تحليلات Fxcmtr التابعة لشركة Fxcm

[elforexeenelarab]

تأتي البيانات الاميركية جميعها في تمام الساعة 1500 ت.غ والتي تقتصر على صدور معدل البطالة لمسح جامعة ميتشيغان بالاضافة الى المؤشرات الرائدة... 1/18/2008 6:42:50 AM تأتي البيانات الاميركية جميعها في تمام الساعة 1500 ت.غ والتي تقتصر على صدور معدل البطالة لمسح جامعة ميتشيغان بالاضافة الى المؤشرات الرائدة. ومن المتوقع ان يحقق مؤشر ثقة المستهلك - ميتشيغان - هبوطا اضافيا خلال شهر يناير وصولا الى قراءة وقدرها 74.0 نقطة وذلك وسط بقاء اسعار البنزين مرتفعة وارتفاع معدل البطالة نحو 5.0%. اما المؤشرات الرائدة فيتوقع ان تهبط بنسبة 0.1% وهو الانخفاض الثالث على التوالي لها

[elforexeenelarab]

GBP/USD: تعافي الزوج ضمن قناة الهبوط

نقاط المقاومة:
- 1.9897 اعلى مستوى للزوج في 1 يناير
- 1.9825 1% مغلف المتوسط الحسابي
- 1.9790 اعلى مستوى للزوج في 17 يناير
- 1.9740 مستوى سعر المتوسط الحسابي 21 وهو ايضا اعلى مستوى للزوج في 15 يناير

المستوى الحالي: 1.9681

نقاط الدعم:
- 1.9484/90 ادنى مستوى للزوج في 11 يناير بالاضافة الى كونه يمثل القاع الحالي لخط بولينغر اليومي
- 1.9435 1% مغلف المتوسط الحسابي
- 1.9287 قاع قناة 9 نوفمبر
- 1.9260 2% مغلف المتوسط الحسابي

[elforexeenelarab]

GBPJPY Low at 207...Next Stop 217? Thursday, 17 January 2008 20:55:45 GMT Written by Jamie Saettele, Currency Analyst It appears that wave 3 within the 5 wave decline from 230.33 is complete or nearly so. Therefore, expectations are for larger a corrective setback in wave 4 to end near 217.31 (former 4th wave extreme). However, an extension lower is certainly a possibility so trading from the long side is risky. Very short term, a drop below 209.42 could complete an expanded flat. Potential support would be at the 61.8% of 107.01-211.99 at 208.91.
*No warranties or guarantees are made with respect to the content contained herein. The website and the guests on this site do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The advice and trading ideas provided on this website are for informational purposes only and are not intended as a trading ideas. Under no circumstances does any advice or trading idea contained herein constitute a solicitation to buy and sell currencies. We do not endorse and cannot vouch for any of the guest traders on this site.

[elforexeenelarab]

EURUSD: Bulls on Parade Thursday, 17 January 2008 14:13:47 GMT Written by Jamie Saettele, Currency Analyst
*No warranties or guarantees are made with respect to the content contained herein. The website and the guests on this site do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The advice and trading ideas provided on this website are for informational purposes only and are not intended as a trading ideas. Under no circumstances does any advice or trading idea contained herein constitute a solicitation to buy and sell currencies. We do not endorse and cannot vouch for any of the guest traders on this site.

