تقارير ايليوت ويف للأزواج الرئيسية

[أبو عـمـر]

أسعد الله صباحكم جميعا

مزيد من الحصريات
وتقارير شركة ايليوت ويف للعملات الرئيسية
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[أبو عـمـر]

EUR \ USD
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MONTHLY
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Update For: January 22
Posted On: Fri, 22 Jan 2010 15:11:19 GMT
EURUSD
Last Price: 1.3785
Support: 1.3700 (s), 1.3585 (s), 1.3485 (f), 1.3075 (m)
Resistance: 1.3840 (s), 1.3858 (f), 1.4027 (s), 1.4196 (s)

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The extent of the decline from above 1.6000 highlights the three-wave advance from 2001. Three-wave movements are corrective so the euro could remain under pressure for some time as a test of the low .80s is possible.

If we assumed the rally from 2000/2001 was a five even a correction would likely reach lower, probably toward the 1.1640 area.

[abo-adel]

بارك الله فيك

[أبو عـمـر]

WEEKLY
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Update For: February 6
Posted On: Sun, 07 Feb 2010 00:32:20 GMT
EURUSD
Last Price: 1.3785
Support: 1.3700 (s), 1.3585 (s), 1.3485 (f), 1.3075 (m)
Resistance: 1.3840 (s), 1.3858 (f), 1.4027 (s), 1.4196 (s)

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Weakness below 1.3485 will bolster the larger bearish outlook that's based on the flat correction from late-2008. With the flat complete the euro is headed below 1.2329.

[أبو عـمـر]

DAILY
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Update For: Wednesday
Posted On: Tue, 09 Feb 2010 20:13:15 GMT
EURUSD
Last Price: 1.3785
Support: 1.3700 (s), 1.3585 (s), 1.3485 (f), 1.3075 (m)
Resistance: 1.3840 (s), 1.3858 (f), 1.4027 (s), 1.4196 (s)
===

The euro recovery continued Tuesday but it continues to look corrective. Notice that it retraced 61.8% of the prior decline from 1.4027. We still view the rise as a correction. A decline below 1.3700 should be enough to signal the resumption of the larger bear trend.

From Friday:

The euro finished the week lower, the fourth consecutive weekly decline. Based on the third wave count the decline has further to go. Wave three would be 1.618x wave one at 1.3076.

As it stands, the decline from 1.5147 is in three waves. It could be a correction. That count has been relegated to alternate status since the larger backdrop (see Weekly page) suggests the euro put in a major peak in November and is headed substantially lower.

[أبو عـمـر]

بارك الله فيك

شكرا لك اخوي ابوعادل

[أبو عـمـر]

USDJPY
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MONTHLY

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Update For: February 6
Posted On: Sun, 07 Feb 2010 01:03:52 GMT
USDJPY
Last Price: 89.35
Support: 88.55 (s), 88.25 (f), 87.37 (s), 84.82 (s)
Resistance: 91.29 (s), 91.88 (s), 93.79 (s), 95.10 (f)
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The multi-year triangle has kept us favoring the downside for several years. There is no reason to alter the bearish outlook. Keep in mind that bear trends do not unfold in straight lines, it's usually not that easy, and there will be rebounds along the way. We've already seen a couple since mid-2007. But we haven't seen a recovery that exceeds the expectations for a correction.

[أبو عـمـر]

USDJPY
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WEEKLY
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Update For: February 6
Posted On: Sun, 07 Feb 2010 00:50:36 GMT
USDJPY
Last Price: 89.35
Support: 88.55 (s), 88.25 (f), 87.37 (s), 84.82 (s)
Resistance: 91.29 (s), 91.88 (s), 93.79 (s), 95.10 (f)
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The overlapping decline from June 2007 may be a diagonal triangle. The pattern can be counted complete but the overall outlook suggests the dollar will fall beneath 79.92. Lacking evidence that a failure bottom has formed we'll continue with the bearish outlook.

