Saxo Bank

[saleh]

Forex Trading Strategies


Published: Sep. 13 2004, 07:19 GMT

EUR/USD risks breach below 1.2250, which triggers fall to 1.2160/50; GBP/USD vulnerable to 1.7820 - 1,7800 pullback



Euro/US Dollar

EURUSD (1.2260 @ 06:59 GMT)

EUR/USD - the single currency has been to 1.2306 but pulled back, and rests above the 1.2250 support. There is a good chance that the single currency will fall below 1.2250, and in so doing, the currency pair may correct back all the way to 1.2160/40. This is not a given, mind you, only a cautionary effort. But if the single currency falls below 1.2250, then watch the single currency gravitate lower. In the near-term, we turn more bullish once the single currency goes above 1.2310 -- which is shaping up to be a well-touted technical resistance. We reiterate however, that there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2500 hypothetical resistance is taken out.

Protect your long positions by raising the trailing stoploss to just below crucical support -- which in this case is 1.2250.


Bought EUR at 1.2027 and 1.2078. Move stop-loss from 1.2220 to 1.2240. Keep profit target at 1.2500.






British Pound/US Dollar

GBPUSD (1.7940 @ 07:02 GMT)


GBP/USD - the currency pair met resistance at 1.8022 and has been to 1.7960 since then. Watch 1.7925 level, which should provide it support. If unable to hold, the currency pair may slide all the way back to 1.7820. The uptrend will remain suspect until it takes out 1.8100.

Raise your trailing stoploss to 1.7910. just below crucial support.


Bought GBP at 1.7833. Move stop-loss from 1.7900 to 1.7910. Keep profit target at 1.8250.






US Dollar/Japanese Yen

USDJPY (109.54 @ 07:03 GMT)




USD/JPY - the currency pair found support at 109.30 and may again bounce back to 110.30 area. However, the pair should resume the downtrend from there -- it is still at 109.60. The next targeted level may be 108.75 base, but any breach of support should bring about 107.00 quickly.

The currency trades in a range, and may rise back towards the top of the range. Tactics: cover short positions and wait for opportunity to enter at higher levels.



رسالة جتني من ساسكو بنك اليوم

[الحاكم بأمر الله]

بارك الله فيك

[saleh]

Forex Technicals:


- EUR/USD - the single currency fell below the 1.2255 support as feared, initiating a short-term downward correction. There is a good chance that the single currency will correct back all the way to 1.2160/40. This is not yet a given, but we do see minimum decline to 1.2200, and if the level isd taken out, then watch the single currency gravitate lower towards the mid-1.2100s. In the near-term, we turn more bullish once the single currency goes above 1.2310 -- which has indeed shaped up to be a firm trendline technical resistance. We reiterate further, that there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2500 hypothetical resistance is taken out.


- GBP/USD - the currency pair retests the 1.8022 resistance after PPI for August showed that input prices climbed 1.6%(m/m) in August, pushing the annual rate of inflation to 4.8%. With inflation pressures mounting, this may lead the Bank of England to hike interest rates by a further 25 basis points this year. The currency rose on short-covering; but watch 1.7925 support still --- if unable to hold, the currency pair may slide all the way back to 1.7820. The uptrend remains suspect until it takes out 1.8100.


- USD/JPY - the currency pair did again bounce back to 110.30 area and may extend gains to 110.60.65. However, the pair should resume the downtrend from there. The next targeted level may be 108.75 base, but any breach of support should bring about 107.00 quickly.


- USD/CHF - no change in the short-term oultlook -- the currency pair found support at 1.2520 and may rise back to 1.2680 - 1.2700 later in the week. But it should reinstate the downtrend thereafter, and may be bound for 1.2380. The downtrend reassert soon -- expect further declines to 1.2200 further out.


- USD/CAD -- the currency pair is indeed rising -- we scale up the target to 1.3000 - 1.3020. Nonetheless, this rally is countertrend -- the downtrend resumes thereafter, and may lead to the 1.2680 base further out.


- AUD/USD - the currency saw resistance at .7000 and may indeed fall back, but probably just to .6940, and not to the .6900 - .6885 support area. A rally toward .7080 is still expected to resume thereafter.


- NZD/USD - the currency pair has been to as high as .6605, but looks vulnerable to a pullback to .6520/10, perhaps not to .6480. The uptrend resumes thereafter and the Kiwi make a move towards the .6750 top.


- EUR/JPY - the cross has been to 134.90 and may pullback more modestly to 134.00 area. But the cross has made known its intentions to extend to 136.00; it may retrace thereafter possibly to 135.00 then make a new uptick to 137.50.


- EUR/CHF - the cross may yet fall back towards 1.5400 - 1.5390 -- but the rally should resume from there and will keep the configuration positive. It should trigger an advance further beyond the 1.5450 top at some point. The cross should then push through to1.5500 and higher -- perhaps to 1.5600.


- EUR/GBP - the cross may find new support at .6760 -- lower than expected -- but the uptrend resumes from those lower levels, and should take out the .6850 top thereafter. We expect it to eventually push through the range, which may trigger a rally to .7000.


- GBP/JPY - the rally indeed found support at 196.40 and has been to 198.65. The cross should rise further to 199.70 next. It should make a downside correction thereafter after which a new uptrend focuses at 205.00 resisatnce area.


- GBP/CHF - any rally above 2.2700 suggests that the sell-off is over, and the cross looks up to 2.3000 focus once again. But break below 2.2450 trough looks dangerous and may eventually yield 2.2100. The cross still looks weak.










News, data, references and commentaries compiled from Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Dow-Jones, CBSMarketWatch, Briefing.com, and Economy.com

Euro/US Dollar

EURUSD (1.2266 @ 08:26 GMT)
EUR/USD - the single currency bounced back, in lock-step with the U.S. treasury markets. It may retest the 1.2306 top, but may still be susceptible to a pullback to 1.2200 area thereafter. The rest of the short-term view kicks in thereafter -- if 1.2200 level is taken out, then watch the single currency gravitate lower towards the mid-1.2100s. In the near-term, we turn more bullish once the single currency goes above 1.2310 -- which has indeed shaped up to be a firm trendline technical resistance. We reiterate further, that there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2530 hypothetical resistance is taken out. This level is shaping up to be the major resistance in the current investment cycle. Take out 1,2530 top in turn, and you get a run-up to the 1.2925 high we saw earlier in the year.
Stand aside.
British Pound/US Dollar

GBPUSD (1.7987 @ 08:26 GMT)

GBP/USD - the currency pair is firmer, as the market reassess the odds of further BoE rate hikes down the road -- a consequence of mounting inflation pressures -- which could provoke a further 25 basis point hike this year. The currency may rise back to 1.8040/50, but watch still for a decline to 1.7920 area thereafter. The next upmove should focus next at 1.8100 - 1.8150 resistance area. The uptrend remains suspect until it takes out 1.8100 - 1.1850 resistance band.


Raise your trailing stoploss to 1.7960. just below crucial support.


Bought GBP at 1.7833. Move stop-loss from 1.7910 to 1.7950. Keep profit target at 1.8250.
US Dollar/Japanese Yen

USDJPY (109.82 @ 08:28 GMT)



USD/JPY - the currency pair fell further than expected, but should find support at circa 109.60. It may yet rise back to 110.50/60 area thereafter. No change in the view from there -- the pair should resume the downtrend after completing the multi-week consolidation phase. The next targeted downside level may be 108.75 base, but any breach of support should bring about 107.00 quickly.

[saleh]

15/9/2004

Euro/US Dollar

EURUSD (1.2231 @ 06:36 GMT)
EUR/USD - the single currency failed to make any breakthrough after momentum generated by the whopping U.S. current account deficit faded. The single currency may yet drift lower towards the 1.2210 - 1.2200 area, as expected. But this may be just marking time, ahead of the Empire State manufacturing data, business inventories, and industrial production later on the day. The data on all three is expected to be lackluster, and potentially positive for the euro and other major currencies, and the bond market, which is expected to break through important resistance levels soon. Watch the very high correlation between euro and U.S. 10-yr notes -- and a significant breakthrough in bonds may just push the euro over the 1.12306 top. No change in the outlook -- however, we turn more bullish only ater the single currency goes above 1.2310 -- which has indeed shaped up to be a firm trendline technical resistance. We also continue to reiterate that there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2530 hypothetical resistance is taken out. This level is shaping up to be the major resistance in the current investment cycle. Take out 1,2530 top in turn, and you get a run-up to the 1.2925 high we saw earlier in the year.