[elforexeenelarab]

Further BoE Cuts And Pound Losses May Hinge On UK Consumer Spending Thursday, 17 January 2008 22:08:55 GMT Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Analyst Trading the News: UK Retail Sales
What’s Expected
Time of release: 01/18/2008 09:30 GMT, 04:30 EST
Primary Pair Impact : GBPUSD
Expected: 0.2%
Previous: 0.4%




How To Trade This Event Risk
The British pound has come to a cross roads. Technically, the currency has sold off sharply over the past few months, leading the unit to touch a 10-month low against its US counterpart and potentially shifting sentiment to an oversold reading around 1.9500. On the other hand, the economic picture continues to deteriorate and the markets are increasingly speculating on another BoE rate cut in February. Though, after the January meeting, when the MPC voted to keep the overnight lending rate unchanged at 5.50 percent to monitor the effects of its previous easing, the timing for the next quarter point cut was given more leeway. The next move by the central bank will most likely be determined by growth trends as consumer-level inflation is right around target. A number of the economy’s major sectors already threaten to cool growth, so the burden to secure expansion and stave off further monetary easing has been transferred onto the shoulders of the consumer. Domestic spending makes up the bulk of the economy, so a slip there could quickly wind GDP. Looking at the most recent round of consumer-related data, there is evidence to suggest spending trends held steady and that it has slowed. For bulls, unemployment has dropped to the lowest level since 1975 and wage growth continues. On the other hand, the costs of living and lending have risen and consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level in 12 years – while plans to make major purchases is at 16 year lows.
Considering the mounting speculation that economic growth if flagging and the next MPC rate cut is just around the corner, a strong retail sales read could generate the necessary event-driven momentum needed to finally pull GBPUSD out of its declines. The surprise factor would be even greater after the BRC’s version of the sales report marked its weakest increase in consumption trends since March of 2006 and the worst holiday shopping season since 2004. Looking back over the previous three sales releases, it is clear that this indicator is a notable market mover with even modest divergences from expectations. Nevertheless, we will look for an upside surprise of at least 0.3 percentage points as a fundamental signal for a long position. With the right fundamental back drop, we will look for a green, five minute candle to confirm entry on a long of two lots GBPUSD. The initial stop will be set at the swing low (or reasonable distance) and the first target will be set equal to this risk. The second target will be based on discretion. To preserve our profit, we will move the stop on the second lot to break even when the first lot hits its target.
With speculation for a considerable cooling in growth trends and a forthcoming BoE rate cut, a drop in consumer spending may finally remove support from the pound. We will look for a negative sales number and follow the same strategy as above, just in reverse.


*No warranties or guarantees are made with respect to the content contained herein. The website and the guests on this site do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The advice and trading ideas provided on this website are for informational purposes only and are not intended as a trading ideas. Under no circumstances does any advice or trading idea contained herein constitute a solicitation to buy and sell currencies. We do not endorse and cannot vouch for any of the guest traders on this site.

[elforexeenelarab]

SSI: EUR/USD Short Positions are 10% Lower on Profit Taking Wednesday, 16 January 2008 17:36:42 GMT Written by Antonio Sousa, Quantitative Strategies Analyst

quote
ratio
%long
signal

EURUSD
1.46529
-1.44
41%
Bullish
GBPUSD
1.95919
1.30
57%
Bearish
USDJPY
107.264
1.53
61%
Bearish
USDCHF
1.09981
1.32
57%
Bearish
USDCAD
1.02466
2.16
68%
Bearish
AUDUSD
0.87797
1.50
60%
Bearish
NZDUSD
0.77046
-1.49
40%
Bullish

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.44 as nearly 59% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.68 as 63% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 3.8% higher than yesterday and 0.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 10.6% lower than yesterday and 14.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.2% weaker than yesterday and 4.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.30 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.51 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.9% lower than yesterday and 9.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.9% higher than yesterday and 1.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.0% weaker than yesterday and 8.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.53 as nearly 61% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.96 as 66% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 13.8% lower than yesterday and 7.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 10.3% higher than yesterday and 10.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.7% weaker than yesterday and 1.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 1.31 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.53 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 13.2% lower than yesterday and 9.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.8% higher than yesterday and 6.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 7.7% weaker than yesterday and 6.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.16 as nearly 68% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.88 as 65% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.5% higher than yesterday and 4.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 12.7% lower than yesterday and 10.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.1% weaker than yesterday and 3.5% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 1.49 as nearly 60% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.63 as 62% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 17.4% lower than yesterday and 23.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 9.7% lower than yesterday and 2.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 14.5% weaker than yesterday and 9.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD losses.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.49 as nearly 60% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.52 as 60% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 5.1% lower than yesterday and 30.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.2% lower than yesterday and 1.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.4% weaker than yesterday and 15.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For information on an FXCM Managed Account that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Program at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.
*No warranties or guarantees are made with respect to the content contained herein. The website and the guests on this site do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The advice and trading ideas provided on this website are for informational purposes only and are not intended as a trading ideas. Under no circumstances does any advice or trading idea contained herein constitute a solicitation to buy and sell currencies. We do not endorse and cannot vouch for any of the guest traders on this site.

