feb, a 24 year high, this after extending gains from .8513 on 22 Jan through 2007 peak at .9401. From last Wed's .9354 lower top losses reached .8954 last Thurs ahead of the latest recovery to .9154, an exact 50% retrace. While .9168 intact (low/high seen last Mon/Weds) the risk is for fresh losses to .8874-.8915 over coming days


NZD/USD retested 27 Feb peak at .8215 on 14 Mar, highest since 1982, after fully retracing losses to .7875 on 11 Mar. A sharp dip from .8215 slightly exceeded .7875 to reach .7867 last Thurs ahead of the latest correcn higher. Clearing nearby resist at last Thur's .8046 lower top will put on hold immed fears of a fresh retreat in favour of .8105-60, last Wed's intraday low/hgh

US$ Index accelerated lower over recent weeks since breaching 23 Nov 07 low at 74.484. The retreat started at 77.854 on 19 Dec with a lower top left at 77.043 on 07 Feb. 70.698 (2008 low, 17 Mar) was met ahead of a recovery. Last Thur's break of 72.281 (14 Mar high) saw an extn to 73.194 Mon. Higher low now sought before further 73.402 target. Loss of 71.651 (62% retrace) weakens.

GBP/JPY fell from 213.50 (27 Feb high) to complete a multi-week bear triangle. 203.55 was seen on 03 Mar and a 203.55-207.95 range preceded a sharp drop to 192.55 (17 Mar low). From here a surge higher has so far reached 201.80 (19 Mar high) before a deep retrace back to 195.10 (20 Mar low). A break back above 201.80 hints at s-term strength with 203.55/90 area being next tgt

EUR/JPY fell steadily from 161.43 (2008 high - 27 Feb) initially supported at 155.95 (03 Mar low) before a two week consolidation and then eventual break lower, finding support at a new annual low of 151.82 (20 Mar) near the January low at 152.10. This failure to maintain the break of 152.00 hints at further upside before weakness can re-assert. Below 153.03 defers.

EUR/GBP has undergone a deeper setback from the 17 Mar new all-time high at .7913, reaching .7746 on Mon after initial weakness to .7770 on 19 Mar was followed by a lower top at .7895. A bounce is now under way from .7746/52 lows, this is fav'd to extend toward .7838-53 before attempting to leave a fresh lower top below .7896 for a retest of .7746-70, below which opens .7717-24

GBP/CHF broke down from a prolonged consoln between 2.0430-95 and 2.0725-75 on 14 Mar, accelerating losses from 2.1845 (14 Feb lower top) to 1.9385 (17 Mar), 12-yr lows. A choppy recovery has followed, reaching 2.0330 following the break of last Wed's 2.0195 high. Latest setback needs a higher low above Mon's one at 2.0000 to maintain hopes of a recov extn to 2.0485-2.0575+

EUR/CHF accelerated the decline from the 1.6231 recov high seen on 21 Feb to reach 1.5340 last Mon, lowest since Jun 05, this followed the loss of 1.5618, the 11 Mar low. A choppy recovery phase has followed, the latest leg higher from last Fri's 1.5538 higher low having taken out last Thur's 1.5705 top to test the top of our 1.5749-77 next tgt, raising hopes of 1.5804-21 after correcn.

GBP/AUD has been trading in a well-defined bearish trend channel for the last four years. Recent price action has led to a break lower out of this channel reaching 2.0950 (2008 low - 28 Feb). Long term structure favours continued downside. However the surge off 2.1325 has broken 2.1985 (13 Feb high) and Thur's break abv 2.2015 signals n-term strength, risking 2.2295/2.2800.

EUR/AUD formed a double bottom at 1.5475/95 (26 Jul 07/ 01 Nov 07 lows) leading to a sharp move higher peaking at 1.7160 (23 Nov 07 high). A broad consoln below this level broke to the downside finding sppt at 1.5925 (2008 low - 19 Feb). The rally from here has broken through a weekly d-trend line joining peaks at 1.7460/7160/6950. Now targets upper resist of a multi year channel.

GOLD CASH Steep 3 day sell-off from 1030.8 record high halted Thurs at 904.65. An extreme oversold state (RSI lowest since Sep 06) unwinds and buyers look to resistance from 20 Mar intraday high of 938.90. Over 943.00 is though the trigger for an add'l, initially 952.80 (38.2% of 1030.8-904.65), then 959.45 (5 Mar low). However, a fresh probe of 904.65 then possible.

