AUD/USD finds support above .7125, may rise towards .7300 - .7400 further out on high-yield status
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Euro/US Dollar
(1.2320) - 07:03 GMT, Sep 29, 2004
EUR/USD - the U.S. consumer sentiment index release was a non-event -- although the single currency fell slightly in its aftermath, but kept within striking distance of the 1.2365 resistance area, which is now well-defined. It also looks like 1.2280 has defined the short-term support -- a wayward Q2 GDP data may cause a retest of the area. Nonetheless, expect recovery further out, and the upmove should eventually go beyond 1.2360, which effectively reinstates the rally towards 1.2500. The slightly longer-term positive outlook remains in effect still -- the rally should eventually make it to 1.2500. But we re-emphasize the longer-term view -- there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2530 hypothetical resistance is taken out. This level is shaping up to be the major resistance in the current investment cycle. Take out 1,2530 top in turn, and you get a run-up to the 1.2925 high before year-end. Failure to do so consigns the currency pair to a long sideways sojourn at 1.2500 - 1.2000 range.
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Recommendations:
Bought EUR at 1.2301. Keep stop-loss at 1.2190. Keep profit target at 1.2500.
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British Pound/US Dollar
(1.8101) - 07:03 GMT, Sep 29, 2004
GBP/USD - Cable has been to as high as 1.8160, restoring some of the ground lost in earlier setbacks. The currency pair may not make a small pullback to 1.8050 area. Going forward. however, technicals remain positive as new highs elicit calls for further gains, and fundamentals remain fairly positive. A new series of advances is in process, the next target being 1.8375. As we said earlier, there is no big barrier between 1.8050 and 1.8500.
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Recommendations:
Bought GBP at 1.8007. Keep stop-loss at 1.8070. Keep profit target at 1.8500.
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US Dollar/Japanese Yen
(111.01) - 07:04 GMT, Sep 29, 2004
USD/JPY - the currency pair has been weaker since the 111.71 top, and has fallen to 111.00 since -- no change in the outlook. If it takes out that level, then there is a fair chance that the rally has topped out. Meanwhile. our downside projections have to be abandoned temporarily until we get a handle on this new uptrend.
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Recommendations:
Sold USD at 110.12. Keep stop-loss at 111.75. Keep profit target at 107.00.
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US Dollar/Swiss Franc
(1.2596) - 07:05 GMT, Sep 29, 2004
USD/CHF - the currency stays in a narrow range, and the odds for a final uptick to 1.2660 is fading out fast. It may still do it, so keeps an eye out for it, at least until 1.2550 is taken out on the downside. The longer-term negative view kicks in thereafter -- the downtrend should resume. The currency pair may still be bound for 1.2380 next. Expect further declines to 1.2200 further out.
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Recommendations:
Sold USD at 1.2573. Keep stop-loss at 1.2710. Keep profit target at 1.2200.
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US Dollar/Canadian Dollar
(1.2716) - 07:05 GMT, Sep 29, 2004
USD/CAD -- the currency pair rose back to 1.2770, but fell since then. The downtrend may have gone back on track. Momentum projections suggests that it might head towards the 1.2685 trough at least -- we are now extending the downside target area towards 1.2500.
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Recommendations:
Stand aside.
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Australian Dollar/US Dollar
(0.7169) - 07:06 GMT, Sep 29, 2004
AUD/USD - the rally has gone to as high as .7191, but may pullback to .7150/40. However, a rally towards .7300 - .7400 goes back on track further out. The Aussie continues to benefit from its high-yield status and should lead the charge against the Dollar, and will alternate with the Kiwi for market leadership in the next few weeks.
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Recommendations:
Bought AUD at 0.6909, 0.6962 and 0.6990. Keep stop-loss at 0.7070. Keep profit target at 0.7225.
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NZ Dollar/US Dollar
(0.6695) - 07:06 GMT, Sep 29, 2004
NZD/USD - The Kiwi found resistance at ,6710, and may pull back to .6670/60 later in the day. But a rally to the .6750 top should be on its way shortly. The currency pair should then extend gains towards the .7100 high of the year. Long Kiwi remains the best candidate for in the medium-term, from both technical and fundamental perspective.
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Recommendations:
Bought NZD at 0.6464 to 0.6611 (4 observations). Keep stop-loss at 0.6630. Keep profit target at 0.7000.
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Euro/Japanese Yen
(136.79) - 07:06 GMT, Sep 29, 2004
EUR/JPY - the cross has gone to as high as 137.54 and consolidates somewhat -- it may find support at 136.50. But the rally should extend beyond 138.00 from there. We still think that the uptrend has potential to go to 141.00, but that has to wait until the 138.00 resistance has been taken out.
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Recommendations:
Bought EUR at 133.91 and 134.02. Keep stop-loss at 136.30. Keep profit target at 141.00.
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Euro/Swiss Franc
(1.5522) - 07:07 GMT, Sep 29, 2004
- EUR/CHF - the cross has been to 1.5527, but may pullback to 1.5505 area -- we see no technical reasons why the uptrend will not resume from there. The cross should thereafter push through to 1.5550 and higher -- perhaps even to 1.5700.
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Recommendations:
Bought EUR at 1.5416. Keep stop-loss at 1.5475. Keep profit target at 1.5600.
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Euro/British Pound
(0.6802) - 07:09 GMT, Sep 29, 2004
EUR/GBP - a small consolidation pattern between .6820 and .6785 may bring along a test of .6815 high, but the scenario is unchanged -- further declines to .6770 may be in the cards later in the week. The uptrend may resume from there and should eventually push through .6856, which may trigger a rally to .7000.
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Recommendations:
Stand aside.
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British Pound/Japanese Yen
(201.05) - 07:10 GMT, Sep 29, 2004
GBP/JPY - the cross has been to as high as 202.48 and pulls back, but should find support at 200.50 area. The cross should rise further thereafter, to 203.70 then corrects back a little probably to 202.00. But further out, the cross makes a beeline for the 205.00 target.
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Recommendations:
Bought GBP at 196.66 and 196.75. Move stop-loss from 200.75 to 200.00. Keep profit target at 205.00.
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British Pound/Swiss Franc
(2.2819) - 07:11 GMT, Sep 29, 2004
GBP/CHF - the cross has been to 2.2880 and may settle back towards 2.2750. But support firm up soon, as the general view still threatens a rise towards the 2.3000 target. If 2.3000 is taken out -- and we believe there is a good chance that the cross will eventually rise beyond it -- the next target may be 2.3400.
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Recommendations:
Stand aside.