Barclays Global Daily FX Volume and Tech Strategy
EUR/USD
An Inside day posted yesterday keeps our view unchanged. We maintain a bearish view targeting 1.3300/10 initially, and then the 1.3200/20 area. Sell rallies while 1.3420 caps on a closing basis.
USD/JPY
Having failed to move above trendline resistance at 99.15, we now expect a deeper pullback within range, towards 97.00/05. However, thereafter, a 97 to 99.20 range is likely to persist into Sep and we would look to buy near the range low. Bigger picture, targets are to 103.80 and the 108 area.
GBP/USD We are bearish, looking for a return to 1.5420 and potentially 1.5350. A move back above 1.5670 would turn us neutral instead while wider range highs near 1.5750/75 act as medium-term caps.
USD/CHF Short-term support is at 0.9200 and we are bullish while above this level for a move to 0.9400. A break below 0.9200 though would likely warn of a temporary pullback; in this scenario, we would look to buy again near 0.9130.
EUR/JPY The July peak at 132.80 is holding firm and daily momentum is overbought. The risk is for a return to the 128.90/130.00 area where we would look for basing signs. Near-term resistance: 131.80.
EUR/GBP We are turning neutral assuming a 0.8540 to 0.8625 range in the short term. Medium term, we are bullish for a choppy return to 0.8730/80 though a close below 0.8510 would damage this view.
EUR/CHF
The CHF is catching a small safety bid while EUR crosses are staging a pullback; the price action suggests turning neutral short term though we would look to buy following a test of 1.2300. The
200-day average at 1.2275 should hold firm on a closing basis.
AUD/USD Near term, support at 0.8930 is likely to come under pressure. A break below this level would warn of a move to the 2013 low near 0.8850 which should hold firm on initial attempts. Bearish pressure remains in the absence of a move above 0.9040.
NZD/USD We are bearish targeting the 0.7690/0.7700 area. Resistance on upticks is at 0.7900. For AUD/NZD,we are looking to buy dips towards 1.1400/20 though a break below 1.400 would force us to assume stronger downside to 1.1295.
USD/CAD We are bullish while 1.0460 holds firm, targeting the 2013 peaks near 1.0615. Bigger picture, our targets are to 1.0850 (2010 high).
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