التداول فى ظل الحيتان : تحليلات , صفقات و أرباح !

[_Zeus_FX_]

أرباح مباركة أخي زيوس
+ شكرا لك على كل ما تقدمه

شكرا جزيلا
انما هى محاولة لنقل ما يدور داخل أبواب البنوك المغلقة الى المتداول الفرد .. لعل أحدا يرى ما لا يرى ... و لكن ......

تحياتى لك و تمنياتى بمزيد من النجاح و الأرباح

[_Zeus_FX_]

كمان أنت عندك من ناحية التحليل الفني الدولار أندكس اخترق مقاومة أسبوعية 1.8752

لو أغلق فوقيها بكدة يا معلم الدولار هايقعد فترة صاعد , على الأقل لغاية المقاومة الأسبوعية القادمة

دة غير أقرب منطقة عرض لسة شوية عليها ... اليورو في أنهيار و مين عارف يمكن يفضل في أنهيار

لغاية بداية السنة الجديدة !!!!!

خلينا نتابع السعر و نشوف ايه اللى هيحصل

[صاحب هدف]

سيتى بنك يدخل صفقة بيع EURUSD منذ 5 دقائق

الهدف 1.1000 أو أدنى بحلول صيف 2015

وقف الخسارة 1.2625

السلام عليكم ورحمة الله تعالى وبركاته
مساء الفل ياغالي عامل إيه وألف مبروك الأرباح

لو مافيش خطأ في نقل الأرقام ,, حبيت أسيب تعليق بسيط على الصفقة دي
إحنا ممكن جدا نشوف 1.1 على اليورو وممكن أقل شوية لكن الستوب ده مش هيصمد لغاية الهدف مايتحقق
والله أعلى واعلم
وانا من فترة عايز أسألك عن الموضوع ده
البنوك لما بتعلن عن صفقة معينة بستوب وهدف والإعلان مش مهم مجاني أو مدفوع ,, لو حصل تعديل أو خروج قبل الهدف أو الستوب ,, ياترى برضه يعلنوا عن الخروج ده ؟؟
تحياتي

[_Zeus_FX_]

السلام عليكم ورحمة الله تعالى وبركاته
مساء الفل ياغالي عامل إيه وألف مبروك الأرباح

لو مافيش خطأ في نقل الأرقام ,, حبيت أسيب تعليق بسيط على الصفقة دي
إحنا ممكن جدا نشوف 1.1 على اليورو وممكن أقل شوية لكن الستوب ده مش هيصمد لغاية الهدف مايتحقق
والله أعلى واعلم
وانا من فترة عايز أسألك عن الموضوع ده
البنوك لما بتعلن عن صفقة معينة بستوب وهدف والإعلان مش مهم مجاني أو مدفوع ,, لو حصل تعديل أو خروج قبل الهدف أو الستوب ,, ياترى برضه يعلنوا عن الخروج ده ؟؟
تحياتي

مساء الخير

بتم تحديث الصفقة بشكل مستمر و بيتم تنبيه العميل باستخدام الايميل أو غيره
و العميل له اسم مستخدم و باسورد عشان يدخل على موقع الابحاث فى البنك فى أى وقت يشوف ايه التحديث اللى حصل .. و يقرا أخر التقارير ..

مواقع الابحاث فى البنوك دى شغالة 24 ساعة 5 ايام فى الاسبوع

الناس اللى بيوصل لهم التوصيات و التقارير دى هما أصحاب المحافظ العملاقة و الشركات التجارية و صناديق الاستثمار و من هم على شاكلتهم و كل واحد فيهم مش مستنى البنك يعمل ايه و له استراتجيته الخاصة


تحيااااااااااااااااااااتى

[moslmb]

سلام علیکم اخی و صدیقی العزیز
قبل کل شی اشکرک علی نقل هذه المعلومات القیمه لاخوتک العرب
عندی سوال من حضرتک لو عندک اطلاع عنه و هو حول بیع و شراء اسراتیجیات المضاربه و التداول فی الغرب ! بان کیف تقیم الاستراتیجیه ؟ ما هی الموصفات الاستراتیجه الناجحه عندهم ؟ و کیف یحدد سعر الاستراتیجیه ؟ و کیف یتم اختبارها من قبل الشرکه او الموسسه او البنک ؟

