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FX Solutions Report Newsletter

Dear Trader,
FX Solutions is pleased to provide you with the accompanying Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis for the Friday, April 6, 2007 Non-Farm Payrolls report. In this comprehensive document, we offer you fundamental and technical analysis as information for the Non-Farm Payrolls report.
Reminder: FX Solutions will be hosting a post Non-Farm Payrolls Report live recap Friday, April 6th at 10:30 AM EDT. To register, click here.

4/04/2007 - Technical Analysis for the Non-Farm Payrolls Report
James Chen, Lead Technical Analyst - FX Solutions.

Here, I will provide preliminary technical analysis for three major currency pairs in the run-up to Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report. As always, I will be utilizing FX Solutions' FX AccuCharts system for conducting these analyses. For this pre-analysis, I will be looking solely at longer-term daily charts. For the post-report webinar that we will be conducting on Friday, however, I will include the use of shorter-term intraday charts (e.g., the 15-minute chart) to view price action immediately after the announcement.
EUR/USD –

(EUR/USD Daily Chart – Uptrends in green, downtrends in red, pattern formations in blue, horizontal levels in yellow, 100-period SMA in light blue.)
Since the last Non-Farm Payrolls report in March, we have witnessed a continued strengthening of the euro against the U.S. dollar on the EUR/USD daily chart (see chart above).
Within the last month, price touched and bounced decisively off the confluence of support factors that I noted in last month’s Non-Farm Payrolls pre-report analysis. Since that uptrend bounce off this support confluence, which actually occurred exactly on the date of the most recent Non-Farm Payrolls Report (March 9, 2007), the pair shot up with significant momentum and has hardly looked back since. Within the last couple of weeks, it even reached a long-term high of 1.3410, easily taking out the lofty highs that were established in December of last year.
This support confluence, which currently still represents valid price support levels, is visually evident on the chart above. These support factors includes the 100 period SMA (in light blue), the top yellow support/resistance line, and the long-term uptrend line represented by the longest solid green uptrend line, which has yet to be broken since it was initiated around half a year ago in October of 2006. Also included in this support confluence is the top red downtrend line which originally acted as downtrend resistance but then turned into uptrend support after the resistance was broken to the upside.
Currently, we continue to find the EUR/USD solidly entrenched in an unmistakable uptrend channel, denoted by the dotted green parallel lines, that has been in place since the beginning months of 2007. Trend traders who have played this daily chart uptrend, entering long on multiple pullback opportunities to the uptrend support line, have been well rewarded.
And for the past week or so, as evidenced near the right edge of the chart, we have recently been experiencing a clear triangle consolidation (marked by the blue triangle pattern lines) within the general uptrend. At this juncture, we should be waiting for an impending breakout or breakdown of this triangle, as all triangles are ultimately meant to be broken. Friday’s NFP report should provide this break, whether up or down, if it does not occur even before this report.
The Fibonacci retracement levels (when drawn from the 1.2865 trough on 1/12/2007 to the most recent long-term peak at 1.3410 on 3/22/2007) show critical immediate support at the 23.6% fib retracement level of approximately 1.3280, and then further down at the even more critical 38.2% level of around 1.3200. Other essential support can be found at the dotted green uptrend support line, which represents the most recent significant uptrend line. And then further support exists at the aforementioned solid green uptrend line, which, again, represents the solid uptrend extending from October of last year. The 100-period SMA may also lend further support, as it has been serving extremely well as a dynamic support line since the beginning of the year.
On the upside, we have resistance at the very significant previous high of around 1.3400. Beyond this, there are few other significant resistance levels that can be pinpointed, as the EUR/USD has not reached this height since way back in March of 2005.
As for the oscillators, most indications are currently pointing slightly down. This includes both the MACD and the Stochastics, the latter having recently descended from overbought territory. But since we are currently high in the (dotted green) uptrend channel, this indication may just be hinting at a normal pullback return to the uptrend support line, and then ultimately a possible continuation of the uptrend.
Barring a decisive breakdown of this stable uptrend channel, the technicals indicate that uptrend continuation is a good possibility. In any event, the fundamental reaction to the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday will give us a better read as to which direction the EUR/USD pair may follow in the coming weeks and months.
GBP/USD –



