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  1. 15-01-2008, 09:21 PM #4006
    الصورة الرمزية elforexeenelarab
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    افتراضي رد: تحليلات Fxcmtr التابعة لشركة Fxcm

    Date: 2008/01/15Time: 16:42 (GMT +1)Ticker: EURCHFLast: 1.6185Pivot: 1.62251st sup.1.61752nd sup.1.6153rd sup.1.61251st res.1.62252nd res.1.6263rd res.1.63Title: EUR/CHF intraday: bearish biasSummary: Update on supports and resistances.Story: Pivot: 1.6225

    Our preference: Short positions below 1.6225 with targets @ 1.6175 & 1.615 in extension.

    Alternative scenario: Above 1.6225 look for further upside with 1.626 & 1.63 as targets.

    Comment: the pair is challenging its MT bearish channel lower boundary, the RSI is mixed.
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  2. 15-01-2008, 09:22 PM #4007
    الصورة الرمزية elforexeenelarab
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    افتراضي رد: تحليلات Fxcmtr التابعة لشركة Fxcm

    Date: 2008/01/15Time: 16:40 (GMT +1)Ticker: EURGBPLast: 0.7542Pivot: 0.75691st sup.0.75352nd sup.0.7523rd sup.0.74991st res.0.75692nd res.0.75893rd res.0.7608Title: EUR/GBP intraday: further weaknessSummary: Update on supports and resistances.Story: Pivot: 0.7569

    Our preference: Short positions below 0.7569 with targets @ 0.7535 & 0.752 in extension.

    Alternative scenario: Above 0.7569 look for further upside with 0.7589 & 0.7608 as targets.

    Comment: the pair has broken below its support and should face a further drop as the RSI remains bearish.
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  3. 15-01-2008, 09:23 PM #4008
    الصورة الرمزية elforexeenelarab
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    افتراضي رد: تحليلات Fxcmtr التابعة لشركة Fxcm

    2008 Currency Forecasts
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  4. 15-01-2008, 09:24 PM #4009
    الصورة الرمزية elforexeenelarab
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    افتراضي رد: تحليلات Fxcmtr التابعة لشركة Fxcm

    EUR/USD 2008 Outlook

    Monday, 31 December 2007 15:29:12 GMT

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    Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist
    Selling US dollars was one of the best trades of 2007. Since the beginning of the year, the dollar has fallen as much as 13 percent against the Euro, 10 percent against the Japanese Yen and 8.5 percent against the British pound. The story of the dollar’s weakness also captured headlines around the world. It became so pronounced that supermodel Gisele announced her preference for being paid in Euros over dollars while rapper Jay-Z flashed Euros and not dollars in his new music video. Everyone from our barbers to our bartenders has been asking us when the US dollar will bottom and just when that happened – the dollar’s slide came to a screeching halt. The question now is will the turn in the dollar last or will the weakness resume in the coming year?

    Tell Us Where You Think the EUR/USD is Headed in 2008 on the DailyFX Forum.

    Recoupling Could Mean the End to Dollar Weakness

    Before exploring the outlook for the US dollar in 2008, it is important to understand that decoupling in the global economy was a primary factor for the dollar’s weakness in 2007. As US growth slowed, growth in the rest of the world remained resilient thanks to the demand from countries like China, India and the Middle East. When the US began to ease interest rates in August, many central banks in countries such like Australia continued to raise rates since growth was steady enough for them to focus on tackling inflation. In fact, up until the Bank of England’s and Bank of Canada’s interest rate cut in December, the US was the only central bank to cut interest rates in 2007. This decoupling of growth was one of the main factors that led to the out performance of the Euro, Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars, against the US dollar last year.

    As we enter 2008, we are beginning to see recoupling in the global economy. In second half of last year, the expansion in the UK and Canada began to slow materially as economic data weakened, indicating that these countries were no longer resilient to weaker US growth. The ripple effects of the US subprime crisis has impacted many countries, especially the UK, who has relied on housing, finance and the public sector for growth over the past few years. Chinks in the armor are also beginning to show in the Eurozone despite the central bank’s persistently hawkish monetary policy stance. If growth slows even further in the US or the other countries, the central banks that have been reluctant to ease rates last year may be forced to do so. The UK for example has already cut rates and they are expected to again in 2008. These are where the surprise elements lie for the currency market because the Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates by 100bp this past year. Another rate cut from them will not be much of a surprise, but if the Eurozone begins to cut interest rates as well, it would mark a significant shift in monetary policy, which in turn could result in a major shift to the outlook for the currency.

    US: Recession or No Recession?

    Global growth in 2008 is also dependent upon whether the US economy falls into a recession, which will be the big debate of 2008. Over half of the American public believes that we are already in a recession according to a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released in December. This view is shared by Pimco’s Bill Gross who thinks that we fell into a recession in December and that it should last for the next four to five months. Economists however beg to differ. Out of 54 economists surveyed by Business Week in December, only 2 expect the US economy to fall into a recession. As a group, they believe that on average, the US economy will grow by 2.1 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the end of 2008 versus 2.6 percent growth in 2007. This does not mean that times may not be difficult in 2008, especially in the first half of the year because even though consumer spending is not stopping, it is certainly slowing. The labor market has held steady, while average hourly earnings have increased. Even though energy prices are high, the threat of $100 oil is easing. The forecast that the US economy will not fall into a recession is predicated on the belief that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates. We still expect more losses in the subprime sector and the Federal Reserve’s commitment to easing will be needed to help restore confidence. Realistically, no one expects the problems in the credit market to just disappear, but if the Fed is on the case, then the US economy has a good chance of recovering next year.

    How Much More Easing Can We Expect from the Federal Reserve?

    The only question is how much more easing can we expect from the Federal Reserve. Each rate cut that the Fed has given to the markets in 2007 has been a reluctant one. It seems that they only deliver exactly what has been priced in and nothing more. There is a good reason for that of course, which is inflation. Like the central banks in the rest of the world, the Fed has to make sure that inflation does not get out of hand. The double whammy of high energy prices and a weaker dollar has made the problem an even bigger issue for the US central bank. We expect another 25 to 50bp of easing, but interest rates are not the Fed’s only option. Unless oil prices drop back down to $50 a barrel, they will need to be more creative. The Term Auction Facility introduced by the Federal Reserve last month is one of those methods. The primary problem lies in LIBOR rates which have remained stubbornly high; there were days in December where Treasuries recorded their biggest one day rally in 3 years. Central banks have also extended their loans for Wall Street dealers to attempt to improve credit conditions. Lowering the discount rate is also possible, but with the Fed fund’s rate specifically, their options could be limited.

    Don’t Underestimate Sovereign Wealth Funds

    Sovereign wealth funds are also coming to the rescue. Banks across Wall Street have reported major losses this year and the only thing that has stopped the stock market from collapsing are the bailouts from sovereign wealth funds. Although these funds have existed since the 1950s, their total size has increased dramatically in the past decade. In 1990, the total size of the funds where estimated to be $500 billion, but today, it is estimated to be $3 trillion. Just between the U.A.E, Singapore, Norway, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and China, there is as much as $2 trillion to spend – and they are already spending it. Just in the last two months of 2007, Singapore’s state owned Temasek holdings announced a $4.4 billion investment in Merrill Lynch, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority bought a $7.5 billion stake in Citigroup while the China Investment Corp made a $5 billion investment into Morgan Stanley. The capital of these funds is expected to grow to as much as $12 trillion over the next eight years. Where does this money come from? Foreign Exchange reserves and natural resources. The investments by the government sponsored funds have played a major role in helping the US dollar recover in the fourth quarter and even though these trends could receive backlash from Congress, we expect it to continue.