Buy half of long stake at current level (1.2231); Buy the rest at 1.2210. Stoploss: 1.2120. ObjectiveL 1.2500

Buy EUR at 1.2231. Stop-loss: 1.2120. Profit target: 1.2500.
British Pound/US Dollar

GBPUSD (1.7917 @ 06:39 GMT)

GBP/USD - the currency pair has been to as high as 1.8031 after a whopping U.S. current account deficit hammered the dollar. But the momentum faded, and the rally ran into a brick wall. So the currency pair has been lower, and has already gone below our 1.7950 ideal support. It may drift lower further to 1.7900 area -- as liquidation takes place ahead of the U.S. numbers today. But longer-term outlook still look bright -- positive fundamentals may be at work here -- the odds of further BoE rate hikes down the road have rose again as a consequence of mounting inflation pressures -- which could provoke a further 25 basis point hike this year. The next target may be 1.8150. The next bigger move, post 1.8150, should focus next at 1.8500 - 1.8550 resistance area. The uptrend remains suspect until it takes out 1.8150.

Buy half of lonf stake at current level (1.7917); Buy the rest at 1.7900; Stoploss: 1.7800; Objective: 1.8150





Buy GBP at 1.7917. Stop-loss: 1.7800. Profit target: 1.8150.
US Dollar/Japanese Yen

USDJPY (109.57 @ 06:42 GMT)



USD/JPY - the currency pair fell further and has been to 109.40 but recovered and tests resistance at 109.80 currently. The rebound may extend to 109.90 but no change in the view nonetheless -- the pair should resume the downtrend after completing the multi-week consolidation phase. The next targeted downside level may be 108.75 base, but any breach of support should bring about 107.00 quickly.

Sell at current level (109.57); sell some more at 109.85. Stoploss: 110.80; Objective: 107.00

[saleh]

USD/CHF rallies further to 1.2750 - 1.2775 -- but the upmove remains counter-trend, probe of 1.2520 base come thereafter.
The Swiss National Bank may raise its benchmark rate for second time in three months as the Swiss economy recovers from contraction. SNB may vote to increase the 3-mo Libor rate by 25 bp to 0.75 pct.

Forex Technicals:


- EUR/USD - the strong September New York manufacturing data hammered the single currency to as low as 1.2136. The single currency's ideal 1.2200 support failed, but perhaps 1.2100 will do a better job at containing the temporary greenback juggernaut. We should see a rebound to 1.2170 - 1.2200 area thereafter, but if a +triangle scenario+ is correct, then further declines to 1.2050 may be forthcoming. This is just one view of course -- if the single currency makes it above 1.2300 at any time, then the outlook becomes more positive. However, as we repeatedly said earlier, we turn more bullish only after the single currency goes above 1.2310 -- which has indeed shaped up to be a firm trendline technical resistance. We also continue to reiterate that there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2530 hypothetical resistance is taken out. This level is shaping up to be the major resistance in the current investment cycle. Take out 1,2530 top in turn, and you get a run-up to the 1.2925 high we saw earlier in the year.


- GBP/USD - the currency pair fell further after a double whammy from weak U.K. unemployment data, which fell for the 15th straight month in August, and the general firming up of the greenback. The currency may fall to at least 1.7700, perhaps even 1.7650. Look for a bounce back to 1.7900 thereafter. We will take it from there.


- USD/JPY - the currency pair rallied to as high as 110.40 and is downward-bound once again. The currency pair will probably decline and probe 109.40 - 109.50 trendline support -- which incidentally is now part of a huge +triangle pattern+ since the 3rd week of August. No change in the view then -- the pair should resume the downtrend after completing the multi-week consolidation phase. The next targeted downside level may be 108.75 base, but any breach of support should bring about 107.00 quickly.


- USD/CHF - the ongoing rally has been to 1.2720, but may extend further into 1.2750 - 1.2775 area. But we expect the 1.2800 - 1.2850 resistance area to hold -- the downtrend resumes thereafter, and may be bound for 1.2380 next. Expect further declines to 1.2200 further out.

- USD/CAD -- the recovery has been to as high as 1.3031 but fell sharply thereafter -- a signature response from the currency pair -- which incidentally supports the theme that the upmove was merely countertrend. The downtrend should resume thereafter, and may lead to the 1.2680 base further out.


- AUD/USD - the pullback went deeper than expected -- it has been to .6937, and may yet fall to .6930/20. But support should firm up soon -- a
rally towards .7100 - .7130 is still expected to take place thereafter.


- NZD/USD - the currency pair indeed held out well -- considering some really serious losses in some of the major pairs. It has been to .6563 and may yet fall further to .6560/50. But the uptrend should resume thereafter -- the wide U.S. current account gap, and the outlook of further RBNZ tightening, should lead the rally when the dollar recovery ran out of steam, which may happen very soon. The uptrend should resume shortly -- the Kiwi should eventually make a move towards the .6750 top, then extend gains towards the .7100 high for the year. If you have to pick a medium-term bet, long Kiwi should be a good candidate from both technical and fundamental perspective.


- EUR/JPY - the cross did not complete the corrective pullback at 133.80 and has been to as low as 133.45. It may fall further to 133.30/25. No chane in view -- the cross should rally thereafter -- the next major focus being the 137.00 - 138.00 major resistance.


- EUR/CHF - the cross probably found a significant support at 1.5408, and has been to 1.5450. Support should show up at 1.5420 and should
initiate an advance beyond the 1.5455 top at some point. The cross should then push through to1.5550 and higher -- perhaps to 1.5600.


- EUR/GBP - the cross found new minor support at .6825; the uptrend resumes thereafter and should eventually push through .6856, which may trigger a rally to .7000.


- GBP/JPY - the currency pair has been to as low as 195.15 and looks like it may fall further towards 195.00 -- we are still hoping that a base will form soon. And once its done, the uptrend should get back on track, makes a go at 198.65 top, then make a beeline for the 205.00 target.


- GBP/CHF - the cross found support at 2.1485, and should have another pass at the 2.2700 resistance. Any rally above 2.2700 suggests that the sell-off is over, and the cross looks up to 2.3000 focus once again. But break below 2.2450 trough looks dangerous and may eventually yield 2.2100. The cross still looks weak and the current sideways trade may be followed by further declines.



Euro/US Dollar

EURUSD (1.2149 @ 05:11 GMT)

EUR/USD - the strong September New York manufacturing data hammered the single currency to as low as 1.2136. The single currency's ideal 1.2200 support failed, but perhaps 1.2100 will do a better job at containing the temporary greenback juggernaut. We should see a rebound to 1.2170 - 1.2200 area thereafter, but if a +triangle scenario+ is correct, then further declines to 1.2050 may be forthcoming. This is just one view of course -- if the single currency makes it above 1.2300 at any time, then the outlook becomes more positive. However, as we repeatedly said earlier, we turn more bullish only after the single currency goes above 1.2310 -- which has indeed shaped up to be a firm trendline technical resistance. We also continue to reiterate that there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2530 hypothetical resistance is taken out. This level is shaping up to be the major resistance in the current investment cycle. Take out 1,2530 top in turn, and you get a run-up to the 1.2925 high we saw earlier in the year.

Bought EUR at 1.2181 and 1.2231. Move stop-loss from 1.2120 to 1.2085. Keep profit target at 1.2500.
British Pound/US Dollar

GBPUSD (1.7782 @ 05:24 GMT)

GBP/USD - the currency pair fell further after a double whammy from weak U.K. unemployment data, which fell for the 15th straight month in August, and the general firming up of the greenback. The currency may fall to at least 1.7700, perhaps even 1.7650. Look for a bounce back to 1.7900 thereafter. We will take it from there.






Stand aside.
US Dollar/Japanese Yen

USDJPY (109.93 @ 05:26 GMT)



USD/JPY - the currency pair rallied to as high as 110.40 and is downward-bound once again. The currency pair will probably decline and probe 109.40 - 109.50 trendline support -- which incidentally is now part of a huge +triangle pattern+ since the 3rd week of August. No change in the view then -- the pair should resume the downtrend after completing the multi-week consolidation phase. The next targeted downside level may be 108.75 base, but any breach of support should bring about 107.00 quickly.




Sold USD at 109.57 and 109.96. Keep stop-loss at 110.80. Keep profit target at 107.00.

