من هو الساحر ! أقصد القائد ! ...

[Lion]

Dollar May Find Support from Bernanke, Trichet, Muto

FOREX-Bernanke helps dollar to session highs vs euro, yen

NEW YORK, June 5 (Reuters) - The dollar rose against the euro and yen on Monday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank would remain vigilant in its attempts to stem a rise in core inflation. That increased market expectations the Fed would raise interest rates later this month and pushed the euro <EUR=> down to $1.2907, near its $1.2902 session low.

Speaking at an international monetary conference in Washington, Bernanke said he was concerned about core inflation, which has reached levels that, if sustained, would be at or above the upper end of the range he views as consistent with price stability.

"He was definitely more hawkish than the market thought he would be, and that's given the dollar a bit of fresh air," said Firas Askari, head of foreign exchange trading at BMO Nesbitt Burns in Toronto.

After Bernanke's comments, fed funds futures <FFN6> showed as high as a 76 percent chance of a 17th consecutive rate increase from the Federal Reserve in June, up from 48 percent on Friday, when a weak May payrolls report made many dealers favor a June pause.

"It's interesting how the foreign exchange market has done so much agonizing on whether or not the Fed hikes, and it seems to be a pendulum that keeps swinging back and forth," said Lara Rhame, currency strategist at Credit Suisse in New York. At the same conference, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet offered no insight into the bank's plans, though he did say the euro zone has more persistent inflation than the United States.

Markets widely expect the ECB to hike rates at its policy meeting on Thursday, and a recent spate of strong euro zone data helped the currency hit a one-year high of $1.2980 against the dollar in overnight trade.

Against the yen, the euro <EURJPY=> was still up 0.35 percent on the day at 144.87. The dollar was up 0.45 percent against the yen <JPY=> at 112.22, near its session peak of 112.30.

Also at the Washington conference, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Toshiro Muto warned that unwinding global imbalances could not be done through currency moves alone, which traders said was also boosting the dollar against the yen. ROUGH RIDE AHEAD

Many market participants said Monday's gains, however, do not signal an end the dollar's longer-term woe. The U.S. currency has shed more than 9 percent against the euro since the start of 2006 and almost 5 percent against the yen.

Indeed, some traders noted that the market was severely short dollars heading into Bernanke's remarks and was looking for an excuse to cover these positions.

Currency speculators in Chicago's International Monetary Market boosted their net long positions in the euro to a record 79,884 contracts in the week to May 30, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.

"I still think the dollar is in serious trouble," said Askari. "And it's clear to the markets that there are a series of rate hikes coming from the ECB, while the Fed, if it isn't done now, will probably be done after one more move." Earlier Monday, the dollar showed little reaction to the Institute for Supply Management's service index for May, which came in at 60.1, very close to expectations.

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[Lion]

FOREX-Bernanke helps dollar to session highs vs euro, yen.

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FOREX-Dollar keeps gains made on Bernanke comments

TOKYO, June 6 (Reuters) - The dollar held on to gains on Tuesday after traders took Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's pledge to keep an eye on inflation risks as a sign that U.S. interest rates would keep climbing.

Speaking at an international monetary conference in Washington on Monday, Bernanke suggested he was concerned about core inflation and the possibility that it could pierce the upper end of the range he views as consistent with price stability. This helped to boost expectations that the Fed will raise rates for the 17th straight time to 5.25 percent later this month. In the wake of weak jobs data on Friday, the market had started to lean towards the possibility of a pause in rate rises.

Some traders said that investors remained keen to sell the dollar, and that prospects for a rate rise alone would not be enough to fuel a further recovery.

"Bernanke's comments may have triggered some short covering ... but a rise in the dollar/yen to 113 yen is going to be pretty tricky," said Nobuaki Kubo, forex planning manager at Resona Bank.

Traders jumped at the chance to cover more of the short positions that had piled up during the dollar's 9 percent plunge against the euro to a one-year low and 5 percent fall versus the yen to an eight-month trough this year.

In early Tokyo trade, the dollar was little changed at 112.25 yen <JPY=> after gaining nearly half a percent on Bernanke's comments.

Traders said that institutional investors such as Japanese exporters had lined up orders to sell the dollar around 113 yen, making that level a difficult hurdle.

The dollar was at 1.2900 per euro <EUR=>, down slightly from the level in late U.S. trade but keeping most of the gains made after recovering from a slide to 1.2980 on Monday -- its lowest level since May 2005.

The single European currency was little changed at 144.85 yen <EURJPY=> after rising to a six-week high of 144.99 yen earlier in Tokyo trade.

[Lion]

تسلم راية الحرب ضد الدولار للباوند ويتبعه الأخوة !! ..

[Lion]

تسلم راية الحرب ضد الدولار للباوند ويتبعه الأخوة !! ..