    How Could the 2008 Presidential Elections Impact the Financial Markets

    2008 is also an Election Year. Historically, a Republican leadership has been more bullish for the dollar than a Democratic leadership. This will of course depend upon how close the elections will be in 2008. The general belief is that Republicans are more business friendly while Democrats are more apt to raise taxes. According to the Stock Traders Almanac, election years are also modestly positive for US stocks. Since the 1950, the S&P500 has only had one loss in the last seven months of an election year. Also, “In the last 50 years, election years have ended lower twice in 11 occurrences with an average Dow gain of 9.2%. Over the same 50 years, 15 bear markets have occurred. Four (1960, 1968, 1976 and 2000) have commenced in an election year. Just three (1960, 1980 and 1984) have ended in election years.”

    The Impact of a Strong Euro Surprises Everyone

    Meanwhile the fate of the EURUSD is also dependent on the outlook for the Eurozone. In a year where the ECB raised interest rates by 50bp while the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 100bp, there is no wonder why the EURUSD rose to an all time high of 1.4968. Throughout the past year, the fear and belief in the markets was that the strong Euro would take a major toll on the region’s economy, but it did not. Instead, growth remained strong as Germany’s trade surplus climbed to a record high in month of October thanks to an unexpected rise in exports. Even though exports to the US dropped, demand from within the Eurozone and emerging markets like China helped to fuel growth. Having learned the lessons of being under hedged when the EURUSD hit a high of 1.36 in 2004, many Eurozone corporations have done a much better job of hedging foreign exchange risk in 2007. In order to mitigate the impact of a weakening dollar, many corporations have also taken measures to produce more locally. Although there are still companies that have been affected by the strength of the Euro like Airbus who called the currency’s appreciation “life threatening,” growth in the overall region was much than the market expected last year.

    Eurozone Growth Beginning to Slow

    However as we enter 2008, Eurozone growth is beginning to slow. German business confidence fell to a 2 year low amidst concerns that higher borrowing costs, tight credit markets and rising inflation could take a toll on the economy. In fact, the European Commission and the European Central Bank both believe that growth will be slower than their initial forecasts. The ECB no longer argues that the Eurozone can remain completely immune to the US business cycle. Their recent liquidity injections are proof that this is no longer the case. In fact, the last Eurozone consumer spending, manufacturing and service sector PMI numbers released in 2007 all reported deterioration from the prior month. If the ECB continues to refuse to lower interest rates, then we could see a serious slowdown in 2008.

    Is an ECB Rate Hike Really Possible?

    Up until the very end of 2007, ECB President Trichet reminded the markets that the central bank is hawkish and will do all that it takes to make sure there is no second round inflation effects. He also clarified that their desire to contain inflation will not be distracted by the interest rate cuts from the UK and the US. As a central bank that focuses heavily on price stability, the fact that inflation has breached their 2 percent target in the second half of the year raised red flags. Since then, they have done nothing but threaten the markets with higher interest rates. Yet, the last time the ECB raised rates was in June, leading many people to wonder whether they are all talk and no action. In fact, even though they haven’t touched interest rates, their massive liquidity injections suggest that at the moment their actions favor looser monetary policy. In early December, 3 month Euro LIBOR rates hit 6 year highs while sterling 1 month LIBOR rates hit 9 year highs. When the rates refused to come down, the ECB was forced to add $500 billion into the banking system. For the time being, this seems to have worked but it still remains questionable as to how long low LIBOR rates will last. Therefore even though a rate hike is possible, it is not probable. In fact, we could see a rate cut from the ECB before a rate hike, but this will be dependent upon inflation. If we see $100 oil again, then the central bank will not hesitate to raise rates, just as they have warned throughout 2007. If inflation remains at current levels or begins to cool, then a rate cut before a rate hike is more likely.

    Key Points

    Interest rates are the primary driver of currency market fluctuations and that will remain the case in 2008. The recovery of the US economy and the US dollar in the second half of the year will be contingent upon further easing by the Federal Reserve and easing by the European Central Bank. However even if the ECB is unable to ease rates, if they shift their monetary policy from hawkish to neutral or dovish, that may be enough to trigger a recovery in the US dollar in the second half of the year. Recoupling is not something that happens overnight, we expect this trend to begin manifesting itself in the second or third quarter of 2008. In the meantime, it may be interesting to some traders that the dollar tends to strengthen in the month of January according to our Seasonality Study. The major shift in the markets that everyone has been hoping for will happen when we stop hearing bad news and start hearing some good news - banks need to take all of their off balance sheet losses now and stop delaying them if they want the global economy to recover.

    EURUSD Technical Outlook: A Major Burst before a Turn – By Jamie Saettele
    Last quarter, we called for a rally to 1.4580 and then a top and reversal. As the pattern has evolved, so has our outlook. In the technicals, we focused recently on 1.4309 as a potential terminus for wave iv (within the 5 wave rally from 1.3261) of larger 3 (within the 5 wave rally from 1.2865). Wave v of 3 should exceed 1.4967 over the next month or so. An objective is at 1.5364, which is the 61.8% extension of i through iii. COT data supports an aggressive bullish bias over the next few weeks (at least) as both Euro bearish sentiment extremes and USD bullish sentiment extremes have recently been registered. This rally could extend towards 1.6000. Currencies have a tendency to sport 5th wave extensions which is consistent with a blow-off top, which happens so often in the currency and commodity markets (currency really is a commodity anyway). As always, the form of the pattern is the most important aspect when determining when a rally or decline is coming to an end so keep abreast of the current pattern (as well as high probability entry and exit points) by checking the daily technicals.


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  5. 15-01-2008, 09:26 PM #4010
    الصورة الرمزية elforexeenelarab
    elforexeenelarab
    elforexeenelarab غير متواجد حالياً عضو المتداول العربي
    تاريخ التسجيل
    Jun 2007
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    41
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    440

    افتراضي رد: تحليلات Fxcmtr التابعة لشركة Fxcm

    USD/JPY 2008 Outlook

    Monday, 31 December 2007 15:40:48 GMT

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    Written by Boris Schlossberg, Senior Currency Strategist
    In the fourth quarter of 2007 the Japanese yen enjoyed its best performance against the greenback in more than 2 years. For a time USDJPY even dropped below the psychologically critical 110 barrier before recovering by year end. Yen strength however was driven strictly by risk aversion dynamics rather than by any improvement in Japan’s economic fundamentals. In fact if anything Japan’s economy deteriorated materially as the quarter progressed putting any notion of a BOJ rate hike on hold for at least the first quarter of 2008 and perhaps even further beyond into the first half of next year. However, as has been the case for most of the year, traders ignored the economic news from the land of the rising sun and focused strictly on risk aversion / risk assumption dynamics. Thus as the secondary vestiges of the credit crunch spread through the system, with many US financial players reporting additional losses, USDJPY declined on risk aversion flow. Looking forward to 2008, the pair is likely to follow a similar path, but with a decidedly more bearish bias, as the relentless lowering or US interest rates by the Fed has removed most of the luster from the USDJPY carry trade. While the yen remains relatively weak against other high yielders such as the euro, New Zealand and Australian dollars, it has strengthened significantly against the greenback since its lows in June when USDJPY reached 124.00. While the Dow is only marginally off its highs suggesting relatively healthy risk appetite, USDJPY now finds itself more than 1000 points lower as interest rate differentials continue to compress. With the Fed expected to continue its easing cycle, the downward arch of the pair is likely to extend into 2008. In short, the movements of USDJPY next year will be determined almost exclusively by the events out of the US, irrespective of the Japanese fundamentals. In order to understand the reasons for this dynamic we must examine the moribund state of the Japanese economy more closely.