[saleh]

Forex Technicals:


- EUR/USD - the currency did fall further, support coming in at 1.2120, pretty much per expectation. We also saw a rebound to 1.2200, at which level, the single currency pauses for reassessment of the technical situation. One of the possibilities we were tracking is a large, multi-month triangle which commenced in June. A final downmove to 1.2050 area is needed to complete the pattern, and that is why we hesitate to jump into a bullish mode just now without feeling out the market as to the chances of a downtick happening. So we put in markers to guide us in the decision-making process. Any rally above 1.2270 makes it unlikely that a final downleg to 1.2050 will happen. On the other hand, a fall from the 1.2200 resistance which takes out 1.2140 highly suggests that such a move to 1.2050 will likely take place.

This sounds like a prescription for analysis paralysis, but actually it creates situations for short-term trades with very sharply delineated parameters. For instance, a long trade here at circa 1.2187 may have a stoploss at say 1.2115, or even 1.2135 if risk averse. Or you can initiate longs at a break of 1.2270. Conversely, you can start selling at break of 1.2140, looking for that final move to 1.2050. The slightly longer-term outlook is slightly different however. We favor the outlook which eventually leads to a break of 1.2310, at which point the bias to the upside becomes virtually certain. And on a larger overview, we still maintain that there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2530 hypothetical resistance is taken out. This level is shaping up to be the major resistance in the current investment cycle. Take out 1,2530 top in turn, and you get a run-up to the 1.2925 high before year-end.


- GBP/USD - the currency pair is still savoring a major sentiment reversal after the U.K. retail sales rose 0.6%(m/m) in August, and bested expectations for a 0.4% fall. The technical conditions are more stark here, and are fairly straight-forward. A break of 1.8030 top triggers a new series of advances -- there is no barrier between 1.8030 and 1.8500. We should see a follow-through to 1.8030 from here (1.7945).


- USD/JPY - the currency pair did go on to probe 109.40 trendline support, and may cause a small rally back to just under 110.00 -- this is the general expectations if the triangle pattern we spoke about earlier has not been completed at the most recent sojourn to 110.40. We will take a chance that the pattern is complete, and so we expect the currency pair to break through 109.40 thereafter, and initiate a new series of declines to the downside, which first targets the downside base at 108.75, then breaches support to bring about 107.00 quickly.


- USD/CHF - the rally did extend further into 1.2750 and has been lower since then. There is still a chance that the rally may go further towards 1.2800 - 1.2850 resistance area. The downtrend resumes thereafter, and may be bound for 1.2380 next. Expect further declines to 1.2200 further out.


- USD/CAD -- the sell-off from the 1.3031 high continues to accelerate. The small pause at 1.22885 should give way to more declines later, with
the 1.2680 base as next focus.


- AUD/USD - support is now well-established at .6935, and the worst from here, assuming further declines, is a retest of the .6935 base. The outlook becomes significantly more positive if .7050 resistance is taken out. The currency may just go on a do a probe later in the day. A rally towards .7100 - .7130 is still expected to take place thereafter.


- NZD/USD - no change in view, as the currency prepares for a test of the .6640 top. The currency should accelerate higher as a consquence of a breakthrough. The wide U.S. current account/trade gap, and the outlook of further RBNZ tightening, should continue to underpin the rally as the dollar runs out of steam. The uptrend should be reaffirmed shortly -- the Kiwi should eventually make a move towards the .6750 top, then extend gains towards the .7100 high for the year. If you have to pick a medium-term bet, long Kiwi should be a good candidate from both technical and fundamental perspective.


- EUR/JPY - the cross has been to as low as 133.20 and may have indeed bottomed out. No change in view -- the cross should rally from here -- the next major focus being the 137.00 - 138.00 major resistance.


- EUR/CHF - the cross ratcheted up to 1.5467, and should continue the upwards course. The cross should then push through to1.5550 and higher -- perhaps to 1.5600.


- EUR/GBP - the cross found support at .6780, but allow for further decline to .6770 - .6760. Nonetheless, the uptrend resumes thereafter and should eventually push through .6856, which may trigger a rally to .7000.


- GBP/JPY - the currency pair may have bottomed at 195.15. A base has already formed -- the uptrend should get back on track, makes a go at 198.65 top, then make a beeline for the 205.00 target.


- GBP/CHF - the cross finally consolidates after it broke through the 2.2700 resistance; we might see the rally extending further from here (2.2765). Resistance effectively reside at just below 2.2800, and if taken out, we reinstate a 2.3000 target.






================================================== ====


Euro/US Dollar

EURUSD (1.2193 @ 07:30 GMT)

EUR/USD - the currency did fall further, support coming in at 1.2120, pretty much per expectation. We also saw a rebound to 1.2200, at which level, the single currency pauses for reassessment of the technical situation. One of the possibilities we were tracking is a large, multi-month triangle which commenced in June. A final downmove to 1.2050 area is needed to complete the pattern, and that is why we hesitate to jump into a bullish mode just now without feeling out the market as to the chances of a downtick happening. So we put in markers to guide us in the decision-making process. Any rally above 1.2270 makes it unlikely that a final downleg to 1.2050 will happen. On the other hand, a fall from the 1.2200 resistance which takes out 1.2140 highly suggests that such a move to 1.2050 will likely take place.

This sounds like a prescription for analysis paralysis, but actually it creates situations for short-term trades with very sharply delineated parameters. For instance, a long trade here at circa 1.2187 may have a stoploss at say 1.2115, or even 1.2135 if risk averse. Or you can initiate longs at a break of 1.2270. Conversely, you can start selling at break of 1.2140, looking for that final move to 1.2050. The slightly longer-term outlook is slightly different however. We favor the outlook which eventually leads to a break of 1.2310, at which point the bias to the upside becomes virtually certain. And on a larger overview, we still maintain that there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2530 hypothetical resistance is taken out. This level is shaping up to be the major resistance in the current investment cycle. Take out 1,2530 top in turn, and you get a run-up to the 1.2925 high before year-end.

Bought EUR at 1.2181 and 1.2231. Keep stop-loss at 1.2085. Keep profit target at 1.2500.
British Pound/US Dollar

GBPUSD (1.7925 @ 07:32 GMT)

GBP/USD - the currency pair is still savoring a major sentiment reversal after the U.K. retail sales rose 0.6%(m/m) in August, and bested expectations for a 0.4% fall. The technical conditions are more stark here, and are fairly straight-forward. A break of 1.8030 top triggers a new series of advances -- there is no barrier between 1.8030 and 1.8500. We should see a follow-through to 1.8030 from here (1.7945).






Stand aside.
US Dollar/Japanese Yen

USDJPY (109.64 @ 07:34 GMT)



USD/JPY - the currency pair did go on to probe 109.40 trendline support, and may cause a small rally back to just under 110.00 -- this is the general expectations if the triangle pattern we spoke about earlier has not been completed at the most recent sojourn to 110.40. We will take a chance that the pattern is complete, and so we expect the currency pair to break through 109.40 thereafter, and initiate a new series of declines to the downside, which first targets the downside base at 108.75, then breaches support to bring about 107.00 quickly. .

Sold USD at 109.57 and 109.96. Move stop-loss from 110.80 to 110.10. Keep profit target at 107.00.

[أسامه عبده]

شكرا لك أخوي صالح على هذا المجهود :good:

[الحاكم بأمر الله]

السلام عليكم ورحمة الله

بارك الله فيك أخ صلاح على هذا المجهود

لكن أخى صلاح عندى مشكله أرجو أن تساعدنى فيها

أنا بيوصلنى على الأيميل توصيات ساكسو ولكن عن 3 عملات فقط (اليورو & الين & الباوند )

ما السبيل إلى باقى التوصيات
أريد باقى توصيات العملات الأخرى الأسترالى والفرنك0000000000


أخوك ياســـــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــر

[saleh]

Published: Sep. 20 2004, 08:00 GMT
EUR/USD still susceptible to a pull back to 1.2050 - 1.2030; USD/CHF may yet rise to 1.2830 - 1.2850

DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH TODAY: Sept 20 - Europe



- Earnings growth at Europe's largest companies may slow this quarter as the highest unemployment in five years hobbles consumer spending and oil-price gains threaten growth in the region's biggest export markets. Third-quarter earnings at Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index companies will increase an average 21 percent from the same period last year, slowing from an average 27 percent gain in the second quarter, said JCF Group, which is based in London and Paris and compiles European analyst surveys. Europe's 9 percent jobless rate coincides with what BP Plc Chief Executive John Browne Friday called the end of the era of cheap oil. After a quarter when two-thirds of Stoxx 50 members, including L'Oreal SA, beat estimates, shoppers are scaling back just as oil prices inflate costs. The last Stoxx 50 member to report for the most recent period will be Tesco Plc tomorrow.