GBP/USD Daily Chart – Uptrends in green, downtrends in red, pattern formations in blue, horizontal levels in yellow, 100-period SMA in light blue.)
The GBP/USD daily chart above shows somewhat of a different picture. In contrast with the EUR/USD, which has achieved a moderately angled uptrend that appears very stable, Cable is displaying a much steeper recent uptrend channel (green, dotted parallel lines) since last month’s Non-Farm Payrolls report. Traditionally, steeper trends have often proven to be less stable and less sustainable than more gradual trends. So the question becomes, how much longer can this steep run-up continue?
Midway through this run, price broke decisively through the red downtrend resistance line on March 20th, which turned out to be a nice breakout trade.
After this breakout, the pair even approached the decade-plus high of 1.9913 that was reached on January 23rd of this year. This very fast approach since the last Non-Farm Payrolls, along with what looks like a possible triple-top formation, may presage an ultimate correction back down. The Stochastics oscillator supports this outlook wholeheartedly, as it is well-entrenched in overbought territory and pointing unmistakably down.
If the pair does not continue in this severe uptrend for much longer, we can be on the lookout for an impending breakdown below this steep uptrend channel, which may make for a possible short-sell breakout opportunity.
Other than that, much like the EUR/USD, Cable is also extremely well-entrenched in a long-term uptrend, as is evidenced by the longest green uptrend line, which was initiated back in June of 2006.
And even more so than with the EUR/USD, there is not much precedence for the dizzying heights at which we now find the GBP/USD. The top yellow horizontal line at around 1.9870 is the most immediate resistance line. And since we are currently near the recent 14-year high in Cable, there is not much in the way of further concrete resistance other than the actual peak at 1.9913, as mentioned above.
To the downside, we have several possible support levels. First, we have the 100 SMA, in light blue, that may act as some support. Further down, we have the red downtrend line that previously acted as downtrend resistance, but may act as future support after the recent breakout. Then, of course, we also have the long-term uptrend support represented by the longest green uptrend line. And then, beyond that is the very stable support/resistance line at around 1.9160 that has remained valid for many months now, alternating as support and resistance for the pair since mid-year 2006. This level is represented by the middle yellow horizontal line. And finally, in between we have several significant Fibonacci retracement levels that may possibly play a role in the pair’s direction going forward.
As traders, we can certainly watch for how price reacts to all of these levels, and then possibly play bounces or breakouts as appropriate. Once again, Friday’s NFP will lend more clarity to how the technicals will play out on Cable.
USD/JPY –

(USD/JPY Daily Chart – Uptrends in green, downtrends in red, pattern formations in blue, horizontal levels in yellow, 100-period SMA in light blue.)
And finally, we have the USD/JPY. Currently, there is not a great deal to say about this pair from the daily chart perspective other than the fact that it has been trying its best to claw its way back up from the severe freefall it experienced in late February and early March that shook out even some of the most ardent dollar/yen carry traders.
In this attempt at a recovery, we are now seeing a short uptrend channel forming (dotted green parallel lines) that looks suspiciously like a large bearish flag formation. And if this flag formation is indeed the case, we should be on the lookout for a break to the downside, as flags are often seen as continuation patterns, continuing the trend in place before the flag formed. But the Non-Farm Payrolls report should clarify whether or not this may be the case.
Other than that, this short uptrend has definitely been established, and with-the-trend bounces off the dotted support line can be waited for and traded just as well as breakouts below this support. On the upside, we have resistance around the psychologically-important 120.00 level, approximately represented by the top yellow horizontal line.
Again, the reaction to the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls report will help determine whether this attempted recovery in the recently-battered dollar/yen will be sustained, or if the pair will continue its freefall.
And for all of the dollar-based currency pairs, once we get Friday’s news out of the way, the tone will be set once again for the technicals to re-assert themselves.

4/04/2007 - Fundamental Analysis for the Non-Farm Payrolls Report
Joseph Trevisani, Chief Market Analyst - FX Solutions

The range of estimates for the March Non Farm payrolls due this Friday, 70,000 to 220,000, with a median of 133,000, reflects the uncertainty surrounding this edition of the currency markets favorite economic indicator. Most measures of the American economy have shown a marked decline in the past two months. The Institute for Supply Management Indexes, for Manufacturing and Services, have fallen from 51.4 and 54.4 in December to 50.3 and 52.4 in March respectively, barely maintaining the expansionary over 50 reading. The Services ISM number is well below its historical average of 57. Both March numbers are consistent with sub 2% GDP growth level in the first quarter.
Factory Orders, Durable Good Orders, and Retail Sales are all lower than in 4th quarter of 2006. Last week’s Chicago Purchasers Index of 61.7, the one bright spot in recent indicators, was not repeated in the country wide ISM numbers released Monday and Wednesday. Consumer Sentiment figures, while maintaining relatively strong levels, 107.2 for the March Conference Board number and 88.4 in the last University of Michigan poll, are the most volatile of the forward looking indicators. With gasoline prices edging higher again, housing moribund and tax season upon us, consumer happiness is likely to take a few blows in the next months.
The Non Farm Payrolls number and its reflection in the unemployment rate have been a consistent plus for the US economy. But even here the average has fallen sharply, a third since the 3rd quarter of 2006. In that quarter the economy produced an average of 185,000 jobs per month, in the 4th quarter the average was 155,000 and in the first two months of this year only 122,000 jobs were filled per month. Except for the housing and construction sectors which have suffered net job losses in almost every month and the manufacturing industries which have weakened recently, the balance of the economy had been expanding and creating new jobs. It is this ability of the economy to keeps jobs plentiful that has the greatest supportive effect on consumer spending and sentiment.
The ADP National Employment Report for March issued Wednesday showed an increase of 106,000 in private payrolls. Median expectation had been 135,000. This result is correlated with 115,000 -120,000 outcome in the NFP number.
The US economy has encountered stresses in almost all areas since the beginning of the year. It would be odd if some of these conditions do not begin to affect the job numbers. Look for the NFP to under perform predictions this Friday and for the Dollar to suffer the consequences.
To register for the February Non-Farm Payrolls report live recap on Friday, April 6th at 10:30 AM EDT, click here.