مع تحیاتی و شکری

[_Zeus_FX_]

سلام علیکم اخی و صدیقی العزیز
قبل کل شی اشکرک علی نقل هذه المعلومات القیمه لاخوتک العرب
عندی سوال من حضرتک لو عندک اطلاع عنه و هو حول بیع و شراء اسراتیجیات المضاربه و التداول فی الغرب ! بان کیف تقیم الاستراتیجیه ؟ ما هی الموصفات الاستراتیجه الناجحه عندهم ؟ و کیف یحدد سعر الاستراتیجیه ؟ و کیف یتم اختبارها من قبل الشرکه او الموسسه او البنک ؟

مع تحیاتی و شکری

وعليكم السلام و رحمة الله و بركاته

العفو

بخصوص استفسارك

كيف تقيم الاستراتجية ؟

هناك مواقع متخصصة بمراجعة و تقييم الاستراتجيات و لكنها لا تعدو كونها مبادرات فردية من أصحاب المواقع دى و بالاضافة للناس اللى اشتروا و تعاملوا بالاستراتجية

ما هي الموصفات الاستراتيجه الناجحه عندهم ؟

تختلف باختلاف ما يتم البحث عنه فى الاستراتجية

کيف يحدد سعر الاستراتيجيه ؟

لا يوجد أى مقياس أو طريقة محددة انما يكون على حسب ما يقدره صاحب الاستراتجية و ما يقبله المشترى


کيف يتم اختبارها من قبل الشرکه او الموسسه او البنک ؟

لا يلتفت أيا منهم الى مثل هذه الاستراتجيات

لديهم باحثين و محللين و اساتذة يقومون بتطوير استراتجيات التداول الخاصة بالبنك

بالاعتماد على مؤشرات " مش مؤشرات تداول بس " و بيانات خاصة يقوم البنك بتطوير مؤشرات خاصة به لرصدها


لكن فى جزء ممكن يفيدك

لنفترض ان فى شخص لديه استراتجية تداول تحقق ربح معقول على مدى العام مثلا

يعمل ايه بقى ؟؟

بكل بساطة :

فى شركات و مؤسسات تثق ان فى مواهب مدفونة فى السوق ده و بتقدم لهم فرص تمويل و ادارة حسابات تابعة للمؤسسة دى

و لكن ده مش بسهولة كده و خلاص

المؤسسة دى بتراقب و تحلل و تقيم نتائج المتداول صاحب الاستراتجية دى من كل الجوانب بواسطة محترفين لمدة سنة تقريبا على حسابات حقيقية

لو فى استفسار انا موجود

تحياتى

[moslmb]

شکرا جزیلا علی الاجابه

مع تحیاتی و تقدیری

[hema007]

فى شركات و مؤسسات تثق ان فى مواهب مدفونة فى السوق ده و بتقدم لهم فرص تمويل و ادارة حسابات تابعة للمؤسسة دى

و لكن ده مش بسهولة كده و خلاص

المؤسسة دى بتراقب و تحلل و تقيم نتائج المتداول صاحب الاستراتجية دى من كل الجوانب بواسطة محترفين لمدة سنة تقريبا على حسابات حقيقية

لو فى استفسار انا موجود

تحياتى

لفت نظري الكلام اللي أنت قلته ...

طيب كيف بيحصل تواصل معهم و أية المطلوب علشان يهتموا بيك و يراقبوا طريقتك و أسلوبك في المتاجرة ؟

[_Zeus_FX_]

لفت نظري الكلام اللي أنت قلته ...

طيب كيف بيحصل تواصل معهم و أية المطلوب علشان يهتموا بيك و يراقبوا طريقتك و أسلوبك في المتاجرة ؟

بتدخل على موقعهم

بتقدم طلب

بتواصلوا معاك و بعترف ايه المطلوب بالضبط

[_Zeus_FX_]

البيانات الاقتصادية الصادرة اليوم و درجة أهميتها

[_Zeus_FX_]

لا تستخدم التوصية فى اتخاذ أية قرارات بالتداول و اتبع تحليلاتك و استراتجيتك الخاصة

[rmazab]

السلام عليكم ............ مافيش توصيه عن الذهب لو سمحت

[_Zeus_FX_]

