تقارير شركة رفكو .. تفضل وخذ نسختك وإن شاء الله فيها فائدة طيبة بإذن الله

[سيف الرحمن]

تفضل نسختك ولا تنسانا من الدعاء لوالدي ووالد أبو عاصم أيضا إنه الله يشفيهم من كل بلاء ومكروه .. وبعدين تابعوا معايا الكلام هذا اللي جاني على الإيميل من شركة رفكو ..

RefcoFX Economic Release Alerts 08-08-05

1) Japanese Machine Orders
2) Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Monthly Report
3) German Current Account
4) German Trade Balance
5) U.K. Visible Trade Balance
6) Canadian Housing Starts
7) FOMC Rate Decision

Japan Machine Orders sa (MoM) (June) (5:00 GMT, 1:00 EDT)
Consensus: 6.5%
Previous: -6.7%

Outlook: Following the dismal drop in May, Japanese machinery orders are poised for a rebound. As companies carry out plans to increase capital spending, orders are increasing in anticipation of higher domestic and foreign demand. June's industrial production numbers pointed at this direction as they showed continued strength in the companies' capital spending. It rose a seasonally adjusted 1.5 percent from the previous month after falling 2.8 percent in May. Manufacturers such as Matsushita Electric Industrial Co., the maker of Panasonic televisions, and auto-parts company Denso Corp. are expanding in anticipation of higher sales in the U.S. and Asia.

Previous: Japan's companies cut orders for machinery in May. Private machinery orders, excluding shipping and utilities, fell a seasonally adjusted 6.7 percent from April, beating the economists' expectations of just a 2 percent decline. Manufacturers led the decline in May after they increased orders by 14.4 percent in April. Subsequently, weakness that month can be explained by the big increase from the chemical sector in April, which may have distorted the figure. Large manufacturers were planning to increase spending by 16.2 percent, while non-manufacturers plan to raise investment by 6.1 percent.


BoJ Monetary Policy Report (August 9) (6:00 GMT, 2:00 EDT)
Consensus: 0.00%
Previous: 0.00%

Outlook: The Bank of Japan is expected to keep the same cash target of 30-35 trillion yen, and zero interest rate, that we've seen since the beginning of 2004. Even though corporate profits and wages are on the rise, it would be too early for the central bank to let go of any accommodation. The economy has just begun achieving positive growth again in the past three quarters after two quarters of contraction. Also, consumer price inflation has only been positive for four months out of the last seven years. The latest comments from BoJ Governor Fukui included the statement that core consumer prices would have to stop declining for a "few" months before the bank would be convinced that deflation was eradicated. The fact that wages have started increasing now hints at a positive effect on consumer prices in the months ahead. However, this also means that a lower cash target probably wouldn't come around until at least 2006.

Previous: At their last meeting just two weeks ago, the Bank of Japan kept its interest rate at zero percent once again with the reserve target of 30-35 trillion yen. There was probably debate over whether to lower the target rate to 27-32 trillion yen, as has been the case in several of the recent meetings. However, outside of the official statement, we heard some positive comments from Governor Fukui in a press conference following the meeting. He stated "a possibility that [core consumer prices] may rise year-on-year from late this year to early next year" followed by a disclaimer saying that this assessment was not shared by all of the Bank's governors. The implications for monetary policy aren't quite so clear right now because the Bank's criteria remains undisclosed. Even if inflation returns, the BoJ is determined to not raise rates until they "make sure that the economy will never again be in deflation."


German Current Account (JUN) (6:00 GMT, 2:00 EDT)
Consensus: 6.0B
Previous: 5.2B

Trade Balance (JUN)(6:00 GMT, 2:00 EDT)
Consensus: 13.0B
Previous: 12.0B

Outlook: As more and more positive economic data is released out of Germany, the current account and trade balance are likely to be optimistic as well in June as exports prove to be a catalyst for growth. Rising global demand along with a weaker euro, which has made German goods more competitive, look to potentially contribute substantively to overall growth. Sales abroad became increasingly important in June, as consumer spending and confidence within Germany dwindled, hurting retailers and manufacturers alike. There is some risk of narrowing due to the increasing values of imports, as energy prices rose in June compared to the previous month, hurting exporters'. The price of oil also endangers demand from abroad, as the income of both companies and consumers is cut down.

