التداول فى ظل الحيتان : تحليلات , صفقات و أرباح !

[ENG ESlAM]

السلام عليكم و رحمه الله و بركاته

مجهود رائع جدا استاذ Zeus

و لو سمحت اشارك معاك باذن الله من اليوم ان شاء الله تعالى

تقرير Morgan Stanley


Focus of the day:
"USD: Rest of the World keeps USD supported. Bullish.
Watch: JOLTs, Retail Sales.
USD will likely continue to see strength as data outperforms, and central banks elsewhere ease further. At the moment, we believe USD can strengthen even without the support of yields, as the US remains a relative growth outperformer, illustrated by the recent upward revision in GDP. We will watch to see if lower oil prices have supported retail sales.

EUR: Disappointment and Delay. Bearish.
Watch: IP.
The market had positioned for a more dovish stance at the latest ECB meeting, and the central bank failed to meet stretched expectations. As a result, we believe EURUSD could head higher in the near term. That said, we maintain our bearish medium term view. The central bank kept a dovish tone, aggressively lowering its inflation forecasts, with scope for even further downward revisions if oil prices remain soft, and explicitly mentioned it is considering further unconventional measures.

JPY: Polls Suggest Landslide Victory for Abe. Bearish.
Watch: CPI, Retail Sales, IP, Monetary Base.
Polls are suggesting that Abe will take a landslide victory in the upcoming elections, which should boost USDJPY. We remain JPY bears against USD, as we expect Abenomics to be successful, increasing the risk appetite of Japanese investors. However, should reforms progress slower than the market anticipates, JPY could outperform on the crosses. What’s more, any concerns about global risk appetite would also offer support to JPY.

GBP: GBPUSD Risks in 2015. Bearish.
Watch: IP, Trade.
We have lowered our GBPUSD forecast for 2015, due to increasing fiscal and political uncertainties. The latest OBR budget revised borrowing higher, suggesting that the UK could have to enact growth dampening austerity measures in the future. Political uncertainty could also influence foreign portfolio inflows in 2015, further adding to pressure on GBP. That said, growth is relatively robust compared to countries outside the US, so GBP could hold up on the crosses.

AUD: RBA rate expectations change. Bearish.
Watch: Home loans, Employment Change.
Despite some respite in iron ore prices, the AUD continues to decline. We remain bearish since economic indicators are weakening, such as 3Q GDP undershooting market expectations, inflation expectations are falling and subsequently rate cut expectations from the RBA are starting to be priced into next year. As market expectations for a rate cut increase this would support our bearish view. We will also be keeping an eye on commodity prices as these support bearish AUD."

[_Zeus_FX_]

السلام عليكم و رحمه الله و بركاته

مجهود رائع جدا استاذ Zeus

و لو سمحت اشارك معاك باذن الله من اليوم ان شاء الله تعالى

تقرير Morgan Stanley


Focus of the day:
"USD: Rest of the World keeps USD supported. Bullish.
Watch: JOLTs, Retail Sales.
USD will likely continue to see strength as data outperforms, and central banks elsewhere ease further. At the moment, we believe USD can strengthen even without the support of yields, as the US remains a relative growth outperformer, illustrated by the recent upward revision in GDP. We will watch to see if lower oil prices have supported retail sales.

EUR: Disappointment and Delay. Bearish.
Watch: IP.
The market had positioned for a more dovish stance at the latest ECB meeting, and the central bank failed to meet stretched expectations. As a result, we believe EURUSD could head higher in the near term. That said, we maintain our bearish medium term view. The central bank kept a dovish tone, aggressively lowering its inflation forecasts, with scope for even further downward revisions if oil prices remain soft, and explicitly mentioned it is considering further unconventional measures.

JPY: Polls Suggest Landslide Victory for Abe. Bearish.
Watch: CPI, Retail Sales, IP, Monetary Base.
Polls are suggesting that Abe will take a landslide victory in the upcoming elections, which should boost USDJPY. We remain JPY bears against USD, as we expect Abenomics to be successful, increasing the risk appetite of Japanese investors. However, should reforms progress slower than the market anticipates, JPY could outperform on the crosses. What’s more, any concerns about global risk appetite would also offer support to JPY.

GBP: GBPUSD Risks in 2015. Bearish.
Watch: IP, Trade.
We have lowered our GBPUSD forecast for 2015, due to increasing fiscal and political uncertainties. The latest OBR budget revised borrowing higher, suggesting that the UK could have to enact growth dampening austerity measures in the future. Political uncertainty could also influence foreign portfolio inflows in 2015, further adding to pressure on GBP. That said, growth is relatively robust compared to countries outside the US, so GBP could hold up on the crosses.