السلام عليكم ............ مافيش توصيه عن الذهب لو سمحت

الصفقات التى كانت مفتوحة بالبيع او الشراء تم الخروج منها خلال أخر يومين الأسبوع السابق

سأقوم بنشر ما يستجد من توصيات مع بداية الأسبوع باذن الله

[_Zeus_FX_]

ZEUS FX SIGNAL
.................................................. .
GBPCAD السعر الأن 1.7798
.................................................. .
التوصية : بيع معلق
.................................................. .
سعر الدخول : أسفل 1.7780
.................................................. .
وقف الخسارة : أعلى 1.7943
.................................................. .
الهدف : 1.7564
.................................................. .


لا تستخدم التوصية فى اتخاذ أية قرارات بالتداول و اتبع تحليلاتك و استراتجيتك الخاصة

[_Zeus_FX_]

تعليق بنك باركليز على الأسواق

Dragon without a flame

Commodity currencies will likely come under further downward pressure next week as China data are set to highlight an ongoing structural slowdown in activity and that the country is no longer a driving force behind global growth – a dragon without a flame. November data are likely to show another sharp drop in the trade surplus, driven by a further slowdown in export growth as well as by continued moderation in industrial production and fixed asset investment growth, weighing on regional sentiment and supporting our call for further PBoC easing, including CNY depreciation (see the NJA section below for further details). Slowing growth in China has been an important contributor to the recent declines in commodity prices and while we expect aggregate EM growth to be more than double that of advanced economies next year (4.8%), a weaker China means EM growth momentum remains well behind DM (see Figure 1). Indeed, following recent downside surprises in IP and new loans, this week’s disappointing official China manufacturing PMI (50.3; consensus 50.5) has served as another reminder to investors of the vulnerability of China’s economic recovery. Although lower oil prices are an undeniable positive for China and most of the Asia region (see “Asia Themes: It's 'oil' good for Asia”, 2 December 2014), we remain of the view that further China policy stimulus is required to avoid a sharper slowdown in economic activity. As such, we forecast 50bp of benchmark lending rate cuts in H1 15, 150bp of RRR cuts before H2 15 and further CNY depreciation (see “China: Downside surprise in November PMIs supports further monetary easing”, 1 December 2014).

AUD and NZD, as commodity currencies with large trade exposure to China, are particularly vulnerable to further depreciation next week given their historical sensitivity to China data surprises and recent dovish central bank rhetoric (Figure 2). A both currencies have weakened considerably since their mid-year highs as commodity prices have declined and interest rate differentials with the US narrowed, the RBA and RBNZ remain uncomfortable with the still-overvalued levels. The RBNZ is likely to leave its policy rate unchanged at 3.50% (in line with consensus and market pricing) in Thursday’s December Monetary Policy Statement but reiterate its frustration with the NZD. In addition, there is a risk that this will push out its forecast resumption of rate hikes until late 2015/early 2016, likely weighing further on the NZD. In Australia, recent indirect signaling by the RBA suggests it is becoming increasingly frustrated that the AUD has not kept pace with Australia’s rapidly declining terms of trade and that it may consider cutting interest rates if AUDUSD does not fall below 80 cents by early next year. The significant dovish shift in RBA rhetoric coincides with recent disappointing Q3 GDP growth and the likely imminent announcement of macro-prudential measures to address an overheating Australian housing market (see “Australia: GDP, Q3 2014: A poor result as the RBA changes tack on the currency”, 3 December 2014). As such, our economist recently pushed back his RBA rate hike call from Q1 2015 to Q3 2015, raising downside risks to our AUDUSD forecasts (see “Australia: RBA cash rate decision, Dec 2014: Changing our policy call”, 2 December 2014). Although we are slightly more constructive than the market consensus on Australian labour market data next week (Thursday), these data are likely to be heavily discounted given recent problems with seasonal adjustment and we do not have a high degree of conviction.


