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Saxo Bank Report

Published: Apr. 10 2007, 12:24 GMT
EURUSD back, testing the highs again

Despite the strong US labor market data on Friday, the rally in USD was beaten down in the overnight session. Not a sign of strength.



MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION

• JN Eco Watchers Survey: Current (Mar), out at 50.8 vs. 49.2 prior.
• JN Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (Mar), out at 51.3 vs. 52.1 prior.
• NZ NZIER Business Opinion Survey (1Q), out at -15 vs. 3 prior.
• AU AIG Perf of Construction Index (Mar), out at 51.1 vs. 51.7 prior.
• AU ANZ Job Advertisments MoM (Mar), out at 1.9% vs. 3.4% prior.
• AU NAB Business Confidence (Mar), out at 10 vs. 12 prior.
• AU NAB Business Conditions (Mar), out at 17 vs. 18 prior.
• JN BOJ Target Rate (Apr 10), unchanged from 0.50%.
• Swiss Unemployment Rate (Mar) out at 3.0% vs. 3.1% expected.
• Japanese Machine Tool Orders (Mar P) out at 9.5% vs. 16.5% previously.
• German Trade Balance (Feb) out at 14.2B vs. 15.0B expected.
• Australian Foreign Reserves (Mar) out at A$71.3B vs. A$68.2B expected.
• French Industrial Production Mom (Feb) out at 1.1% vs. 0.6% expected.
• French Manufacturing Production MoM (Feb) out at 1.4% vs. 0.7% expected.
• Norwegian CPI MoM (Mar) out at 0.6% vs. 0.4% expected.
• Norwegian CPI Underlying MoM (Mar) out at 0.7% vs. 0.4% expected.
• Norwegian PPI Incl. Oil MoM (Mar) out at 1.8% vs. 1.5% previously.

There is also a great deal of focus on the fact that the Chinese Trade Surplus vs. the US. Complaints are being filed at the WTO.
Another front page story is about top level republicans and democrats in the Senate's Financial Services Committee agreeing that mortgage bond holders are bearing the entire risk from the faltering housing market, delinquencies, foreclosures etc. No bailing out in sight...

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION

The dominating theme in the market right now seems to be that the US economy is stronger than expected and that the spill-over effect from the deteriorating housing market, housing market activity, construction and subprime loan issues is still contained and has had a very limited impact on the broad economy.
This notion is also apparent in the STIR futures market with expecations for a cut in the near future being priced out.
Our Proprietary Index of Weekly Economic Indicators is showing that the US economy is at the strongest level since 2000 (itself a record year).
Inflationary pressures are still apparent in the US with very tight labor market data and core inflation still running at 2.7% YoY.

EUR
Currently in a strong trend across the board (not vs. AUD, though). We expect the trend to continue higher in the next couple of trading days, but further upside in EURCHF should be capped above 1.6425, where our proprietary Mean-Reversion Model gives a signal to sell.
USD
The US economy is very strong and has surprised the analyst community to the upside lately, brushing all housing-related worries aside. The yield in the currency is currently not likely to be coming down and that should be supportive. Additionally, the much stronger than expected labor market data on Friday should be a supporting factor, but it is a cause for concern that the USD has not been able to hold on to its gains. Short-term, that's a negative.
CAD
Being a commodity currency, we believe that CAD should be outperforming the USD in the mid-term. The trend in USDCAD has turned negative and the cross breaks to new lows on a daily basis now. We believe that is will continue, but look for 1.1450 to provide intermediate support.
GBP
The currency has been very interesting because of the yield and the trend lately, but the lack of a hike and the lower yield curve during last week makes the GBP vulnerable vs. other European currencies. GBPCHF is especially intersting from a Mean-Reversion perspective.
JPY
Eternally weak? We think the current weakness will continue until AUDJPY reaches 100. But that should be a good selling opportunity, as our MR model is about to give a signal (around 99), of the cross goes that high. Figures out of Japan have still not surprised to the upside, but the big question is if this is beginning to be priced in (the trade-weighted JPY index has now fallen 14 percent in the last year alone).
AUD (and NZD)
The strongest trends and the highest yielding currencies, but with both CHF and JPY looking to come back with a vengeance from a Mean-Reverting perspective, the trends might be overexhausted within the next couple of trading days (at the current pace of appreciation). Still, we are bullish until mid-week, but bearish thereafter (the MR model will guide us).

