توصية يومية وتحليلات 1.5.2007

[forex75]

بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

السلام عليكم ,,,,

تقدم اليومالتوصيات والتحليلات الاتية :

التوصية اليومية :
EUR/GBP

الزوج يتواجد الان في منطقة ومجال كتير من الوقت , تغيير الاسعار اصابت في الحد الاعلى للقناة التي ترتفع مع الوقت , بالامكان الملاحضة في رسم بياني يومي 1DAY ,,,,,,, S. Stochastics ايضا يدل ان العملة بطريقها الى 0.6770..........

بالنجاح للجميع


تحليل العملات

USD

The USD pairs provided traders with nice volatility at the opening of the trading week yesterday, as the dollar opened the week stronger against most pairs, and after traveling a measurable distance in both directions it finally closed the day slightly higher. This volatility came on the back of some contrasting economic releases that came both from the US and overseas, from Europe.

The US data that was released yesterday was rather disappointing. The Core PCE Price Index, one of the Fed's most scrutinized measures, declined 0.3% compared with the previous month and printed at 0.0%. Personal Spending also came lower than the expected 0.5% figure, printing a modest 0.3% increase, while Personal Income actually rose 0.7% on expectations of 0.5%. Combining Personal Income and Personal Spending together, an improvement in the American consumer habits – for the first time in a while consumers spends less than they earn. Should this turn into a trend rather than to a single observation, it could translate into declining inflationary readings that will eventually allow the Fed to cut interest rates by the end of this year.

The ISM Manufacturing Index is scheduled for release today and is expected to remain nearly unchanged at 51.0. This could once again be an optimistic estimate, especially in light of yesterday's disappointing Chicago PMI. The Chicago PMI dropped 8.8 pts from the previous month reading of 61.7, printing very close to the 50 boom/bust level. Markets, however, will pay closer attention to the report's components rather to the plain headline figure and to the employment component in particular, as it might shed more light on this Friday's Non Farm Payrolls report. A strong growth in the employment component of today's ISM manufacturing report, even if accompanied with a slightly disappointing headline figure, might help buoy the dollar from present levels, ahead of this week's NFP.

EUR
The EUR has once again traded at its all times highs, at 1.3678, although Euro Zone data came rather mixed. German Retail Sales has sharply dropped over the past month, falling 0.7% on the back of expectations for a 0.8% increase. Following the release, the EUR continued weakening against the USD, but later reversed direction as M3 Money Supply Growth came out strongly higher than expected, at 10.9%, vs. expectations of 9.8%. The strong M3 growth is a matter of real concern to the European Central Bank decision makers, as higher liquidity creates inflationary pressures, to which central bankers usually react by hiking interest rates.

The Euro Zone CPI and Consumer Sentiment that were later released had little impact on the market, as they both came inline with expectations.

Due to the Labor Day, there are no releases scheduled from Europe today, leaving the EUR pairs price action to be determined by releases due out elsewhere, such as the US ISM Manufacturing. In the case of disappointing US figures, the lack of liquidity conditions might help the EUR strengthen beyond its yesterday's highs, and even scrap 1.37.

JPY
Japanese traders are on holiday this week in honor of the Golden Week. Nevertheless, data keeps flowing from Japan. Today, Average Cash Earnings decreased 0.4% YoY, as was widely expected by the markets. Nevertheless, the JPY continued weakening following the release as the falling wages represent a real risk to private consumption and economic growth.
All in all, JPY weakness is likely to prevail through the week, ahead of next week's BoJ Minutes, that will probably shed more light on the BoJ's officials stance on growth, inflation, and interest rates prospects.

التحليل الفني

EURUSD
An upsloping channel at the 4H chart suggests a continuation of the uptrend, but probably not before a correction towards 1.36. Intraday oscillators remain bullish, and dailies are no longer over bought.

GBPUSD
The cable bases itself around 2.00 level, but after breaking this psychological barrier it seems that there is nothing to stop this pair from continuing to climb higher. Some more basing here and then towards last week's high, at 2.0130.

USDJPY
The 120 level seems to once again serve as a significant resistance area, and an ascending triangle is forming. A breakout, potentially 130 pips long is likely to occur to the upside.

USDCHF
The Daily chart produces a bullish divergence, signaling a possible correction to the upside. Intraday oscillators are also bullish, possible lies at the 1.2160 area, the upper boundary of the channel.

EURGBP
This Forex pair is trapped in a range trade for a while now, and price action has hit the upper boundary of an upsloping channel on the Daily. Along with a negative divergence on the S. Stochastics, we expect seeing a correction towards 0.6770

[Walaa Aldin]

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[Ahmed Essam Z]

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