AUD: RBA rate expectations change. Bearish.
Watch: Home loans, Employment Change.
Despite some respite in iron ore prices, the AUD continues to decline. We remain bearish since economic indicators are weakening, such as 3Q GDP undershooting market expectations, inflation expectations are falling and subsequently rate cut expectations from the RBA are starting to be priced into next year. As market expectations for a rate cut increase this would support our bearish view. We will also be keeping an eye on commodity prices as these support bearish AUD."

و عليكم السلام و رحمة الله و بركاته

تنورنى يا بشمهندس

ده من تقرير بنك مورجان ستانلى الاسبوعى

مع الأسف الموقع الذى ينقل لا يعرض سوى نسبة قليلة جدا من البيانات بالتقرير حوالى أقل من صفحة واحدة طبعا حقوق ملكية وكده و كمان بيحتفظ بصفقات البنك المفتوحة لخدمته المدفوعة للمشتركين

ياريت الناس تاخد بالها ان المعلومات المنشورة فى مثل هكذا مواقع بتكون شبه كاملة

ممكن نقارن بين اللى جه فى التقرير الأساسى و اللى نشره الموقع

الجزء اللى نشره الموقع من التقرير




محتوى التقرير




تحيااااااااااااااااااااااتى لك و تمنياتى بمزيد من النجاح و الأرباح و الاستمرار باذن الله

فى انتظار مشاركاتك ...

[_Zeus_FX_]

أسعار العملات الأن مقارنة بسعر الاغلاق يوم الجمعة



المصدر : http://www.forexlive.com/

[_Zeus_FX_]

?Is AUD/USD Headed to 8000

Fundamentals
The Australian dollar has been on a one way trip to the cellar breaking fresh lows last week especially after the very weak GDP number that reignited concerns that the RBA may have to cut rates later in the year. This week the market will get a look at the confidence numbers and the all important employment data. If the labor numbers show a contraction the concerns about RBA easing are going to become much more intense and the pair could see more liquidation as the interest rate spread between the Aussie and the US yields compresses further. That could start a new round of stop running with the pair eventually targeting 8000 support which it has not seen in more than 4 years.
Technicals
Having made fresh lows last week the pair see no real support until the 8100-8000 level and the only reason that it may pause is because it is now grossly oversold. Only a move above 8500 relieves the downside bias

المصدر : http://www.bkforex.com/bkforex-dashboard/

[brahim.alg]

أخي زيوس أود أن أسألك بحكم خبرتك في السوق
هل أحيانا يحدث ما يسمى بالمصيدة في السوق بمعنى مثلا الجميع يتوقع هبوط اليورو الدولار، التحليلات الفنية تدعم ذلك، التحليلات الأساسية أيضا. و فجأة يحدث العكس يصعد الزوج.
هل مثلا الحيتان الكبار من الممكن أن يقوموا باغراء البائعين لكي قوموا بمزيد من البيع، و من ثم يقلبوا عليهم الطاولة.
هل حدث هذا من قبل؟ و هل يمكن أن يحدث؟

[ENG ESlAM]

صحيح المواقع اللى بستخدمها كلها مجانى و فى منها مدفوع بيدونى فكره عن توجه بعض البنوك و ارائهم ف السوق



عموما شخصيا اسبوعيا لازم اقري تعليق Wells fargo و Danske بيدينى فكره عن اللى حصال اسبوع اللى السابق و الاحداث المهمه الاسبوع الاحق.


هرفعهم فى المرفقات حتى يستفيد منه الاخوه

[ENG ESlAM]

?Is AUD/USD Headed to 8000

Fundamentals
The Australian dollar has been on a one way trip to the cellar breaking fresh lows last week especially after the very weak GDP number that reignited concerns that the RBA may have to cut rates later in the year. This week the market will get a look at the confidence numbers and the all important employment data. If the labor numbers show a contraction the concerns about RBA easing are going to become much more intense and the pair could see more liquidation as the interest rate spread between the Aussie and the US yields compresses further. That could start a new round of stop running with the pair eventually targeting 8000 support which it has not seen in more than 4 years.
Technicals
Having made fresh lows last week the pair see no real support until the 8100-8000 level and the only reason that it may pause is because it is now grossly oversold. Only a move above 8500 relieves the downside bias

المصدر : http://www.bkforex.com/bkforex-dashboard/

هستناه يصعد شويه ل .836 او .84 و اخش بيع ان شاء الله و هدفى .816 و .80

[ENG ESlAM]

Barclays' Trade Of The Week: Sell AUD/USD

Investors following tactical strategies should consider selling AUD/USD this week, advises Barclays Capital in its weekly FX pick to clients.

"Disappointing China data, continued weakness in commodity prices, narrowing Australia-US interest rate differentials and recent dovish RBA rhetoric point to further AUDUSD downside, in our view," Barclays says as a rationle behind this call.

