تحليل ساكو 30 ديسمبر

[احمد سعيد]

Published: Dec. 30 2004, 07:32 GMT
USD tests both sides of range

USD tests both sides of range again in thin markets. EUR/JPY breaks strongly to new 6-year high above 141.00 as USD/JPY first broke higher and then partially reversed overnight.



Note: Between Christmas and New Years, there will be only one daily publication. This will be the morning briefing for the European session. No update will be published on Friday 31st in either session.



MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION



USD/CAD breaking to new recent lows below 1.2140 on the strong oil prices and reversal back to general USD weakness overnight.

EUR/JPY having a hard time finding a top – but may find one soon anyway.



















THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION









EUR/USD appears to be priming for a go at 1.3850 and perhaps beyond early in the New Year.

GBP traders: watch out for GfK Consumer Confidence today and note that UK wages have increase 3.0% between Sep. and Nov. (perhaps there’s been too much focus on the housing issue.) This could allow some surprise upside in GBP/USD today.

Trading Note: The big opportunities may be over with for this year – though with the latest action, there seems a distinct chance that we could see a break to new levels of USD weakness in EUR/USD and USD/CHF today. Every USD rally seems to be met with a new wave of selling.







EURUSD

EUR/USD tested the 1.3570 support area once again, but held after a little slippage below that level. The resumption of the rally back toward the recent top of 1.36540 suggests a market that isn’t willing to go down. Minor support comes in just below 1.3600 and the rally in EUR/USD could soon extend to 1.3850 and perhaps slightly beyond in the first couple of weeks of the New Year.

[font='trebuchet ms', arial, sans-serif]Resist.1.37841.36941.36201.35141.3424Support
[/font]






GBPUSD

GBP/USD was obliterated yesterday – all the way back to 1.9120 - as perhaps the monster rally in EUR/GBP was in focus on the lowest UK mortgage approval levels on record. Today’s UK House Prices follow up the housing theme – but as we mentioned – this theme may be slightly overdone as the underlying economy is still robust in the UK. Still, GBP/USD needs to reattain 1.9275 to show further rally potential. 1.9150 is support.

[font='trebuchet ms', arial, sans-serif]Resist.1.93291.92561.92081.91101.9037Support
[/font]






USDJPY

USD/JPY pulled higher as the 103.50 resistance did not hold and EUR/JPY blasted to new highs, but the strong reversal overnight sets up a possible double reversal if USD/JPY trades back below 103.50 soon. That eventuality could quickly swing USD/JPY to 101.90 support and then on to 100.

[font='trebuchet ms', arial, sans-serif]Resist.106.23104.99103.74102.51101.27Support
[/font]






EURJPY

EUR/JPY popped higher to a new 6-year peak at 141.60, but the pair’s rallying days may be numbered. Look for a fall back below 140.90 as a sign of a further reversal lower. Short EUR/JPY is our trade of 2005 with an eventual target of 120.00.

[font='trebuchet ms', arial, sans-serif]Resist.143.82142.41141.27139.59138.18Support
[/font]






USDCAD

USD/CAD was capped by higher oil prices and pushed handily below the 1.2140 support as it may be on its way to 1.2040 or below. 1.2140 is resistance.

[font='trebuchet ms', arial, sans-serif]Resist.1.23731.22571.21141.20251.1909Support
[/font]






USDCHF

USD/CHF flirted with the low end of the range once again and may finally follow through lower today or in the next few trading sessions below the 1.1300 low. Next major target is 1.1160. 1.1380 is resistance.

[font='trebuchet ms', arial, sans-serif]Resist.1.15041.14251.13361.12661.1186Support
[/font]






AUDUSD

AUD/USD came unwound yesterday in thin markets and traded all the way back to the low support at 0.7700 before rallying again back to 0.7750. If the pair can pull higher to 0.7800, it may continue higher to challenge the 0.7945 top in the coming weeks.

[font='trebuchet ms', arial, sans-serif]Resist.0.79550.78530.77540.76480.7545Support
[/font]






NZDUSD

NZD/USD fell below 0.7150 support and all the way back to final support at 0.7100 as this pair seems to be having a hard time making a go of it and is pressured by AUD/NZD. NZD/USD may trade back toward 0.7200 if 0.7150 can broken. 0.7100 is support.

[font='trebuchet ms', arial, sans-serif]Resist.0.73700.72620.71430.70460.6938Support
[/font]




The support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur

[kmnk2000]

الله يعطيك العافية

[Dollar Bill]

الله يجزاك خير..

وملاحظة صغيرة: نقاط الدعم والمقاومة غير واضحة لأن الأرقام ملتصقة ببعضها، اذا أمكن تعديلها.

تسلم أخوي ;)

[abofaris73]

جزاك الله خيرا