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[ابوصقر]

اخى ابو صقر اسعد الله مساءك

اذا سمحتلي بسؤال وتزعلش منى
ماهى المبررات الفنيه والاقتصادية التى تجعلك تؤمن بقوة الدولار وعودته الى سابق امجاده
وهذه الظواهر هتبتدى من امتى؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟
وشكراااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااا

حيّاك الله ياغالي

المبررات فنيّه فقط والأساسي ليس لي فيه خبره كافيه

وهذا تحليل اليورو فنياً

https://forum.arabictrader.com/showthread.php?t=34678

والباوند مشابه له ايضاً

[يورو2006]

اتفق معك بس لما يزور مناطق ال1.50 وبعد كده نشوفه تحت 1 دولار

[ابوصقر]

نعود اليكم من جديد

تحليل Daily FX

US Dollar Major Reversal



Commentary: The EURUSD has made a significant reversal. The decline from 1.4394 appears to be in an extended 3rd wave. A 4th wave correction and drop to a new low in a 5th wave should lead to a larger upward correction. That is the opportunity that we will use to get bearish against 1.4349.

Strategy: Flat

Commentary: It is possible to count 5 waves down from 117.93 so a larger correction is due unless the decline is extending. Under the extension scenario, 114.59 is the 100% of 113.24-114.32/113.51 and a rally to there would potentially complete a correction. This level is also just above the gap open from this weekend. If a larger correction is playing out, then look for resistance at 115.02 (38.2% of 117.93-113.24).

Strategy: Flat

Commentary: The reversal in Cable looks exactly the same as in the EURUSD. The decline is currently in an extended 3rd wave lower and some consolidation in a small 4th wave should happen soon and give way to a 5th wave decline before a larger upward correction in wave 2. That correction will offer is the opportunity to get bearish against the high (2.0547).

Strategy: Flat

Commentary: We wrote Friday that “the USDCHF is headed below 1.1623 to complete the larger decline (which is a terminal thrust from a triangle). A drop below 1.1623 would possibly complete 5 waves down from 1.2468 and give way to a reversal and much larger rally.” After dropping to 1.1599, the USDCHF has skyrocketed nearly 200 pips higher. It is our contention that the pair is headed back to at least the 1.2200 level and possibly much higher.
Strategy: Bullish, against 1.1599, target TBD

Commentary: The USDCAD has finally turned higher. The short term pattern is the exact same as the EURUSD and GBPUSD (but the inverse of course). That is, a small 4th wave correction is unfolding now and once 5 waves up are completed, we expect a deeper correction (lower). This would allow bulls to get aggressive. Given the extreme sentiment extreme in place, this reversal may prove to be the most vicious of all.

Strategy: Flat

Commentary: We wrote last week that, “the AUDUSD is approaching a confluence of Fibonacci levels. The 61.8% of .9077-.8822 is at .8979 and the 100% extension of .8822-.8972/.8838 is at .8988. These are potential reversal levels. From a short EW perspective, the rally from .8822 is clearly corrective and a bearish stance is warranted against .9077.” Wave 3 (or c) is underway now and the pair is approaching the 100% ext of .9077-.8822/.8893, which is potential support. A short term bearish objective is at the 161.8% at .8580.

Strategy: Remain bearish, move risk to .8993 (from .9077), target .8580

Commentary: Kiwi is in the exact same position as the AUSUSD (although the pair has held up a bit better). We wrote Friday that “a wave 2 appears to be nearing completion as price has stalled at the 38.2% of the .7785-.7394 decline at .7543.” Wave 2 did end at .7555 and the break below .7394 confirms that wave 3 (or c) lower is underway. Weakness should continue until at least.7164 (100% of .7785-.7394/.7555), although we contend that a longer term bear market is underway. See our special report from Friday at NZDUSD Top.