[Mr. JOD]

The FX Solutions Team

Market Directions April 2 – 6, 2007

The Week in Review

Currency markets celebrated the Euro all week. The united currency climbed to a six year high on Thursday, but US Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) ended the party on Friday with an unexpectedly strong view of American employment. March payrolls were 180,000 fully 1/3 higher than median pre release estimate of 135,000. In fact the result was even stronger than indicated by the 45,000 difference. Weak ISM, Factory and other statistics had caused many market commentators to lower their estimates for NFP, these lowered judgments did not factor into the 135,000 number which had been collected before this week’s results were known. January and February numbers were also revised higher by a total of 32,000. Most European banks and the New York Stock Exchange were closed on Friday for the Good Friday Holiday and the market response to the NFP was relatively muted. The Euro fell 50 points against the Dollar and the USD gained 60 points against the Yen. The only clear gainer was the Euro/Yen which closed within 20 point of the all-time high of 159.69, reached earlier in the day. The Yen carry trade has lost none of its popularity.

The NFP number came at the end of a string of mediocre or negative US statistics, (details below) earlier in the week. By itself the NFP number is not enough to change the general market assumption of a slowing American economy or the perception of Federal Reserve rate inaction for the foreseeable future.

Half the market was surprised by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England (BOE) decision not to raise the repo rate beyond 5.25% on Thursday and half was not. Prior sentiment had been split 50% -50%. Cable initially dropped 40 points on the report to 1.9675 with sterling longs vacating their positions. But calmer reflection soon brought sterling back to 1.9715. The market is likely to go into the May meeting heavily favoring a 0.25% rate hike. Though the March MPC vote was 8-1 in favor of a hold, with David Blanchflower voting for a cut, the February BOE inflation report seemed to imply the need for at least one more 0.25% hike. Recent British data has been mixed with weak manufacturing results but PMI and housing data strong. The bias will grow for a May hike as the decision approaches. March CPI data will be crucial to the MPC decision.

In other central bank news the Reserve Bank of Australia decided not to raise rates beyond the current 6.25% and two of the Yen carry trade favorites, the Aud/Yen and the Nzd/Yen suffered immediate profit taking declines.

New York Mercantile Crude Oil Futures closed at $64.28 a barrel on Thursday. The Iranian release of 15 British Sailors and Marines, announced Wednesday, calmed the immediate oil market jitters. Iranian claims to have captured the sailors in their own territorial waters were widely discounted in western capitals. Britain denied any trespass and she and her allies had deplored the action and demanded their release without conditions. Crude oil had jumped to $69.20 March 27th just a few days after the initial capture and largely as a result of the dispute. Though Britain said the release was unconditional, the return of a detained Iranian diplomat to Iran brought that assertion into question. Iran has clearly demonstrated its ability and willingness to provoke international crises for its own purpose and at its own timing. Iran is a direct beneficiary of any rise in oil prices and its economy is almost wholly dependant on its oil export earnings. This flagrant demonstration of its power to affect the price of oil and western economies is bound to have a lasting effect on crude oil futures. The very ease with which Iran accomplished its goal of kidnapping the servicemen without any interference from the British or American military underlines its power to set and control the content and timetable of political events in the Persian Gulf. With American and Iraqi security operations in Iraq proceeding, the potential for confrontation in the Gulf remains very high. Underneath all surface disputes lies the Iranian pursuit of nuclear energy and weaponry. Without some sign of accommodation on this basic issue from Iran, the Middle East and the Persian Gulf will remain the fulcrum of international politics and economic concerns, overshadowing everything else with its potential for immediate, serious and debilitating crises. We have not heard the last of this problem.

Before excessive gloom sets in about the US economy it is wise to remember that though manufacturing has slowed considerably both of the ISM numbers are consonant with a moderately growing economy and GDP increase in the first quarter of 2007 between 2% and 3%. While this is not a spectacular performance for the US, it is very credible for a mature industrialized economy and is, in fact, as good as or better than the numbers from any other major economy. There is nothing in these results to prompt the Fed to contemplate a rate cut or even yet ending its now conditional tightening bias. This is the scenario that Mr. Bernanke has been promising since late last summer. And while the decrease in inflation has not satisfied the Fed, the GDP side is at fruition. The one caveat to this story is a falling dollar. A strong dollar and surging imports have helped keep a lid on inflation, especially consumer inflation. It is difficult for American manufacturers to raise prices if overseas competitors are present in the market with lower priced goods. As the dollar falls not only do the foreign manufactured goods rise in price from the gain in the exchange rate, but it permits American manufacturers to charge higher prices as well. A Fed rate hike to defend the Dollar is even farther off than a rate cut to defend the economy might be. A currency trader should never discount the Federal Reserve but current economic results do not add up to either an increase or a decrease in the Fed Funds rate for many months.