    Tell Us Where You Think the USD/JPY is Headed in 2008 on the DailyFX Forum.

    Consumer in the Dumps

    Perhaps nothing better demonstrates the weak state of the Japanese economy than the woeful readings of the Eco Watchers survey. This “man-in-the-street” poll of barbers, taxi drivers and waiters is our favorite gauge of Japanese consumer sentiment because it captures the up to the minute spending habits of millions of Japanese consumers. Lately its message has been unambiguously dour. In December the survey dropped to 38.8 – its lowest reading in four years as it sank ever deeper below the 50 contraction/expansion line. The news from the Eco watchers suggests that Japanese consumer confidence will remain low for the foreseeable future. Wrecked by political scandal over the mis-handling of the country’s pension plan, the ignominious exit of the former Prime Minister Abe and the persistent contraction in Labor cash earnings, the Japanese consumer is unlikely to serve as the engine of growth for the country’s economy in the foreseeable future. In fact, this consumer weakness has weighed on the Japanese service sector as the country’s Tertiary Index contracted 2 out of the past 3 months, with the latest reading showing a significant -1.6% drop.

    Economic Growth Wanes

    Yet services are not the only soft spot in the Japanese economy. While the country’s mighty industrial sector continues to chug along, aided by strong global growth and favorable exchange rate differentials, Q3 GDP still managed to miss its mark badly. The world's second-largest economy grew at an annualized 1.5% rate in the three months ended Sept. 30 2007 versus 2.6% projected as spending on factories and equipment fell in the quarter, and profits fell for the first time in five years. The news going forward is not expected to be much better with Q4 GDP likely to maintain the anemic sub 2% pace as export demand from US slows. The country’s most important economic survey - the TANKAN - printed at its lowest level in 2 years as energy woes and higher currency exchange rates depressed manufacturer’s outlook. While Japan continues to accumulate massive trade surpluses, the country’s export oriented structure is clearly showing its weaknesses as the economy remains vulnerable to a US slowdown while unable to generate sufficient consumer demand at home to resuscitate growth.

    BOJ – On Hold Irrespective of Rhetoric

    In a recent speech the BOJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui referenced Japan’s consistently ultra low interest rates when he said that, “As these very accommodative financial conditions persist, we could see a distortion in the allocation of resources in the long term that could hurt the prospects for lasting growth.'' While Governor Fukui’s intentions to keep currency traders on their toes are commendable, the fact of the matter is that given the dismal state of current Japanese economic conditions, his options are limited. While Japanese monetary officials clearly want to keep the prospect of higher rates alive, the central bank is unlikely to make any tightening moves in the first quarter irrespective of any tough rhetoric. The markets of course sense this reality and as a result Japanese bond yields have been pushed lower. Five year JGB’s slipped below the 1.00% mark yielding as little as 99 basis points in light of the disappointing economic news. Little wonder then that domestic demand for higher yielding currencies is likely to persist as Japanese retail investors continue to seek more favorable returns overseas. However, this demand will not translate into major appreciation in USDJPY as US rates are expected to contract further, but it may instead provide strong support for those currencies whose yields are expected to rise or at least remain stationary. To that end the popular carry pairs of NZDJPY and AUDJPY are likely to appreciate far more than USDJPY if appetite for risk remains constructive.


    EURJPY – Risk Aversion vs. Risk Assumption

    All throughout 2007 EURJPY has been the poster child for risk in the capital markets. As the predominant carry trade in the currency market it rose and fell with the gyrations of the Dow. During the sharp bout of risk aversion in August and then again in November, the pair dropped by more than 1000 points each time, but quickly regained its footing and recovered most of its losses. One of the key reasons for the pair’s resiliency has been the consistently disparate monetary policy of the ECB and the BOJ. As we have already noted the BOJ has been dormant since February of 2007 while the ECB has been relentlessly hawkish, raising rates to 4% by the end of the year. In fact, were it not for the sub-prime blowup in US and the concomitant credit crunch that it created in the global capital markets, the ECB would have very likely raised rates at its last meeting in December. Even in an environment when the Fed has been cutting aggressively and the BoE decided to reduce rates as well, ECB has remained resolutely hawkish, warning the markets about the risk of rising price pressures. As we noted in our analysis of the post ECB press conference, “The message from President Trichet was essentially, “Don’t mess with us.” Mr. Trichet focused squarely on price pressures burbling up in the EZ economy, ignoring the possible dangers of weak consumer spending, suggesting that the ECB was willing to buck the global monetary trend of easing and would hike rates if necessary in Q1. “ It is precisely this dynamic that could lead to further gains for the pair in Q1 of 2008. However, the case for the long EURJPY argument will rest squarely on the ability of global economy to continue expanding at 3% rate or better. Should global growth continue, it will provide support for equities and in turn enhance risk appetite. It will also enable the ECB to tighten rates further much as most European monetary authorities are inclined to do. Therefore, a positive equity environment and further expansion of interest rate differentials would almost certainly fuel more gain in EURJPY. However, if global growth suddenly slows and US begins to teeter on the edge of a recession, the decline in EURJPY could turn vicious. If markets suddenly become risk averse, the flow towards yen as the carry trade is unwound, it could quickly take EURJPY to 150 and perhaps even lower. This risk remains the operative factor in determining the direction of the pair as we enter 2008.

    Key Points

    If 2007 was the year of the carry, as USDJPY reached a multi year high of 124.00, 2008 may very well be the year of the unwind. Despite the lackluster Japanese fundamentals, the directional bias in the pair appears to be skewed to the downside as the relentless compression in interest rate differentials engineered by the Fed has made the carry trade less and less attractive as time goes on. The decline in USDJPY may be further exacerbated by any sharp sell off in equities. If the slowdown scenario comes to fruition and Dow Jones industrial Average plummets to 12,000 or below USDJPY, could easily pierce the psychologically critical 100 barrier as risk aversion grips the currency market. With the BOJ handcuffed by weak fundamentals from raising rates anytime soon, the direction in the pair in 2008 will be driven almost exclusively by US economic news and by the Federal Reserve.

    USDJPY Technical Outlook: A Potential Test of 100 – By Jamie Saettele

    Last quarter, we wrote that “the USDJPY may have completed a 12 year correction in the form of a triangle at 124.13. The pair should be on its way towards the base of the triangle at 101.26.” Price action over the last 3 months reinforces the bearish bias. In fact, the USDJPY may be entering a 3rd of a 3rd wave down, which means that the decline should accelerate. The decline from 124.13 can be counted as a series of 1st and 2nd waves. The rally from 107.20 was a 3 wave rally, which is corrective. Risk of a larger, more complex rally is possible, but price must remain below 117.93 in order for the bearish bias to remain intact. With the minimum target not until about 100.00, reward/risk still favors bears.