[elforexeenelarab]

توصية بيع الاسترالى من السعر الحالى وهدف لايقل عن 50 نقطة
الاستوب 0.8805

[elforexeenelarab]

توصية شراء اليورو الان
الهدف مفتوح
الاستوب 1.4585

[elforexeenelarab]

Date: 2008/01/18Time: 08:20 (GMT +1)Ticker: GBPJPYLast: 210.82Pivot: 209.511st sup.209.512nd sup.208.83rd sup.2081st res.211.52nd res.212.53rd res.213.5Title: GBP/JPY intraday: on ther upsideSummary: Update on supports and resistances.Story: Pivot: 209.51

Our preference: Long positions above 209.51 with targets @ 211.5 & 212.5 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 209.51 look for further downside with 208.8 & 208 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is supported by a MT rising trend line, the pair is approaching its resistance.

[elforexeenelarab]

Date: 2008/01/18Time: 08:26 (GMT +1)Ticker: NZDLast: 0.7669Pivot: 0.7621st sup.0.7622nd sup.0.75923rd sup.0.7551st res.0.76952nd res.0.77153rd res.0.776Title: NZD/USD intraday: Shaping a V-bottomSummary: Update on supports and resistances.Story: Pivot: 0.762

Our preference: Long positions above 0.762 with targets @ 0.7695 & 0.7715 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 0.762 look for further downside with 0.7592 & 0.755 as targets.

Comment: the 30-min RSI is bullish.

[ابن الهيثم]

أين التحليلات يا جماعة الخير , عودتمونا على كرمكم فلا تقطعونا جزاكم الله خيراً

[سمير صيام]

أين التحليلات يا جماعة الخير , عودتمونا على كرمكم فلا تقطعونا جزاكم الله خيراً

انا منتظر ان الاخ يقولى كمل لكن هو لم يعلق على كلامى فقلت هو هيقوم بالواجب
ان شاء الله المانع خير

[ابن الهيثم]

إن شاء الله .

[elforexeenelarab]

Date: 2008/02/08Time: 09:41 (GMT +1)Ticker: EURLast: 1.4474Pivot: 1.4551st sup.1.4452nd sup.1.443rd sup.1.43661st res.1.4552nd res.1.45883rd res.1.4607Title: EUR/USD intraday: challenging its supportSummary: Update on supports and resistances.Story: Pivot: 1.455

Our preference: Short positions below 1.455 with targets @ 1.445 & 1.44 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.455 look for further upside with 1.4588 & 1.4607 as targets.

Comments: the pair is on the downside and challenging its support, the RSI is mixed.

[elforexeenelarab]

Date: 2008/02/08Time: 09:44 (GMT +1)Ticker: JPYLast: 107.69Pivot: 107.11st sup.107.12nd sup.106.853rd sup.106.651st res.107.832nd res.108.253rd res.108.57Title: USD/JPY intraday: approaching its resistanceSummary: Update on supports and resistances.Story: Pivot: 107.1

Our preference: Long positions above 107.1 with targets @ 107.83 & 108.25 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 107.1 look for further downside with 106.85 & 106.65 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is turning up, the pair is approaching its resistance level.