بدون مؤشرات ..لنراقب

[za3eem]

ما زالت التداولات في نطاق ضيق جدا ً فوق مستوى الدعم الرئيسي للأنظمة الزمنية القصيرة الأمد و الممثل في مستوى تصحيح 76.4% فيبوناتشي و الذي يرافق مستوى السعر 141.70 و هذا ما يجعل احتمال ارتفاع السعر نحو الأعلى تبقى قائمة و قد نرى اتجاها ً صاعدا ً قويا ً يستهدف إعادة اختبار مستويات خط الرقبة للنموذج الفني الكلاسيكي الهابط الظاهر على الرسم البياني اليومي . مؤشر القوّة النسبية و كذلك مؤشر AROON يدعمان توقعاتنا لهذا اليوم .

مستويات التداول لهذا اليوم قد تكون بين مستوى الدعم 138.70 و مستوى المقاومة 147.00

الاتجاه العام هابط نحو الأسفل بثبات مستوى 164.90 والأهداف عند مستويات 116.00

[za3eem]

كما ذكرنا في الرسائل اللحظية هذا اليوم فأن السعر وجد دعما ً قويا ً عند 132.50 و هذا يجعلنا نتوقع أن يبقى الاتجاه الصاعد مسيطرا ً على تداولات هذا اليوم وصولا ً إلى مستويات الأهداف الصاعدة للنموذج الفني التوافقي و كذلك النموذج الفني الكلاسيكي عند 134.15 . مؤشر المتوسط المتحرك 20 يدعم توقعاتنا لهذا اليوم .

مستويات التداول لهذا اليوم قد تكون بين مستوى الدعم 128.30 و مستوى المقاومة 135.50

الاتجاه العام هابط نحو الأسفل بثبات مستوى 141.44 والأهداف عند 100.00 و 88.97

[za3eem]

تقرير منتصف اليوم

ما زال الزوج يشكّل مستوى الانعطاف المحتمل للنموذج الفني التوافقي الظاهر على الرسم البياني لأربع ساعات . نحن نتوقع أن تكون النقطة D قد تتكون بين مستويات 127% و 161.8% فيبوناتشي و هذا ما يجعلنا نبقي على توقعاتنا هذا اليوم على ما هي عليه مشيرين إلى احتمال اتجاه هابط هذا اليوم . كسر مستوى 0.9360 سوف يسرّع من عملية الهبوط فيما نرى بأن مؤشر ستوكاستيك و مؤشر A.C يدعمان توقعاتنا لهذا اليوم .

مستويات التداول لهذا اليوم قد تكون بين مستوى الدعم 0.9130 و مستوى المقاومة 0.9525

الاتجاه العام صاعد نحو الأعلى بثبات مستوى 0.8020 والأهداف عند 1.0000 و 1.0400

[za3eem]

FX –-talk of decent 90.00 & 90.50 vanilla option expiries today in NY-USD/JPY multi Japanese account offers capped highs ard 90.45-50, then model /CME type $ selling set in & it fell back to 89.60-65 o/n, it rose from 89.60-65 to 90.05-10 before running into Japanese supply some said exporter related (but also chatter that exporters had already completed ard 50% of hedging to end March ’10) in Asia, while above 89.40-10 mkt targets 90.15-45 or 90.65-91.05 failure risking setback to 88.60-15, support 89.40/89.10 & 88.60 res 90.15/90.45 & 90.65–EURYEN traded within 132.55-60 to 133.30-35 o/n, it rose from 132.50-55 to 133.00-05 in Asia, while above 132.50 mkt targets break of 133.30 to test 133.60-85 or 134.10-70 failure risking setback to 132.15-131.70 or 131.40-10, support 132.50/132.15 & 131.70 res 133.30/133.60 & 133.85 -YEN/CHF fell from 1.1460-70 to 1.1380-90 o/n, it consolidated within 1.1400-10 to 1.1440-50 in Asia, while below 1.1540 risk to break below 1.1380 for 1.13-1.12 only back above could challenge 1.16-1.17 zone, support 1.1380/1.1320 & 1.1250 res 1.1540/1.1570 & 1.1630

[za3eem]