- French household spending probably rose in August and consumer confidence may have advanced in Italy to its highest level this year as higher exports boosted demand, surveys of economists showed. French consumer spending probably rose 0.3 percent last month, according to the median estimates of economists. An Italian confidence index likely advanced to 102 from 101.7 in August, the median of 20 forecasts showed. France's statistics office in Paris and the Rome-based Isae Institute publish their reports on Wednesday. Spending by consumers in France may have peaked as unemployment remains near a 2 1/2-year high and demand in Germany, its biggest export market slumps. Purchases probably dropped 2.2 percent in July after a June surge, the survey showed. In Italy, the government last week reported increased industrial production, suggesting the economy may be picking up.


- OAO Yukos Oil Co., Russia's biggest oil exporter, will lower crude-oil deliveries to China National Petroleum Corp. this month and supply no oil in October because the Russian company can't pay for transportation, said Sergei Prisyazhniuk, Yukos's chief China representative. Yukos, which earlier agreed to supply 400,000 metric tons a month, will cut deliveries by 150,000 tons, or 38 percent, this month, Prisyazhniuk said. Plans for November shipments haven't been concluded, he said. European customers who receive crude oil via railway may also face cuts in supply, he said, declining to give any more details. Yukos' shipments of 250,000 tons a month to China Petrochemical Corp. won't be affected, he added.


- U.K. house prices were virtually unchanged in the four weeks ended Sept. 11, property Web site Rightmove reported, reinforcing evidence that five interest-rate increases since November are capping home-price inflation. The average asking price for a home was 192,316 pounds ($345,418) in the period, about the same as in the previous four weeks and following a 2 percent decline in the period ended mid- August, Rightmove said. Average prices have risen 16 percent over the past 12 months. Over the four-week period, prices fell in western regions of Britain and greater London, where prices fell 0.7 percent, while gains occurred in the north, east and south, Rightmove said. The biggest climb was in the East Midlands region, where prices advanced 1.5 percent.


- Crude oil futures rose, extending Friday's 3.9 percent gain, because of concern refinery and production shutdowns caused by Hurricane Ivan will reduce U.S. fuel supplies. Ivan, which struck Alabama on Thursday, cut U.S. oil output by at least 5.1 million barrels last week, government figures showed. While the storm missed Louisiana's drilling platforms and refineries, many were shut for safety reasons. The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, the biggest U.S. crude-oil import terminal, was closed last week because of the storm. Crude oil for October delivery rose 30 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $45.89 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:51 a.m. Singapore time.






FX Market Summary -



The dollar rose against the yen and the euro in Asia on expectations the Federal Reserve will lift interest rates tomorrow and signal it plans further increases. The U.S. currency appreciated 3.5 percent this year versus the euro and 2.6 percent against the yen as Fed policy makers raised the overnight lending rate among banks twice to 1.5 percent from a four-decade low of 1 percent. Reports on orders for business equipment and home construction this week will probably provide evidence the U.S. economy is gaining strength. Against the yen, the dollar rose to 110.02 at 1:05 p.m. in Tokyo, from 109.82 late Friday in New York. It also gained to $1.2170 per euro, from $1.2187.

Friday' summary: The dollar had a solid day. The greenback added nearly 0.6% vs. the Canadian dollar, rose 0.3% vs. the Japanese yen and gained 0.1% against the euro. The U.S. dollar has regained some lost ground against the euro, to trade recently around 1.2170. Sterling started out the week under pressure as investors unwound expectations of any further interest rates hikes from the Bank of England. The vibrant August retails sales data triggered a rebound on Thursday, lifting the pound off its lows. As a result, sterling recently fetched 1.7910, down 0.3% on the week, while the pound was trading around 0.679 to the euro, down 0.4%.






Forex Technicals:


- EUR/USD - the currency pair remains below the crucial 1.2270 swing level -- a test of which the single currency may be still set to do. Until then, we have to pay attention to one of the possibilities we were tracking, which is a large, multi-month triangle which commenced in June. A final downmove to 1.2050 area is needed to complete the pattern, and that is why we hesitate to jump into a bullish mode without tracing out the chances of a downtick happening. This view also hews close to the scenario that the Fed will bump up rates Tuesday -- which may well cause the single currency to fall to the mid- to low 1.2000s. The best way to handle this situation is to put in markers to guide us in the decision-making process. Any rally above 1.2270 makes it unlikely that a final downleg to 1.2050 - 1.2020 will happen. On the other hand, any sell-off which takes out 1.2140 highly suggests that such a move to 1.2050 - 1.2020 will likely take place.

The slightly longer-term outlook is different however. We favor the outlook which eventually leads to a break of 1.2310, at which point the bias to the upside becomes virtually certain. And on a larger overview, we still maintain that there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2530 hypothetical resistance is taken out. This level is shaping up to be the major resistance in the current investment cycle. Take out 1,2530 top in turn, and you get a run-up to the 1.2925 high before year-end.


- GBP/USD - the currency pair is pulling back somewhat after a recovery initiated after U.K. retail sales rose 0.6%(m/m) in August, and bested expectations for a 0.4% fall. The technical conditions remain the same -- a break of 1.8030 top triggers a new series of advances -- there is no barrier between 1.8030 and 1.8500. We may yet see a follow-through to 1.8030, but a sell-off after Tuesday's FOMC meeting has to be factored in place.


- USD/JPY - a small rally back to 110.30 was followed by a volatile flip-flop in price. This is the general expectation if the triangle pattern we spoke about earlier has not been completed at the most recent sojourn to 110.40. We will take a chance that the pattern is complete, or soon to be completed anyway, and so we expect the currency pair to break through the 109.40 support thereafter, and initiate a new series of declines to the downside, which first targets the downside base at 108.75, then breaches support to bring about 107.00 quickly.


- USD/CHF - there is still a chance that the rally may go further towards 1.2800 - 1.2850 resistance area, post the FOMC meeting Tuesday. The downtrend resumes thereafter, and may be bound for 1.2380 next. Expect further declines to 1.2200 further out.


- USD/CAD -- the currency pair rose after Canadian inflation slowed more than expected in August to 1.9 percent from a year ago, then fell.
The currency pair is back at 1.2996, and the momentum of the descent suggests that it might head for 1.2860. And from there, it should test the 1.2685 trough.




.

[saleh]

تكملة:



- AUD/USD - support may firm at .6960, and assume further upmove to .7040, but this may be followed by another sell-off to .6950. The outlook becomes significantly more positive once .7050 resistance is taken out. A rally towards .7100 - .7130 is still expected to take place thereafter.


- NZD/USD - the currency prepares for a test of the .6640 top. The currency however stands a good chance of doing another correction to .6560. but should accelerate higher thereafter as a consquence of a break through the high. The wide U.S. current account/trade gap, and the outlook of further RBNZ tightening, should continue to underpin the rally as the dollar runs out of steam. The uptrend should be reaffirmed shortly -- the Kiwi should eventually make a move towards the .6750 top, then extend gains towards the .7100 high for the year. If you have to pick a medium-term bet, long Kiwi should be a good candidate from both technical and fundamental perspective.


- EUR/JPY - the cross has been to 134.50, but may correct to 133.40. However, the cross should continue to rally fromt here -- the next major focus being the 137.00 - 138.00 major resistance.


- EUR/CHF - no change in view -- the cross has been to 1.5483, and should continue the upwards course. The cross should then push through to1.5550 and higher -- perhaps to 1.5600.


- EUR/GBP - no change in view -- the cross found support at .6780, but allow for further decline to .6770 - .6760. Nonetheless, the uptrend resumes thereafter and should eventually push through .6856, which may trigger a rally to .7000.


- GBP/JPY - the uptrend is back on track, may correct to 196.50 however, and should make a go at 198.65 top, then make a beeline for the 205.00 target.


- GBP/CHF - the cross still consolidates after it broke through the 2.2700 resistance; we might see the rally extending further from here (2.2765). Resistance effectively reside at just below 2.2800, and if taken out, we reinstate a 2.3000 target.






