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[almater]

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FX Thoughts - Cable and Aussie - 23/11/05
1307 IST or 0737 GMT or 0237 EST

Cable @ 1.7235/40....Turning up?
------------------------------
R: 1.7248 / 1.7290 / 1.7305-20
S: 1.7172-64 / 1.7129 / 1.7081
The Cable found Support at 1.7065, just above the 200-week MA at 1.7056, as
pointed out yesterday. It has bounced sharply from there and is testing the
previous “range resistance” at 1.7248. Above this it finds crucial Resistance at
1.7290 on the Daily chart. Should that also be broken, a further rise towards
1.7390 may be expected. For now, while the market remains below 1.7290, it could
dip back to 1.7180 as well. That said, the chances of an upturn have increased.
A dip towards 1.7180-30 might be worth buying into.



Aussie @ 0.7378/83....Buying some
---------------------------------
R: 0.7391-97 / 0.7433
S: 0.7359-46 / 0.7327
The Aussie is now trading just above the System Resistance (now Support) at
0.7373. A Day Close above this might indicate a further rise to 0.7433-50. It
finds strong support at 0.7359-46. A Day Close below that would be required to
suggest that today’s upmove was false. The Overnight weakness in the US Dollar,
has reversed our bearish view on the pair and we prefer to buy today.

Trade:
Buy AUD 30K at current level, SL at 0.7340, TP 0.7424.





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[almater]

FX Thoughts - Part I - 23/11/05
Morning Edition
1228 IST or 0658GMT or 0158 EST

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Euro @ 1.1832/5....Testing System Resistance
---------------------------------------------
R: 1.1826-39 / 1.1875-92
S: 1.1760-45 / 1.1700-1685
The Euro has risen and is testing System Resistance at 1.1835. A Day Close above
this would bring up a target of 1.1959-69, being Trend Resistance connecting the
1.2592 high (02-Sep) with the 1.2173 high (28-Oct). In case the Resistance holds
(or there's a false spike), the Euro may spend time between 1.1839-1685 for a
few days.



$-Yen @ 118.56/60....Uncertain
------------------------------
R: 118.96-119.05 / 119.43-53-59
S: 118.57-48 / 118.32-21 / 117.92
Dollar-Yen again ran into sellers above 119.45 yesterday. In hindsight, we
should have retained the SL at 119.63 on our Short at 119.13, instead of exiting
prematurely at 119.34. Since we've been running big losses, the urge was to
minimise potential losses. This clouded our thinking. As it stands, we continue
to be susceptible to the same emotions and considerations as all other Traders.
Not a good thing, of course. We need to work more on our psychology and systems.

Coming back, we see immediate Support at 118.57. A break would lead to a fall
towards 118.32-21, Trendline Support. Below that it would target System Support
at 117.92. While the market remains above 118.57-48 however, there are chances
of a rally towards 119.00



Euro-Yen @ 140.30/5.....Complete indecision
----------------------------------------------------
R: 140.50 / 140.70
S: 140.00-139.93 / 139.62-58
As it turns out, the Cross indeed found Support above 139.25 yesterday and moved
up, past 140.00 to 140.50. Immediate range now 140.00-50. Wider range
139.58-140.70. The 3-day and Weekly Candles have long wicks and no body,
indicating complete indecision. No trades.




$-Swiss @ 1.3094/9....Watch Support at 1.3052
----------------------------------------------
R: 1.3129-45 / 1.3164-73 /
S: 1.3052 / 1.3036-32 / 1.3014
As it turns out, the Dollar fell overnight from 1.3244. It now finds System
Support at 1.3052. The market has already seen a Day Low (so far) of 1.3062 and
has bounced back a bit. Should the market test the 1.3052 Support again and
break it, it may target 1.3014, the statistically projected Max Low for the day.
While it remains above 1.3052, however, a rally towards 1.3143 may be possible.





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