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[Mr. JOD]

Barclays Bank Report

[Tarek egy fx]

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العفو ياغالى
دور فى دفاترك كده طلعلنا كام تقرير زى نجمنا كده ونواظب نحطهم

[Mr. JOD]

Saxo Bank Report

[Mr. JOD]

DailyFx Report

US Dollar – The service sector ISM index dropped to a four year low in the month of March while factory orders grew by a weaker than expected 1 percent in the month of February. These reports indicate that the US economy is not out of the woods, but at the same time, these disappointments were not enough to trigger a major reversal in the US dollar. Instead, the sharp drop in layoffs reported by Challenger Gray and Christmas and the rise in employment reported by payroll agency ADP has everyone focusing their attention on Friday’s non-farm payrolls release. According to Challenger, layoffs fell by 24.6 percent in the month of March. The last time layoffs dropped by this much was in November, December of 2006 and January of 2007. In those 3 months, on average, we saw monthly job growth of 189k. We already have a NFP Preview up on DailyFX and encourage you read more about what we expect. The four week moving average of jobless claims for the month of March was 315k, compared to 338k in February. The last time the average in claims were this lean was back in December 2006 and January 2007, when US companies added 226k and 146k jobs to their payrolls respectively. The improvement from February to March also tells us that at bare minimum, job growth in March should be stronger than the previous month. Frigid temperatures in February caused many construction sector projects to be halted. The temperate weather in March should have encouraged the resumption of many of these projects. A deeper look at the ISM number reveals a sharp rise in prices paid, validating the Federal Reserve’s concerns about inflation. The rise in inflation was primarily driven by the rebound in oil prices, but this could end now that prices are beginning to fall as geopolitical tensions subside. This morning, Iran released the 15 British naval personnel that they captured. With another war in the Middle East averted, the release has extended the drop in crude prices. Looking ahead, the US economic calendar continues to be very light with only jobless claims and the Monster.com Employment Index on the calendar. This should keep the price action in the currencies reflective of the market’s expectations for payrolls.

Euro – The Euro managed to erase all of yesterday’s losses thanks to combination of stronger Eurozone data and weaker US data. In contrast to the service sector in the US, the service sector in the Eurozone actually saw faster growth in the month of March. Accelerated activity in France and Germany offset a mild decrease in Italian service sector activity. Germany also reported a sharp rise in factory orders due to some unusual demand for big ticket items. The only disappointment was in Eurozone retail sales, which fell victim to weaker spending. Overall, the impact of the Value Added Tax on Germany and the Eurozone as a whole continues to be limited. This keeps a rate hike by the European Central Bank in play as ECB members continue to remain hawkish. Garganas suggested this morning that the central bank could raise its growth forecast while Liebscher warned that price risks are absolutely to the upside. German industrial production is the only Eurozone release expected tomorrow. The stronger factory orders number could drive a better than expected IP number tomorrow. Meanwhile, the release of the UK naval crew has sent the Swiss franc tumbling against the Euro. EUR/CHF is now trading at a fresh 7 year high.

British Pound – Interestingly enough, we did not see much strength in the British pound today despite the release of the UK naval crew. This may be due to the fact that most traders do not expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates tomorrow despite continual upside surprises in UK data. Consumer confidence hit a 4 month high while the service sector activity index accelerated from 57.4 to 57.6. The economy may be improving, but it has not improved enough to convince the majority of the monetary policy committee members to vote in favor of higher rates. When rates are left unchanged, the central bank does not release a statement. We do however expect the balance of votes to shift in favor of a rate hike. The last minutes released from the March meeting revealed an 8-1 voting record with the 1 dissenter favoring a rate cut. The minutes from tomorrow’s meeting will be released on April 18th.