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  6. 15-01-2008, 09:27 PM #4011
    الصورة الرمزية elforexeenelarab
    elforexeenelarab
    elforexeenelarab غير متواجد حالياً عضو المتداول العربي
    تاريخ التسجيل
    Jun 2007
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    41
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    افتراضي رد: تحليلات Fxcmtr التابعة لشركة Fxcm

    GBP/USD 2008 Outlook

    Monday, 31 December 2007 15:48:21 GMT

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    Written by David Rodriguez, Currency Analyst
    The British Pound saw an incredible reversal to end the year’s trade, as one of the darlings of global currency markets quickly turned into a primary victim of subprime-linked financial market duress. Indeed, the GBP initially scaled 26-year heights at $2.1160 before plummeting to its lowest in four months to end the year’s trading. The currency had initially rallied on hopes that the Bank of England would continue to raise domestic interest rates through the medium term, but increasingly poor financial market conditions and falling inflation levels allowed the central bank to actually cut rates for the first time in over two years. One of the clearest turning points for the GBP came when expectations shifted in favor of falling interest rates through the medium term. The chart below shows that the GBPUSD topped when yields on the 2-year Government bond fell below that of the 10-year issue. Such a yield curve inversion shows that markets expect that yields may continue to fall below their longer-term average through the coming two years, and it is relatively little surprise that the GBP would suffer on the yield curve inversion.

    Overall momentum clearly remains to the downside for the British Pound, but subsequent outlook is likely dependent on the fallout from financial market difficulty and developments in the domestic economy. Namely, markets will look to see whether the UK housing market will suffer the same fate as its US counterpart through 2008, while traders will be keen to note overall implications for domestic interest rates. The domestic economy may also be particularly hard-hit by financial market troubles, as London represents a major hub for world financial institutions. Whether or not the UK economy can weather the storm will be the key question in 2008, but the outlook currently remains dim for the previously high-flying British Pound.

    Tell Us Where You Think the GBP/USD is Headed in 2008 on the DailyFX Forum.


    Bank of England Interest Rates: Where are Rates Headed Next?

    The Bank of England forced a major shift in Sterling sentiment when they cut rates in December, and it remains relatively clear that they are likely to cut further through 2008. It is difficult to say exactly how many rate cuts are priced into interest rate futures, as general financial market duress has created significant risk premiums that distort interbank lending rates. Yet it is precisely this tightness in interbank lending rates that has given the Bank of England more freedom in cutting its short-term policy rate. Given an official short-term BoE policy rate of 5.50 percent, the 1-month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) currently trades at 6.50 percent—a whopping 100 basis point spread. These are the worst levels in over 15 years, and such elevated market borrowing rates truly underline the difficulty surrounding credit availability. Through the statement following the Bank of England’s December 6 rate cut, officials claimed, “conditions in financial markets have deteriorated and a tightening in the supply of credit to households and businesses is in train, posing downside risks to the outlook for both output and inflation further ahead.” Indeed, continued difficulty for fallen market titan Northern Rock bank underlines financial institutions’ relative inability to cope with lending market illiquidity.

    Bank of England rhetoric makes it clear that the authority does not intend to solve all credit and lending market duress through its official Bank Rate. Yet existing monetary conditions are clearly tighter than their 5.50 percent target aims to establish—arguably giving the bank ample room to cut its policy rate in order to achieve its monetary policy objectives. The Bank of England’s formal mandate dictates that it must keep the domestic inflation rate at the central bank’s target of 2.0 percent on a year-over-year basis. As such, officials will clearly react to any indications that price pressures will rise above or fall below such a measure. Recent inflationary readings suggests that the Bank may have some leeway in this regard, as year-over-year Consumer Price Index growth has hovered around the 2.0 percent mark. Yet the bank will be sure to watch for signs that inflationary pressures will increase through the medium term. In the meantime, dovish BoE rhetoric definitely supports such a muted interest rate outlook, but there remain key risks to the rate cut scenario. Namely, it will be important to watch whether the fallout from financial market duress and a looming housing market downturn will be enough to stem short-term price pressures in the UK economy.

    Housing market and financial market layoffs pose major risks to UK consumption rates

    Real estate market growth forced major gains in UK consumption rates through 2007, but a looming downturn and the clear possibility of substantial fallout from financial market woes threatens to derail such spending trends. According to Rightmove Plc, average asking price for homes across the UK fell a whopping 3.2 percent through the month of December—the largest fall in the survey’s five-year record. Such a large and unexpected decline puts a damper outlook for the previously high-flying sector, and some economists now claim that the UK economy may experience a housing recession similar to that of the US. In a likewise similar note to the problems currently facing the US labor market, UK financial firms may look to shed jobs to cut costs in the face of a widespread shortage of cash. It is difficult to predict with any certainty the net effect that this will have on broader consumption trends, but the days of outsized financial bonuses and abundant job opportunities are clearly past. This may likewise affect real estate trends—especially in London, where financial payouts were reportedly responsible for much of house price inflation. As house prices look to fall, the availability of house equity withdrawals will go with them—limiting a key source of disposable income through years past.

    Outlook for Bank of England Interest Rates Stands in Contrast to European Central Bank

    The British Pound’s fast-shrinking yield differential against the euro has sent the EURGBP to record-highs through year-end trade, and overall momentum clearly favors further euro gains. Expectations for further Bank of England rate cuts have probably been the main driver for EURGBP rallies—especially as the European Central Bank looks to leave rates unchanged through the medium term. Subsequent outlook for the Euro-Sterling exchange rate will depend on developments for each respective central bank. As it currently stands, the scales certainly tip in the euro’s favor. Of course, quite a bit can change within a short time frame. Any risks that the Bank of England will not continue cutting interest rates could easily lift the Pound and take the EURGBP lower. At the same time, any noteworthy shifts in European Central Bank interest rate expectations could easily sink the euro against major counterparts. Such an ECB shift seems unlikely given continued hawkish rhetoric from key officials—especially as inflation levels remain at or above official targets of 2.0 percent for the broader euro area. If there are no significant changes to the status quo, it seems that risks remain further to the upside for the high-flying EURGBP currency pair.

    Key Points

    Outlook and overall momentum remains bearish for the British Pound, but whether or not the currency may continue to decline will depend on several key factors. Indeed, developments in the GBP will very much depend on the future of domestic interest rates and relevant yield differentials against major forex counterparts. Markets feel that it is a near-certainty the Bank of England will continue cutting rates through 2008. Yet a persistent flare-up in inflationary pressures could easily dispel hopes that the BoE will lower rates further through 2008. Whether or not inflation will moderate through the medium term will subsequently depend on the effects of a nascent housing market slowdown and fallout from general financial market distress. If we see a UK housing market recession on the order of what the US is currently suffering, consumption rates will almost definitely fall. Likewise significant, substantial job cuts in the financial sector could just as easily hurt labor prospects and force a similar pullback in household spending. Risks to this outlook are many. If the UK housing market remains resilient and/or fallout from financial market troubles is contained, spending will likely remain robust in the broader economy. Given that slowing consumption rates are central to the Bank of England’s dovish outlook on price pressures, resilience in economic conditions could easily keep inflation at or above target through the medium term. Outlook on the pound will likewise depend on developments in other major economies. If the US Federal Reserve cuts rates more aggressively than the BoE, the GBP’s yield advantage could just as easily remain unchanged against the US dollar. Of course, further Fed interest rate cuts are clearly priced into futures prices and it may be difficult for the British Pound to rally significantly against its Cross-Atlantic counterpart.

    GBP/USD Technical Outlook: More Losses in Store – By Jamie Saettele<SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">[ Back ]
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  7. 15-01-2008, 09:28 PM #4012
    الصورة الرمزية Arch. Ma7amad
    Arch. Ma7amad
    Arch. Ma7amad غير متواجد حالياً عضو المتداول العربي
    تاريخ التسجيل
    Jan 2008
    الإقامة
    Cairo
    المشاركات
    237

    افتراضي رد: تحليلات Fxcmtr التابعة لشركة Fxcm

    اقتباس المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة elforexeenelarab مشاهدة المشاركة
    Date: 2008/01/15Time: 16:47 (GMT +1)Ticker: EURJPYLast: 158.79Pivot: 159.951st sup.158.62nd sup.158.023rd sup.157.591st res.159.952nd res.160.43rd res.160.95Title: EUR/JPY intraday: on the downsideSummary: Update on supports and resistances.Story: Pivot: 159.95

    Our preference: Short positions below 159.95 with targets @ 158.6 & 158.02 in extension.