============================================

Euro/US Dollar

EURUSD (1.2157 @ 07:52 GMT)

EUR/USD - the currency pair remains below the crucial 1.2270 swing level -- a test of which the single currency may be still set to do. Until then, we have to pay attention to one of the possibilities we were tracking, which is a large, multi-month triangle which commenced in June. A final downmove to 1.2050 area is needed to complete the pattern, and that is why we hesitate to jump into a bullish mode without tracing out the chances of a downtick happening. This view also hews close to the scenario that the Fed will bump up rates Tuesday -- which may well cause the single currency to fall to the mid- to low 1.2000s. The best way to handle this situation is to put in markers to guide us in the decision-making process. Any rally above 1.2270 makes it unlikely that a final downleg to 1.2050 - 1.2020 will happen. On the other hand, any sell-off which takes out 1.2140 highly suggests that such a move to 1.2050 - 1.2020 will likely take place.

The slightly longer-term outlook is different however. We favor the outlook which eventually leads to a break of 1.2310, at which point the bias to the upside becomes virtually certain. And on a larger overview, we still maintain that there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2530 hypothetical resistance is taken out. This level is shaping up to be the major resistance in the current investment cycle. Take out 1,2530 top in turn, and you get a run-up to the 1.2925 high before year-end.

Bought EUR at 1.2181 and 1.2231. Keep stop-loss at 1.2110. Keep profit target at 1.2500.
British Pound/US Dollar

GBPUSD (1.7885 @ 07:53 GMT)

GBP/USD - the currency pair is pulling back somewhat after a recovery initiated after U.K. retail sales rose 0.6%(m/m) in August, and bested expectations for a 0.4% fall. The technical conditions remain the same -- a break of 1.8030 top triggers a new series of advances -- there is no barrier between 1.8030 and 1.8500. We may yet see a follow-through to 1.8030, but a sell-off after Tuesday's FOMC meeting has to be factored in place.






Stand aside.
US Dollar/Japanese Yen

USDJPY (109.72 @ 07:54 GMT)



USD/JPY - a small rally back to 110.30 was followed by a volatile flip-flop in price. This is the general expectation if the triangle pattern we spoke about earlier has not been completed at the most recent sojourn to 110.40. We will take a chance that the pattern is complete, or soon to be completed anyway, and so we expect the currency pair to break through the 109.40 support thereafter, and initiate a new series of declines to the downside, which first targets the downside base at 108.75, then breaches support to bring about 107.00 quickly.


Stand aside.

[saleh]

USD/CAD may rally back to 1.3040 post Fed rate hike (if any); but look for decline to 1.2860 thereafter


Forex Technicals:


- EUR/USD - the currency pair recovered somewhat after seeing chart support at 1.2125. It may yet rise towards 1.2220, but this is inconsequential in the face of the FOMC meeting set today. Nonetheless, a small uptick to test the 1.2270 swing level does not seem likely from here (1.2176) in the light of an almost certain bumping up of rates by another 25 basis points. The response to a rate hike may be mild however, as it has been telegraphed for several weeks now. This development really forces us to pay attention to one of the possibilities we were tracking, which is a large, multi-month triangle which commenced in June. A final downmove to 1.2050 area is needed to complete the pattern, so until such time that this particular route is discredited, we hesitate to jump into a bullish mode without giving it a chance to play out. A Fed bump up of rates 25 basis points today may well cause the single currency to fall to the mid- to low 1.2000s. it may find demand at those lower levels however.

The slightly longer-term outlook is different however. We favor the outlook which eventually leads to a break of 1.2310, at which point the bias to the upside becomes virtually certain. And on a larger overview, we still maintain that there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2530 hypothetical resistance is taken out. This level is shaping up to be the major resistance in the current investment cycle. Take out 1,2530 top in turn, and you get a run-up to the 1.2925 high before year-end.


- GBP/USD - the currency pair recovers somewhat after support was found at 1.7815. However, it may be limited to 1.7900 - 1.7910. Tuesday's FOMC meeting has to be factored in place. A 25 basis point hike by the Fed may cause further decline to 1.7720. The technical conditions remain the same. On the positive side, a break of 1.8030 top triggers a new series of advances -- there is no barrier between 1.8030 and 1.8500. Fundamentals keep getting in the way however. U.K. house prices probably fell for the first time in more than a year in August, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said today, adding to evidence that five interest rate increases since November are cooling the housing market. And therefore interest rates may not need to rise much further -- which of course weakens the GBP in the FX markets.


- USD/JPY - a volatile flip-flop in price continues. This is the general expectation if the triangle pattern we spoke about earlier is indeed operative, which limits the upmove to 110.40. We will take a chance that the pattern will soon be completed, and so we expect the currency pair to break through the 109.40 support thereafter, and initiate a new series of declines to the downside, which first targets the downside base at 108.75, then breaches support to bring about 107.00 quickly.


- USD/CHF - there may be a small downtick to 1.2680 area, but the rally may indeed be going further towards 1.2800 - 1.2850 resistance area, post the FOMC meeting Tuesday. The downtrend resumes thereafter, and may be bound for 1.2380 next. Expect further declines to 1.2200 further out.


- USD/CAD -- The currency pair fell to 1.2925, and consolidates somewhat, but the momentum of the descent suggests that it might head further towards 1.2860. And from there, it should test the 1.2685 trough.


- AUD/USD - support may firm at .6950 - 1.6940 after the Fed hike, but assume further upmove to .7040 thereafter. The outlook becomes significantly more positive once .7050 resistance is taken out. A rally towards .7100 - .7130 is still expected to take place thereafter.


- NZD/USD - the currency prepares for the Fed rate hike -- support should firm up at .6550. The currency however should accelerate higher thereafter. The wide U.S. current account/trade gap, and the outlook of further RBNZ tightening, should continue to underpin the rally as the dollar runs out of steam. The uptrend should be reaffirmed shortly -- the Kiwi should eventually make a move towards the .6750 top, then extend gains towards the .7100 high for the year. If you have to pick a medium-term bet, long Kiwi should be a good candidate from both technical and fundamental perspective.


- EUR/JPY - the cross did find support at 133.20. The cross should continue to rally from here (134.03) -- the next major focus being the 137.00 - 138.00 major resistance.


- EUR/CHF - the cross broke above 1.5483 resistance, and has been to 1.5500, which should be taken out momentarily. The cross should continue the upwards course and push through to 1.5550 and higher -- perhaps to 1.5600.


- EUR/GBP - the cross may have indeed found lasting support at .6780 -- further decline to .6770 - .6760 may not happen. The uptrend resumes thereafter and should eventually push through .6856, which may trigger a rally to .7000.


- GBP/JPY - the uptrend did correct , found support near 195.75. It should make a go at 198.65 top thereafter, then make a beeline for the 205.00 target.


- GBP/CHF - the cross consolidates after it broke through the 2.2700 resistance, but may be set for a new breakout once support at 2.2700 is confirmed. Resistance effectively reside at just below 2.2800, and if taken out, we reinstate a 2.3000 target.






================================================== ===


Euro/US Dollar

EURUSD (1.2176 @ 06:39 GMT)

EUR/USD - the currency pair recovered somewhat after seeing chart support at 1.2125. It may yet rise towards 1.2220, but this is inconsequential in the face of the FOMC meeting set today. Nonetheless, a small uptick to test the 1.2270 swing level does not seem likely from here (1.2176) in the light of an almost certain bumping up of rates by another 25 basis points. The response to a rate hike may be mild however, as it has been telegraphed for several weeks now. This development really forces us to pay attention to one of the possibilities we were tracking, which is a large, multi-month triangle which commenced in June. A final downmove to 1.2050 area is needed to complete the pattern, so until such time that this particular route is discredited, we hesitate to jump into a bullish mode without giving it a chance to play out. A Fed bump up of rates 25 basis points today may well cause the single currency to fall to the mid- to low 1.2000s. it may find demand at those lower levels however.

The slightly longer-term outlook is different however. We favor the outlook which eventually leads to a break of 1.2310, at which point the bias to the upside becomes virtually certain. And on a larger overview, we still maintain that there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2530 hypothetical resistance is taken out. This level is shaping up to be the major resistance in the current investment cycle. Take out 1,2530 top in turn, and you get a run-up to the 1.2925 high before year-end.

There is no logic to holding a position ahead of the Fed decision today. Square long positions and re-position after the FOMC meeting is over.


