تقرير قناة بلومبرج الاسبوعى

[salahedeen]

Dollar Gains for Week as Inflation Boosts Fed Rate Speculation Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose this week against the euro and the yen on expectations the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates after inflation accelerated last quarter and sales of new homes unexpectedly increased.

The Fed has increased its benchmark rate 13 consecutive times since June 2004 to 4.25 percent, helping spur a more than 14 percent rally in the dollar versus the euro and yen last year. The inflation gauge reinforced speculation the central bank will raise rates two more times, even after the government said U.S. economic growth slowed more than forecast last quarter.

``Looking at the mix of data, you do have lingering concern about inflation pressures,'' said Samarjit Shankar, director of global strategy for the foreign exchange group in Boston at Mellon Financial Corp. The Fed will keep raising rates ``at least until they are convinced inflation pressures are substantially muted. The dollar bulls hold sway,'' he said.

The dollar rose 0.3 percent this week to $1.2094 at 5 p.m. in New York from $1.2134 on Jan. 20, its third straight weekly gain. The U.S. currency also climbed 1.8 percent to 117.33 yen from 115.29, the largest weekly increase in almost three months.

Traders in rate futures expect the Fed to lift its overnight rate to 4.5 percent on Jan. 31. They see a greater than 70 percent chance of an increase to 4.75 percent on March 28, based on futures yields before the first-quarter growth report. Higher interest rates make a country's debt securities more appealing to foreign investors, who need the currency to buy them.

`Still Inflation Pressures'

The core personal consumption expenditures index rose at a 2.2 percent rate, compared with 1.4 percent in the third quarter and a 1.7 percent pace in the second quarter, the government said yesterday. Fed policy makers use the core index as their inflation measure of choice.

Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S. rose 1.1 percent, from 4.1 percent in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said yesterday in Washington. Economists expected the economy to expand at a 2.8 percent rate, based on the median estimate of 72 economists in a Bloomberg survey.

``The price index showed there are still inflation pressures,'' said Kathy Lien, a currency strategist in New York at Forex Capital Markets LLC. ``Given the mixture of the data we're still on path for a quarter-point increase at the end of this month.''

Short Positions

Sales of new homes rose 2.9 percent in December to an annual rate of 1.269 million, capping a fifth straight record year for the housing industry, the government said yesterday. Economists expected a 1.225 million sales rate for December.

Reports on durable goods orders and unemployment claims two days ago signaled strength in the U.S. economy. Orders at U.S. factories for durable goods last month increased 1.3 percent, the Commerce Department said on Jan. 26. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected a 1 percent December gain. Jobless claims rose by 11,000 to 283,000; economists expected 300,000.

``Today the market showed it was positioned short dollars and today was an unwind,'' Russell LaScala, a currency trader in New York at Deutsche Bank AG, said, referring to the dollar's advance yesterday.

Futures traders increased bets the dollar will fall versus the euro, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a fall in the U.S. currency compared with those on a rise was 37,464 on Jan. 24, compared with 21,211 a week earlier.

Faster Growth Expected

Growth will pick up this quarter, to a 3.8 percent annual rate, and average 3.4 percent this year, according to economists in a Bloomberg survey from Dec. 23 to Jan. 9.

The yen advanced earlier yesterday against the dollar and euro after a report showed Japanese consumer prices had the first back-to-back monthly gain since April 1998. Prices gained 0.1 percent last month from a year earlier, the same as November.

``An end to easy monetary policy is just a matter of time,'' said Nobuo Kihara in the foreign-exchange marketing division at BNP Paribas in Tokyo. The consumer price index ``report gave a reason to buy back the yen.''

Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui on Jan. 26 said Japan will shift policy ``at an appropriate time,'' once the central bank is convinced more than seven years of falling prices has ended. Prime Minster Junichiro Koizumi said yesterday at a press briefing in Tokyo that Japan has yet to ``overcome'' deflation.

The euro rose immediately after a report yesterday showing consumer optimism in Germany climbed to the highest in eight months in January.

GfK's confidence index climbed to 4.6 from last month's revised 4.0, the market-research company said. The index's three components gave readings higher than zero for the first time since May 2001, GfK said.

A separate survey showed Italian business confidence rose to its highest in more than 3 1/2 years as increased orders boosted expectations for production.


To contact the reporter on this story:Joshua Krongold in New York at at [email protected];Michael McDonald in New York at [email protected] Updated: January 28, 2006 08:30 EST

adType = "std"; Category = "03"; HCat = "RNJ8"; Keys = "null"; Width = "3"; Height = "3"; Tile = "2";CallAd(adType, HCat, Width, Height, Tile, Keys, Category); function advertisetext(id) { var IE = (document.getElementById) ? 1 : 0; if (IE) { if (document.getElementById(id).style.fontSize == '16px') { document.getElementById(id).style.fontSize = '11px'; document.getElementById(id).style.color = 'black'; } else { document.getElementById(id).style.fontSize = '16px'; document.getElementById(id).style.color = '#FF9900'; } } } Advertisement: A shocking prediction by Ken Fisher - Get his forecast here!

[BahraiN]

مشكور و يعطيك الف عافية

[متيم اليورو]

شكرأ جزيلا اخى صلاح الدين

[salahedeen]

متيم اليورو]شكرأ جزيلا اخى صلاح الدين



وانا تحت امرك وامر المنتدى والاعضاء