Previous: The current account and trade balance for Germany shrank in May as imports expanded to a revised 5.6 percent and exports couldn't keep up, rising a revised 3.7 percent. This was not all bad news, however, as the export number made a significant increase from May's 0.5 percent decline with expectations for June set at 0.5 percent. Companies that thrive on global sales, such as BMW, saw increases in sales as high as 14 percent for the month due to a lower euro, which in June was 12 percent lower against the dollar for this year. Until domestic spending sees a true comeback, large firms will find it necessary to maintain export growth to prosper.


UK Visible Trade Balance (JUN)(08:30 GMT, 04:30 EDT)
Consensus: -4900M
Previous: -4962M

Outlook: The UK visible trade deficit looks to narrow slightly as a weaker national currency boosts sales abroad. Likewise, early signs of improved business confidence in the Euro zone may spell improved future production in Europe's second largest economy. Recent manufacturing data supports this claim, as production grew 0.2 percent in June, while numbers for May were revised to the same 0.2 percent growth. Despite this, analysts do not expect any groundbreaking changes in UK trade balance as deficits hover above all-time lows.

Previous: The UK trade marginally shrunk in May after ballooning to 5.1 billion pounds in April. An easing exchange rate likely boosted exports as the British Pound backed off of levels near all-time highs against the U.S. dollar. Likewise, improved manufacturing and industrial production figures further narrowed trade deficits as producers sold more goods abroad. Despite the improvement, experts do not predict any fundamental change in overall trade numbers for Europe's second largest economy.


Canadian Housing Starts (JUL)(12:15 GMT, 8:15 EDT)
Consensus: 227.0K
Previous: 237.2K

Outlook: Canadian housing starts look to continue their strength as government officials raise their forecasts for growth. Canada's Federal Housing agency upped its estimate to 218,900 new homes this year. Monthly home sales and prices have set record highs in 2005 as the average rate of a five-year fixed mortgage fell to 5.7 percent last month, the lowest matched last year and in 1955. Overall, the Bank of Canada said in July that housing growth would add 0.2 percentage points to growth this year. This is well above January estimates saying that housing would make no contribution to expansion.

Previous: Housing starts gained more than expected at 7.2 percent in June led by construction of multi-family homes. Construction began on an annualized 237,000 housing units in June, and figures for May were revised up to 225,000 at a yearly pace. Last year, work began on 233,431 homes, a 17-year high, but Canada Mortgage and Housing said starts would slow this year on slower job growth and higher mortgage rates. Many believe that June's growth was unusually high and not likely to be sustained, but such expansion is definitely bullish for the Canadian economy and only makes future BoC rate hikes more likely.


FOMC Rate Decision (August 9) (19:15 GMT, 2:15 EDT)
Consensus: 3.50%
Previous: 3.25%

Outlook: The 25 basis point rate hikes are now becoming routine as the Fed will probably raise rates by this amount again at tomorrow's meeting. With the positive economic data that we've seen since their last meeting at the end of June, there's all the more reason to keep raising rates. This even opens up the possibility that the current cycle will bring benchmark rates beyond the neutral rate of 4%. In the last meeting, "some participants expressed concern that, with policy still accommodative, the underlying pace of inflation might be in the process of stepping up." Aside from inflation concerns, the purpose of monetary policy is also to bring GDP growth to neutral territory. Therefore, if productivity and growth stay elevated, there is no reason for the central bank to stop at neutral rates. Rather, the Fed may need to overshoot beyond the neutral level to bring the economy back to a more sustainable long-term growth rate. Although tomorrow's official statement won't explicitly allude to this, it certainly may give a hint as to where the monetary authorities are taking the interest rate.

Previous: On June 30th, the Federal Reserve raised rates again by 25bp, bringing the fed funds rate to 3.25%. This is the ninth consecutive rate hike since tightening began last June. Looking at the meeting minutes, it seems that inflation still remained a debated issue as some governors feared higher inflation risks from the currently still accommodative policy. As for the growth outlook, the central bankers believe that "the expansion remains firm" while the labor markets are still improving gradually as seen in the disappointing non-farm payroll figures that occur concurrently with improvements in the unemployment rate. Aside from the Fed's official comments, there still exists the issue of housing prices, which are remaining robust while mortgage rates and long-term interest rates stay tame. All things considered, the notion that there are more rate hikes to come in the next few months is well supported.

[abofaris73]

يعطيك العافية يا ابو انس