أثناء البحث وجدت معادلة كيلي التي يتم استنتاج حجم الناتج المحتمل بعملية رياضية معينة طبقا للاحتمالات المستخدمة في كل مرة
This is where the Kelly formula comes into play:
K = ( PxB – (1–P) ) / B
where :
K – optimal % risk
P – odds of winning
B – payout on the bet
This formula determines the optimal % of your account that you can bet to get the most profitable outcome in the long run. Let’s calculate K for our scenario:
B = 2 (payout is 2:1)
P = 0.5 (50% chance of winning)
Plugging B and P into the formula gives:
K = (0.5*2 – (1 – 0.5)) / 2 = 0.5 / 2 = 0.25