Elsewhere, the ECB’s second TLTRO (Thursday) is likely to strengthen our bearish EUR view and confirm that the ECB’s current programmes, which also include ABS and covered bond purchases, will prove insufficient to expand the ECB’s balance sheet by the desired €1trn (total ECB assets amounted to EUR2,033bn on 21 November). Our rates strategists expect a €180bn take-up at the December TLTRO – consistent with a net liquidity injection of approximately €100bn. They think ABS and covered bond purchases are unlikely to add more than EUR300bn over a two-year horizon, meaning the ECB will likely have to include government bonds, and potentially other assets such as corporate bonds, in its purchase programme to achieve the desired balance sheet expansion. We continue to expect the ECB to announce European government bond purchases in Q1 2015.

In Japan, the focus should be on the upcoming 14 December election after the sharp rally in USDJPY this week. Recent polls suggest that the LDP/Komei coalition is likely to retain most of its 326 (of 479) seats, despite Prime Minister Abe’s declining approval rating. However, the prospect of a smaller majority remains and any indication that the ruling coalition may be losing traction would likely weigh on Japanese equities and USDJPY (see the JPY section below for further discussion). In Russia, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) rate decision on Thursday will be a closely watched event following recent substantial RUB depreciation. We are calling for a 100bp hike (market pricing is between 150 and 200bp) but this is unlikely to stop the RUB from weakening further. Although the RUB may find temporary relief from official indications of measures to fight speculators, along with likely FX intervention from CBR, we expect RUB depreciation to continue against a backdrop of lower oil prices, structural growth slowdown, and the central bank being behind the curve.

Idea for the week ahead: Short AUDUSD
Disappointing China data, continued weakness in commodity prices, narrowing Australia-US interest rate differentials and recent dovish RBA rhetoric point to further AUDUSD downside, in our view. Our technical strategist notes the monthly close below clustered support in the 0.8440 area (cloud base and Fibo level), encouraging our bearish view. Given that current short (CFTC net speculator) positioning is less than 60% of the short position built in 2013, we expect further downside in the weeks ahead. A move below our initial downside targets in the 0.8315 area would confirm an extension lower towards our greater targets near 0.8065, the 2010 range lows (Figure 3).


What to look for next week:

USD: Quiet week in terms of US data, solid retail sales expected in line with consensus
It is a quiet week in terms of US data and retail sales (Thursday) – first key cyclical activity data for November will be the only major one to note. Looking at 3m/3m change, core retail sales have been more resilient than manufacturing production, likely helped by lower gasoline prices (Figure 4); in fact, our economists expect private consumption to accelerate to 3.0% q/q in Q4 from 2.2% in Q3. For November, we look for another solid outcome, with headline retail sales of 0.4% m/m (consensus: 0.4%) and core of 0.4% (consensus: 0.4%). While our in-line-with-consensus forecast suggests little directional implication, strong November employment report last Friday supports our view of a June hike by the Fed (“US strong payroll report keeps Fed on track to tighten next June”, 5 December 2014) and our medium-term USD bullish view remains intact.


EUR: December TLTRO uptake and weak inflation outlook set to re-enforce our bearish EUR view and the need for EGB purchases in January
This week’s ECB meeting reinforced our conviction that further measures will most likely be announced in January 2015. The ECB emphasized that it had stepped up preparations for further action, with President Draghi making it clear that the ECB considered EGB purchases for monetary policy purposes to be legal and fully consistent with current EU Treaties (see “ECB Watching: Inching towards broad based QE”, 4 December 2014). Taking into account the latest developments on the oil front, we forecast euro area inflation to stay below 1.0% on average until 2016.

Next week’s TLTRO take-up (Thursday) is likely to strengthen our view that the ECB’s current programmes, which also include ABS and covered bond purchases, will prove insufficient to expand the ECB’s balance sheet by the desired €1trn (total ECB assets amounted to EUR2,033bn on 21 November). Our rates strategists expect a €180bn take-up at the December TLTRO – consistent with a net liquidity injection of approximately €100bn. We think ABS and covered bond purchases are unlikely to add more than EUR300bn over a two-year horizon, meaning the ECB will likely have to include government bonds, and potentially other assets such as corporate bonds, in its purchase programme to achieve the desired balance sheet expansion.