Market assumptions on central bank policies will have changed not a whit from this week’s statistics. And, with the exception of the NFP number the same could be said of the economic judgment underlying the Euro’s recent rise. However, the NFP exception is about as big an exception as you can have for the American economy. The weeks ahead will tell if the economists have once again underestimated the resilient US economy.

Economic Releases April 2-6 2007

United States

Initially nothing went right for the USD this week. Last Friday saw a flurry of positive reading from the US economy. Personal Income, Construction Spending and the Chicago Purchasers Index all arrived better than predicted and this had opened the possibility of more upbeat reading from the general economy. However this week a series of numbers came in not only lower than in previous months but also smaller than the market expectations. Monday’s March ISM Manufacturing Index at 50.9 slipped from the February result of 52.3 and disappointed market hopes of 51.5. March ISM New Orders at 51.6 was even further below Februarys 54.9 than the overall reading. There was little market reaction to the release. Last week’s Chicago Purchasers Index of 61.7, which elicited hopes for an upturn, did not carry over into the national numbers and seems to have been a local anomaly. February Factory Orders were likewise anemic at 1.7% barely recovering from January’s fall of 5.7%, which itself was a downward revision of the original -5.6% number. Perhaps the biggest disappointment was the March ISN Non Manufacturing Index. As recently as January the reading was 59.0, well over the long term average of 57.0 and giving promise that the consumer and service sector could carry the economy through the evident manufacturing slump. The February number had fallen to 54.3 but the median expectation for March was 55.0. The result of 52.4 denied even this modest hope. The ISM Manufacturing Index has had a 67% correlation with GDP over the past 17 years and the numbers would indicate a moderately growing economy of perhaps 2.5%. Pending Home Sales Index for February was the one positive surprising with a 0.7% rise to 109.3 from 108.5 in January and seeming to depict an underlying stabilization in the housing market.

The details of the NFP numbers were as impressive as the headline figure of +180,000. All large categories of employment gained: construction added 56,000 jobs, rebounding smartly from February’s loss of 61,000 jobs and raising the possibility that the drop in February was due to the uncommonly severe winter weather. Retail employment fell a modest 16,000 but health care, food service, federal and local government and education all added workers. The unemployment rate fell 0.1% to 4.4%; the actual rate was 4.395% Predictions had been for an equal rise to 4.6%. This rate matches the previous low in October 2006. The unemployment rate was last lower in May of 2001.

The March NFP figures combined with the revisions to January and February raised the monthly average for the first quarter from 138,000 to 152,000. This compares favorably with the fourth quarter of 2006 which averaged 155,000, though less than the third quarter average of 185,000. These are not numbers that would spur the Fed to adopt a rate loosening bias.

Eurozone

The March Reuters PMI Manufacturing Index at 55.4 came in a bit under the 55.8 forecast and slightly less than the 55.6 reading in February. The Producers Price Index for February was released almost as expected at +0.3% month on month (m/m) and +2.9% years on year (y/y). The median prediction had been +0.3% m/m and 2.8% y/y. January numbers were revised marginally higher the monthly number to +0.2% from +0.1% and the yearly to +3.1% from +2.9%. Retails Sales for the countries of the united currency were likewise a bit slower than forecasts, +0.3 m/m and +1.2% y/y as opposed to +0.6% m/m and 1.1% y/y. January results were also marked down from -1.0% to -0.8% m/m and from -0.1% to -1.1% y/y.

German manufacturing was much stronger than anticipated in February, expanding at 3.9% against the 0.5% expectation. This was the strongest result for German industry since 2004.

The Week Ahead

United States

It is an unusually sparse week for American economic releases. Wednesday brings the FOMC meeting minutes and though this generates interest it never brings forth a surprise. The crucial point to remember is that these are edited minutes not a transcript. The International Trade balance for February is released on Friday. It is expected to widen slightly to -60.3 billion from -59.1 billion in January. The Produce Price Index for March is also out on the last day of the week, the core number is expected to be +0.2%; February was +0.4%. The last statistic of note is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment number for April, 87.5 is forecast; March was 88.4.

