Daily Market Report 13/09/04 (Morning update)
EUR/USD - (10:00) extended gains from last Wednesdays 1.2026 low through the previous top at 1.2222 to reach 1.2257 and 1.2312 highs on Friday. 1.2230-1.2287 has followed today and although an immediate extension higher not signaled, an eventual breach of 1.2312 is favored to open an opportunity for 1.2351 and 1.2390. Buying is suggested at 1.2215 and stops are warned at 1.2187.
Res: 1.2312, 1.2320, 1.2351, 1.2390
Sup: 1.2230, 1.2205, 1.2185, 1.2170
USD/JPY - (10:00) climbed up to 110.35, ahead of a sharp drop to 109.20. Market continues to trade within a 108.76-110.70 range, while daily studies continue to favour an eventual downside break. A likely push above the resistance area at 109.70 would trigger a rally to 110.00 and 110.35 before market weakens. Under 109.20 will open way for 108.76.
Res: 109.70, 109.80, 110.00, 110.35
Sup: 109.30, 109.20, 109.05, 108.75
GBP/USD - (10:00) has almost fully retraced the recent 1.8067-1.7708 decline, and 1.7812 to 1.7855 on Thurs/Fri having set up a surge to 1.8028 ahead of today’s correction. Ideally, former resistance seen at 1.7908/20 will contain weakness, maintaining the short term bull tone for a fresh rise to attack 1.8067. Buy at 1.7925 with stops at 1.7900.
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Res: 1.7990, 1.8028, 1.8050, 1.8065
Sup: 1.7940, 1.7920, 1.7900, 1.7855
USD/CHF - (10:00) extended losses from last Wednesday’s 1.2792 peak through the low at 1.2555 on Friday show a further extension to 1.2522 before latest 1.2550-1.2601 consolidation. As yet, the short term outlook remains bearish, with an extension into the 1.2480 and 1.2510 target area. Selling is seen at 1.2585 with stops warned at 1.2610.
Res: 1.2610, 1.2630, 1.2665, 1.2695
Sup: 1.2550, 1.2520, 1.2510, 1.2480
EUR/JPY – (10:30) powered higher off last Wednesday’s 131.80 higher low to reach 134.94 on Friday, just shy of 135.00. The break above 133.30 completed a reversal that projects gains to 135.50 although a further extension higher is eventually seen. Short term is possible to 133.70 before fresh buying is seen. Buying is seen at 133.90 with stops suggested at 133.60.
Res: 134.54, 134.70, 135.00, 135.15
Sup: 134.00, 133.70, 133.60, 133.45
EUR/GBP – (10:30) cleared the 0.6815 after an initial dip from 0.6815, which left a higher low at 0.6763. A rise from there to 0.6849 on Friday was followed by a setback to 0.6811, this being within the 0.6802 and 0.6814 ideal target area required to sustain the bull trend for a further extension towards the 0.6867.
Res: 0.6835, 0.6849, 0.6855, 0.6865
Sup: 0.6807, 0.6796, 0.6785, 0.6772
EUR/CHF – (10:30) has fully retraced losses from the 1.5435 lower top which bottomed at 1.5313. A trial to attack the previous peak at 1.5449 is favored unless a reversal below the 1.5385 low is now seen. Clearing the 1.5449 high too may open the way for an extension to 1.5473.
Res: 1.5450, 1.5472, 1.5493, 1.5515
Sup: 1.5413, 1.5400, 1.5380, 1.5375
GBP/JPY (10:30) firmed off the 193.60 to breach 196.35 on Friday. This broke the bear structure off 204.80, and turned the focus higher. 197.40 has been reached so far ahead, that likely precedes the next push higher to challenge 197.90. Only under 196.15 will it drop to 195.55.
Res: 197.40, 197.90, 198.20, 198.50
Sup: 196.15, 195.80, 195.35, 195.00
CRUDE OIL - (10:30) Stalled in front of recent 45.37 swing higher before pulling back sharply to test last Wednesday’s swing low at 42.40 where a trendline support lies nearby. While under the level of 43.80 and 44.00, may retry to precede next downside. Any movement above the 44.35 neutralizes as market undergoes short-term ranging. Buying is seen at 42.95 and stops are warned below the 42.80.
Res: 43.80, 44.00, 44.35, 44.55
Sup: 43.00, 42.80, 42.52, 42.40
GOLD - (10:30) Stages a recovery off the 394.65 last Wednesday to relieve the decline off 410.85. Last low at 396.95 projects a swing to target the 403.20, which is straddled by the 402.20 lower high at 404.65 resistance area. Failure to reach 403.20, combined with a break below 396.95 would bring focus back to the 394.65 ahead of 392.25. Await fresh signal.
Res: 403.20, 404.65, 405.45, 406.15
Sup: 399.20, 398.65, 396.95, 394.65
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