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Bernanke: Global Integration Should Not Be Taken For Granted 10:42 / Aug 25


By Mark Hemingway

JACKSON HOLE, Wyo. (MNI) - The continued rapid progress of
global integration should not be taken for granted, Federal Reserve
Chairman Ben Bernanke said Friday in a speech devoid of current
economic and monetary policy references.

"Geopolitical concerns, including international tensions and the
risks of terrorism, already constrain the pace of worldwide economic
integration and may do so even more in the future," Bernanke said at the
annual conference organized by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank.

Bernanke also warned that policymakers do play a role in ensuring
that the benefits of global integration are spread fairly and that this
is crucial to suppressing protectionist sentiment which would constrain
integration even further.

"The challenge for policymakers is to ensure that the benefits of
economic integration are sufficiently widely shared -- for example,
by helping displaced workers get the necessary training to take
advantage of new opportunities -- that a consensus for welfare-enhancing
change can be obtained," Bernanke said.

Otherwise, Bernanke noted protectionism becomes a more politically
viable solution. "The natural reaction of those so affected is to resist
change, for example, by seeking the passage of protectionist measures,"
he said.

Regarding global integration, Bernanke also observed that the
"scale and pace of the current episode is unprecedented." He also made a
few other observations about how the most recent episode differs
historically.

One, Bernanke noted that distinction between the "core and
periphery" is becoming less relevant. In referring to the core and
periphery, Bernanke was referring to a historical pattern prominent in
the 19th century where the core exported manufactured goods to the
periphery of the economies in exchange for commodities. This model "no
longer holds," as "an increasing share of world manufacturing capacity
is now found in emerging markets," he said.

Two, Bernanke observed that manufacturing processes are now
"fragmented to an unprecedented degree." To illustrate this Bernanke
gives the example of microprocessor manufacturer AMD.

"The U.S. chip producer AMD locates most of its research and
development in California; produces in Texas, Germany, and Japan; does
final processing and testing in Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, and
China; and then sells to markets around the globe," he said.
"Substantial productivity gains can often be achieved through the
development of global supply chains.

The final distinguishing fact, in Bernanke's eyes, is the increased
maturity of international capital markets. "Although the net capital
flows of a century ago, measured relative to global output, are
comparable to those of the present, gross flows today are much larger,"
he said. "Moreover, capital flows now take many more forms than in the
past ... . Today, international investors hold an array of debt
instruments, equities, and derivatives, including claims on a broad
range of sectors."

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[ahmed hanafy]

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