ساكو 17 يناير

[احمد سعيد]

Published: Jan. 17 2005, 07:52 GMT

Slow deay ahead...

Lower than expected US PPI fails to support US treasuries on Friday, helping to support the USD. Chinese FX reserves rise to over $600 billion by the end of Dec – a 50% increase from primo 2004.



MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION



Japan’s Consumer Confidence level drops to lowest level since survey began last spring.

Chinese Foreign Exchange reserves 50% higher than they were at beginning of 2004.

Australian Home Loans jumped 2.7% in Nov.

Quiet Asian session sees very little action – all within late Friday’s ranges.





















THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION

Market has very little to go on today as all US markets are closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. memorial holiday.

The setup from last week still calls for more USD and especially JPY strength.

Japan’s Ministry of Finance has so far only issued the standard “will monitor markets closely” in terms of whether they will intervene in the markets as USD/JPY is pressing close to the multi-year lows around 101.90

Trading Note: Late Friday saw a continuation of the JPY strength while most USD pairs remained rangebound. The market really seems to be testing the BoJ’s mettle. Today will offer little to go on as US Markets are closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. memorial holiday. The USD looks to strengthen later this week however.











EURUSD

EUR/USD ranged back and forth in a tight range overnight and may continue to do so until tomorrow with the US closed on Monday. 1.3140 is resistance, as EUR/USD looks to break lower again through 1.3060 support and on to perhaps 1.2900 as the correction looks to deepen. Only a break and hold above 1.3170 would set up a potential reversal scenario.

[font='trebuchet ms', arial, sans-serif]Resist.1.3460

1.3294



1.3120



1.3962



1.3796

Support
[/font]






GBPUSD

GBP/USD remains rangebound. 1.8750 is first resistance, though a spill-over to the 1.8800 area would hardly threaten the still bearish chart. The USD may head stronger later this week, with a first major target below recent 1.8650 lows coming in around 1.8400.

[font='trebuchet ms', arial, sans-serif]Resist.1.8852

1.8774



1.8741



1.8618



1.8540

Support
[/font]






USDJPY

USD/JPY went almost all the way to the brink on late Friday, suggesting that more downside is in the wings. 102.30 is first resistance, and 102.75 is the next resistance higher. The shorter term downside may be a bit slow going until the 101.90 level is taken out to the downside and in general, the market may have a hard time getting beyond the huge 100.00 level further out as the market tests the Japanese Ministry of Finance/BoJ’s resolve.

[font='trebuchet ms', arial, sans-serif]Resist.105.22

103.78



102.08



100.90



99.46

Support
[/font]






EURJPY

Every expectation of short term support for EUR/JPY has been frustrated as this pair seems to be a one-way street downward lately – fitting in with the overall view of further downside even as the technical action frustrates. The 134.00 area is first resistance, with higher resistance coming in just above 135.00 if EUR/JPY does decide to consolidate some of its losses in the near term. The major downside target is still 130.00 further out, with lower levels still even further down the road as a new major bear market is under way for this pair.

[font='trebuchet ms', arial, sans-serif]Resist.138.41136.31





133.92



132.11



130.01

Support
[/font]






USDCAD

USD/CAD gave traders a painful case of whiplash on Friday as the pair saw huge two-way action. The upside seems to be winning for now, and with the break above 1.2140 and generally bullish USD outlook, the pair may head much higher still. 1.2140 is support, with last-ditch support in the 1.2075 area. A break higher through the 1.2240 level helps confirm the rally. USD/CAD may eventually make it to 1.2650 much further down the road if the 1.2460 top is taken out.



[font='trebuchet ms', arial, sans-serif]Resist.1.2519

1.2328



1.2155



1.1945



1.1754

Support
[/font]






USDCHF

USD/CHF is creating a well-organized consolidation pattern above the 1.1775 swing area as it looks to run much higher toward 1.2000+ in the near future. First support is 1.1775, though in a broader perspective, USD/CHF can stand a test all the way down to 1.1600 without seriously threatening the longer term bullishness of the chart. (a test to these levels remains low odds at this time, however.)





[font='trebuchet ms', arial, sans-serif]Resist.1.21149
1.1955




1.1799



1.1628



1.1465

Support
[/font]






AUDUSD

AUD/USD remains in its range, with the upper bound around 0.7640 and the lower bound around 0.7550. An eventual break lower is preferred, with next target of 0.7450 support and then possibly 0.7360 further out.

[font='trebuchet ms', arial, sans-serif]Resist.

0.7788



0.7697



0.7614



0.7514




0.7422
Support
[/font]






NZDUSD

For NZD/USD, the 0.7000/20 area may now provide resistance. If the pair breaks the recent 0.6925 low, the next decline phase could see NZD/USD to 0.6740.

[font='trebuchet ms', arial, sans-serif]Resist.0.7165

0.7084



0.7004



0.6921



0.6839

Support
[/font]




The support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

[أسامه عبده]

شكرا لك على جهودك الملحوظه والتي هي محل إهتمامنا

.

بارك الله فيك أخي أحمد سعيد وكتب لك الأجر الوفير

.

[ابو حســام]

مشكور اخ احمد على هذه المتابعه الرائعه


سؤال على الطاير للوافي ... ايش اخبار روبرت بالان؟؟؟ ايش سويت فيه؟؟ لا يكون انفصل بسببك؟؟

هل فيه بوادر لعودته ؟