Close long EUR position (from 1.2181 and 1.2231) at current level (1.2176).
British Pound/US Dollar

GBPUSD (1.7843 @ 06:44 GMT)

GBP/USD - the currency pair recovers somewhat after support was found at 1.7815. However, it may be limited to 1.7900 - 1.7910. Tuesday's FOMC meeting has to be factored in place. A 25 basis point hike by the Fed may cause further decline to 1.7720. The technical conditions remain the same. On the positive side, a break of 1.8030 top triggers a new series of advances -- there is no barrier between 1.8030 and 1.8500. Fundamentals keep getting in the way however. U.K. house prices probably fell for the first time in more than a year in August, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said today, adding to evidence that five interest rate increases since November are cooling the housing market. And therefore interest rates may not need to rise much further -- which of course weakens the GBP in the FX markets.






Stand aside.
US Dollar/Japanese Yen

USDJPY (110.10 @ 06:44 GMT)



USD/JPY - a volatile flip-flop in price continues. This is the general expectation if the triangle pattern we spoke about earlier is indeed operative, which limits the upmove to 110.40. We will take a chance that the pattern will soon be completed, and so we expect the currency pair to break through the 109.40 support thereafter, and initiate a new series of declines to the downside, which first targets the downside base at 108.75, then breaches support to bring about 107.00 quickly.

[saleh]

USD/JPY trading range gets even tighter, as +triangle pattern+ draws to a close; break to the downside targets 107.00

DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH TODAY: Sept 22 - Europe



- Japanese exports rose to a record in August on demand from China and the U.S., helping ease concern that a recovery in the world's second-largest economy is faltering. Exports rose 2.3 percent, seasonally adjusted, from July, the first gain in three months, the Ministry of Finance said in Tokyo. Imports gained 1 percent. The trade surplus unexpectedly widened to 1.045 trillion yen ($9.52 billion) from a revised 971 billion yen in July. Rising orders from China for companies including Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. and JFE Steel Corp. may help Japan's economy recover from its slowest pace of growth in a year in the past quarter. Shipments to China, the nation's second-largest overseas market, grew at seven times the pace of exports overall last year. The median forecast of economists was for the adjusted surplus to shrink to 923 billion yen. From a year earlier, exports rose 10.4 percent in August, and imports jumped 18.4 percent. The unadjusted trade surplus shrank 26 percent to 576.1 billion yen, the first decline in 14 months.


- Canadian retail sales rose 0.5 percent to a record C$28.9 billion ($22.4 billion) in July, led by new-car dealers, general-merchandise stores and sellers of homebuilding supplies. The gain matched the median forecast of economists. Excluding automobiles and auto parts, sales rose 0.3 percent to C$21.9 billion. On that basis, economists expected a gain of 0.4 percent. Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said yesterday that interest rates must rise further with the economy growing close to the 3 percent rate where the central bank says inflation can start to accelerate. The pace of increases will depend on how quickly the economy soaks up capacity, he said. Policy makers next meet to decide on interest rates Oct. 19 and then Dec. 7. The central bank two weeks ago raised rates for the first time in 17 months, increasing the benchmark rate for overnight loans between commercial banks by a quarter point to 2.25 percent.


- French household spending probably rose in August and Italian consumers may have become more optimistic this month, suggesting domestic demand in the dozen countries sharing the euro picked up in the third quarter, surveys of economists showed. Consumer spending in France probably rose 0.3 percent last month, according to the median of estimates. An Italian confidence index may have advanced to 102 from 101.7 in August, the median of 21 forecasts showed. Spending by French households helped the second-biggest economy sharing the euro grow in the second quarter at more than twice the rate of neighboring Italy, where household demand shrank. While Italian consumer optimism is rebounding from a 10-year low reached in May, French families may start reining in spending as unemployment stays near a 2 1/2-year high.


- Federal Reserve policy makers raised the benchmark U.S. interest rate a quarter-point to 1.75 percent and restated a plan to carry out any further increases at a ``measured'' pace. "With underlying inflation expected to be relatively low, the committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured,'' members of the Fed's rate- setting Open Market Committee said in a statement after their meeting in Washington. "Nonetheless, the committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed.'' The third increase this year and the possibility the FOMC may keep raising rates suggests central bankers are confident that the world's largest economy will continue to expand. The vote to raise the overnight bank lending rate was unanimous.


- Crude oil futures rose in New York to trade near a one-month high on concern Russian exports will be disrupted after utilities cut some power supplies to OAO Yukos Oil Co., the country's top producer. In the U.S., oil supplies probably fell for an eighth straight week after Hurricane Ivan cut production in the Gulf of Mexico and disrupted tanker shipments. An eight-week decline would be the longest since 1988, Department of Energy figures show. Crude oil for November delivery rose 22 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $46.98 a barrel in electronic after-hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 1:12 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, it rose 57 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $46.76. October-delivery oil yesterday rose 75 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $47.10 a barrel, the highest close since Aug. 20, when prices reached a record $49.40 a barrel during intraday trading.





FX Market Summary -



The dollar traded near a one-month low versus the euro in Europe after the Federal Reserve refrained from signaling it will accelerate its interest-rate increases given the absence of inflation. The central bank raised its benchmark interest rate for a third straight time, saying ``output growth appears to have regained some traction.'' Even after lifting the target for overnight loans between banks to 1.75 percent, yields are higher in countries such as the U.K. and in the European region. The comparable benchmark rate in the U.K is 4.75 percent and in the European Union the rate is 2 percent. The dollar traded at $1.2319 per euro at 6:12 a.m. in London, from $1.2336 late yesterday in New York, where it fell as low as $1.2346, the weakest since Aug. 20. It was also at 109.77 yen, from 109.65.

The pound gained against the dollar after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate a quarter percentage point and said inflation has slowed. Fed policy makers lifted their target rate for overnight loans between banks to 1.75 percent, still 3 percentage points below the Bank of England's main interest rate. In a statement accompanying the decision, the Fed said ``inflation and inflation expectations have eased in recent months.'' Against the dollar, the pound traded at $1.7993 by 2:46 p.m. in New York, from $1.7861 late Monday in London. The pound was at $1.7956 immediately before the Fed's announcement. The U.K. currency was also at 68.47 pence per euro, from 68.12.

New Zealand's dollar, the best performing Asia-Pacific currency against its U.S. counterpart this quarter, may rally through year-end on speculation the central bank will lift interest rates a seventh time this year. The currency, up 4.4 percent since June 30, is being boosted as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate increases enhance the yield advantage of the country's bonds relative to U.S. Treasury notes. The New Zealand dollar may appreciate to 70 U.S. cents next year. The currency strengthened in all but one of the past seven quarters. Against the U.S. dollar, it rose the most in almost a month on Sept. 9 after Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard lifted the benchmark rate to 6.25 percent and said higher borrowing costs may be needed to contain inflation. The Fed's target rate for overnight loans between banks is 1.75 percent.

Tuesday's summary: The dollar initially pushed higher after the Fed announcement, but quickly reversed course and finished near session lows. The greenback lost 0.2% versus the yen and depreciated 1.3% against the euro.

The OECD’s revised growth forecasts for 2004 – boosting its estimate for the euro zone to 2.0% from 1.6% and pulling its U.S. forecast down to 4.3% from 4.7% - gave an initial boost to the euro early in the day. In the U.K., a report by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors, released overnight, gave the latest indications of a moderating housing market. This has further undermined rate hike expectations and pulled the pound down 0.3% vis-أ -vis the euro, to near 0.684, and 0.5% against the greenback. The OECD’s upgrade to its British growth forecast offered some modest support to the pound, but not enough to counteract the revision to investors’ interest rate expectations.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------

[saleh]

تكملة:

Forex Technicals:


- EUR/USD - the currency pair went through 1.2310 right after the Fed mandated a 25 bp rate hike, putting the single currency on course towards a test of the 1.2500 resistance. The rally has been to 1.2346 -- it came all the way from 1.2127 in just about more than 24 hours, so expect some degree of correction from here; we may see the correction falling to 1.2280 - 1.2250 area before resuming the uptrend. The slightly longer-term positive outlook has been confirmed -- and in an oblique way, the bond market agrees with the projection of higher euro down the road. The rally should eventually make it to 1.2500; but we repeat -- there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2530 hypothetical resistance is taken out. This level is shaping up to be the major resistance in the current investment cycle. Take out 1,2530 top in turn, and you get a run-up to the 1.2925 high before year-end.