X –EUR/USD traded down to 1.4675-80 aided by news of Dutch CB took control of struggling consumer & mortgage lender DSB, but £ was main focus & substantial eurgbp gains worked as prop up to headline, a positive stock mkt later encouraged fresh risk appetite & model/CME type $ selling triggered short squeeze in holiday thinned session to 1.4810-15, seems there was also bearish $ report (citing UK clearer data & indicating demand from foreign Central banks for US$ assets for last quarter was down 37% from average 63% since ’99) before Wallstreet handed back some of its gains & pair settled ard 1.4770 o/n, it tracked the kiwi after better retail sales to 1.4795-00, before investment bank/chatter of sovereign supply briefly pressured back to 1.4760-65, it respected this range for rest of Asia session, while above 1.4720-1.4675 mkt targets 1.4820-50 or 1.4870-1.4910 failure risking setback to 1.4650-10 or 1.4560, support 1.4720//.14675 & 1.4650, res 1.4820/1.4850 & 1.4910

[za3eem]

FX –-USD/CHF early session recovery attempts failed on model /CME type selling ard 1.0350-55 & pick up in risk appetite (on optimism of better Q3 earnings) pressured it to 1.0230-35 lows o/n, it traded within 1.0250-55 to 1.0270-75 in Asia, bids said ard 1.0220 & offers ad 1.0315, it needs to hold above 1.0230-05 & recover past 1.0305 to challenge 1.0360-90 or 1.0410-55 failure risking setback to 1.0170-40 or 1.0110, support 1.0230/1.0205 & 1.0170 resistance 1.0305/1.0360 & 1.0390 -EUR/CHF it tested 1.5200-05 but failed & drifted back towards 1.5160-65 o/n, it consolidated within 1.5165-70 to 1.5170-75 in Asia, it needs to hold above 1.5145-30 & recover past 1.5210 to test 1.5245-70 or 1.5305 failure risking setback to 1.5110-1.5075 or 1.5010, support 1.5145/1.5130 & 1.5100 res 1.5210/1.5250 & 1.5270

[za3eem]

FX- According to Chicago future exchange the net short sterling positions jumped to record of more than 62k contracts last week -GBP/USD extended losses from 1.5840-45 to 1.5725-30 after dovish weekend press, then $ lost again most of its early shine lifting cable off the early lows, but eurgbp demand tempered recovery attempts & it settled ard 1.5805 o/n, it tracked kiwi to 1.5820-25 highs before $ buying in afternoon trading pressured it briefly back to 1.5760-65 in Asia, while below 1.5885 risk to 1.5725-1.5690 or 1.5635-1.5515 only back above could challenge 1.5945-1.6045 or 1.6130, support 1.5725/1.5690 & 1.5635 res 1.5885/1.5945 & 1.6045 -EUR/GBP leaped higher on aggressive model type/Hedge Fund demand & broadly bearish press led £ sell off from 0.9280-85 to 0.9380-85 before settling ard 0.9355 o/n, it consolidated within 0.9345-50 to 0.9365-70 in Asia, while above 0.9325 mkt targets break past 0.9385-0.9415 for test of 0.9450-90 or 95.20 failure risking setback to 0.9300-0.9275 or 0.9230-0.9160, support 0.9325/0.9300 & 0.9275, res 0.9385/0.9415 & 0.9450 -GBP/CHF fell from 1.6340-50 to 1.6160-70 o/n, it consolidated within 1.6190-00 to 1.6220-30 in Asia, while below 1.6290-1.6330 risk to 1.6090-1.5935 or 1.5850 only back above could challenge 1.6385-1.6440 or 1.6540, support 1.6095/1.5935 & 1.5850 res 1.6290/1.6330 & 1.6385–GBP/JPY stalled ard 142.60-70 while holding lows ard 141.50-60 o/n, it consolidated within 141.50-60 to 142.10-20 in Asia, a recovery past 143.30 needed to challenge 143.95-144.55 or 145.05-146.00 failure risking setback to 141.00-140.75 or 139.70-139.00, support 141.00/140.75 & 139.70 res 143.30/143.95 & 144.55

[za3eem]