Strategy: Get bearish now, against .7500, target 1 at .6930

[ابوصقر]

US Dollar Decline Viewed as Deep Correction of Young Bull

Commentary: The EURUSD decline looks like a clear 5 wave affair, therefore we are treating 1.4349 as a significant top. The advance has unfolded in a corrective manner as well, probably a double zigzag. The rally has stalled at the 61.8% of the 1.4349-1.4125 at 1.4364 and the 78.6% is potential resistance at 1.4301. We advocate an aggressive bearish stance against 1.4349. As the decline unfolds, we will be better able to determine bearish targets.

Strategy: Bearish now, against 1.4349, target TBD (below 1.4125)

Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “it is possible to count 5 waves down from 117.93 so a larger correction is due unless the decline is extending. Under the extension scenario, 114.59 is the 100% of 113.24-114.32/113.51 and a rally to there would potentially complete a correction. This level is also just above the gap open from this weekend. If a larger correction is playing out, then look for resistance at 115.02 (38.2% of 117.93-113.24).” The larger correction appears to be unfolding, so look for resistance closer to the confluence of the former 4th wave / 50 % retrace level of 117.93-113.24 at 115.58/72. The 61.8% at 116.14 is also a potential end point for this rally. Once we see evidence of a top, we will be getting aggressively bearish (and we’ll let you know here).

Strategy: Flat

Commentary: Cable has been treacherous lately, with the break above 2.0494 proving temporary and with yesterday’s decline almost fully retraced. The rally to this point has stalled at the 78.6% of 2.0547-2.0258 and a second wave rally could be nearing completion (also in a double zigzag….like the EURUSD rally). A bearish bias is warranted against 2.0547. The next leg lower could be vicious.

Strategy: Bearish now, against 2.0547, target TBD (below 2.0258)

Commentary: We maintain that the drop below 1.1623 completed 5 waves down from 1.2468 and that a large rally is underway. Potential support is at the 61.8% of 1.1599-1.1785 at 1.1670. A rally through 1.1785 instills confidence in the larger bullish outlook.
Strategy: Bullish, against 1.1599, target TBD

Commentary: The USDCAD turn yesterday appears to have been a fakeout as all of yesterday’s gains were completely reversed. Once thing that has led us to suspect that a larger turn is due is COT positioning. The difference between speculative and commercial positioning is the largest that it has ever been (specs are long CAD and commercials short CAD). This sentiment extreme is often a strong indication that a turn will occur soon. Of course, sentiment extremes can last for some time so until we see evidence of a bottom, we will refrain from taking action in the USDCAD. The count above shows a possible diagonal in the iii of v position. This is against Elliott’s rules but rules are made to be broken.
Strategy: Flat

Commentary: There are two counts that we are tracking. One has a 3 wave correction ending at .8750 and the other has a series of 1st and 2nd waves unfolding from .9077. In the former scenario, price will exceed .9077 before a larger correction. In the latter scenario, this rally will reverse before .8993 and a larger decline will take place. We are favoring the bearish count due to the weight of evidence that calls for a dollar bottom.
Strategy: Remain bearish, move risk to .8993 (from .9077), target .8580

Commentary: Kiwi is in a similar position to the AUDUSD. We maintain that the .7785-.7394 decline was an impulse. This means that at least one more leg lower will take place. The up, down, up scenario that has unfolded since .7394 looks like an a-b-c expanded flat correction. The correction may be complete at .7569 since exceeding .7556 satisfies minimum expectations. See our special report from Friday at NZDUSD Top.

Strategy: Get bearish now, against .7785, targets TBD

[المهندس خالد]

الى الأمام يا أخي
الى الأمام دوما
ونحن معك

[WINNER]

GBP) The next leg lower could be vicious

تسلم أخي أبو صقر و متابعين معاك تحليل رائع.

[golden2000]

تسلم ليك يا ابو صقر
قرات هالتحليلات التى تشير الي عودة الدولار قوى كما كان
ولكن مفيش اي جديد على ارض الواقع يؤيد ه>ا التوقع من اخبار
مارايك

[بسيم محمد]

أخي أبو صقر كل عام و أنت بخير أين أنت في ظل هذة الأحداث

[golden2000]

وحشتنا يا ابو صقر

[شريف دعبس]

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