التداول فى ظل الحيتان : تحليلات , صفقات و أرباح !

[_Zeus_FX_]

تحليل ويستباك بنك للعملات الرئيسية من لحظات
AUD

Macro: We are among the more optimistic on AUD in 2015 but it is hard to find the n/t catalyst for recovery. Our measure of Australian export prices (WCFIAECI on BBG) continues to edge to new lows since 2009. China’s data run mid-Dec shouldn’t be enough to calm fears over its momentum. And the week ahead locally probably won’t inspire confidence either. Even if Nov jobs surprise on the strong side, the survey’s recent wild revisions will ensure investor skepticism. No date is set for the government’s mid-year economic and fiscal update but when it is delivered some time before yearend, it will also provide food for AUD bears. Stabilization is probably the best we can expect for AUD crosses short term while AUD/USD seems likely to at least probe the 0.81 handle before price action becomes more two-way.

Model: Despite toxic developments in Australia of late - weaker Q3 GDP, heightened RBA easing expectations – the model flips from a small short to a small AUD long, even as our growth and total yield signals for AUD deteriorate. The key catalyst is a short USD surprise index signal (see USD commentary below). Despite Friday’s very robust payrolls report the cumulative run of data surprises in the last eight weeks has cooled.

Technical: Lack of follow-through identifies some ST momentum exhaustion but does not change the bearish outlook. Interim target 0.8050/75.
NZD

Macro: This week’s RBNZ meeting - a full-blown MPS - should present downgraded inflation and interest rate forecasts and repeat the warning that the NZD remains too high. The market’s response is likely to be to sell the NZD on the day. Over the medium term, there remains potential for it to fall to 0.7500 by February. Dairy commodities remain in a downtrend and the US dollar’s powerful uptrend remains intact.

Model: The model surprisingly tops up its small long NZD for the week ahead but at +4.6% of the portfolio the exposure remains by and large neutral. The model remains conflicted by a poor long term valuation signal and still constructive yield and growth signals.

Technical: Monday’s break of 2 year lows inflicted serious damage on the uptrend that began in 2009. Interim target at 0.7450/60 (2012 lows).
CAD

Macro: We are still not convinced lower energy prices will totally upend the CAD story, especially with core inflation tracking above the BoC's target and the balance
of economic data in recent weeks breaking almost uniformly to the stronger side of expectations. CAD seems a good buy vs the likes of AUD and NZD where lower dairy
and iron ore prices are more significant negatives, RBA rate cut speculation is unlikely to go away anytime soon and the RBNZ is likely to shave its bill
track projections at this week's MPS. NZD/CAD arguably offers better value than AUD/CAD which has already broken down.

Model: CAD-USD yield spread compression and lower energy prices have finally taken their toll on the model’s long held enthusiasm for CAD – the model jettisons its long and opens a large short (-22%).

Technical: The uptrend is again testing LT trend resistance at 1.1475/00. The uptrend remains in play, however price is contained between the 50 day MA (currently 1.1275/00) and LT trend resistance at 1.1475/00. Break of 1.1475/00 is key to an acceleration of the trend.
EUR

Macro: A solid uptake at the ECB's second TLTRO on Thu may defuse sovereign QE risks and limit EUR downside but we suspect gains will be fleeting. Cooler heads
will note that the ECB's EUR1trn+ balance sheet growth goal remains out of reach amid a sluggish pace of covered bond and ABS purchases and substantial
LTRO maturities next year. EUR/USD a clear sell on strength, though, with the down leg very mature, very well owned and not far from "big levels" (i.e. 1.20)
selling EUR vs the likes of GBP may have more mileage.

Model: The model ups its short EUR exposure from 6.9% to 8.9% amid a very poor growth and total yield signal. The current short EUR exposure is unlikely to grow much given that our suite of signals for euro still show a bullish current account momentum signal, improved long term valuation and most recently, a bearish USD surprise index signal.

Technical: Another new multi-year low weekly close confirms that the MT downtrend holds further potential. MT target remains 1.20/1.21.
GBP

Macro: GBP/USD should drift around mostly 1.57-1.59, avoiding new lows for now. EUR/GBP should hold near 0.79, remaining a sell on rallies but unlikely to take out the Oct lows under 0.78 given a low key UK calendar this week. Keep an eye on UK-US short term yield spreads. BoE rate hike expectations have been scaled back to the point that the UK-US 2yr govt bond spread (currently -33bp) is the lowest since mid-2006.