Japanese Yen – The performance of the Japanese Yen was mixed today with the currency rising against the US dollar and British pound but falling against the Australian and New Zealand dollars. There was no data released last night. In his speech at an economic seminar, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Muto said nothing new about the central bank’s monetary policy. He indicated that rates will be adjusted as the economy expands but will remain very low for some time. Leading indicators is the only piece of noteworthy data expected tonight. Economic growth has been lackluster since the beginning of the year and we expect the report to reflect that.

Commodity Dollars (AUD, NZD, CAD) – The big activity today was in the commodity currencies. The Australian dollar hit a fresh 10 year high, dragging the New Zealand dollar up with it. This represents a very strong recovery after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged took the AUD/USD down to a low of .8065. The out performance of the Australian dollar is primarily due to the sharp rise in gold prices, which hit a 5 week high. The Canadian dollar ended the day unchanged but a closer look at the currency’s activity reveals a sharp intraday reversal as well. Unsurprisingly, oil prices are down after the release of the UK soldiers. The Canadian dollar should be the main currency in play tomorrow since Canada is the only country releasing meaningful data; namely employment and IVEY PMI. Jobs and manufacturing sector activity are both forecasted to increase but the pace of job growth is expected to slow. Recent strength in the Canadian dollar should also begin to weigh on the manufacturing sector, raising the risk for a softer IVEY PMI number.

[سمير صيام]

NEWS TRADE

[Mr. JOD]

ForexNews Report

Euro Rallies on ECB Rate Outlook by Yan Xu


The euro rises across the board as the European Central Bank interest rate outlook is much more favorable than other major countries given the steady economic growth in the euro zone. The single currency accelerated its rally after it broke a major resistance at 1.34 versus the dollar. The euro climbed to a two year high at 1.3440 against the dollar, and approached an all time high versus the yen.

German industrial production unexpectedly rose for a fourth straight month in February, reinforcing the expectations for a faster economic growth in the nation. In contrast, the market predicts a slow down in the US economy and the overall sentiment of the dollar is pretty bearish. US interest rate futures shows traders priced in a 60% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark rate from 5.25% to 5% in August, up from 55% odds yesterday.

Since the trading volume before the US job report and long holiday weekend is lower than usual, the move may be a little bit exaggerated.

The market will focus on the US nonfarm payroll data due 08:30 EST tomorrow.

EURUSD will face interim resistance at 1.3450, followed by 1.3480 and 1.35. Additional ceilings will emerge at 1.3520, backed by 1.3550. Support starts at 1.34, backed by 1.3380, 1.3350 and 1.3320. Subsequent floors are eyed at 1.33.

USDJPY encounters interim resistance at 119, backed by 119.30 and 119.50. Subsequent ceilings will emerge at 119.80, followed by 120 and 120.50. On the downside, support begins at 118.50 and 118.30, followed by 118. Additional floors are eyed at 117.80, backed by 117.50 and 117.30.

GBP Fell after Rate Announcement

The sterling dipped 50 pips to 1.9670 versus the dollar after the Bank of England announced this morning to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, disappointing some who had speculated a surprise rate hike.

GBPUSD encounters interim resistance at 1.9730, backed by 1.9750, and 1.9770. Subsequent ceilings will emerge at 1.98, followed by 1.9830 and 1.9850. On the downside, support begins at 1.97, followed by 1.9670 and 1.9650. Additional floors are eyed at 1.9620, backed by 1.96 and 1.9580.

[Mr. JOD]

DailyFX

9 Year Trendline and Fibonacci Resistance Call the Top in EUR/CAD

Friday, 06 April 2007 14:59:53 GMT

9Year Trendline and Fibonacci Resistance
Short Term Wave Count Confirms Trend

The monthly chart shows that the EURCAD was rejected at a 9year trendline last month. Additionally, the rally from 1.3487 that began in early 2006 reversed at the 61.8% retracement of 1.6976-1.3496. An impulsive decline from the top and a 3 wave flat correction points the near term trend down as well. A break of 1.5307 instills confidence in the bearish outlook.
Current Price: 1.5379


The monthly chart shows that the EURCAD was rejected at a 9year trendline last month. Zoom in on the monthly chart and you will see that last month’s candle was a shooting star (a bearish reversal candle). The evidence points to a major top at last month’s high at 1.5688.

The weekly chart also presents evidence that points to a top and reversal. The rally from 1.3487 that began in early 2006 reversed at the 61.8% retracement of 1.6976-1.3496. Last month’s high at 1.5688 is critical to the bearish case.

The short term wave structure is bearish as well with an impulsive decline from the top and a 3 wave flat correction (this is a rare irregular flat) that make up waves 1 and 2. If this count is correct, then wave 3 down is underway, and measured objectives are at 1.5220 (where 3 = 1) and 1.5041 (where 3 = 161.8% extension of 3). The alternate count is below, which would be eliminated if 1.5307 is taken out.

[magedology]

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