توصيات جين كبنتل ليوم 9 \ 5 \ 2008

[مبتداء فوركس]

Highlights

• Oh Man..Wait Until You Hear This...
• Booked USDJPY Profits - Looking For Wave 2
• 1420 In S&P 500 and 3.95% 10 yr Rejected..FINALLY!
• Dollar Crushed As Oil Approaches $124//bbl
• Short USDJPY Looking for 104 Break

Friday, May 09, 2008 - New York Update - 1:23 PM EST Ok traders, my USDJPY sell scenario #2 went into play last night. At around 2:00 AM EST I was stopped into our short position at 103.40 with 103.85 stop losses. It's a good thing I was not awake for it, because I had a huge position on and it immediately came in 103.60 bid. I definitely would have been sweating it, because prior to the trade I got permission from my fund COO to trade larger than my normal size. But in the end our stops were in a good spot and the selling continued to below 103.00. Now, here is where my morning got interesting. The 102.70 break in USDJPY was potentially very big - it was the April 22 lows - and our initial target was 102.50. Trade Balance numbers came out and they were slightly better than expected, which is dollar positive, yet the dollar couldn't hold a bid. Oh boy did my greed kick in because I decided to strap on an even larger position. I stopped in for more USDJPY and I was now size short USDJPY at an average of 103.05 as it was trading 102.60. My unrealized profit on this trade was roughly equivalent to what I have made in all of 2008. Oh yeah, greed and adrenaline were raging. So as you probably know 102.60 was the low and shorts begin to cover at 8:30 AM EST. A half hour later I cut the position with lunch money for profits, along with EURUSD hedge with a small profit.
Do I regret the way I played it? Not at all. It was a good setup that we have been waiting for really since the March 17th low. Many pieces of the puzzle fell together in the last few days, so I was swinging for the fences on this trade. And if 102.50 broke, we were golden and I would have booked just a gigantic trade. It just wasn't meant to be. But you know what- I do not regret a single thing about the trade. And actually something very positive that I can take from this trade, is that once the position moved against me, my trading mentor's words kept ringing through my head. “Constantly reassess the situation”. Well the situation was that USDJPY was back above 102.70 April 22 lows, and the S&P's were also back above 1382 April 30th lows. My premise for being in the trade was no longer valid, so without hesitation I cut the trade with a few points profit.

The benefit of sharing my trading experiences is twofold. First, it helps me to improve as a trader because I am forced to think about my trades (both before and after the trade goes on) before putting it down on paper. Secondly, I hope that you will learn something from my experiences -both the negative the positive- and you're trading will improve as we grow together. See you next week. -TG-
Thursday, May 08, 2008 - New York Close - 6:34 PM EST I think the last few days have caught a lot of people on the wrong side of the equity, bond, commodity, and currency markets. Many traders thought the S&P would break through 1420, as the 10 yr yield would back above 4.0%. Neither has happened. And then tonight, AIG dropped an earnings bomb and S&P futures are lower in the overnight session. I think USDJPY is setting up to get pushed back below 102.00 as we trade 103.76. Basically I am working two scenarios to get short USDJPY.
Scenario #1: Sell USDJPY on a bounce. I would like to get short a full USDJPY position at an average of 104.65, with a 105.15 stop risking 50 points. The minimum target is 103.45 for a gain of 120 points.

Scenario #2: Sell a USDJPY breakdown through 103.50. I would like to stop into a full USDJPY position at around 103.40 with a 103.85-area stop loss. Total risk is 45 pts with a minimum target of 102.50 for a gain of 90 points.

Ok a couple words about the strategy here. I will treat these as an OCO, which means if one trade series is triggered, the other is canceled. Also, because we are working with fairly large stops, I am going to hedge the trade by also getting short EURSUD if either USDJPY trade scenario is triggered into action. I will get short a one-third position of EURUSD at the time my USDJPY goes into play with approximately 25 point stop losses. If the dollar is in play to the upside tonight, I could lose on my USDJPY short, but it will be cushioned by my EURUSD short. Or, because the Yen carry trade is extremely offered and EURJPY moves with USDJPY to the downside, there is a chance I can also make a little profit on the EURUSD trade. Back tomorrow. -TG-

Thursday, May 08, 2008 - New York Update - 11:56 PM EST Traders, we took a nice chunk of out USDJPY last night. I went home short USDJPY at 104.75 after the bond market and stock market began to move from our key levels. Provided you could stomach the overnight volatility, 100+ pips profit were made available to you. I posted a commentary on the FOREX Insider this morning to cover all USDJPY shorts at 103.50, as we currently trade about 35 points higher. This marked the end of a nicely formed wave 1 down. From here, I am looking for a 3-wave reaction back to a minimum target of 104.25 to begin looking for the end of wave 2. The end of wave 2 is the ideal spot to get short ahead of the mighty wave 3 down. Watching and waiting for this setup. Back tonight. Todd - Senior Technical Strategist (I can get used to this title)
Wednesday, May 07, 2008 - New York Update - 3:08 PM EST Bond and equity traders just got caught with their hand in the cookie jar. Traders who thought they saw the light at the end of credit tunnel have been selling bonds and moving into equities since March, despite rocketing energy prices, inflation, a crumbling real estate market. Well it seems today it all came to a head. I have been tracking the tight relationship of the yield on the US 10 year bond and USDJPY spot rate. As the price of the underlying bond moves higher as investors become more risk adverse, traders will sell the dollar and buy yen sending the USJDPY carry trade lower. The 10 year yield has a very significant resistance level of 3.95% just ahead. A failure will send bond prices and USDJPY lower. A closer look at the 3.95% yield shows a wave 4 flat that is scheduled to terminate right here. Further, the S&P 500 looks to be failing after a second test of the 1420 resistance level that I have been going on and on and on about. Remember my little rant yesterday about a strong stock market making no sense whatsoever? Today I get satisfaction. A trendline break of 1405 puts the proverbial nail in the coffin so to speak, which should send market higher pulling the 10 year yield away from that 3.95% resistance level. Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

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