Model: After flirting with short positions over the last two weeks the model flips back into a long GBP exposure courtesy of a stronger growth signal following firmer PMIs and house prices last week.

Technical: The downtrend continues to produce new lows, however momentum exhaustion is making for a bumpy ride, as new lows typically lead to consolidation rather than an acceleration in the trend. Bounces should continue to fail and we target LT trend support at 1.5200/50 in the coming months.
CHF

Macro: SNB meeting a key event risk on Thursday for EUR/CHF given the Bank's recent statement that is prepared to take supplementary action “immediately” if necessary. EUR/CHF an obvious buy into 1.2010/20.

Model: CHF model shorts remain the order of the day albeit in reduced size for the week ahead (from -28.6% to -16.2%). A poor growth, long term valuation and total yield signal will however keep the model bearish on CHF for some week yet.

Technical: Price has finally broken above the recent double top at 0.9740/50 and again stumbled ahead of the 2014 high at 0.9839. New highs have not been accompanied by new highs in ST/MT momentum, implying that an impulsive break of the 2014 highs is unlikely in the near term. MT uptrend remains in play.
JPY

Macro: Revised GDP was not what we, or indeed pretty much any in the market expected it to be. With Japan in recession and an election at the weekend, the stakes in USD/JPY continue to rise. At least for the moment, the level of concern about the weak ¥ has been muted. Presumably, once the election is out the way, an extra budget can be directed towards those sectors that loose out here. We shift our bias back to buy again, although would much rather wait for a final push back into the 118-120 region.

Model: The model sticks with a contrarian JPY long for another week. Why? Business confidence has bounced back and retailing has stabilised after its mid-year stumble, tipping our growth signal in JPY’s favour. The fall in the currency in recent weeks has tipped our long term PPP and terms of trade valuation signal even more in JPY’s favour too. Even with a negative total yield signal and a bearish current account momentum signal, our growth and long term valuation signals constrain the model’s ability to short JPY and if anything tip the model long JPY.

Technical: Momentum extremes make us nervous of some bumps in the uptrend, but do not alter the bullish outlook. Interim target 123.50+.
USD

Macro: The USD will likely see a most a minor flesh wound if retail sales underwhelm this week, the focus instead likely to shift to the impending 17 Dec FOMC
meeting where expectations for more clarity around rate lift-off should create a fertile backdrop for the USD to keep plodding higher. USD bulls will be
encouraged by recent comments from the influential Dudley and Fischer, both of whom were very preoccupied with policy normalisation while slow wages, falling
inflation expectations and soggy global growth played second fiddle. Still open to the possibility of a good bout of year-end profit taking on USD longs in what
is typically a tough seasonal period for the USD but that might not be a story until the 17 Dec FOMC is out of the way. In the interim the USD index is a buy
into 88.5.

Model: We raise our long USD position from a negligible +3.3% to a more meaty 17.2% as a host of signals including total yield, growth and short term asset market fair value all lurch in the USD’s favour. Against that, our US data surprise index signal triggers a highly counterintuitive bearish USD signal. Despite Friday’s very robust payrolls report the cumulative run of data surprises in the last eight weeks has cooled. A short USD surprise index signal would typically push the portfolio into a large short USD exposure. However, other signals have moved even more decisively in the USD’s favour, largely negating the bearish USD surprise index signal.

Technical: The MT uptrend is well entrenched and currently trading towards the top of an uptrend channel that has been in play since mid-year. Channel top around 89.70/00 coincides with 8 year highs around 89.60/70 and is providing a ST obstacle for the uptrend. This key level is likely to break in the coming weeks..

[_Zeus_FX_]

تحليل و تعليق و توصيات بنك جولدمان ساكس من لحظات

{EU} Short EURUSD => We are positioned short via options with key levels for the session being: Support at 1.23 then yesterday’s low (1.2250); with resistance at the 1.2380-1.24 region.
{JN} Long USDJPY => We maintain USDJPY length, but have lightened slightly with key technical levels for today: Resistance at the 120.90-121 area, with support at coming in at the Asian lows of 119.77 and then 119.20-30.
{AU} Short AUDUSD => Here we maintain our bearish preference in AUD with next support zone of 0.8223 (o/n lows) and 0.8200, with 0.8330/50 above the resistance.
{NZ} Short NZDUSD via option => We maintain our short via options last week. Key levels: 0.7620 next support below which would open up 0.7500, with 0.7710 and then 0.7760 the resistance levels.
{GB} Flat GBPUSD => We remain neutral here. 1.5696 -1.5620 the range

