ساكو 13 يناير

[احمد سعيد]

Published: Jan. 13 2005, 07:36 GMT
USD weakens on US trade Balance number!

Asian session sees USD retracing some of the ground it lost in yesterday’s blow-out in the wake of a record US Trade Deficit. Watch out for Trichet press conference and US Retail Sales at 13:30.



MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION



Asian session sees small retracement of huge USD weakness move yesterday.

Australian jobless rate drops to a 28-year low of 5.1% while the participation rate rose slightly to 63.8% from 63.7% last month.

























THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION

Watch out for the Trichet press conference today at 13:30. He may be a bit more hawkish than the market is willing to admit. The effect on Bunds and the Euro could be especially interesting –tough to say in this market environment whether prospects for a rise in European rates later this year would be welcome as some might say it could snuff out the recovery potential for the European economy.

Also interesting to watch will be whether Trichet follows up on the recent comments by the ECB’s Issing, who came down hard on the Asian’s need to allow their currencies to strengthen.

US Retail Sales also on tap and are a bit more important than usual as they contain the tallies for the Christmas shopping season.

Trading Note: Yesterday’s move to USD weakness was so powerful that we could see a move to more weakness today and/or in the coming few sessions, but USD strength may still win out further down the line.







EURUSD

EUR/USD has been all the way to 1.3290 and could pull back to the 1.3240/50 area, which now acts as support. One more surge higher toward perhaps 1.3340 may materialize in the short term, but we keep the longer term bearish outlook unless 1.3450 or higher is taken out.

[font='trebuchet ms', arial, sans-serif]Resist.1.3631

1.3421



1.3257



1.3001



1.2791

Support
[/font]






GBPUSD

The GBP/USD top was around 1.8935 yesterday as all initial resistance was cleanly taken out. The pair may gain more on the momentum generated yesterday, but could top out around 1.9020/40. Support comes in around 1.8860.

[font='trebuchet ms', arial, sans-serif]Resist.1.9273

1.9065



1.8926



1.8649



1.8441

Support
[/font]






USDJPY

USD/JPY move much lower to within striking distance of 102.00, taking out all near-term support levels along the way before retracing a bit overnight. The retracement could extend a bit toward 102.75, but the pair may find resistance there and go on for a challenge of the 101.90 base and on to 100.0 – a level not seen in over 9 years.

[font='trebuchet ms', arial, sans-serif]Resist.105.54

104.13



102.36



101.31



99.90

Support
[/font]






EURJPY

EUR/JPY found a bit of support yesterday as USD weakness came more into focus than JPY strength. The pair may actually see a small relief rally as EUR/JPY often rallies whenever EUR/USD rallies, so 137.00 again is not out of the question before the bearish trend reasserts itself further out and EUR/JPY heads toward the next target at 134.00 A hawkish Trichet could aid the upside argument for this pair.

[font='trebuchet ms', arial, sans-serif]Resist.137.82

136.75



135.69



134.61



133.54

Support
[/font]






USDCAD

USD/CAD sank like a lead weight yesterday, even briefly moving below the recent 1.1975 low and on to 1.1950 before finding support. The retracement could pull the pair higher toward 1.2060/80 again before USD/CAD heads lower toward a possible retest of the 1.1800 area in the coming sessions. 1.2140 is an important higher resistance area.



[font='trebuchet ms', arial, sans-serif]Resist.1.2594

1.2327



1.2014



1.2794



1.1528

Support
[/font]
USDCAD Options

USDCAD volatility is trading at a higher level than EURUSD in the front end of the volatility curve, a very unusual situation. We do see value in selling USDCAD straddles in the 2 months date versus buying EURUSD likewise the 2 months date.

We emphasize however that we prefer to see a stronger confirmation and that this trade is for the experienced option trader.







USDCHF

USD/CHF saw as low as 1.1630 and could retry that area in the coming session and even push lower toward the key 1.1550 support area. Resistance comes in at 1.1700 Still, the downside may not last long as USD/CHF could right itself and rally toward 1.2000 further out.



[font='trebuchet ms', arial, sans-serif]Resist.1.2147

1.1933



1.1674



1.1504



1.1289

Support
[/font]






AUDUSD

AUD/USD rallied to just short of the 0.7700 resistance. The pair may rally further toward 0.7770 where a descending trendline currently comes in. While a break of these areas would theoretically neutralize the recent sell-off, AUD/USD upside may not last for long. Support now comes in at 0.7640.

[font='trebuchet ms', arial, sans-serif]Resist.0.7930

0.7785



0.7661



0.7494



0.7348

Support
[/font]






NZDUSD

NZD/USD could pull higher toward 0.7125, but if the USD strengthens again further out, could begin a quick demise toward 0.6720.

[font='trebuchet ms', arial, sans-serif]Resist.0.7341

0.7186



0.7055



0.6875



0.6719

Support
[/font]




The support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

[وجد الكتابه!!]

جزاك الله خير على هذه المعلومات