"
Recent indirect signaling by the RBA suggests it is becoming increasingly frustrated that the AUD has not kept pace with Australia’s rapidly declining terms of trade and that it may consider cutting interest rates if AUDUSD does not fall below 80 cents by early next year," Barclays clarifies.

"
The significant dovish shift in RBA rhetoric coincides with recent disappointing Q3 GDP growth and the likely imminent announcement of macro-prudential measures to address an overheating Australian housing market. As such, our economist recently pushed back his RBA rate hike call from Q1 2015 to Q3 2015, raising downside risks to our AUDUSD forecasts," Barclays adds.




On the technical front, Barclays' technical strategists note that AUD/USD monthly close below clustered support in the 0.8440 area (cloud base and Fibo level), encouraging their bearish view.

"Given that current short (CFTC net speculator) positioning is less than 60% of the short position built in 2013, we expect further downside in the weeks ahead. A move below our initial downside targets in the 0.8315 area would confirm an extension lower towards our greater targets near 0.8065, the 2010 range lows," Barclays projects.

[_Zeus_FX_]

أخي زيوس أود أن أسألك بحكم خبرتك في السوق
هل أحيانا يحدث ما يسمى بالمصيدة في السوق بمعنى مثلا الجميع يتوقع هبوط اليورو الدولار، التحليلات الفنية تدعم ذلك، التحليلات الأساسية أيضا. و فجأة يحدث العكس يصعد الزوج.
هل مثلا الحيتان الكبار من الممكن أن يقوموا باغراء البائعين لكي قوموا بمزيد من البيع، و من ثم يقلبوا عليهم الطاولة.
هل حدث هذا من قبل؟ و هل يمكن أن يحدث؟

لا تعتد بخبرتى فى السوق و اعتبر انه ليس لدى أى خبرة

من فترة كده تناقشت مع بعض الناس من بنك كبير و وضعت تشارت لحركة سعرية هابطة قوية فى الوقت اللى كان فيه كل المؤشرات بتقول صعووود

المهم ان الناس سألونى ايه هى المؤشرات اللى بتقول صعود

رديت عليهم قولتهم على بعض المؤشرات على التشارت و شوية بيانات اقتصادية

كان ردهم ان أنا أكبر الفريم و حددوا ليا مناطق اركز عليها و قالولى على شوية بيانات اقتصادية أنا مكنتش واخد بالى منها و لما درستها سألونى اذا كانت نظرتى الأولى صح أم خطأ و كانت هناك اسباب فنية و اساسية تدعم الهبوط أكثر من الصعود .

اللى انا أقصده هى أختلاف طريقة التفكير و البيانات التى يعتمدها كل طرف فى السوق و بناء عليه بيتصرف

ده على مستوى البنوك و الافراد بمعنى ان طريقة تعامل الأفراد مع نموذج ما غير طريقة تعامل البنوك و من هنا يتوهم البعض انه حصل مصيدة لمجرد ان السعر عكس لما دخل عليه و لما يخرج السعر يرجع تانى ده لانه دخل فى منطقة ارتداد مثلا و لما لقى السعر عكسه و جه يخرج كانت نقطة دخول البنوك ...

كل شئ ممكن الحدوث

ابحث فى تاريخ البنوك هتلاقى حالات مشهورة جدا لمتداولين تبع البنوك فى الفوركس كانوا سبب افلاس البنك

[_Zeus_FX_]

صحيح المواقع اللى بستخدمها كلها مجانى و فى منها مدفوع بيدونى فكره عن توجه بعض البنوك و ارائهم ف السوق



عموما شخصيا اسبوعيا لازم اقري تعليق Wells fargo و Danske بيدينى فكره عن اللى حصال اسبوع اللى السابق و الاحداث المهمه الاسبوع الاحق.


هرفعهم فى المرفقات حتى يستفيد منه الاخوه

كفايه انك تعمل لينك بالحاجات الى بركز عليها بنك واحد بس و هتلاقى كل البنوك الباقية مركزة عليها فى الغالب

[_Zeus_FX_]

هستناه يصعد شويه ل .836 او .84 و اخش بيع ان شاء الله و هدفى .816 و .80

بالتوفيق

[_Zeus_FX_]

Barclays' Trade Of The Week: Sell AUD/USD

Investors following tactical strategies should consider selling AUD/USD this week, advises Barclays Capital in its weekly FX pick to clients.

"Disappointing China data, continued weakness in commodity prices, narrowing Australia-US interest rate differentials and recent dovish RBA rhetoric point to further AUDUSD downside, in our view," Barclays says as a rationle behind this call.

"
Recent indirect signaling by the RBA suggests it is becoming increasingly frustrated that the AUD has not kept pace with Australia’s rapidly declining terms of trade and that it may consider cutting interest rates if AUDUSD does not fall below 80 cents by early next year," Barclays clarifies.