Euro May Advance as Services Growth Reaches Five-Year High Last Month
June 6 (Bloomberg) -- The euro may gain as a report showed growth in European services industries was the strongest in more than five years, adding to the case for faster interest-rate increases.

The euro reached a 13-month high yesterday on speculation the European Central Bank may opt for a greater-than-expected half-point increase in its benchmark rate this week. The common currency in up 8.8 percent versus the dollar this year on speculation the ECB will outpace the Federal Reserve in lifting borrowing costs.

``The euro's in a bit of a sweet spot,'' said Gavin Friend, a currency strategist at Commerzbank AG in London. ``With the economy looking strong the ECB have the chance to keep raising rates. The view held by some is that they may go for a 50 basis point increase.''

The euro traded at $1.2917 at 9:05 a.m. in London from $1.2906 late in New York yesterday, when it reached $1.2979, the highest since May, 2005. The 12-nation currency was at 144.97 yen, from 144.85.

The Frankfurt-based central bank, led by Jean-Claude Trichet, will lift its refinancing rate a quarter point to 2.75 percent June 8, according to all bar one of the 47 economists Bloomberg surveyed. The dissenter predicted a move to 3 percent.

Growth in the euro region is expanding at ``close to our potential,'' Trichet said in Washington yesterday.

Faster Growth

Europe's PMI index, based on the responses of 2,000 purchasing managers at companies such as banks and airlines, rose to 58.7, the highest since September 2000, from 58.3 in April, beating the median forecast of 58.5 in a Bloomberg survey. NTC Economics Ltd. compiles the measure for Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.

A reading above 50 indicates growth. Service industries account for a third of the euro area's $10 trillion economy.

ECB policy makers Nout Wellink and Axel Weber have suggested a half-point increase is possible as oil prices at around $70 a barrel, a growing economy and faster lending push up inflation.

``If we do get a better-than-expected PMI, this could be one more factor to sell the dollar and buy euros,'' said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at the Bank of New York in New York. ``We're going to need the ECB to deliver a 50 basis- point rate hike on Thursday for us to breach the $1.30 level.''

The dollar rose yesterday after Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said recent gains in measures of inflation are ``unwelcome,'' indicating the central bank may increase its key rate for a 17th consecutive time this month.

`Period of Strength'

Interest-rate futures show traders see a 72 percent chance of a quarter-percentage point Fed rate increase to 5.25 percent on June 29, up from 48 percent before Bernanke spoke.

``Interest rates should continue to move higher,'' said Jonathan Barratt, head of foreign exchange and precious metals at Tricom Futures Pty in Sydney. ``We're going to go through a period of strength in the dollar'' to 115 yen and $1.24 against the euro in one month, Barratt said.

Futures traders are betting the ECB will boost its benchmark rate to 3.25 percent by year-end. The yield on the three-month Euribor contract due December 2006 was unchanged at 3.50 percent today.

The contracts, which are traded electronically on the London International Financial Futures Exchange, settle to the three- month euro interbank offered rate, which has averaged 16 basis points above the ECB's benchmark rate since the 1999 introduction of the euro.

Low Rates

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Toshiro Muto spoke yesterday to the American Bankers Association in Washington alongside Bernanke, saying Japanese policy makers can maintain low rates for ``some time,'' and future adjustments will be gradual.

The yen traded at 112.25 yen from 112.24 yesterday.

The Bank of Japan ended its policy of pumping cash into the economy on March 9, and has since drained excess cash from the banking system, a precursor to raising rates for the first time since August 2000.

Nine of 16 economists Bloomberg surveyed before a monetary policy meeting last month forecast the bank would raise its key overnight rate in July. None expected an increase in June.

[Lion]

Euro May Advance as Services Growth Reaches Five-Year High Last Month
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تراجع الدولار واستمرار الشكوك بشأن الفائدة بعد تصريحات برنانكي

لندن (رويترز) - انخفض الدولار الامريكي مقابل اليورو الاوروبي يوم الثلاثاء لتصبح المسافة نصف سنت فقط بينه وبين أدنى مستوى منذ عام والذي سجله في الاونة الاخيرة وذلك بعد أن فشلت تصريحات من بن برنانكي رئيس مجلس الاحتياطي الاتحادي (البنك المركزي الامريكي) في اخماد شكوك في رفع أسعار الفائدة الامريكية هذا الشهر.

وكان برنانكي أشار في مؤتمر نقدي دولي في واشنطن يوم الاثنين الى ان مجلس الاحتياطي يحتاج لليقظة حتى يتأكد ان التضخم تحت السيطرة رغم أن الاقتصاد الامريكي بدأ يشهد تباطوءا في معدل النمو.

