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FX Technical Analysis
Forex Technical Analysis Reports | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank | Nov 01 07 08:06 GMT | FX Technical Analysis

EURUSD

Comment: A rapidly imploding US dollar which, over the last month, has lost 5% of its value against the Canadian dollar and South African rand, 4% versus Aussie and Brazilian real. The Euro makes the headlines as it trades up to a new record high at 1.4508. The Euro is slightly overbought and might struggle with the 1.4500/1.4550 area for another week or two.
Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny longs at 1.4450 but be prepared to add to 1.4380; stop below 1.4300. Target 1.4500/1.4550.
Direction of Trade: →↗
Chart Levels:
Support Resistance1.4456 1.44891.4419 1.4508*1.4374 1.45251.4320* 1.4550**1.4275 1.4600GBPUSD

Comment: Journalists scrabbling around for resistance levels as we trade at 2.0825, the highest since May 1981. They are also assuming that we will be rushing over to do our Christmas shopping in the US. Mmm…The pound is somewhat overbought yet futures positions are well below the December 2006 peak. So many still rushing to catch up with what has been going on for six years. Oh dear! We continue to allow for a squeeze up to 2.1100 around year-end. Remember Thanksgiving this month marks the beginning of the holiday season.
Strategy: Possibly attempt longs at 2.0785, adding to 2.0700; stop below 2.0525. Short term target 2.0825 and 2.1000/2.1100 medium term.
Direction of Trade: →↗
Chart Levels:
Support Resistance2.0776 2.08112.0689 2.0825*2.0600 2.09002.0535* 2.1000*2.0400* 2.1100**USDJPY

Comment: A few light stops as we trade above the psychological level at 115.00 and we seem to be stalling at the 26-day moving average at 115.59. We shall continue to watch for signs of topping here.
Strategy: Sell at 115.45; stop well above 116.00. Short term target 113.80 maybe 113.25.
Direction of Trade: →
Chart Levels:
Support Resistance115.18 115.52114.90 115.60*114.38 115.75113.77* 115.90*113.25* 116.20EURJPY

Comment: Squeezing higher towards the highs of earlier this year as many assume the 'carry trade' is alive and well. We continue to hold an extremely cautious stance and will be watching for signs of fatigue today and tomorrow.
Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny shorts at 167.15; stop above 167.85. Cover ahead of 166.00 but re-sell on a sustained break below 165.50 for 164.00 then 163.00.
Direction of Trade: →
Chart Levels:
Support Resistance166.63 167.28166.36 167.48*166.05 167.73*165.85 168.15165.37 169.05**Mizuho Corporate Bank
Disclaimer
The information contained in this paper is based on or derived from information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty is made or implied that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions expressed in this paper are subject to change without notice. This paper has been prepared solely for information purposes and if so decided, for private circulation and does not constitute any solicitation to buy or sell any instrument, or to engage in any trading strategy.

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