[_Zeus_FX_]

تحديث من ب. ك. فوركس

New BK Trend Catcher Signals for 12.09.2014
***Trades are now triggering at 6pm using the 5pm NY Time Close as the marker. See this video for more details:
1. Buy GBP/CHF @ Market (1.52854) Stop 1.52204 Close half at 1.53354, move stop to break-even. Close rest at 1.54804
2. Buy EUR/NZD @ Market (1.60810) Stop 1.60160 Close half at 1.61310, move stop to break-even. Close rest at 1.62760
3. Sell AUD/JPY @ Market (100.070) Stop 100.720 Close half at 99.570, move stop to break-even. Close rest at 98.120
4. Buy GBP/NZD @ Market (2.04443) Stop 2.03793 Close half at 2.04943, move stop to break-even. Close rest at 2.06393
**If market price is higher (for short trades) or lower (for long trades) than our market price entry, trade can be taken with our same stops and targets.
**If your market price is WORSE than our market price entry and you still want to enter the trade than be sure to use our stops and targets.
Live Trades (Status)

1. Buy CAD/JPY @ Market (105.365) T1 Hit for +50, Stop moved to Breakeven targeting 107.315

[_Zeus_FX_]

USDCAD

صفقاتنا المفعلة على الزوج

تم القضاء على عنصر المخاطرة فى الصفقات الثلاث و أصبح من المستحيل أن نخسر فى أي منهن مهما فعل السعر

[_Zeus_FX_]

تعليق بنك مورجان ستانلى على الباوند الأن بعد صدور بيانات الانتاج الصناعى البريطانى منذ قليل
GBP is coming back under pressure following the UK industrial production data, which has come in weaker than expected. In particular the manufacturing data was weak, falling 0.7%M in October, taking the year-on-year rate down to 1.7% from a downward revised 2.2%Y (consensus was for a rise to 3.2%Y). This is the slowest pace of growth in manufacturing this year. A move back below the 1.5620 level is needed to give a renewed bearish signal, putting the focus back on the 1.5540 recent cycle lows. There is also potential for a EURGBP rebound, in our view, with a move above the 0.7900 level set to generate a further near-term positive signal for the cross, ta rgeting 0.7980.

[_Zeus_FX_]

نستمر فى نشر أهم توقعات و توصيات 2015 من أكبر البنوك الاستثمارية

أهم التوقعات و التوصيات لعام 2015 من بنك بى ان بى باريبا

15 Top FX Trades for 2015
1. Short EURUSD – target 1.15
2. Long USDJPY – target 128
3. Short EURCAD via 1y Ratio Collar
4. Long AUDJPY – target 109 spot; buy AUDJPY calls/sell USDJPY calls
5. Long GBP vs EUR or CHF – EURGBP target 0.72, GBPCHF target 1.73
6. Trading the UK general election – enter 3m3m FVA GBPUSD
7. Relative value commodity currency basket (long CAD and MXN vs short
NOK and AUD)
8. Buy EURAUD/Sell EURJPY forward vols as a relative value play on
policy divergence
9. AUDJPY/EURJPY call switches – buy 3y 110 AUDJPY call/sell 3y 175
EURJPY call
10. USDZAR – position for further gradual appreciation via call spread
11. PLN – stronger then weaker – zero cost put calendar spread
12. Buy the USD vs the SGD and KRW – USDSGD target 1.35, USDKRW
target 1150
13. Long MXN against a basket of JPY, EUR, and AUD – basket target +6.5%
14. Long BRL against ZAR – target 4.65
15. Long CLP against EUR – target 70

[_Zeus_FX_]

لمن يود أن يعلم المزيد عن الحركة الحالية لأهم الأزواج

من سيتى بنك الأن

Global flow update: G10 the focus
We’re seeing good turnover on our global platforms today, with activity concentrated in the G10 bloc. Net USD flows are now dipping into the negative territory, reversing all demand over the early European session. Further USD losses remain the risk should fixed income remain bid.
· USDJPY: Stronger than average turnover, clear bias for selling led by leveraged and bank names
· EURUSD: Stronger than average turnover, clear bias for selling led by bank names
· GBPUSD: Stronger than average turnover, biased 52% to buying led by leveraged and real money
· USDCHF: Average turnover, clear bias for selling led by leveraged and real money
· AUDUSD: Stronger than average turnover, clear bias for buying led by leveraged names
· USDCAD: Stronger than average turnover, biased 52% to selling led by leveraged names
· NZDUSD: Stronger than average turnover, clear bias for buying led by leveraged names