- GBP/USD - the beleaguered currency got some boost post-Fed tightening, but it was decidedly smaller than what other major currencies received. Cable is still due a test of the 1.8030 top. A break of 1.8030 top should trigger a new series of advances -- there is no barrier between 1.8030 and 1.8500. Fundamentals are still getting in the way however. A report by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors gave the latest indications of a moderating housing market, which has further undermined rate hike expectations and continue to hobble the pound going forward.


- USD/JPY - the Fed tightening was non-event in this currency pair -- no change in view. The range keeps getting tighter -- the triangle pattern we spoke about earlier is indeed operative, which limits the upmove to 110.40. We will take a chance that the pattern will soon be completed, and so we expect the currency pair to break through the 109.40 support thereafter, and initiate a new series of declines to the downside, which first targets the downside base at 108.75, then breaches support to bring about 107.00 quickly.


- USD/CHF - the currency fell sharply post Fed action, and has been to as low as 1.2525. The downmove has been very sharp -- somewhat too much too soon -- so expect a larger correction, which may reach back to 1.2590 - 1.2600. The sell-off will likely resume thereafter, and may be bound for 1.2380 next. Expect further declines to 1.2200 further out.


- USD/CAD -- the currency pair fell further to 1.2860, and consolidates somewhat, but the momentum of the descent suggests that it might head further towards the 1.2685 trough.


- AUD/USD - support actually firmed up at .6995, and has been to .7060. It may fall to .7030 from here, but the outlook has become significantly more positive after.7050 resistance was taken out. A rally towards .7100 - .7130 is still expected to take place further out.


- NZD/USD - the currency did fall to .6608 after the Fed bumped up rates, but bounced back just as quickly. The currency should continue to accelerate further from here. The outlook of further RBNZ tightening should continue to underpin the rally on top of the general weakening of the greenback. The uptrend has been reaffirmed, and the Kiwi should eventually make a move towards the .6750 top, then extend gains towards the .7100 high for the year. Long Kiwi remains the best candidate for in the medium-term, from both technical and fundamental perspective.


- EUR/JPY - the cross soared to as high as 135.40 and consolidates in a narrow range -- support should be firm above 135.00. The cross should continue to rally -- the next major focus being the 137.00 - 138.00 major resistance.


- EUR/CHF - the cross has likely found support at 1.5435, and should continue to rise towards the 1.5510 top. The cross should continue to push through to 1.5550 and higher -- perhaps even to 1.5600.


- EUR/GBP - no change in view -- the cross may have indeed found lasting support at .6780 -- further decline to .6770 - .6760 may not happen. The uptrend resumes thereafter and should eventually push through .6856, which may trigger a rally to .7000.


- GBP/JPY - the uptrend found new minor support at 197.00. It should make a go at 198.65 top from here, then make a beeline for the 205.00 target.


- GBP/CHF - the cross found a new base at 2.2520. The rally should continue -- make a new probe of 2.2780 top, and if taken out, we reinstate a 2.3000 target.




Euro/US Dollar

EURUSD (1.2301 @ 08:54 GMT)

EUR/USD - the currency pair went through 1.2310 right after the Fed mandated a 25 bp rate hike, putting the single currency on course towards a test of the 1.2500 resistance. The rally has been to 1.2346 -- it came all the way from 1.2127 in just about more than 24 hours, so expect some degree of correction from here; we may see the correction falling to 1.2280 - 1.2250 area before resuming the uptrend. The slightly longer-term positive outlook has been confirmed -- and in an oblique way, the bond market agrees with the projection of higher euro down the road. The rally should eventually make it to 1.2500; but we repeat -- there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2530 hypothetical resistance is taken out. This level is shaping up to be the major resistance in the current investment cycle. Take out 1,2530 top in turn, and you get a run-up to the 1.2925 high before year-end.



Buy EUR at 1.2301. Stop-loss: 1.2110. Profit target: 1.2500.
British Pound/US Dollar

GBPUSD (1.7912 @ 08:55 GMT)

GBP/USD - the beleaguered currency got some boost post-Fed tightening, but it was decidedly smaller than what other major currencies received. Cable is still due a test of the 1.8030 top. A break of 1.8030 top should trigger a new series of advances -- there is no barrier between 1.8030 and 1.8500. Fundamentals are still getting in the way however. A report by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors gave the latest indications of a moderating housing market, which has further undermined rate hike expectations and continue to hobble the pound going forward.







Stand aside.
US Dollar/Japanese Yen

USDJPY (110.12 @ 08:56 GMT)



USD/JPY - the Fed tightening was non-event in this currency pair -- no change in view. The range keeps getting tighter -- the triangle pattern we spoke about earlier is indeed operative, which limits the upmove to 110.40. We will take a chance that the pattern will soon be completed, and so we expect the currency pair to break through the 109.40 support thereafter, and initiate a new series of declines to the downside, which first targets the downside base at 108.75, then breaches support to bring about 107.00 quickly.



Sell USD at 110.12. Stop-loss: 111.05. Profit target: 107.00.

[saleh]

EUR/USD support at 1.2225 survives, uptrend should resume, looking for 1.2500; USD/CHF falls further, may have 1.2200 as target
Forex Technicals:


- EUR/USD - the swing level at 1.2225 survived and it seems like the short-term uptrend survived the test. Further upmove beyond 1.2300 reinstates the rally towards 1.2500. The slightly longer-term positive outlook still looks good -- the rally should eventually make it to 1.2500. But we repeat -- there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2530 hypothetical resistance is taken out. This level is shaping up to be the major resistance in the current investment cycle. Take out 1,2530 top in turn, and you get a run-up to the 1.2925 high before year-end. Failure to do so consigns the currency pair to a long sojourn at 1.2500 - 1.2000 range.


- GBP/USD - the currency fell to as low as 1.7875 -- found support thereafter. Cable is still due a test of the 1.8030 top at some point. A break of 1.8030 top should trigger a new series of advances -- there is no barrier between 1.8030 and 1.8500. Fundamentals are still getting in the way however. A report by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors gave the latest indications of a moderating housing market, which has further undermined rate hike expectations and continue to hobble the pound going forward.


- USD/JPY - the currency pair continues to rally and will probably proceed to 111.50 later in the week. Our downside projections have to be abandoned temporarily until we get a handle on this new uptrend.


- USD/CHF - the uptick ended at 1.2655 and the downtrend may have resumed. The currency pair may still be bound for 1.2380 next. Expect further declines to 1.2200 further out.


- USD/CAD -- the currency fell further -- it has been to 1.2814 -- and consolidates somewhat, but the momentum of the descent suggests that it might head further towards the 1.2685 trough.


- AUD/USD - no change in view -- the currency pair has been to .7080, pulled back merely to .7035, and should resume the uptrend shortly. The outlook has become significantly more positive after.7050 resistance was taken out. A rally towards .7100 - .7130 is still expected to take place further out.


- NZD/USD - the currency found support at .6606. The uptrend should resume from here (.6636). and the Kiwi should eventually make a move towards the .6750 top, then extend gains towards the .7100 high for the year. Long Kiwi remains the best candidate for in the medium-term, from both technical and fundamental perspective.


- EUR/JPY - the cross soared to as high as 136.00 and its open water to 137.00 - 138.00. The cross should continue to rally -- the next major focus being the 138.00 major resistance.


- EUR/CHF - the cross has likely found support at 1.5435, and may be tested again -- but for now we still see a continued rise towards the 1.5510 top. The cross should continue to push through to 1.5550 and higher -- perhaps even to 1.5600.


- EUR/GBP - the cross did form a base at .6825. The uptrend resumes from here (.6840) and should eventually push through .6856, which may trigger a rally to .7000.


- GBP/JPY - the uptrend found new minor support at 198.10 and has been to 199.00. It should make a beeline for the 205.00 target.


- GBP/CHF - no change in view -- the cross found a new base at 2.2520. The rally should continue -- make a new probe of 2.2780 top, and if taken out, we reinstate a 2.3000 target.




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Euro/US Dollar

EURUSD (1.2272 @ 05:12 GMT)

EUR/USD - the swing level at 1.2225 survived and it seems like the short-term uptrend survived the test. Further upmove beyond 1.2300 reinstates the rally towards 1.2500. The slightly longer-term positive outlook still looks good -- the rally should eventually make it to 1.2500. But we repeat -- there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2530 hypothetical resistance is taken out. This level is shaping up to be the major resistance in the current investment cycle. Take out 1,2530 top in turn, and you get a run-up to the 1.2925 high before year-end. Failure to do so consigns the currency pair to a long sojourn at 1.2500 - 1.2000 range.