Eurozone

Industrial Production figures for February are issued on Friday, the m/m number is thought to be +0.2%, the yearly number +4.0%; January’s statistics were -0.2 m/m and +3.7% y/y. EU commission forecasts for GDP growth in 2007 are a Wednesday release. The prediction for the 1st quarter is between 0.4% and 0.8%; the 2nd quarter between 0.5% and 0.9%; the 3rd quarter between 0.3% and 0.9%.

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[Mr. JOD]

GBP Strong as UK Treasury to Remove Tax on Foreign Profits.

GBP-related crosses traded higher as the UK treasury will permit UK-based multinational firms to repatriate foreign profits free of tax. USD gained a little ahead of Bernanke's speech later today.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION

Economic Releases:

• Swiss Unemployment Rate (Mar) out at 3.0% vs. 3.1% expected.
• Japanese Machine Tool Orders (Mar P) out at 9.5% vs. 16.5% previously.
• German Trade Balance (Feb) out at 14.2B vs. 15.0B expected.
• Australian Foreign Reserves (Mar) out at A$71.3B vs. A$68.2B expected.
• French Industrial Production Mom (Feb) out at 1.1% vs. 0.6% expected.
• French Manufacturing Production MoM (Feb) out at 1.4% vs. 0.7% expected.
• Norwegian CPI MoM (Mar) out at 0.6% vs. 0.4% expected.
• Norwegian CPI Underlying MoM (Mar) out at 0.7% vs. 0.4% expected.
• Norwegian PPI Incl. Oil MoM (Mar) out at 1.8% vs. 1.5% previously.
• US ABC Consumer Confidence out at -7 vs. -5 previously.
• DOE Short-Term Crude Outlook (Apr) out at 63.83 vs. 63.75 previously.
• Japanese Machine Orders MoM (Feb) out at -5.2% vs. -0.4% expected.
• Japanese Money Supply, Liquidity and Bank Lending figures generally a tad lower than expected.
• Japanese Current Account Total (Feb) out at 2417.5B vs. 2303B expected.
• Australian Home Loans (Feb) out at 0.3% as expected.
• Australian Investment Lending (Feb) out at 8.9% vs. 2.7% previously.
• Japanese Bankruptcies YoY (Mar) out at -0.6% vs. 5.5% previously.

Quoted at 08:30GMT.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION


GBP

Overnight the GBP gained considerably on back of speculation that the Bank of England will keep raising interest rates and a drop in measures of
volatility will encourage the so-called carry trade. The carry trade involves investors borrowing in low yielding currencies such as the yen to buy higher yielding assets. UK Retail sales grew in March at the fastest pace in 11 months, the British Retail Consortium said today, adding to speculation that we will see a rate hike at the coming meeting. We will buy GBPCHF on dips towards 2.4080, with a stop offer at 2.4050, targeting 2.42.

USD
The US currency has strengthened a tad, despite a drop in fixed income, ahead of Bernake's speech on financial stability later today. We expect hhim to continue with the same theme as in the last statement, which states a concern with the inflation as a more important theme as the lack of momentum in the growth. Yesterday Fed's Fisher came with some inflationary concerns in his speech in Texas, but it was expected, so we did not see any follow through in USD-related crosses. We are still bearish on the USD and will work to buy EURUSD at the break of 1.3431, stop offer at 1.3405, targeting 1.35.




Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.


EURUSDResist.1.36281.35211.34801.34291.33731.33081.3202SupportQuoted:
11 Apr 07
09:18 GMT

GBPUSDResist.1.99771.98371.97821.97831.96421.95571.9417SupportQuoted:
11 Apr 07
09:18 GMT

USDJPYResist.120.29119.67119.36119.26118.75118.45117.84SupportQuoted:
11 Apr 07
09:17 GMT

EURJPYResist.161.83160.78160.39160.15159.34158.67157.61SupportQuoted:
11 Apr 07
09:18 GMT

USDCADResist.1.16351.15611.15171.14671.14431.14141.1340SupportQuoted:
11 Apr 07
09:17 GMT

USDCHFResist.1.24521.23231.22441.21851.21151.20641.1935SupportQuoted:
11 Apr 07
09:18 GMT