[عبد المهيمن]

UPDATED LDN 26 Mar 07.46 GMT



GBP/USD extended losses from the year's high at 2.0399 on 14 Mar to reach 1.9735 last Thurs before recovering. Mon's clearance of 1.9860-80 (highs last Fri/Thurs) completed a s-term base, setting up a partial retrace of the slide from last Tue's 2.0275 lower top. Our 2.0005-44 min'm tgt was exceeded at 2.0068 ahead of latest consoln. A higher low by 1.9892-2.0030 fav'd to set up 2.0124-52


EUR/USD extended losses from the 1.5905 peak on 17 Mar to reach 1.5341 on Mon, almost fully retracing the rise from 1.5282 on 11 Mar. The recovery from 1.5341 breached the d-trend connecting 1.5905/1.5833 (17/18 Mar highs) on Tues, slightly exceeding our 1.5613-50 min'm tgt to reach 1.5660 ahead of latest consoln. Risk of dip toward 1.5456-1.5525 before an extn toward 1.5732-86

USD/JPY encounters resistance towards 101.15 lower high (14 Mar) following recent progressive upswings from 95.77 low (17 Mar). Developing hourly lower tops off 101.04 high now weigh ahead of further pullback to retrace 97.67 upleg (19 Mar) towards 99.31 (24 Mar low, nr 50% of 97.67/101.04 rise) and possibly 99.00 before next upside attempt. Lower reversal at 98.45 however weakens.


USD/CHF steadily recovered from last Mon's new all-time low at .9630, retracing the majority of the slide from 1.0355 on 12 Mar to reach 1.0250 on Mon ahead of the latest setback. 1.0039-50 so far tested, the risk now is for a lower top by 1.0169-1.0200 to trigger a deeper setback to a min'm of 1.0000-13 then .9948-80. Back over 1.0200-23 will be bullish, reopening 1.0355.

GBP/USD extended losses from the year's high at 2.0399 on 14 Mar to reach 1.9735 last Thurs before recovering. Mon's clearance of 1.9860-80 (highs last Fri/Thurs) completed a s-term base, setting up a partial retrace of the slide from last Tue's 2.0275 lower top. Our 2.0005-44 min'm tgt was exceeded at 2.0068 ahead of latest consoln. A higher low by 1.9892-2.0030 fav'd to set up 2.0124-52

USD/CAD has pushed through 1.0015 (17 Mar high/bear t-line off 1.0380) to turn short term outlook positive. Gains extended through the 1.0199 (20 Feb high) to possibly open 1.0380 (22 Jan year"s high) for a retest. 1.0308 capped ahead of the latest pullback which has held up at its 38% retrace so far. A higher low by 1.0040-92 (50-62% of .9876-1.0308) req'd to keep upside scope intact


AUD/USD continues the choppy retreat from .9498 on 28 Feb, a 24 year high, this after extending gains from .8513 on 22 Jan through 2007 peak at .9401. From last Wed's .9354 lower top, losses reached .8954 last Thurs ahead a recovery. Fresh break of .9168 (low/high seen last Mon/Weds) may see .9201 (62% retrace) before reverting back to .8874-.8915. Above .9201 defers.

EUR/GBP has undergone a deeper setback from the 17 Mar new all-time high at .7913, reaching .7746 on Mon after initial weakness to .7770 on 19 Mar had been followed by a lower top at .7895. Recovery attempts from Mon's .7746 low were capped at .7830 on Tues and if the latest dip from there loses suppt at .7761-72 then a further retreat toward .7717-24 possibly .7693-94 may follow

EUR/CHF accelerated the decline from the 1.6231 recov high seen on 21 Feb to reach 1.5340 last Mon, lowest since Jun 05, this followed the loss of 1.5618, the 11 Mar low. A choppy recovery phase has followed, the latest leg higher from last Fri's 1.5538 higher low having taken out last Thur's 1.5705 top to test the top of our 1.5749-77 next tgt, raising hopes of 1.5804-21 after a dip

GBP/CHF broke down from a prolonged consoln between 2.0430-95 and 2.0725-75 on 14 Mar, accelerating losses from 2.1845 (14 Feb lower top) to 1.9385 (17 Mar), 12-yr lows. A choppy recovery followed, testing 2.0330 on Mon/Tues following the break of last Wed's 2.0195 high. Consoln has followed, a higher low is sought above Mon's one at 2.0000 to maintain hopes of extn to 2.0485-2.0575+
EUR/CAD has been trading in a well defined multi-year wedge. The pair made a false break through the lower wedge support in Q4 2007, reaching 1.3285 (07 Nov 07 low). A surge up followed, peaking at 1.5200 (16 Jan high) before a correcn to 1.4410. From there the uptrend resumed, through wedge resist at 1.5275 to probe the 1.5900"s. Look to re-enter longs following retrace

EUR/JPY recoiling at lofty level ahead of key 157.04 lower high (19 Mar, near 4-week bear trendline) following advance from last Thur's 151.70 lower rejection. Meantime, further rise hinges on 155.16/00 with upside break extending retrace of prior 161.42/151.82 downleg towards 157.60/75. A reversal under 155.16/00 however brings out 7-day bearish flat consolidation to the fore.

GBP/JPY fell from 213.50 (27 Feb high) to complete a multi-week bear triangle. 203.55 was seen on 03 Mar and a 203.55-207.95 range preceded a sharp drop to 192.55 (17 Mar low). A surge higher reached 201.80 (19 Mar high) before retracing to 195.10 (20 Mar low). Current recov'y has breached 200.95, extn abv 201.80 sought for renewed strength higher. Sub-198.40 weakens resolve