وقد شهدت الاسواق اقبالا على شراء الدولار لتغطية المراكز المدينة بفضل احتمال رفع الفائدة الامريكية للمرة السابعة عشرة على التوالي الى 5.25 في المئة مما ساعد في انتعاش العملة الامريكية من اثار موجة بيع أعقبت اعلان بيانات الوظائف الجديدة في الولايات المتحدة يوم الجمعة والتي جاءت اضعف من المتوقع.

لكن انتعاش الدولار كان محدودا لان بعض المستثمرين يشعرون بالقلق لحالة الاقتصاد الامريكي.

وارتفع اليورو الاوروبي الى 1.2936 دولار مقارنة مع مستوى 1.2980 دولار الذي بلغه قبل تصريحات برنانكي. لكنه تراجع الى 1.2915 دولار بحلول الساعة 0745 بتوقيت جرينتش.

واستقر الدولار على 112.22 ين.

وارتفع اليورو عن 145 ينا ليسجل أعلى مستوى منذ ستة أسابيع.

ويتوقع أغلب المحللين أن يرفع البنك المركزي الاوروبي الفائدة ربع نقطة مئوية الى 2.75 في المئة يوم الخميس وأن يشير الى اتجاهه لتقييد الاقراض مستقبلا. لكن هناك تكهنات باحتمال رفع الفائدة نصف نقطة مئوية.

[نظرة عقلانية]

في طبخ كبير الان يصير في السوق باين من ازاوج الين

في شيء كبير في سوق امريكا مزنقين ازواج الين بشكل غريب ومو قادرة تتحرك لها كم ساعه في نطاق ضيق

[Lion]

في طبخ كبير الان يصير في السوق باين من ازاوج الين

في شيء كبير في سوق امريكا مزنقين ازواج الين بشكل غريب ومو قادرة تتحرك لها كم ساعه في نطاق ضيق

والله علمي علمك يا استاذي العزيز
في اليوم تصريحات لااعلم مدى تأثيرها :

[ماجد كو]

الساحر
هو
محمود عبد العزيز
ههههههههههههههههههه

عزيزى مع أحترامى لكل أراء الخبراء

ليس هناك عملة قائدة فى السوق وأنما أذا أردنا أن نعرف أى زوج يتأثير فوراً ويتبعه بقيت الأزواج فهو بالطبع GBP-USD فهو أسرع الأزواج فى معرفة مسار السوق ولكنه ليس قائدهم

وأنما القائد هو السلع (هو رغبة الأفراد فى الشراء لسلعة معينة من بلد معين بعملة معينة)
فحركة الأستيراد والتصدير فقط هى الأساس لوجود هذا السوق

والقائد فى السلع (السوق بمفهومك)
هو
البترول
ثم
البترول
ثم
البترول
ثم
الدهب
ونتيجة لأن هذه السلع حتى وقتنا هذا تقيم بالدولار فيمكن معرفة حالة وأتجاه السوق بمجرد النظر فى أسعار البترول وباقى السلع بشكل عام

اخي شريف اخواني الكرام بعد التحية والسلام
ممكن ان تؤكدوا لي هذا الكلام هل صحيح ان هذا السوق يتأثر بالصادر والوارد من السلع والخدمات وبالتالي شراء سلعه بشكل كبير يؤدي الى ارتفاع عملة تلك السلعه من عدمه هل هذا ما يحرك السوق ( الفوركس ، وما هي السلعه الاولى والثانيه والثالثه من ناحية القوة )ام ان مضاربة البنوك المركزيه مثلا هي الاقوى في تحريك العملات ارجو الافاده حيث انني ادور على هذه المعلومه من زمان حول ماهية الفوركس وتسلمممون على المعلومات.

[نظرة عقلانية]

في طبخ كبير الان يصير في السوق باين من ازاوج الين

في شيء كبير في سوق امريكا مزنقين ازواج الين بشكل غريب ومو قادرة تتحرك لها كم ساعه في نطاق ضيق

كما توقعت
وعملو الحركة قبل امريكا
زنقو على ازاوج الين للاكثر من ثلاث ساعات جنب اللو في عملية تجميع مثل الي تصير في الاسهم
وذلك في دولار/ين تجميع تجميع تجميع ثلاث ساعات
بينما اليورو/ين ينزل ببط بخباثة
وعند اقتراب اليوور/ين من جنب اللو
واصلا دولار/ين كان له ثلاث ساعات جنب اللو يجمع
وفي دقيقة
هب تك انفجر الدولار/لفوق مع بيع لليورو
فصار خلل في زوج اليوو/ين وينزل يضرب لو بينما دولار/ين فلت فوق
فانعكس على اليورو /دولار
لعب كبير
صدقوني ينعرف من حركة معينة في الازواج لما تصير اعرف ان في مصيبة للسوق والدولار يطبخ شيء
اننه القائد الدولار /ين يلعب كيما يشاء
وليس يورو /دولار القائد والديل
الدولار/ين من تحكم في الحركة الان