[ENG ESlAM]

لمن يود أن يعلم المزيد عن الحركة الحالية لأهم الأزواج

من سيتى بنك الأن

Global flow update: G10 the focus
We’re seeing good turnover on our global platforms today, with activity concentrated in the G10 bloc. Net USD flows are now dipping into the negative territory, reversing all demand over the early European session. Further USD losses remain the risk should fixed income remain bid.
· USDJPY: Stronger than average turnover, clear bias for selling led by leveraged and bank names
· EURUSD: Stronger than average turnover, clear bias for selling led by bank names
· GBPUSD: Stronger than average turnover, biased 52% to buying led by leveraged and real money
· USDCHF: Average turnover, clear bias for selling led by leveraged and real money
· AUDUSD: Stronger than average turnover, clear bias for buying led by leveraged names
· USDCAD: Stronger than average turnover, biased 52% to selling led by leveraged names
· NZDUSD: Stronger than average turnover, clear bias for buying led by leveraged names

مفهمتش الفرق بين التلاته دول
Leveraged names و Bank names و Real Money

مكن حضرتك توضح لنا الفرق

[_Zeus_FX_]

مفهمتش الفرق بين التلاته دول
Leveraged names و Bank names و Real Money

مكن حضرتك توضح لنا الفرق

دول فئات المتعاملين بالسوق . كل فئة لها أهدافها و استراتجيتها


Leveraged Names - Short-term traders, referring largely to the hedge fund community.

Bank Names- Refer to banks that deal in the market .

Real Money - Traders of significant size including pension funds, asset managers, insurance companies, etc. They are viewed as indicators of major long-term interest market interest, as opposed to shorter-term, intraday speculators.

[3aref]

أهلا هيما

أخبارك ايه ؟

لا تعتمد على التقارير و التحليلات و التوقعات الخ الخ فالسوق يتغير فى لحظة و عندما يتغير السوق لن تصدق انه تغير لانك قد كونت قناعة بأنه يجب ان يسير فى اتجاه محدد " و هذه هى المصيدة الحقيقية "

راقب حركة السعرأمامك بانتباه

أما ما تقترحه بشأن وضع صفقات البنوك المتفقة على شراء أو بيع عملة ما فهذا أمر صعب شوية

لأنه لا تقوم كل البنوك باصدار توصياتها على عملة محددة فى وقت محدد و لكن يمكنك مراجعة الصفحات السابقة لمعرفة أغلب توجهات البنوك

.. كنت أتمنى ان يكون هذا الموضوع بمثابة دراسة جماعية لأسباب دخول البنوك من هذا السعر و وضع الاستوب عند هذا السعر و الهدف ذاك المستوى و لو كان قد حدث ذلك لكان حقق الجميع أقصى استفادة و لكن مع الأسف يبدو أنه لا أحد يشاركنى هذا الاهتمام هنا و عليه أجد صعوبة فى التغريد وحيدا

أعمل على نقل تحليل و تعليقات البنوك على حركة سعرية معنية تتكرر باستمرار لكى يتسنى لمن يتابع أن يرى السعر بوضوح أكثر

و بالتوفيق للجميع

الحقيقة اخى زيوس اننا متابعينك بشغف ولكن المعلومات اللتى تقدمها لنا مستواها عالى جدا (معلومات دسمة) و كل معلومة صغيرة تقدمها لنا يكون ورائها قصة كبيرة مثلا مؤشر COT مثلا فقد اعطيتنا له كتاب لنقرأه .
فاعذرنا اخى لان التغريد معك يحتاج مستوى عالى من القراءة و البحث المتواصل فى المواقع و الكتب التى رشحتها لنا
اى اننا نحتاج بعض الوقت و المجهود و دعمك المتواصل لنا لكى نتفاعل معك اخى بالشكل الذى تتوقعه
وتحياتى لك

[ENG ESlAM]

لا تعتمد على التقارير و التحليلات و التوقعات الخ الخ فالسوق يتغير فى لحظة و عندما يتغير السوق لن تصدق انه تغير لانك قد كونت قناعة بأنه يجب ان يسير فى اتجاه محدد " و هذه هى المصيدة الحقيقية "