    Alternative scenario: Above 159.95 look for further upside with 160.4 & 160.95 as targets.

    Comment: the RSI remains within a bearish channel, the pair has broken below its support and is facing a further drop.
    أخي جزاك الله خيرا
    ولكن أليس توقيت هذا الشارت كان منذ أكثر من ساعتين على ما أعتقد؟
    مكتوب Time: 16:47 GMT +1
    يعني 6:47 بتوقيت مكة المكرمة
    أرجو التصحيح إن كنت مخطئا
    رد مع اقتباس رد مع اقتباس
  8. 15-01-2008, 09:30 PM #4013
    الصورة الرمزية elforexeenelarab
    elforexeenelarab
    elforexeenelarab غير متواجد حالياً عضو المتداول العربي
    تاريخ التسجيل
    Jun 2007
    العمر
    41
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    440

    افتراضي رد: تحليلات Fxcmtr التابعة لشركة Fxcm

    USD/CAD 2008 Outlook

    Monday, 31 December 2007 15:55:40 GMT

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    Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Analyst
    The Canadian dollar, among the best performing currencies over the first three quarters of 2007, saw an abrupt and extensive retracement through the final months of the year. However, this turn in fortunes didn’t come before significant records were broken. Towards the end of the third quarter, the Canadian dollar was pushing multi-decade highs against its US counterpart. Soon thereafter USDCAD dropped to parity, then to a 165 year low and finally a record low of 0.9055 before finally exhausting its run. Despite suggestions from a number of analysts and even the central bank that the exchange rate between the Canadian dollar and its largest trade partner could be sustained below parity, the market seemed to see things differently. The November/December rebound which took USDCAD back above 1.0 could easily be attributed to a technical rebound - a natural response to the remarkably consistent momentum from the break below 1.05. However, now with bullish convictions broken, fundamentals will likely play a bigger role in creating a market-based equilibrium rate for the loonie that is likely to be considerably lower that just a few months ago.

    Tell Us Where You Think the USD/CAD is Headed in 2008 on the DailyFX Forum.

    Bank of Canada Cuts, Interest Rates Come To The Forefront

    One of the key factors for the USD/CAD’s steady declines through 2007 was the difference in monetary policy stances between the US and Canadian central banks. The Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 25bp to 4.50 percent in the month of July while the Federal Reserve cut the discount rate by 50bp in August. This triggered a sharp sell-off in USD/CAD that took the currency pair from 1.06 down to 0.9059 in a matter of 2 months. However, all of that changed on December 4th when Governor David Dodge and his fellow policy makers cut rates 25 basis points to 4.25 percent. This easing caught a majority of economists and market participants off guard. Growth trends were still deep in the black thanks to both domestic and export growth trends; and the risks to inflation were suspected to remain to the upside thanks to record energy prices and the rising cost for food.

    Despite the hawkish outlook coming from outside the central bank’s ranks, the forecast from monetary policy officials was quite different. Officials remarked that price pressures were below their own forecasts; and they expected them to remain so for at least the next several months. The cooling in inflation was attributed to the rapid ascent in the Canadian dollar, which lowered the prices of imported goods and eroded the country’s competitiveness on the global market. As for their growth outlook, the policy group made note that domestic growth was in line with their forecasts, commodity prices were strong and global economic expansion was robust. However, they had also suggested the difficulties in global financial markets would likely “persist for a longer time” and its unknown influence could have a profound effect on growth and inflation trends going forward.

    Considering the substantial revisions to the central bank’s expectations, there has been a clear change in interest rate expectations. If underlying inflation trends continue to flounder below the BoC’s two percent target rate and credit conditions fail to improve, BOC officials will likely lower the benchmark lending rate further. The direction of Canadian lending rates will certainly be a major influence over loonie price action over the coming months, but Canadian rates will not be the only factor for USDCAD movement – US rates will be equally influential for the pair. Looking at the graph below which plots spot USDCAD against the spread between two-year US and Canadian interest rates, it is clear that the yield differential between the two currencies has guided spot If the Federal Reserve consistently lowers its primary lending rate while the Bank of Canada eases policy at a much more restrained rate the differential may work to keep the USDCAD near parity. Whether or not the Canadian monetary policy authority takes the Fed’s lead will undoubtedly rest in fundamentals, the conditions of financial markets and the guidance of the new Governor who will take over for David Dodge upon his retirement on January 31st.

    Oil Still On The Rise, But Will It Help The Loonie?

    Though a record Canadian dollar has dampened inflation forecasts and altered the course of interest rates, commodities remain one of the nation’s key cash cows. In fact, shipments of commodities like oil, natural gas, gold and paper products account for nearly half of Canadian exports. And, while the commodity boom from years past is not taking the lead on growth trends going into 2008, it will no doubt support the merchandise trade balance as other export sectors take a hit from the unfavorable exchange rates. Commodities are able to weather the adverse circumstances as demand is relatively constant and prices continue to rise. Foreign demand for the preeminent Canadian export – crude oil – has only risen through the final months of 2007 as OPEC producers have refused to increase output even though growth trends in the US and China (two of the world’s largest economies) hold near four year and 13 year highs respectively. This divergence between supply and demand has clearly been reflected in prices. The US standard WTI crude contract soared to a record $99.29/barrel on November 21st. While prices have since backed off from these highs, they have not fallen much further than $90/barrel.

    Looking ahead, the demand for this primary energy commodity is not likely to abate on its own. The only true threat to a serious retracement would be a slowdown in global expansion However, even if prices for the energy complex and other raw materials remain elevated , there is no guarantee that they will continue to benefit the Canadian economy on balance. In fact, the frequently referred to 50-day correlation between the USDCAD and oil has deteriorated considerably over the past few months as other fundamental concerns - whether it be a technical reversal in the currency rally, a change in interest rates expectations or some other issue - crowd the relationship out. What’s more, record raw material prices are as much a burden on the domestic economy as they are to the foreign countries that purchase the necessary goods as exports.

    Export Sector Continues To Suffer

    While commodity shipments have weathered the worst of the Canadian dollar’s meteoric rise, other sectors of the economy have not been so lucky. Unlike raw materials, demand for manufactured Canadian exports will wane while the national currency appreciates as domestic businesses are no longer competitive on the global market. Though the unfavorable impact of the rising Canadian currency has been masked in relatively strong trade numbers through most of the year, cracks were clearly starting to show in the fourth quarter. The international merchandise trade surplus sank in September to C$2.65 billion - its smallest positive gap since 1998 - proving that this was not simply a one-off event. Meanwhile, the current account balance, the country’s broadest measure of trade, dropped from a surplus of C$6.35 billion in the second quarter to a more than four-year low C$1.039 billion positive balance.

    Looking ahead, the health of the manufacturing sector isn’t expected to improve if Canada’s exchange rate remains near record highs against its largest trading partner. Realistically, Canadian producers may continue to suffer for a number of months going forward even if the currency sees a steady pullback from its highs. Such dour forecasts are rooted in the significant declines in demand and investment through 2007. According to Statistics Canada, new orders at factories fell nine out of ten months in the year through October. What’s more, even if orders rebound, production capacity may not even be able to meet the demand as employment across the sector has dropped precipitously. Though nationwide employment grew relatively consistently over the past few years, bringing the jobless rate to a 33-year low, factory-based jobs steadily vanished over the same period. Over the 12 month period through November, manufacturing payrolls dropped by 91,600 jobs.