Bought EUR at 1.2301. Keep stop-loss at 1.2110. Keep profit target at 1.2500.
British Pound/US Dollar

GBPUSD (1.7944 @ 05:12 GMT)

GBP/USD - the currency fell to as low as 1.7875 -- found support thereafter. Cable is still due a test of the 1.8030 top at some point. A break of 1.8030 top should trigger a new series of advances -- there is no barrier between 1.8030 and 1.8500. Fundamentals are still getting in the way however. A report by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors gave the latest indications of a moderating housing market, which has further undermined rate hike expectations and continue to hobble the pound going forward.






Stand aside.
US Dollar/Japanese Yen

USDJPY (110.77 @ 05:12 GMT)



USD/JPY - the currency pair continues to rally and will probably proceed to 111.50 later in the week. Our downside projections have to be abandoned temporarily until we get a handle on this new uptrend.

Sold USD at 110.12. Move stop-loss from 111.05 to 111.55. Keep profit target at 107.00

[saleh]

USD/JPY may extend the rally to 111.50, but should fall thereafter towards 109.00 - 108.75 support area


FX Market Summary -


The yen headed for a second losing week against the dollar in Asia on speculation rising oil prices will undermine a recovery in the Japanese economy, causing the Nikkei 225 Stock Average to extend a one-month low. The yen also may weaken after a government report showed Japan's services industry unexpectedly shrank in July, adding to concerns of a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. Confidence among large manufactures will drop through December, the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey will show on Oct. 1, according to a survey of economists. Against the dollar, the yen traded at 110.65 at 11:15 a.m. in Tokyo from 110.80 late yesterday in New York. The Japanese currency dropped 0.8 percent this week, the biggest decline since the week ended July 30. It also traded at 135.73 per euro from 135.95, down 1.4 percent on the week. The Nikkei fell 1.2 percent today and 1.8 percent for the week.

Thursday's summary: the dollar staged a late-afternoon rally against the majors, finishing the regular session little changed. Upward momentum coincided with the late day sell-off in Treasuries. The greenback finished the regular session slightly higher against the yen and marginally lower versus the euro.

The U.S. dollar started out the trading day in Europe somewhat soft against the principal Europeans, only to regain some of its losses at the close. Concern as to the sustainability of U.S. growth, which seems to unwisely preoccupy the currency markets, helped lift the euro a modest 0.3% today, to trade recently around 1.230. Sterling shrugged off the weak CBI industrial trends report, rising 0.4% vis-أ -vis the greenback, to 1.80, and trading near 0.683 to the euro, down a modest 0.1% on the day. The interest differential is temporarily favouring the pound, as the market chases yields.



Forex Technicals:


- EUR/USD - the short-term uptrend suffered a setback, in sympathy with the pullback in bond prices following the publication of the August FOMC minutes. The Committee was fairly confident last month that the weakness in economic activity would soon pass, and that had the bond market and the major currencies spooked. Allow further downtick to 1.2230 - 1.2220 after which the single currency should make another pass at the 1.2350 top. And as before, an upmove beyond 1.2350 reinstates the rally towards 1.2500 -- the single currency should take out the 1.2350 resistance at some point next week.
The slightly longer-term positive outlook remains well -- the rally should eventually make it to 1.2500. But we repeat -- there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2530 hypothetical resistance is taken out. This level is shaping up to be the major resistance in the current investment cycle. Take out 1,2530 top in turn, and you get a run-up to the 1.2925 high before year-end. Failure to do so consigns the currency pair to a long sojourn at 1.2500 - 1.2000 range.


- GBP/USD - Cable did test of the 1.8030 top then pulled back in line with the rest of the European majors; expect the ongoing correction to extend towards the 1.7930 - 1.7920 area. The rally should resume thereafter, and should take out the 1.8050 top, and may trigger a new series of advances -- there is no barrier between 1.8050 and 1.8500. Fundamentals are still getting in the way however -- the perception that the BoE is close to the end of the rate-tightening cycle should hurt the pound henceforth.


- USD/JPY - the currency pair continues to consolidate, but may yet proceed to 111.50 later in the week. Our downside projections have to be abandoned temporarily until we get a handle on this new uptrend.


- USD/CHF - there's a slight adjustment in the short-term view: the currency will probably rise further to 1.2660 - 1.2680 to complete the countertrend rally. The longer-term negative view kicks in thereafter -- the downtrend should resume. The currency pair may still be bound for 1.2380 next. Expect further declines to 1.2200 further out.


- USD/CAD -- the currency has been to as low as 1.2764 but may yet rise further to 1.2450 - 1.2460. The sell-off should resume thereafter. Momentum projections suggests that it might head towards the 1.2685 trough at least -- we are now extending the downside target area towards 1.2500.


- AUD/USD - the currency pair has been to .7160, and pulled back -- it might extend the correction to just above .7100. But the rally should resume thereafter. A rally towards .7300 - .7400 is now on track further out. The Aussie continues to benefit from its high-yield status and should lead the charge against the Dollar, and will alternate with the Kiwi for market leadership in the next few weeks.


- NZD/USD - the uptrend has brought the Kiwi to as high as .6685 and currently consolidates -- no change in the view. The Kiwi should eventually make a move towards the .6750 top, then extend gains towards the .7100 high for the year. Long Kiwi remains the best candidate for in the medium-term, from both technical and fundamental perspective.


- EUR/JPY - the cross has been to 136.50 and corrects back to 135.40 - 135.30. But the uptrend is still looking good -- its open waters until 137.00 - 138.00. The cross should continue to rally -- the next major focus being the 138.00 major resistance.


- EUR/CHF - the cross continues to trade sideways with support showing up at 1.5465 -- we still see a continued rise towards the 1.5510 top thereafter. The cross should continue to push through to 1.5550 and higher -- perhaps even to 1.5600.


- EUR/GBP - no change in view -- the cross did form a base at .6825. The uptrend resumes from here (.6840) and should eventually push through .6856, which may trigger a rally to .7000.


- GBP/JPY - the uptrend consolidates back to .6815 and may have initiated a new upmove towards the .6867 top. The next target is 200.00 after which it should make a beeline for the 205.00 target.


- GBP/CHF - the cross found a new base at 2.2520, but the rally since then may pullback further towards 2.2580/75. The rally should continue thereafter -- make a new probe of 2.2780 top, and if taken out, we reinstate a 2.3000 target.






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Euro/US Dollar

EURUSD (1.2265 @ 07:33 GMT)

EUR/USD - the short-term uptrend suffered a setback, in sympathy with the pullback in bond prices following the publication of the August FOMC minutes. The Committee was fairly confident last month that the weakness in economic activity would soon pass, and that had the bond market and the major currencies spooked. Allow further downtick to 1.2230 - 1.2220 after which the single currency should make another pass at the 1.2350 top. And as before, an upmove beyond 1.2350 reinstates the rally towards 1.2500 -- the single currency should take out the 1.2350 resistance at some point next week.

The slightly longer-term positive outlook remains well -- the rally should eventually make it to 1.2500. But we repeat -- there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2530 hypothetical resistance is taken out. This level is shaping up to be the major resistance in the current investment cycle. Take out 1,2530 top in turn, and you get a run-up to the 1.2925 high before year-end. Failure to do so consigns the currency pair to a long sojourn at 1.2500 - 1.2000 range.




Bought EUR at 1.2301. Move stop-loss from 1.2210 to 1.2190. Keep profit target at 1.2500.
British Pound/US Dollar

GBPUSD (1.7971 @ 07:34 GMT)

GBP/USD - Cable did test of the 1.8030 top then pulled back in line with the rest of the European majors; expect the ongoing correction to extend towards the 1.7930 - 1.7920 area. The rally should resume thereafter, and should take out the 1.8050 top, and may trigger a new series of advances -- there is no barrier between 1.8050 and 1.8500. Fundamentals are still getting in the way however -- the perception that the BoE is close to the end of the rate-tightening cycle should hurt the pound henceforth.







Stand aside.
US Dollar/Japanese Yen

USDJPY (110.72 @ 07:35 GMT)



USD/JPY - the currency pair continues to consolidate, but may yet proceed to 111.50 later in the week. Our downside projections have to be abandoned temporarily until we get a handle on this new uptrend.

Sold USD at 110.12. Keep stop-loss at 111.55. Keep profit target at 107.00