راقب حركة السعرأمامك بانتباه

أما ما تقترحه بشأن وضع صفقات البنوك المتفقة على شراء أو بيع عملة ما فهذا أمر صعب شوية

لأنه لا تقوم كل البنوك باصدار توصياتها على عملة محددة فى وقت محدد و لكن يمكنك مراجعة الصفحات السابقة لمعرفة أغلب توجهات البنوك

.. كنت أتمنى ان يكون هذا الموضوع بمثابة دراسة جماعية لأسباب دخول البنوك من هذا السعر و وضع الاستوب عند هذا السعر و الهدف ذاك المستوى و لو كان قد حدث ذلك لكان حقق الجميع أقصى استفادة و لكن مع الأسف يبدو أنه لا أحد يشاركنى هذا الاهتمام هنا و عليه أجد صعوبة فى التغريد وحيدا

أعمل على نقل تحليل و تعليقات البنوك على حركة سعرية معنية تتكرر باستمرار لكى يتسنى لمن يتابع أن يرى السعر بوضوح أكثر

و بالتوفيق للجميع

متابع بشفغ وباهتمام كبير و عامل للموشوع اشتراك بيجيلى E-MAIL فوري عقب اي مشاركه جديده ف الموضوع

الموضوع مفيد جدا جدا جدا ليا
اتمنى من الجميع الاستنفاده من هذا الموضوع لقراءه احداث السوق

اعذرني لقله المشاركه و لكنى اشارك كل ما اتيحت لى فرصه

[ENG ESlAM]

دول فئات المتعاملين بالسوق . كل فئة لها أهدافها و استراتجيتها


Leveraged Names - Short-term traders, referring largely to the hedge fund community.

Bank Names- Refer to banks that deal in the market .

Real Money - Traders of significant size including pension funds, asset managers, insurance companies, etc. They are viewed as indicators of major long-term interest market interest, as opposed to shorter-term, intraday speculators.

حسب ما فهت
ان Leveraged Names ممكن يدخلو عكس الاتجاه العام للسوق و ان مراكزهم بيتبقى صغيره مقارنه ب REAL MONEY و BANKS NAMES.


هل فى فئات تانيه ف السوق؟
ازاي ممكن نفرق بين الحركات اللى بتحدث لكل منهم؟

[_Zeus_FX_]

متابع بشفغ وباهتمام كبير و عامل للموشوع اشتراك بيجيلى E-MAIL فوري عقب اي مشاركه جديده ف الموضوع

الموضوع مفيد جدا جدا جدا ليا
اتمنى من الجميع الاستنفاده من هذا الموضوع لقراءه احداث السوق

اعذرني لقله المشاركه و لكنى اشارك كل ما اتيحت لى فرصه

الأهم هو أن تربط بين تعليق و تحليل بنك ما و بين حركة السعر و تكتب ملاحظاتك , عندها ستتعلم الكثير

تحياتى و تمنياتى لك بمزيد من الأرباح

[_Zeus_FX_]

حسب ما فهت
ان Leveraged Names ممكن يدخلو عكس الاتجاه العام للسوق و ان مراكزهم بيتبقى صغيره مقارنه ب REAL MONEY و BANKS NAMES.


هل فى فئات تانيه ف السوق؟
ازاي ممكن نفرق بين الحركات اللى بتحدث لكل منهم؟

الLeveraged Names اعتبرهم هيدج فاندرز و دول هدفهم تحقيق أعلى ربح فى أقصر وقت عشان كده هتلاقيهم على فريمات الساعة فما أدنى و ينظرون الى 4 ساعات لتحديد اتجاه السوق

باقى الفئتين دول هما اللى بيحركوا السوق و هتلاقيهم على فريمات اليوم و الاسبوع و بيتابعوا فريم الاربع اعات عشان يعرفوا الحركة الداخلية و لو تابعت تقرير COT هتستفاد كتير و هتعرف هما شغالين ازاى

كان فى حد طلب معلومات عن التقرير و انا وضعت بعض الروابط و الكتب المفيدة عن التقرير اللى بيسموه مؤشر الأموال الذكية فى مشاركات سابقة

[_Zeus_FX_]

منذ ديسمبر 1999 : كان ضعف الدولار فى شهر ديسمبر يساوى مرتين قوة الدولار فى الشهر ذاته

معناه : ليس من الغريب أن نرى ضعف الدولار خلال شهر ديسمبر الحالى