    Domestic Demand Still Strong, But Outlook Poor

    Despite the notable slowdown in manufacturing activity, though, the broader economy was running at an impressive clip through the end of 2007. Despite decelerating for the second consecutive quarter, annual expansion measured 2.9 percent through the third quarter of the year – well above 2006’s trends. Leading the charge was the Canadian consumer. Personal spending rose 3.0 percent through the quarter, encouraged by the multi-decade low in the joblessness and the strongest pace of wage growth on record. Another clear component of consumer confidence and overall contributor to healthy growth was the strength in the housing market. While the US residential market was sliding into its worst recession since WWII through the closing months of the year, demand for Canadian homes was consistently outpacing supply. Assisting demand, housing prices have not reported a monthly decline since August of 1998. Yet another strong addition to growth came through business spending. Taking advantage of the high loonie, businesses increased spending on machinery and equipment by 15 percent through the third quarter. At the same time spending on inventory rose C$15 billion over the same period.

    However, these strong trends can’t hold out forever. In fact, the components for a considerable slowdown are already in place. As the global economic winds begin to die down, the chills will eventually spread to the Canadian economy. The first sector to downshift will most likely be the sensitive export market. As we suggested above, manufacturers who ship their wares outside of the nation’s borders are already at a disadvantage due to their unfavorable exchange rates. Add to that a general decrease in demand from trade partners and even the most robust exports (i.e. commodities) will see a decline in demand. Entrenched problems in the credit markets and production and hiring trends will likely follow suit. From there, the primary engine for growth will sputter as consumer spending and housing market strength will weaken without employment and wages to raise wealth and consumer confidence.

    Canadian Dollar Already On The Turn

    And, finally, looking past all the fundamental influences pushing and pulling exchange trends, sentiment surrounding the loonie itself will undoubtedly have its impact on the currency. From its 2002 high, USDCAD dropped over 44 percent to its record low through the final quarter of 2007. What’s more, this decline wasn’t steady over the past five years. In 2007 alone, the pair plunged 24 percent. Such trends in the currency market rarely go uncorrected. Aiding in a rebound will be the presence of the psychologically-important parity level. The market often yields to even numbers; but parity has another level of influence on long-term trends.

    Key Points

    Canadian fundamentals at the end of 2007 were clearly supportive of a strong loonie Economic expansion was firmly backed by exports and business and consumer spending trends. What’s more, seemingly insatiable global demand for raw materials boosted the commodity appeal of the Canadian dollar. However, despite these trends, many cracks had developed that threaten the loonie’s reign in the currency market in 2008. The one way rally of 2007 has depressed trade flows. Another concern is that global growth trends have begun to cool, further exposing the lack of competitiveness Canadian businesses have in the global market and even threatening the demand for commodities. As a corollary to fundamentals, interest rates will also have a considerable impact on the Canadian dollar’s direction. With the first BoC rate cut out of the way, it will likely be easier for the Canadian monetary officials to follow up with further easing – putting further downward pressure on the loonie.

    USDCAD Technical Outlook: Pattern Depends on How Far Current Losses Extend – By Jamie Saettele

    We wrote last quarter that “the USDCAD looks like it could chop lower before registering a significant low. Zooming in on the daily, it appears as though the decline from 1.1875 is in its 5th and final wave. The 5th wave began at 1.0866 and does have the potential continue lower but potential support is at monthly pivot support (.9695).” In typical blow-off fashion, USDCAD reached .9055 before reversing violently and hitting 1.0248. Is the rally off of .9055 the first leg of a more significant bull move? That depends on what the decline from 1.0248 unfolds as. If the decline ends up as a 3 wave correction (which is often the longest but never the shortest), then an aggressive bullish bias is warranted against .9055. Potential support is at the 61.8% of .9055-1.0248 at .9511. Price remains below a resistance line drawn off of the March and August lows, but a break above that line would support a major bullish reversal.

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  9. 15-01-2008, 09:30 PM #4014
    الصورة الرمزية elforexeenelarab
    elforexeenelarab
    elforexeenelarab غير متواجد حالياً عضو المتداول العربي
    تاريخ التسجيل
    Jun 2007
    العمر
    41
    المشاركات
    440

    افتراضي رد: تحليلات Fxcmtr التابعة لشركة Fxcm

    AUD/USD 2008 Outlook

    Monday, 31 December 2007 16:00:34 GMT

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    Written by Terri Belkas, Currency Analyst
    While the Australian dollar managed to post a 23-year high against the US dollar in the early days of November, the currency pair fell from 94 cents to 87 cents by the end of the year, erasing much of the early speculation that the Aussie will follow the Canadian dollar to parity with the US dollar.

    Indeed, the more muted price action in the Australian dollar comes amidst gains in the US dollar along with cooling gold prices and less resilient outlooks for the Australian economy in 2008. Nevertheless, with the fallout from the subprime fiasco doing little damage to the Australian financial markets, the economy will likely fare better than its American and European counterparts and the prolonged boom in commodities should provide support the Aussie.

    The Australian Economy Remains Healthy, But Has Growth Peaked?

    Ultra tight labor market conditions and strong consumer spending growth helped fuel expansion during the third quarter at a sturdy 4.3 percent pace of growth – the best rate since the second quarter of 2004. However, some cracks have started to appear in the Australian economy. In October, retail sales slowed for a second consecutive month to 0.2 percent from 0.7 percent, - not entirely surprising given the fact that oil prices climbed during that period. In November readings are not likely to be encouraging either, as consumers grappled with even higher oil prices while the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates to an 11-year high of 6.75 percent.

    Meanwhile, employment rose by a whopping 52,000 in November, which was more than double expectations for the figure. However, the unemployment rate actually rose to 4.5 percent from 4.3 percent. Why the divergence? With the labor markets continuing to improve and pushing wages higher, unemployed workers who were previously discouraged and stopped looking for work have come out of the woodwork to take advantage of the conditions. While businesses that deal with mining and commodities in general will likely to continue hiring, there are signs that companies are feeling a bit more cautious. Indeed, business confidence, as measured by National Australia Bank, has declined steadily throughout the second half of the year. Furthermore, capital spending plummeted 6.5 percent during the third quarter, marking the sharpest drop in nearly eight years, amidst concerns that the US will face recession and worries that Europe and Asia will see at least a slowdown in growth in 2008. As these fears come to fruition and demand for Australian exports starts to fade, employers may not be so keen to take on more workers. Clearly, this will not bode well for consumer spending, and when GDP releases for the fourth quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2008 start to hit the wires, the markets will likely see that economic growth in Australia has already peaked.

    What Will the Reserve Bank of Australia Do?

    Signs that expansion in Australia has peaked may be of some relief to the Reserve Bank of Australia, as the monetary policy board has long been worried that domestic demand would drive inflation through the roof. Indeed, core inflation surged the most in 16-years during the third quarter, propelling the central bank’s weighted-median CPI measure above their 3 percent tolerance level to 3.1 percent. This was the primary reason why the central bank raised interest rates by 25bp in November to an 11-year high of 6.75 percent, and with inflation anticipated to hold above 3 percent throughout the first half of 2008, they are still considered to be very hawkish. In fact, the minutes of the Reserve Bank’s December meeting revealed that, “absent the changes in market yields since the November meeting, there would have been a strong case on domestic grounds for a rise in the cash rate.” As a result, developments in the financial markets will be a key focus of the Australian bank, and if the national economy continues to face few headwinds from the credit crunch, traders will ramp up speculation for further monetary policy tightening. However, if economic growth has actually peaked and domestic demand cools further, the Reserve Bank of Australia may find that additional rate increases are not necessary, effectively removing much of the impetus for further gains in the Australian dollar.

