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والله يا أخواني لا أعلم مدى صحة الخبر هذا لكنه سيناريو خطير ان كان صحيحا :-
Fed tapering likely underway already.
Many traders who follow Fed action in Treasury
auctions are increasingly convinced that the Fed
has already begun it’s ‘stealth tapering’. They won’t
be announcing ‘when’ in September, they will be
announcing that it’s already begun. The only
question will be how much. Little wonder that the
USD/JPY bulls have begun to stampede
اعتقد أخواني ان كان هذا السيناريو في المشاركه السابقه صحيحا فسنرى تقلبات قويه و مفاجئه الشهر
القادم , والله اعلم .
HSBC - USD Smashes EM...EUR, GBP, JPY, & Other G10
The USD continues to overpower many emerging market currencies. Since the start of May, for example, the Brazilian real and Indian rupee have fallen 16% against the USD, while the Indonesian rupiah and South African rand have fallen 11%.
Interestingly though, the USD has lost ground to its developed market peers of EUR, GBP and JPY over the same period of time.
In this regard, HSBC argues that such divergence will not persist, with the USD set to reassert its dominance within the G10 currency world also.
"The USD has a mixed historical relationship with Fed tightening cycles, on some occasions strengthening, on others weakening. But rising growth expectations rather than inflation fears are driving the current rise in US yields, which historically has created a stronger USD. So far, this USD strength has been more consistently evident against EM currencies. But we anticipate a fresh bout of USD upside against the EUR, GBP and JPY," HSBC projects.
"Neither the ECB nor the BoE will want to live with rising market interest rates and a stronger currency. Policies will likely respond, through words and actions, taking their currencies lower against the USD. In fact, history shows that over the tightening cycle, the USD has tended to perform consistently across G10. It would be wrong to read too much into its recent weakness against the EUR, GBP and JPY," HSBC adds.
"The USD has smacked EM, and it is coming for G10," HSBC concludes.
TD Securities - USD/CAD showing signs of exhaustion
The USD/CAD saw no pullback at all yesterday and the underlying trend higher has extended higher through the overnight session to reach the low 1.05 area, notes the TD Securities Team.
“A minor stall in the move up coincides with the ultimate Fibonacci resistance of the July/August down leg—76.4% retracement point at 1.0522. That is the only notable resistance point between spot and a return to a 1.06 handle.
“Minor topping signals on the hourly charts again hint at some modest corrective potential but we doubt USD losses will extend too far intraday. Trend momentum remains strongly bullish—a situation reflected across all the shorter-term study periods. We expect firm support in the mid/upper 1.04s now.”
سلام عليكماقتباس:
المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة Abo Abdullah
استاذي هل تتوقع هبوط للعملات قصاد الدولار الفترة الجاية وخاصة الباوند و خصوصا لو اتنفذ السيناريو ده؟
وعليكم السلام ورحمة الله وبركاته , نعم يالغالي اذا كان هذا السيناريو ممكن يفاجئنا وصحيح سيكوناقتباس:
المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة sigmostri
الدولار قويا بلا شك , فنحن دائما يجب ان توقع اي مفاجئات وخصوصا من الفيدرالي .
September tapering coming into focus, economists looking for $15 billion reduction
Primary dealers expect the Fed to slow the pace of asset purchases by $15 billion in an announcement after the September 17-18 meeting. They see a cut of $10 Treasuries and $5 billion MBS. In the same survey, they call for a further $15 billion taper in December.
A June survey showed dealers weren’t expecting a taper until December
GBP/JPY capped by June-July highs but could be poised for breakout
EUR Briefing - New York
[New York, Aug 22 19:45 GMT ] The euro entered the NY session weak, near 1.3315. Expectations of US QE remain on track, despite a slightly disappointing US jobless claims number. The euro moved to lows near 1.33 overnight as US treasury yields continued to move higher. Weakness in the euro as yield differentials between the US and Europe are widening, favoring the USD. The euro rallied, a touch to 1.3350, late in the US afternoon on profit taking as traders re-establish short USD positions ahead of the weekend and US treasuries reversed course set to close at a yield of 2.90% down from highs near 2.94%. Earlier PMI reports out of Europe showed German manufacturing well above 50, France disappointed coming in at 49.7 & the EZ overall was at 51.3. Interest rate diff's will continue to take center stage with The US NFP in early September a key focal point as we near September taper. The 10-DMA continues to be key support, though tested recently it continues to hold on a closing basis. A break of the 10-DMA exposes the Kijun line near 1.3260. (PAS) Copyright (c) 2013 Thomson Reuters - IFRMarkets
US Dollar Index Five Waves Up Points to Higher USD
EURUSD found some support an hour back or so, after disappointing US Unemployment claims. So I decided to check the intra-day structure on USD Index to see where the buck is positioned and headed next. Well, on the line chart I can see some very clear impulse to the upside, but its presented on a line chart. Its a clear five wave move with a textbook example of an extended wave three. If you are still learning Elliott Wave, then I suggest you to save and print this chart.
Current structure suggests that low is in place, because five-wave move is important evidence for a direction of a current trend. If that’s the case then we know that any pull-back to the downside should be only corrective retracement before USD breaks even higher.
By: Gregor_Horvat
Welcome to Friday and a quick look at the NZD chart.
Lots of Aussie/kiwi buying yesterday kept the NZD downtrodden.
We market up near-term resistance on the chart, 0.7865/70 (with stop loss buyers above), and 0.7940/45, and again stops above there
Both USD strength and JPY weakness becoming apparent across other pairs as well. NZD/USD now putting pressure on good-sized sell stops below .7800
As the Nikkei opens strong, USD/JPY pushes higher with eyes set on large stops above 99.00
Deutsche Bank - August Nonfarm payrolls the key factor to initiate tapering
Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank analyze the key factors that remain, leading up to the September Fed meeting.
“The FOMC also discussed the potential for a fixed-rate, full-allotment overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility which could be used to eventually adjust financial system liquidity at a later stage.”
“There was some consolation for the doves given there was some discussion about the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds with some members willing to contemplate lowering the unemployment threshold if further accommodation were necessary.”
“Overall we economists think that the minutes signal that policymakers are willing to consider a taper in the near term, but they need decent data—in particular employment data—to support their decision. On that note, August payrolls will be the determining factor.”
UBS - S/T Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, & AUD/USD
EUR/USD: (Bullish) The pair is under correction having tested the important resistance at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3298 ahead of 1.3206. Resistance is at 1.3452 ahead of 1.3520.
USD/JPY: (Bullish) The recent strength is trading just shy of first resistance at 99.34, a break above which would open 101.53. Support is at 96.91.
GBP/USD: (Neutral) Having advanced sharply, the pair is correcting and unwinding the sharp advance. Support is at 1.5536 ahead of 1.5423. Resistance is at 1.5665 ahead of 1.5752.
AUD/USD: (Bearish) There is scope for more weakness and support focus is at 0.8848, a break below which would expose 0.8545. Resistance is at 0.9082 ahead of 0.9233.
*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined above is determined by UBS proprietary model and is independent of its discretionary interpretation of price action.
Commerzbank - S/T FX Views & latest Bullish/Bearish FX Signals
The following tables and charts provide Commerzbank's latest s/t technical FX views along with bullish and bearish trending signals for FX, and a selection of other financial instruments.