Australia - NAB business conditions fell 1 point to 3, confidence fell 4 points to 14. The details of the survey were stronger; employment jumped 10 points to -1 (best since Aug 2008), while forward orders jumped 9 points to 7 (highest in 2 years). (UBS Research) - Aussie bills went up a few ticks on the back of the NAB headlines. With rate expectations already so elevated, the data won't prompt further selling in Aussie bills. With some of the details of the survey showing strength, the data is unlikely to push the market either way and it might be driven more by stock markets and US rate futures for now. (UBS Sydney rates desk) -AUD/USD improved risk appetite (broad $ weakness/higher commodities) lifted it from 0.8980-85 to 0.9080-85 before settling ard 0.9075 o/n, data led kiwi surge gave $ a broadly offered tone & lifted pairing despite audnzd selling to 0.9085-90 were supply ahead of 0.9100 option expiry capped, in early afternoon the $ crawled back most of its early losses pressuring it briefly back to 0.9055-60 in Asia, it needs to hold above 0.9010-0.8980 & recover past 0.9100 to challenge 0.9150-0.9205 or 0.9250 failure risking setback to 0.8950-00 or 0.8865-00, support 0.9010/0.8980 & 0.8950, res 0.9100/0.9150 & 0.9180

[za3eem]

NZD/USD recovered from 0.7255-60 to 0.7360-65 & closed ad 0.7335-40 o/n, it was star performer, jumping after better retail sales data in twilight zone to 0.7360-65 & extended gains to 0.7390-95 in regular session, pulling usual risk related ccy’s with it, but across the board $ buying in early afternoon ended the party & it dipped back to 0.7360-65 before bouncing back towards highs in late Asia, it needs to hold above 0.7310 & recover past 0.7405 to challenge 0.7455-90 or 0.7540 failure risking setback to 0.7255-00 or 0.7150-10, support 0.7310/0.7255 & 0.7200, res 0.7405/0.7455 & 0.7490

[za3eem]

Canada –USD/CAD seen one way traffic amid stronger stock mkts/higher oil/BOC rate hike speculation, extending losses from 1.0440-45 to 1.0315-20 o/n, it consolidated losses within 1.0325-30 to 1.0350-55 in Asia, while below 1.0385 risk to break below 1.03 for test of 1.0270-40 or 1.0175-30 only back above could challenge 1.0450-1.0485 or 1.0550-90, support 1.0300/1.0270 & 1.0240 res 1.0385/1.0450 & 1.0485

[za3eem]

Gold – Comex yesterday closed at 1056/57, high 1059/60 & low 1051/52 (day’s low 1047/48). Gold had a quiet session in NY due to local holiday. It started around 1054/55 and was grinding higher when dollar came under pressure again, some offers around 1060 stopped gold from going higher and it was gliding slightly lower, closing around 1056/57in a light market (UBS Metal), profit taking & Asian led supply kept it range bound within 1051/52 to 1056/57 in Asia, while above 1047-44 mkt targets 1061-1065 or 1070-79 failure risking setback to 1040-1036 or 1030-1023, support 1047/1044 & 1040, res 1061/1065 & 1070

[za3eem]

Oil- NYMEX November crude future catched a bid on fresh $ weakness/higher stock mkts & cooler temperatures trading from 72.05 to 73.84, before settling at 73.27 in NY, it consolidated gians within 72.83 to 73.27 in Asia, while above 72.50 mkt targets break past 73.85-74.15 to challenge 75.00-76.30 failure risking setback to 71.20-70.60 or 69.80, support 72.50/71.20 & 70.60, res 73.85/74.15 & 75.00

[za3eem]

EUR/USD - TRADERS favour buy dip while above 1.4750 target 1.4815-50
USD/CHF - TRADERS favour sell rally 1.0290 target 1.02 stop above 1.0320
EUR/CHF - TRADERS favour play 1.5150-10 to 1.5200-10 range
GBP/USD – TRADERS favour sell rally 1.5800-20 target 1.5725 stop above 1.5880
USD/YEN - TRADERS favour buy dip 89.45-55 target 90.50 stop below 89.10
EUR/YEN – TRADERS favour buy dip 132.25-35 target 134.00 stop below 131.90
XAU/USD - TRADERS favour buy dip 1045-47 target 1060-62 stop below 1038
XAG/USD - TRADERS favour buy dip 17.70 target 18.31 stop below 17.55

[الاسمر]

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