In terms of data, German (Monday), French (Wednesday) and euro area (Friday) Industrial Production data are likely to show a mild uptick. We expect German IP to rise by 0.5% m/m (consensus: 0.4% m/m), look for French IP to decrease by 0.1% m/m (consensus: 0.2% m/m) from 0.0% m/m in September and expect euro area IP to rise by 0.4% m/m (consensus: 0.2% m/m), consistent with a Q4 carry-over of 0.3% q/q. Finally, we expect the German HICP’s final revision (Thursday) to remain unchanged at 0.0% m/m (0.5% y/y), in line with consensus expectations. Overall, we continue to forecast significant EUR depreciation as poor relative returns continue to discourage EUR ownership and recommend staying short EURUSD.

GBP: Slowing industrial activity to weigh on sterling
In a relatively quiet week for UK data, industrial and manufacturing output (Tuesday) will be the focus and should be consistent with a further slowing of UK industrial activity, likely weighing on GBP. We expect industrial production to come in flat in October (0.0% m/m, 1.6% y/y; consensus: 0.2% m/m, 1.8% y/y). Manufacturing output is also expected to move sideways (0.0% m/m, 3.0% y/y; consensus: 0.2% m/m, 3.2% y/y). We forecast the November RICS house price balance (Thursday) to drop further to 10 points (consensus: 15) in line with a gradual cooling of the housing market. This week’s announced reform of duty stamp is likely to fuel a rebound in December, though.

JPY: Election headlines and economic data
Economic data as well as political developments in Japan will likely drive JPY in the coming week. First, economic data in Japan have been surprising to the upside recently after rounds of disappointing data over the autumn, as our Data Surprise Index for Japan is now at its highest level since October 2011. Reflecting the recent better than expected data, we expect the second estimate of Q2 GDP (Monday) to be revised up to 0.0% q/q saar from -1.6% as originally reported (consensus: -0.5%), given stronger-than-expected Q3 investment data. In terms of other data, we expect the October Machinery Orders (Thursday) to drop -3.8% m/m (consensus: -1.9%) and look for the October Index of Tertiary Industry Activity (Thursday) to decline -0.2% m/m (consensus: -0.2%). Second, Japanese political developments will also be closely followed as the snap election will be held on 14 December (Sunday). Recent polls suggest that the LDP/Komei coalition is likely to retain most of its 326 seats, despite PM Abe's falling approval rating. Although PM Abe announced an unexpectedly cautious target of a simple majority, the ‘true’ bar for victory is 270 seats (as agreed by both LDP/Komei), i.e. a “stable absolute majority” (266 seats) that would give the ruling coalition the chairmanships and majority control of all Lower House standing committees (See “Shift to a ‘rising tide’ policy mix”, 21 November 2014). Although the recent polls suggest that LDP/Komei are likely to well exceed such targets, the uncertainty around actual results may limit the directions for the pair or invite some reduction of short yen positions ahead of the election. However, if LDP/Komei coalition secures victory, then the continuation of Abenomics policies are likely to keep the yen weak going into next year.

AUD and NZD: Threats of news
Chinese data should be more important drivers of the AUD next week (see NJA section below), given the heavier data calendar in China relative to that for Australia next week. While weak Chinese data are likely to exert more pressures on the AUD, it could at the same time increase the risk of PBoC easing. Any unscheduled RRR or interest rate cut by PBoC could potentially drive a short-term bounce in the AUD. That said, our Australia economist noted in the Australia and New Zealand Weekly, 5 December 2014 that the RBA has signaled indirectly via the media that it is considering cutting the cash rate at its February meeting if the AUDUSD exchange rate does not fall below 0.80 by then. This likely reflects the RBA’s frustration with the real exchange rate failing to keep pace with the falling terms of trade, where our version of the bank’s fair value model points to the real TWI being 10% overvalued. As such, we think that the any AUD bounce would likely be short-lived, as it might lead to increased dovish signaling by RBA officials to ‘talk down’ its currency.

The November employment data for Australia will be released on Thursday (consensus view: employment: +15k, unemployment rate: 6.2%). However, given the unprecedented problems the ABS has encountered with seasonally adjusting the data over recent months, we would not place much emphasis on this data. The RBNZ should extend its pause at its policy meeting (Thursday), keeping the cash rate unchanged at 3.5%. There is however some risk that the RBNZ pushes out its forecast resumption of rate rises until late 2015/early 2016. This risk relates to the RBNZ’s frustration with the high exchange rate and with unexpectedly low inflation, although real economy activity remains strong.

المصدر :

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