    Keep an Eye on Gold

    Aside from rampant inflation and rising interest rates, gold remains a major issue with respect to the Australian dollar. In fact, gold prices were probably a bigger driver of the Aussie over the past three months than economic fundamentals as the country benefits significantly from Chinese demand for the yellow ****l. However, the peak gold settlement price of $835.20 on November 8 came just a day after the AUD/USD pair hit a 23-year high of 0.9399, and both gold and the Australian dollar have simply meandered lower since then. Nevertheless, gold and other commodity prices are anticipated to rocket higher once again in coming months, creating major upside risk for the Australian dollar.

    Meanwhile it is important to mention that agricultural producers in Australia are struggling. Though inflation in this sector has been just as astronomical as many of its durable counterparts, output from Aussie firms has been lacking due to the worst draught in over 200 years. This has cut into many valuable categories that have contributed to growth in the past such as lost production in live stock (Australia is the largest beef exporter), wheat, wool and cotton. It has also undoubtedly restrained the growth potential for the Australian economy and the Australian dollar.

    A Risky Bet

    Looking ahead, rising volatility and lingering doubts over the health of credit markets may prove to be yet another saboteur of Aussie strength. Financial markets have been extremely shaky since August, and this has raised doubts about the all-too-popular carry trade. In recent months, when credit market difficulties sent shock waves through global markets, the highly leveraged, overextended carry trade was quickly unwound to eliminate pent-up risk. All of a sudden, the passive collection on interest rate differentials was not appetizing enough to sustain multi-decade and record highs across the FX market. Evidence of this can be seen in early November, when a wave of risk aversion coincided with the AUD/USD drop from 23-year highs. As a result, traders should pay heed to the market’s tolerance for risk, as well as Australian economic data, commodity prices, and interest rate outlooks in coming months.

    Key Points

    Heading into the beginning of 2008, Australian fundamentals are still relatively strong, and upside inflation risks have left the Reserve Bank of Australia maintaining a staunchly hawkish bias. However, export activity, consumer spending, and business investment are all suffering, posing grave risks to expansion in 2008. What’s more, the central bank’s November rate hike along with tighter global credit markets pose additional downside risks for the economy, as they threaten to cool lending to both businesses and consumers alike. If the air of uncertainty surrounding the world’s financial markets become worse, and inflation trends finally start to falter in Australia, the AUD/USD will quickly lose its luster. However, with demand for commodities like gold unlikely to decline any time soon and inflation pressures persisting, the risks for the Australian dollar during the early part of 2008 are skewed to the upside.
    AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Blow Off Top Expected – By Jamie Saettele

    We were looking for a rally towards .9500 last quarter. The AUDUSD did reach .9400 before undergoing a nearly 900 pip setback. However that setback is corrective and it is our contention that a significant low is in place at .8549. The entire rally from the 2001 low of .4775 is an A-B-C advance. Wave C has been underway since .6771 and is in its 5th and final wave now. Still, wave C would not equal wave A until .9998 (in pip terms). Again, this objective fits with the idea of a blow-off top and reversal.




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  10. 15-01-2008, 09:33 PM #4015
    الصورة الرمزية elforexeenelarab
    elforexeenelarab
    elforexeenelarab غير متواجد حالياً عضو المتداول العربي
    تاريخ التسجيل
    Jun 2007
    العمر
    41
    المشاركات
    440

    افتراضي رد: تحليلات Fxcmtr التابعة لشركة Fxcm

    NZD/USD 2008 Forecast

    Monday, 31 December 2007 16:05:26 GMT

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    Written by Terri Belkas, Currency Analyst
    The New Zealand dollar’s price movements against the US dollar during the fourth quarter of 2007 were relatively placid compared to the quarter prior, when the NZD/USD whipped around in a more than a 1,000 point range. However, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand remaining focused on inflation risks – as consumer prices are expected to remain uncomfortably high going into early 2008 – the Kiwi dollar has remained supported and continues to rise within an ascending channel. Until the central bank shifts their inflation stance to a more neutral posture, the New Zealand currency is unlikely to lose its luster as one of the best high yielders in the currency market..

    Consumers Tighten The Purse Strings Going into Q4 – Downhill from Here?

    According to the government’s third quarter growth report, the economy expanded by 0.5 percent, the slowest pace of growth in a year. Even though the labor market remains tight, high interest rates curbed consumer spending while a rising currency crimped exports. Signs of a slowdown are clearly emerging, which suggests that growth was far more anemic in of the fourth of 2007 and could continue to remain weak into 2008. Indeed, RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard’s efforts to cool inflation risks emanating from domestic demand and housing market growth have finally started to bear fruit after the bank hiked rates four times this year to a record high of 8.25 percent. Retail sales dropped for the first time in four months in October at a rate of - 0.7 percent, and excluding autos, the reading was even worse at -1.1 percent as gasoline and costs for basic food items surged. Consumer spending fell to an 18 month low while business sentiment dropped for the second month in a row in December. New Zealand companies such as Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd., the country’s third-largest publicly traded retailer, have also seen their shares drop quite a bit amidst weak outlooks for early 2008 given “tightening demand.” With the housing market in the country starting to falter, these forecasts aren’t entirely surprising. Early in December, RBNZ Governor Bollard said that housing “is a big driver of how much spending goes on at home” and that he expected the market to keep slowing. Indeed, with REINZ home sales down 21.6 percent in November from a year earlier, it is difficult to find a reason to be optimistic about the sector. Nevertheless, this is exactly what the RBNZ was aiming for when they aggressively tightened monetary policy in the first place.

    Will Softer Spending Cool Inflation? It’s Up To The RBNZ To Decide.

    RBNZ Governor Bollard noted in his policy statement in December that “a substantial income boost is still expected to occur through 2008, as recent dairy price gains reach farmers.” This effective increase in wages for farmers only adds to the bank’s concerns regarding building price pressures, as the statement also said “inflationary pressures have increased, and interest rates are now likely to remain around current levels for longer than previously thought. We believe that the current level of the OCR remains consistent with future inflation outcomes of 1 to 3 percent on average over the medium term, based on the information to hand at present.” With the New Zealand economy apparently shielded from the wrath of a credit crunch that is throwing a wrench in the US and European financial markets, it is clear that the RBNZ has no intent to even consider cutting rates until mid to late-2008.

    Does Risk Still Matter For The High-Yielder?

    The New Zealand dollar has not been impacted as heavily by bouts of risk aversion recently, particularly when compared to the currency’s bipolar price action during the third quarter. In the world of rate differentials, the New Zealand dollar was the optimal yielding currency for the popular carry trade strategy, as the country touted the highest overnight lending rate among countries with the highest sovereign debt rating. However, shake ups in the credit markets have made the Kiwi dollar and its inherent risk less attractive, and the NZD/USD has subsequently reverted to range trading. Nevertheless, with interest rates in the country likely to remain lofty for quite some time and commodity prices – especially in agriculture – trading at or near record highs, upside potential remains during the next few months for the NZD/USD.