[أبو عـمـر]

USDJPY
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DAILY
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Update For: Wednesday
Posted On: Tue, 09 Feb 2010 20:40:15 GMT
USDJPY
Last Price: 89.35
Support: 88.55 (s), 88.25 (f), 87.37 (s), 84.82 (s)
Resistance: 91.29 (s), 91.88 (s), 93.79 (s), 95.10 (f)

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Barring a rally above 91.29 the three-wave recovery from 84.82 should be viewed as a correction, subject to complete retracement. Dollar weakness relative to the yen, and the weakness of other currencies relative to the yen, seems to go hand in hand with investor sentiment toward risk; they are shunning risk

[أبو عـمـر]

DOLLAR INDEX
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MONTHLY
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Update For: January 22
Posted On: Fri, 22 Jan 2010 15:16:25 GMT
DX
Last Price: 79.747
Support: 79.56 (s), 79.44 (f), 78.68 (s), 78.02 (s)
Resistance: 80.88 (m), 81.46 (s), 83.52 (m), 83.72 (f)

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We've been favoring the upside based on the three-wave fall since July 2001. The dip below 77.68 satisfied the expectations for a correction and we're looking for the resumption of the larger dollar rally. It could be a long one.

[أبو عـمـر]

WEEKLY
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Update For: February 6
Posted On: Sun, 07 Feb 2010 00:59:36 GMT
DX
Last Price: 79.747
Support: 79.56 (s), 79.44 (f), 78.68 (s), 78.02 (s)
Resistance: 80.88 (m), 81.46 (s), 83.52 (m), 83.72 (f)

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There are five waves down since March and a possible flat correction since November 2008. Both counts suggest the dollar has bottomed and headed substantially higher.

"Just a correction should see the 81.50 area, probably better. The flat calls for a sustained dollar advance that extends above 90.00."

[أبو عـمـر]

DAILY
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Update For: Wednesday
Posted On: Tue, 09 Feb 2010 22:02:03 GMT
DX
Last Price: 79.747
Support: 79.56 (s), 79.44 (f), 78.68 (s), 78.02 (s)
Resistance: 80.88 (m), 81.46 (s), 83.52 (m), 83.72 (f)
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The dollar correction carried into Tuesday but the setback still looks corrective and, having retraced nearly 61.8% of the prior advance represents a sufficient correction. The dollar pairs show a similar dollar correction, retracing 38.2% of the prior advance or 61.8% of the prior advance in the case of the other pairs we follow. The evidence is not strong enough to call the dollar setback anything more than a correction.

The strong dollar outlook stands. We should not be surprised by a correction given the pace and extent of the dollar rally since mid-January and November.

[أبو عـمـر]

GBPUSD
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MONTHLY
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Update For: January 22
Posted On: Fri, 22 Jan 2010 15:12:58 GMT
GBPUSD
Last Price: 1.5701
Support: 1.5535 (s), 1.5415 (m), 1.4950 (f), 1.4769 (m)
Resistance: 1.5748 (s), 1.5754 (f), 1.5876 (f), 1.6072 (s)
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Notice that the rebound Since January has retraced half the prior decline. Let's see if the popular 50% rule works out here.

[أبو عـمـر]

WEEKLY
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Update For: February 6
Posted On: Sun, 07 Feb 2010 00:45:00 GMT
GBPUSD
Last Price: 1.5701
Support: 1.5535 (s), 1.5415 (m), 1.4950 (f), 1.4769 (m)
Resistance: 1.5748 (s), 1.5754 (f), 1.5876 (f), 1.6072 (s)
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The decline below 1.5709 makes the decline from above 1.7000 more than three waves and possibly more than a correction. Given the general outlook for the dollar our preference is for sterling to decline.

The alternate count has a double zigzag from 1.7044 near an end.
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[أبو عـمـر]

DAILY
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Update For: Wednesday
Posted On: Tue, 09 Feb 2010 20:33:20 GMT
GBPUSD
Last Price: 1.5701
Support: 1.5535 (s), 1.5415 (m), 1.4950 (f), 1.4769 (m)
Resistance: 1.5748 (s), 1.5754 (f), 1.5876 (f), 1.6072 (s)
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The sterling recovery has retraced 38.2% of the decline from 1.6072 and may represent wave four in the decline sequence from 1.6278, itself a third wave. The structure of the rise looks corrective. Sterling remains vulnerable and we a pair of fourth and fifth waves should keep it under pressure.

From Friday:

The decline below 1.5709 eliminates the possibility of a bullish triangle from August. The lone remaining bullish count is a double zigzag which must end near current levels; targets rest in the 1.5415-1.5544 area.

Based on the patterns visible elsewhere sterling is likely to continue lower through the target area. The chart to the right shows how it's easy to count sterling as slipping over the falls, in the midst of a third of third wave decline.