"
The significant dovish shift in RBA rhetoric coincides with recent disappointing Q3 GDP growth and the likely imminent announcement of macro-prudential measures to address an overheating Australian housing market. As such, our economist recently pushed back his RBA rate hike call from Q1 2015 to Q3 2015, raising downside risks to our AUDUSD forecasts," Barclays adds.




On the technical front, Barclays' technical strategists note that AUD/USD monthly close below clustered support in the 0.8440 area (cloud base and Fibo level), encouraging their bearish view.

"Given that current short (CFTC net speculator) positioning is less than 60% of the short position built in 2013, we expect further downside in the weeks ahead. A move below our initial downside targets in the 0.8315 area would confirm an extension lower towards our greater targets near 0.8065, the 2010 range lows," Barclays projects.

أنا أعشق تحليل بنك باركليز و درسته كتير و اتعلمت منه اللى مش موجود فى الكتب

اضافة

لو حد متابع هنا يفتكر انى وضعت صفقة العام 2015 من بنك أوف امريكا ببيع AUDUSD و كمان صفقة 2015 من سيتى بنك بالبيع و بالاضافة لسوستيه جنرال و باركليز دلوقتى

لدينا هذا الأسبوع بيانات مهمة من الصين و الولايات المتحدة

بيانات الصين تؤثر كثيرا على الدولار الاسترالى

[_Zeus_FX_]

من تقرير بنك سى اى بى سى من لحظات

Japanese retail clients were better buyers of UsdJpy this morning. Usd rose to 121.86 then fell back to 121.55 following a weak Q3 finalised GDP number. According to our Strategist Patrick Bennett, the Japanese bank lending and personal consumption numbers have held up well and these GDP numbers are historical. The BOJ has et al, responded to signs of weakness in the Oct 31 meeting. There are options' offers ahead of 122.00. However, I heard there are decent stops at 122.15 and even more at 122.50. In the mid-morning, profit taking took the UsdJpy to 121.34.

Aussie took a knock following the weak Nov China trade numbers. Announced on state TV, Chinese Nov trade surplus was strong but imports fell 6.7% versus forecast of +3.8% and Oct’s +4.6%. Aud did a low of 0.8295 then returned to 0.83-handle. According to Patrick Bennett, the China Nov weak imports needs to be checked. This may well be result of lower prices, which is not a bad thing.

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أقرأوا الفقرة دى بتركييييييييييييييييييييييييييييييييييز

We definitely saw some profit taking activities in Euro – in the 1.2290’s. While most buying today are option related, some banks have spoken of bids in Eur sitting below 1.2250. One pointed out trendline from July 2012, which comes in at 1.2230. There are some short-term accounts looking to add to short positions above 1.2325 but stops are building up from 1.2365.
.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .........................................


Keep an eye on Greece; this will come back to haunt us with one nasty sequel. The Eurozone finance ministers are meeting today and they are going to discuss what will happen when Greece’s Eur240bn bailout program runs out at the end of the year. Greek parliament rush through Sunday night to pass the 2015-budget. It wasn’t an easy vote. According to WSJ, out of the 300 seat parliament, 155 lawmakers voted in favour of the budget with 134 opposing it, while 11 lawmakers abstained. There are disputes between Athens and the Troika over the fiscal gap including new arguments, i.e. tax buoyancy, backed by additional data.

[_Zeus_FX_]

EURGBP

جروث أيسز : أمر معلق لبيع الزوج من0.7960 وقف الخسارة 0.8020 الهدف 0.7810

[_Zeus_FX_]

تحديث الصفقات ليوم 8-12-2014

من تقرير كومارتس بنك منذ لحظات
.................................................. ...............................................
EUR/USD – very close to the 200 month ma at 1.2232

Current position: Square. Recommended trade: Attempt small longs
1.2245 – stops below 1.2225. Or sell the rally to 1.2440 – stops over
1.2450.
.................................................. ...............................................
USD/CHF – Potential wedge remains viable

Current Position: Shorts entered .9795 Recommended Trade: Leave
stops stops over .9840.Exit .9650

.................................................. ...............................................
GBP/USD – The 1.5595/92 lows are being eroded

Current trade: Shorts from 1.5720 covered 1.5605. Square.
Recommended Trade: Resell rallies to 1.5690, stop 1.5795.

.................................................. ...............................................
USD/JPY – Approaching its 14 year resistance line at 122.70

Current Position: Square Recommended Trade: Attempt small longs
120, stop 119.50 Exit 122.50.

.................................................. ...............................................
AUD/USD – market has eroded the base of its 18 month down channel at 0.8344

Current Position: Square. Recommended Trade: Attempt minor shorts
.8425, stop .8450, exit .8150.