    Key Points

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle in 2007 has finally started to impact various aspects of the economy, such as consumption and the housing market. Domestic demand growth as a whole, however, may be more difficult to quell as exporters continue to thrive in the face of surging commodity prices. Furthermore, New Zealand has been fortunate enough to avoid the wrath of a credit crunch that is wreaking havoc in the US and Europe. As a result, the RBNZ cannot let their guard down anytime soon when it comes to inflation risks, and the bank’s staunchly hawkish bias will underpin the case for a strong NZD/USD in coming months. However, when inflation pressures finally start to subside and the New Zealand economy begins to decelerate under the weight of record high interest rates, Kiwi bulls will have to call it quits and start to bet that the RBNZ’s next policy move will be a cut.

    NZD/USD Technical Outlook: Significant Decline to 60 Cents Expected – By Jamie Saettele

    Our longer term count for the NZDUSD has not changed. We still expect a significant decline, with price eventually coming under .5927. This decline could take up to a year or more though. The rally from .3897-.7463 was in 5 waves. The decline into .5927 and subsequent rally to .8108 are waves A and B of an expanded flat. As long as .8108 remains intact, it is our contention that wave C is underway towards .5927.
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  11. 15-01-2008, 09:34 PM #4016
    الصورة الرمزية elforexeenelarab
    elforexeenelarab
    elforexeenelarab غير متواجد حالياً عضو المتداول العربي
    تاريخ التسجيل
    Jun 2007
    العمر
    41
    المشاركات
    440

    افتراضي رد: تحليلات Fxcmtr التابعة لشركة Fxcm

    Signals (Position Summary) PagePositionPriceTargetStop PagePositionPriceTargetStopEUR/USD More FLAT 1.4825 USD/JPY More SHORT 107.15 105.00 107.55 GBP/USD More FLAT 1.9715 USD/CHF More SHORT 1.0881 1.0715 1.0955 EUR/CHF More FLAT 1.6197 EUR/JPY More FLAT 158.90 EUR/GBP More SHORT 0.7555 0.7422 0.7620 AUD/USD More FLAT 0.8970 NZD/USD More FLAT 0.7790 AUD/NZD More LONG 1.1375 1.1500 1.1285 USD/CAD More FLAT 1.0135 EUR/SEK More SHORT 9.3900 9.2970 9.4500
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  12. 15-01-2008, 09:42 PM #4017
    الصورة الرمزية elforexeenelarab
    elforexeenelarab
    elforexeenelarab غير متواجد حالياً عضو المتداول العربي
    تاريخ التسجيل
    Jun 2007
    العمر
    41
    المشاركات
    440

    افتراضي رد: تحليلات Fxcmtr التابعة لشركة Fxcm

    اقتباس المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة TP77 مشاهدة المشاركة
    أخي جزاك الله خيرا
    ولكن أليس توقيت هذا الشارت كان منذ أكثر من ساعتين على ما أعتقد؟
    مكتوب Time: 16:47 GMT +1
    يعني 6:47 بتوقيت مكة المكرمة
    أرجو التصحيح إن كنت مخطئا

    نعم اخى الكريم حيث انه اخر تحديث حيث انى لم اعد من العمل الا الأن .
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  13. 15-01-2008, 10:41 PM #4018
    الصورة الرمزية الحاكم بأمر الله
    الحاكم بأمر الله
    الحاكم بأمر الله غير متواجد حالياً عضو المتداول العربي
    تاريخ التسجيل
    Aug 2004
    الإقامة
    مــصراوى
    المشاركات
    370

    افتراضي رد: تحليلات Fxcmtr التابعة لشركة Fxcm

    مشكور أخى الحبيب على هذا المجهود وبارك الله فيك
    رد مع اقتباس رد مع اقتباس
  14. 15-01-2008, 10:47 PM #4019
    الصورة الرمزية elforexeenelarab
    elforexeenelarab
    elforexeenelarab غير متواجد حالياً عضو المتداول العربي
    تاريخ التسجيل
    Jun 2007
    العمر
    41
    المشاركات
    440

    افتراضي رد: تحليلات Fxcmtr التابعة لشركة Fxcm

    Date: 2008/01/15Time: 19:40 (GMT +1)Ticker: EURLast: 1.484Pivot: 1.48751st sup.1.4822nd sup.1.47753rd sup.1.47451st res.1.48752nd res.1.48973rd res.1.4925Title: EUR/USD intraday: further downside expectedSummary: Update on supports and resistances.Story: Pivot: 1.4875

    Our preference: Short positions below 1.4875 with targets @ 1.482 & 1.4775 in extension.

    Alternative scenario: Above 1.4875 look for further upside with 1.4897 & 1.4925 as targets.

    Comments: the pair has broken below a rising trend line.
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  15. 15-01-2008, 10:48 PM #4020
    الصورة الرمزية elforexeenelarab
    elforexeenelarab
    elforexeenelarab غير متواجد حالياً عضو المتداول العربي
    تاريخ التسجيل
    Jun 2007
    العمر
    41
    المشاركات
    440

    افتراضي رد: تحليلات Fxcmtr التابعة لشركة Fxcm

    Date: 2008/01/15Time: 19:43 (GMT +1)Ticker: JPYLast: 107.1Pivot: 107.751st sup.106.612nd sup.106.253rd sup.105.751st res.107.752nd res.108.353rd res.108.6Title: USD/JPY intraday: within a bearish channelSummary: Update on supports and resistances.Story: Pivot: 107.75

    Our preference: Short positions below 107.75 with targets @ 106.61 & 106.25 in extension.

    Alternative scenario: Above 107.75 look for further upside with 108.35 & 108.6 as targets.

    Comment: the pair remains within an intraday bearish channel.
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« الموضوع السابق | الموضوع التالي »

المواضيع المتشابهه

  1. ورشة عمل توصيات شركة Fxcmtr التابعة لشركة Fxcm
    By aalawee in forum طرق و استراتيجيات التداول في أسواق المال
    مشاركات: 68
    آخر مشاركة: 08-05-2007, 03:50 AM
  2. المؤشر المستخدم في تحليلات FXCMTR
    By عباس بن فرناس in forum سوق تداول العملات الأجنبية والسلع والنفط والمعادن
    مشاركات: 21
    آخر مشاركة: 20-02-2007, 09:00 PM
  3. ورشة عمل توصيات شركة Fxcmtr التابعة لشركة Fxcm
    By aalawee in forum سوق تداول العملات الأجنبية والسلع والنفط والمعادن
    مشاركات: 66
    آخر مشاركة: 11-10-2006, 01:09 AM
  4. تصويت على تحليلات Fxcmtr
    By سمير صيام in forum سوق تداول العملات الأجنبية والسلع والنفط والمعادن
    مشاركات: 17
    آخر مشاركة: 20-05-2006, 10:59 PM
  5. اصحاب الحسابات الحقيقية بfxcm (تحليلات fxcmtr)
    By haithamgolden in forum سوق تداول العملات الأجنبية والسلع والنفط والمعادن
    مشاركات: 15
    آخر مشاركة: 14-04-2006, 03:20 PM

الاوسمة لهذا الموضوع

تحذير المخاطرة :المتاجرة باستخدام الروافع المالية في أسواق المال ينطوي عليها مخاطر عالية جدًا لا تتناسب مع جميع أنواع المستثمرين، يجب عليك أن تستوعب حجم المخاطرة التي قد تتعرض لها أموالك. جميع ما يطرح في الموقع من آراء وتحليلات وتوصيات ومحتويات هو من باب المعلومات العامة ولا يجب أن يتخذ كأداة لاتخاذ أي قرارات استثمارية بالبيع أو الشراء. الرجاء الاطلاع على تحذير المخاطرة التفصيلي بالضغط هنا.

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