AUDUSDResist.0.84470.83380.83020.82480.81930.81210.8013SupportQuoted:
11 Apr 07
09:18 GMT

NZDUSDResist.0.75240.73970.73500.72740.72220.71420.7015SupportQuoted:
11 Apr 07
09:17 GMT

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DAILY FORECASTS AND ANALYSIS BY ANGEL KOLEV
Apr 16 2007 01:04 am

EUR/USD and USD/JPY forecasts for today

EUR/USD (1.3549)
Trading range: 1.3485 / 1.3650
Trend: Upward
The dollar remains under heavy pressure and the traders worldwide prefer to sell dollars. The concerns for the world biggest economy, the bad economic situation and the expecting cut of US interest rates push the dollar low. We continue to expect break of 1.3668 in the coming days. For the moment the only one factor that should stop the falling dollar is the profit taken moment. But till then there is only one trading strategy and that is sell dollars.

USD/JPY (119.36)
Trading range: 118.55 / 120.55
Trend: Upward
The G-7 confirms our expectations that will not have positive news to help the yen. The yen will remain weak against the dollar and euro. Against the dollar we expect to see successive break of the level 120 and continue far to 124. The G-7 does not care for the exchange rates and that is very positive news to speculate making profit by the falling yen.

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Technical Analysis for Major Currencies

EURO

The euro moved up last time to reach to critical area, the technical indicators show that the euro in the over bought area which means the probability to move down is higher than to move up.

The trading range for today could be between the key resistance at 1.3570s and the key support at 1.3440s.

The general trend is up as far as 1.2640 remains intact targets now at 1.3500 and 1.3200 target then at 1.3420.

Support: 1.3525, 1.3508, 1.3477, 1.3453, 1.3432
Resistance: 1.3550, 1.3580, 1.3600, 1.3620, 1.3640

GBP

The pound reached to the key resistance level last time at 1.9990s from the bottom at 1.9780s, this move put the pound in the over bought area, which probably let the pound to drop down in any moment. But we still see the upside move until 1.9920s.

The trading range for today could be between the key resistance at 1.9950s and the key support at 1.9830s.

The general trend is up as far as 1.8850 and 1.8460 remains intact, targets will be at 1.9858 and 2.0000.

Support: 1.9850, 1.9830, 1.9805, 1.9775, 1.9750
Resistance: 1.9890, 1.9925, 1.9945, 1.9970, 2.0000

Recommendation: We expect buying sterling above 1.9860 with a target at 1.9920, stop loss below 1.9820.

JPY

The Japanese Yen dropped down last time to reach 118.15 support level, then it rebounded back towards the upside, due to this move we expect the Japanese Yen to move towards the upside today.

The trading range for today could be between the key resistance at 120.00 and the key support at 118.70s.

The general trend is down as far as 122.20 and 123.00 remains intact, targets will be at 117.00 and 115.00.

Support: 119.25, 119.10, 118.85, 118.60, 118.30
Resistance: 119.40, 119.68, 119.85, 120.00, 120.20

Recommendation: We expect buying USD/JPY above 119.25 with a target at 119.80 , stop loss below 118.70.

CHF

The SWISS Frank dropped down last time to reach to the key support level at 1.2070s then rebounded back until 1.2130s, therefore we expect the Frank to move towards the upside today.

The trading range for today could be between the key resistance at 1.220s and the key support at 1.2100s.

The general trend is down as far as 1.2680 remains intact, targets at 1.1875 and 1.1665.

Support: 1.2135, 1.2105, 1.2080, 1.2065, 1.2040
Resistance: 1.2162, 1.2183, 1.2200, 1.2220, 1.2255

Recommendation: We expect buying USD/CHF above 1.2130 with a target at 1.2180, stop loss below 1.2100.

CAD

Then Canadian dollar rebounded towards the upside last time since it couldn't breach the key support level at 1.1330s. Today we expect the Canadian dollar to move down.

The trading range for today could be between the key resistance at 1.1400s and the key support at 1.1280s.

The general trend is down as far as 1.1470 remains intact, targets will be at 1.1175 and 1.1030.

Support: 1.1345, 1.1328, 1.1313, 1.1280, 1.1259
Resistance: 1.1370, 1.1400, 1.1418, 1.1435, 1.1450

Recommendation: We expect selling USD/CAD below 1.1375 with a target at 1.1330, stop loss above 1.1415.

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